Viewpoint | Citi Research 12 Aug 2024 03:13:20 ET | 26 pages UK Economics July Inflation Preview – Undershoots now, further questions into August CITI'S TAKE We expect the slew of data this week to show UK disinflation to be broadly on track. Friday's growth data will we think indicate an ongoing, supply-led recovery. We expect the labour market to have continued to soften, although uncertainties around the LFS will still merit caution. On the inflation side, we expect a downside surprise, with services inf ...

Viewpoint | Citi Research 11 Aug 2024 20:07:29 ET | 9 pages European Economics Week Ahead Week of 12 August CITI'S TAKE The data in Europe may continue to play second fiddle to global market developments next week. Nonetheless, a slew of top tier data in the UK – including inflation and labour market releases, merit close attention. ZEW investor expectations, the only relevant Eurozone data out next week, likely turned down in August, on market risk-off moves and global growth concerns. In the Scandies, the ...

Viewpoint | Citi Research 12 Aug 2024 02:00:16 ET | 13 pages The Morning Call The Week Ahead: 12-16 August CITI'S TAKE Jamie Searle AC +44-20-7986-9493 jamie.searle@citi.com We discuss the key macro events for the week ahead, a summary of our latest rates views, and upcoming supply for EMU-11, UK, and the US. Andrea Appeddu Ac +39-02-8906-4316 andrea.appeddu@citi.com Aman Bansal, CFA sc +44-20-7986-1007 aman.bansal@citi.com Jussi Harju, CFA nc +49-69-1366-5655 jussi.harju@citi.com Puja V Sawant AC +91-22-42 ...

Viewpoint | Citi Research 11 Aug 2024 20:45:32 ET | 11 pages Global FX Strategy Still all about risk CITI'S TAKE Recent developments accelerated our bearish view on risk and drove unwinds in crowded FX positions. This creates a cleaner setup into upcoming catalysts but keeps focus squarely on the risk backdrop for G10 FX. In this context, we think US initial claims and retail sales matter more than CPI. Daniel Tobon Ac +1-212-816-8340 daniel.tobon@citi.com Brian Levine AC +1-212-816-6896 brian.levine@citi.c ...

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded Emerging Market (EM) equities to Underweight in a global context due to growing macro headwinds and increased risks associated with the potential re-election of Trump [4][6]. Core Insights - The MSCI EM index is currently about 10% off its highs, with a projected upside of approximately 8% to a target of 1130 by mid-2025, based on an expected 8% EPS growth and flat valuations [4][7]. - The report emphasizes a tilt towards quality in EM country strategy, favoring India and Taiwan while being Underweight on Brazil and downgrading Korea to Neutral [4][10]. - The political landscape in the US, particularly the potential for a Trump 2.0 scenario, poses significant risks for EM equities, especially for countries like China and Brazil, which are more exposed to US trade policies [9][20]. Summary by Sections EM Equity Strategy - The report summarizes top-down views and insights from various strategists, indicating that recent market corrections have led to a more realistic pricing of EPS outcomes in EM [4][5]. - The report suggests that while the worst may be behind, volatility is expected to persist as market positioning has not fully unwound [4][5]. Key Theme: Trump 2.0 - The US political backdrop is fluid, with prediction markets assigning a roughly 50% chance of a Trump win, which could lead to heightened trade policy uncertainty and negatively impact EM equities [9][22]. - The report highlights that approximately 13% of MSCI EM revenues come from the US, with significant exposure in Asia Tech, making markets like India and Mexico appear less vulnerable to Trump-related risks [9][37]. EM Allocation Model - The allocation model reflects a preference for quality and defensiveness, with Overweight positions in the US and specific EM countries, while downgrading others based on macroeconomic conditions and election-related risks [6][10]. - The report indicates a shift towards sectors and regions with strong EPS momentum, particularly in India and Taiwan, while downgrading Korea and Brazil [10][14]. Quantitative Strategy - The report notes that despite the recent sell-off, the MSCI EM is trading at a forward PE of 12x, near its long-term average, suggesting that EM equities remain relatively cheap compared to developed markets [7][46]. - EPS growth forecasts for 2024 are stronger in EM compared to developed markets, with a focus on sectors like technology and basic materials [43][51]. EM Countries: Insights from Local Strategists - Country preferences are adjusted based on EPS momentum and exposure to US economic conditions, with upgrades for Poland and downgrades for China and Brazil [10][14]. - The report emphasizes that while Korea shows EPS recovery, its cyclical characteristics and exposure to Trump risks warrant a Neutral rating [14][69].

CitiFX Wire Market Commentary - FXLM - Intended for Institutional clients only Europe Open - Gentle breeze By Naveen Nair A quieter day for markets in Asia with Japan observing a local holiday. Interbank FX volumes are ~60% lower than 30d averages according to our etraders. DXY trades flat, with JPY down 0.4% on the day though we flag no news behind this. The rest of the G10 FX complex trade in tight ranges. Elsewhere, US stock futures are flat, while cash US treasuries are closed on account of the Japan ho ...

Cheatsheet CitiFX Wire Market Commentary - FXLM - Intended for Institutional clients only Cheatsheet - G10 & EM Week Ahead: Half and half By CitiFX Wire US core CPI should, in part, comfort Fed officials but, in other, keep them squarely focused on labor and economic trends. US retail sales and consumer earnings will be key, as will initial and continuing jobless claims this week. Fedspeak, sprinkled throughout the week, should also be monitored Elsewhere in G10, the RBNZ (Wed) could skew dovish, as might N ...

W BARCLAYS Equity Research 12 August 2024 European Morning Research Summary Company Research Ageas N.V. (AGES.BR) Buzzi SpA (BZU.MI) Freenet (FNTGn.DE) Jungheinrich (JUNG_p.DE) Rightmove PIc (RMV.L) Unipol (UNPI.MI) ASML Holding NV (ASML AS) ENAV (ENAV.MI) Generali (GASI.MI) Lanxess (LXSG.DE) Spire Healthcare Group PLC (SPI.L) Ypsomed Holding AG (YPSN.S) Bechtle (BC8G.DE) Endeavour Mining (EDV.L) GSK plc (GSK.L) Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO) UCB SA (UCB.BR) Industry Research European Banks European Integrated Ene ...

V i e w p o i n t | Prepared for Philip Hu China Economics CITI'S TAKE 11 Aug 2024 21:33:53 ET │ 13 pages Top Questions on Monetary Policy – Takeaways from PBoC's MPR 24Q2 Xiangrong Yu AC +852-2501-2754 xiangrong.yu@citi.com Xinyu Ji AC +852-2501-2792 xinyu.ji@citi.com The PBoC released its Monetary Policy Report (MPR) for 24Q2 last Friday (PBoC, Aug 9). The pro-growth tone was reconfirmed with focus shifting towards countercyclical monetary policies. Yet in our view, the central bank is still walking a tig ...

V i e w p o i n t | Prepared for Philip Hu PH Q2 GDP & BSP Cut in August; CN Deflationary Concerns 11 Aug 2024 23:13:19 ET │ 14 pages CITI'S TAKE EM Asia Economics & Strategy Philippines: Q2 GDP was fairly healthy but not strong enough to delay policy rate cut in August; China: A Seasonal Beat Does Not Ease Deflationary Concerns; Upcoming Events: IN Jul CPI (Citi: 3.8%YY, Mkt: 3.60%, Prior: 5.08%) & IP, GE Current account balance Johanna Chua AC +852-2501-2357 johanna.chua@citi.com Philip Yin Samiran Chakra ...