Investment Rating - The report provides a GDP growth forecast of 4.9% for 2024, indicating a slower growth outlook due to various economic factors [15]. Core Insights - The property sector is experiencing a significant downturn, with sales, starts, and real estate investment (REI) projected to decline by 5-10%, 15-20%, and 5-10% respectively in 2024 [16]. - Consumption recovery remains weak, with offline activities normalizing but overall consumption still below pre-COVID trends, influenced by factors such as income, confidence, and excess savings [17][35]. - Infrastructure fixed asset investment (FAI) is expected to moderate to 5-6% in 2024 from 8% in 2023, reflecting a shift in government support dynamics [18]. - Exports are projected to remain resilient, with nominal exports expected to increase by 3.5% in 2024, supported by robust US growth and ongoing global tech cycles [19]. Economic Indicators Summary - Real GDP growth is forecasted at 4.9% for 2024, with a notable Q1 growth of 5.3% followed by a slowdown to 4.7% in Q2 [15]. - Consumption growth is expected to be 5.1% in 2024, down from 6.4% in 2023, reflecting ongoing challenges in consumer confidence and spending [3]. - Fixed investment growth is projected to stabilize at 3.7% for 2024, consistent with the previous year [3]. - The current account balance is expected to decrease to 1.2% of GDP in 2024, down from 1.4% in 2023 [3]. Sector-Specific Insights - The property sector's downturn is described as the sharpest in history, significantly impacting GDP and local government financing [16][25]. - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to slow down, with a focus on maintaining fiscal support amid weaker local government financing conditions [18]. - Retail sales growth is projected to remain subdued, with key factors such as youth unemployment and cautious consumer sentiment affecting overall spending [35][38]. Policy and Market Dynamics - Major coordinated policy easing measures were implemented in May 2024 to address the property downturn, although the effectiveness of these measures remains to be seen [22]. - The report highlights the importance of addressing inventory destocking in the property sector, with limited progress noted so far [16][25]. - The report emphasizes the need for further policy support to stimulate consumption and investment, particularly in the context of high savings rates and cautious consumer behavior [41].

Global Research and Evidence Lab 13 August 2024 Australian Economic Comment RBA Hauser hawkish: lifts neutral & NAIRU. WPI ticks down to 0.8% q/q, but y/y holds 4.1% RBA Deputy Hauser hawkish: effectively lifts neutral rate & NAIRU estimates RBA Deputy Governor Hauser's speech was on the hawkish side; especially relative to prior comments, which were initially more balanced on the RBA's 'dual mandate' of an inflation target as well as full employment. 1) Hauser characterised inflation as persistent, and hig ...

13 August 2024 | 10:18AM HKT Wiwynn (6669.TW): 2024 Nl +79% YoY, in line; ASIC Servers and General Servers to drive growth in 2H24; Buy Wiwynn delivered in-line 2Q24 results, sustaining strong YoY growth on low base last year (Read more in our results first take). We expect sequential top-line growth in 3Q/4Q24E, up 82%/ 68% YoY, with gross margin at 9.5%, above its historical level of ~8% on continuous NRE (non-recurring engineering) charges on new AI server projects. We expect ASIC (Application Specific I ...

13 August 2024 | 8:06AM BST Valneva SE (VLS.PA): 2024 First Take: Weak Dukoral sales drive topline miss requiring significant step up to meet guidance Valneva reported 2024 earnings with revenue coming in at €38.1m, 13%/11% below GSe/Company-compiled consensus estimates of €43.8mn/€42.7mn driven by product sales which were 13%/8% below (refer to Exhibit 2 for comparison vs Visible Alpha Consensus Data for individual products). Within this, Ixario sales grew 96% YoY (52% QoQ) and were 6%/24% above GSe/Visibl ...

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13 August 2024 | 8:45AM BST 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 UK: June Labour Market—Private Sector Regular Pay in Line with Our Expectations, but Unemployment Rate Comes in Lower BOTTOM LINE: Private sector regular pay growth came in at 5.2% on a three-month year-on-year basis in June, in line with our expectations but slightly above the BoE's August MPR projection. The seasonally adjusted month-on-month pace came in at 0.35%, in line with our forecast and below the 0.50% average pace seen in the first five ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Nihon Kohden with a revised 12-month price target of ¥2,180, down from ¥3,000 [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a need for a rebound in market credibility due to weak Q1 results, leading to a conservative outlook on sales estimates for Japan and China [1][2]. - Despite the challenges, demand for CT/MRI scans in Japan remains positive, and hospitals' capital expenditures are reportedly on track [1]. - The report suggests that the current stock price reflects an operating profit (OP) margin of 7-8%, which is below the forecasted 10.9% for FY3/26, indicating potential upside [1][11]. Summary by Sections Sales and Profit Estimates - The estimated sales compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for Japan has been lowered from 2.8% to 0.8% due to uncertainties surrounding hospital capital expenditures and government reforms [2]. - In China, a negative impact of approximately ¥2 billion per year is anticipated from the government's anti-corruption measures [2]. - EPS estimates have been revised downwards for FY3/25 from ¥102 to ¥82, for FY3/26 from ¥133 to ¥106, and for FY3/27 from ¥162 to ¥132 [2]. Market Dynamics - The shift in medical fee revisions from April to June has delayed capital expenditure decisions by hospitals, with reductions in administrative fees causing further delays [3]. - Stricter standards for calculating premiums for hospitals providing comprehensive care may positively impact demand, but a major rebound is not expected until H1 FY3/25 [3]. Valuation Metrics - The price target of ¥2,180 is based on a FY3/26 EPS estimate of ¥107 and a price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 20.2X, reflecting a 10% discount to pre-pandemic averages [4]. - The stock currently trades at a PER of 20X, which is below the average of 21X during the FY3/23-24 period, indicating that the market may be overly pessimistic [4]. Competitive Landscape - Nihon Kohden's domestic business is expected to achieve an OP margin of 18% in FY3/27, slightly higher than competitor Fukuda Denshi's 19% margin in FY3/24, due to a higher proportion of profitable in-house products [10][11]. - The company has initiated a comprehensive program to revamp its earnings structure, which is crucial for improving profitability [10].

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Freightways Still in neutral Retain Neutral following recent re-rating with... FRW's short-term misvaluation has materially reduced following its re-rating of 20% over the last six weeks with expectations of earlier monetary easing lifting investor appetite in NZ cyclical stocks. Looking forward, FRW investment case is now reliant on a return to attractive (double-digit) earnings growth. While we expect EPS to lift in FY25e it is likely to be mostly contain ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Equities Spot On SA Miners—momentum & yield if spot prevails South Africa Mining 8% downside risk to 12M forward consensus earnings, on average If spot commodity prices prevail, we calculate upside risk to 12M forward consensus earnings for the gold miners (+32%) and the SA diversifieds (+1%) on an average market cap-weighted basis, while we calculate downside risk to for the PGM miners (- 15%) and dual-listeds (-21%) on an average market cap-weighted basis ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China CSSC Holdings is "Buy" with a price target of RMB 50.00 as of 12 August 2024 [10]. Core Insights - Yangzijiang Shipbuilding reported H124 results with a revenue growth of 15% year-over-year (YoY) and a gross profit margin (GPM) improvement of 8 percentage points YoY [1]. - The company achieved a strong order win of USD 8.5 billion in H124, which is 188% of its full-year goal for 2024, resulting in a total order book of USD 20 billion, equating to a duration of 4.6 years [1][2]. - The CEO indicated that while the upcycle for container shipbuilding may have peaked, there is an expectation for increased orders for energy shipping vessels, such as product tankers and LNG carriers [2]. - The shipbuilding margin is expected to remain stable, with Yangzijiang being the shipyard with the highest margins in the market, assuming no significant increases in steel prices or RMB appreciation [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Yangzijiang Shipbuilding's H124 revenue grew by 15% YoY and 2% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) [1]. - The GPM improved by 8 percentage points YoY and 1 percentage point QoQ [1]. Order Book and Market Outlook - The total order book stands at USD 20 billion, with a duration of 4.6 years, indicating strong demand and longer delivery times accepted by shipowners [1]. - The CEO mentioned that the company would maintain flexibility for high-margin orders despite not revising the new order guidance [2]. Margin Stability - Yangzijiang Shipbuilding is expected to maintain elevated GPM levels, supported by a strong order backlog and competitive bidding for shipbuilding slots [3].