13 August 2024 | 10:54AM BST 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 ON Holding (ONON): First Take: 2Q24 adj. EBITDA +5% beat; FY24 guidance reiterated News: On Holding reported 2Q24 adj. EBITDA of CHF 90.8mn, +5.3% above FactSet consensus of CHF 86.2mn, driven by net sales of CHF 567.7mn, +27.8% yoy and +29.4% cFX (consensus CHF 562mn, +26% yoy and Visible Alpha Consensus Data +30.1% cFX). Group gross margin came in at 59.9%, +40bps yoy (FactSet consensus +60bps yoy to 60.1%), with adj. EBITDA margins of 16% (con ...

13 August 2024 | 6:57PM HKT Ocumension (1477.HK): Earnings Review: 1H in-line with narrower loss; Alcon partnership opportunity in dry eye; Buy 1H product sales in-line; narrower loss with lower spending: 1H revenue of Rmb168mn (+62% y/y, or +18% h/h, vs. GSe of Rmb170mn) was mostly in line with lower product sales of Rmb150mn (vs. GSe of Rmb169mn) given the slower ramp-up of Yutiq due to supply constraints (see our Corporate Day note), which in our view may have contributed to a decreased GPM of 59.2% (vs. ...

13 August 2024 | 2:44PM PDT NCR Atleos (NATL): 20 First Take: Revenue, margins and EPS at or above consensus, with ATMaaS strategy continuing to advance We expect investors to have a neutral-to-positive reaction to NCR Atleos' 2Q 2024 earnings release, its second as a standalone public entity, with EBITDA margins and EPS surpassing consensus expectations, revenue coming in line with the Street and the full-year quide reaffirmed for these metrics. Revenue increased 4% y/y and recurring revenue grew 9%, while ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month price target of R$19 for Natura&Co, indicating an upside potential of 16% from the current price of R$16.38 [16]. Core Insights - Natura&Co reported robust growth in the Natura brand in Brazil, with sales exceeding expectations by 9%, although adjusted EBITDA only beat expectations by 3% due to lower profitability in Latam and weak performance at Avon International [2][3]. - The company continues to face challenges with negative free cash flow of -R$675 million, but management expects to reduce leverage in the second half of 2024 through cash generation and EBITDA growth [3][10]. - The corporate restructuring of Avon Products Inc is a focal point for investors, with potential implications for Natura&Co's operations [3][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Natura&Co Latam revenues grew by 10% year-over-year, driven primarily by the beauty category, despite a 19% decline in the unified representative base [4][6]. - The Natura brand in Brazil saw sales growth accelerate to 15% year-over-year, while Avon brand sales in Brazil dropped by 1% [6][7]. - Adjusted EBITDA margin increased by approximately 85 basis points, primarily due to improved gross margins in the Latam operation [9]. Corporate Restructuring - Avon Products Inc filed for Chapter 11 in the US, with Natura&Co committing to provide US$43 million in debtor-in-possession financing to support Avon during the restructuring process [11][12]. - Natura&Co plans to bid US$125 million to acquire Avon’s operations outside the US, contingent on a court-supervised auction process [12]. Market Outlook - The report highlights the importance of cash generation and working capital management, noting that accounts receivable have increased due to a higher share of Natura Brazil and productivity representatives [3][10]. - Management anticipates improvements in logistics and inventory management in the second half of 2024, which may lead to temporary volatility in service levels [8].

13 August 2024 | 5:05PM EDT Mosaic Co. (MOS): Management meeting highlights Phosphate market optimism and cost initiatives; Buy We hosted a virtual meeting with MOS management today (8/13), including CEO Bruce Bodine, CFO Clint Freeland, and EVP of Commercial Jenny Wang, Overall, we come away encouraged by management's optimism on Phosphate (P) markets and internal production/cost initiatives as we head into the 2H. The discussion focused primarily on MOS' P operations, where management emphasized tight glo ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd. (MLCO) with a 12-month price target of $9.70, indicating an upside potential of 87.6% from the current price of $5.17 [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that MLCO's market share in Macau is expected to improve due to reinvestment in product and service quality, despite facing higher costs [4][6]. - The company has experienced a decline in non-gaming revenue but managed to grow its gaming revenue by 6% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting successful property upgrades and new initiatives [4][5]. - Management is cautiously optimistic about the business outlook, noting improved GGR momentum in late July and August, with daily GGR reaching $653 million in the first two weeks of August [6][7]. - The report revises FY24E-26E EBITDA estimates down by 6% to 5% due to lower margins and GGR trends, but expects EBITDA to reflect market share momentum moving forward [8]. Financial Summary - MLCO's total revenue is projected to grow from $3,775.2 million in 2023 to $5,140.4 million by 2026, with EBITDA increasing from $961.7 million to $1,346.1 million over the same period [3]. - The company reported a net debt of $6.0 billion with a net leverage ratio of 5.3x, indicating stable financial health despite refinancing activities [5][6]. - The report notes that MLCO's GGR market share improved by 0.7 percentage points quarter-over-quarter to 15%, with specific properties showing varied performance [5][7].

13 August 2024 | 2:07PM EDT Midday Market Intelligence: disinflation-nation US stocks are trading higher on Tuesday as investors digest a softer-than-expected July PPI report ahead of tomorrow's CPI release. back to micro? The producer price index (PPI) increased by 0.1% in July, somewhat below expectations, with the PPI excluding food and energy remaining unchanged (vs. consensus +0.2%) and the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services increasing 0.3% (vs. consensus +0.2%) (see "USA: Core Producer Pri ...

13 August 2024 | 10:29AM BRT Latin America Metals & Mining: Good 2024; Leverage Concerns and Weak Capex Execution Remains CSNA3 (Sell) EBITDA of R$2.6B (+35% α/q and +17% γ/γ) was 4% above GSe (+13% vs. Bloomberg consensus) mostly due to stronger steel earnings (beat on cost and product mix). CMIN3 (Sell) EBITDA of R$1.6B (+44% q/q and +47% y/y) came broadly in line with GSe, but 8% above consensus. We expect a slightly positive reaction for both CSN and CMIN. Steel weakness has been driven by a combination ...

13 August 2024 | 8:37AM EDT Market Intelligence: US Morning Update Click "here" to listen to the US Morning Call. Stocks in Asia traded higher Tuesday, led by Japan's Nikkei 225 (+3.5%) as it resumed trading after a long weekend. Mainland China's markets also ended higher, despite weak loan in demand in 2Q (see: "China: PBOC Q2 Surveys: Weaker loan demand; more willingness to spend on travel; muted house price expectations"). Australia's ASX also eked out a minor gain on the back of rebounding business surv ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Carlsberg with a 12-month price target of DKK 1,100, indicating a potential upside of 36.7% from the current price of DKK 804.40 [10][11]. Core Insights - Carlsberg reported strong organic EBIT growth of +4.6% in H1, with a gross margin expansion of +160bps to 46.3%, allowing for a 20% year-on-year increase in marketing spend [1][2]. - The company raised its organic EBIT growth guidance to +4% to +6%, up from a previous range of +1% to +5%, reflecting confidence despite unfavorable weather conditions in Western Europe [2][9]. - The report highlights that Carlsberg's valuation is undemanding, trading at 12.9x CY25 P/E and 8.3x EV/EBITDA, excluding the expected accretion from Britvic [3][9]. Summary by Region Western Europe - Western Europe, accounting for 51% of FY23 sales, experienced a volume decline of -3.0% in Q2 due to poor weather, leading to an organic revenue decline of -1.3% [6]. - The region's organic operating profit grew by +1.0%, supported by higher revenue per hectoliter despite increased marketing costs [6]. Asia - Asia, representing 32% of FY23 sales, saw organic revenue growth of +4.7% in Q2, with beer volumes increasing by +1% [7]. - Despite significant marketing investments, organic operating profit grew by +5.3%, with strong performance in the premium portfolio in China [7]. Central & Eastern Europe and India (CEE&I) - CEE&I, which contributed 18% to FY23 sales, reported total volume growth of +6.0% in Q2, with organic revenue growth of +9.8% [8]. - The region's organic operating profit increased by +14.1%, driven by strong performance in Ukraine and solid growth in the premium portfolio [8].