President Donald Trump isn't backing down from his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, even as an increasing number of fellow Republicans express a desire to cool tensions. "Well, he's billions of dollars over budget," Trump told reporters at the White House Tuesday morning before departing for a trip to Michigan. "So, he's either incompetent or he's crooked. I don't know what he is, but he certainly doesn't do a very good job."On Sunday, Powell released an extraordinary video statement, conf ...

The JPMorgan chief reiterated his support of the Fed after the DOJ investigation. ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **FX swap market** and its dynamics, particularly the **FX-Sofr basis** and its implications for global liquidity and investment strategies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Changing Global Liquidity Outlook** - Global central banks are diverging in their balance sheet management, impacting liquidity. The Federal Reserve has ceased quantitative tightening and is increasing its balance sheet through bill purchases, while the Bank of England and Bank of Japan are reducing their pace of QT. The European Central Bank is committed to passive QT for the foreseeable future, affecting the FX swap market [1][4][7]. 2. **Decline of US Dollar Premium** - The US dollar premium in the FX swap market, measured by the FX-Sofr basis, has declined in recent years, indicating a shift in demand dynamics [2][15]. 3. **Record High FX Swap Turnover** - Daily average OTC FX swap turnover reached a record high of **USD 4.0 trillion** in April 2025, with the US dollar accounting for **USD 3.6 trillion** of this turnover, reflecting its dominance in the market [3][19][20]. 4. **Market Participants and Their Roles** - Key participants in the FX swap market include banks, dealers, institutional investors, and central banks. Banks and dealers accounted for **80%** of daily turnover, while institutional investors contributed **USD 349 billion** [27][28]. 5. **Drivers of FX-Sofr Basis** - Six main drivers of the FX-Sofr basis were identified: - Institutional investors seeking FX hedges - Regulatory requirements impacting banks' balance sheets - US bank reserves influenced by monetary policy - Bank treasuries managing liquidity needs - Reserve managers' cash deposits - Central bank US dollar swap lines providing liquidity support [4][34]. 6. **Institutional Investor Behavior** - Euro area institutional investors increased their holdings of non-euro area debt securities from **€2.6 trillion** in December 2022 to **€3.1 trillion** in September 2025, primarily driven by US securities [43]. 7. **Regulatory Impact on FX-Sofr Basis** - Basel III regulations have increased capital requirements for banks, leading to window dressing activities that typically widen the FX-Sofr basis around key reporting dates [61][66]. 8. **Central Bank Liquidity Swap Lines** - Central bank USD liquidity swap lines help alleviate strains in cross-currency funding markets, reducing widening pressures on the FX-Sofr basis during periods of increased USD demand [101][103]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Liquidity Trends** - The FX swap market is characterized by a high concentration of turnover at the very front-end of the curve, with **68%** of turnover occurring for maturities of up to seven days [29]. - **Arbitrage Opportunities** - Dealers may exploit arbitrage opportunities between different repo markets, which can influence the FX-Sofr basis depending on the relative costs of borrowing in USD versus EUR [88][90]. - **Impact of US Bank Reserves** - Changes in US bank reserves can significantly impact the availability of USD funding, with a surplus putting tightening pressure on the FX-Sofr basis and a shortage leading to widening pressure [75][76]. - **Japanese Institutional Investor Trends** - Japanese institutional investors show weak appetite for FX-hedged foreign bond investments, primarily due to a negative JPY FX-Sofr basis [48]. - **UK Institutional Investor Behavior** - UK insurance and pension funds have seen a decline in holdings of non-UK debt securities, reflecting a cautious approach amid rising yields [53][56]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the FX swap market's dynamics, participant behaviors, and the broader implications for global liquidity and investment strategies.

Core Viewpoint - Jerome Powell, the chair of the US Federal Reserve, is facing a criminal investigation instigated by the Trump administration, which he has publicly stated he will not back down from [2][12][14] Group 1: Powell's Position and Response - Powell has emphasized his commitment to the Federal Reserve's independence, stating he has served under both Republican and Democratic administrations without political bias [3][6] - He has faced ongoing pressure from the Trump administration to lower interest rates, which he has resisted, highlighting the importance of maintaining the Fed's autonomy [10][12] - The criminal investigation is perceived by Powell as a pretext for political pressure, indicating a significant threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve [12][13][14] Group 2: Economic Context and Performance - Powell has been recognized for his management of the economy during challenging times, including the COVID-19 pandemic and rising inflation, achieving a "soft landing" by reducing inflation from a peak of 9.1% in summer 2022 to 2.3% by April [8] - The unemployment rate has remained steady at 4.2%, showcasing Powell's ability to navigate economic challenges while maintaining employment levels [8] - The Federal Reserve was established to operate independently from political influence, a principle Powell has defended throughout his tenure [6][7]

President Donald Trump's search to replace Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has taken a major turn in the new year.On Sunday, Powell confirmed an explosive report that he is facing a criminal investigation related to his prior testimony to Congress about the $2.5 billion renovation to the Fed's headquarters. In a video statement, Powell said that the probe was in retaliation for his decision to ignore Trump's wishes on rate cuts."The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve s ...

分组1 - The article critiques Jay Powell's tenure as Fed chairman, highlighting his failure to meet inflation targets and suggesting his actions were politically motivated [1][2][3] - There are allegations of insider trading and ethical breaches among other Fed officials, but Powell is not directly implicated in criminal activities [2][3] - The article notes that Republican senators will not confirm a new Fed chairman until existing subpoenas are resolved, indicating a political stalemate [4] 分组2 - Despite the controversies surrounding the Fed, the market reaction has been muted, with the 10-year Treasury auction performing well and major indices like the S&P and Dow reaching all-time highs [5] - The economy is reported to be growing at rates of 5% or better, potentially reaching 6% or 7% due to tax cuts and deregulation, alongside significant productivity growth of over 4% [6] - The article emphasizes that the U.S. economy is currently experiencing a positive oil shock, contributing to its status as the hottest economy globally [7]

Hello everyone. The Fed chairman is under fire. Critics are screaming lawfare. Trump wants to cap credit card interest rates. And the political leaders, they're running the economy hot, hot, hot. [music] We are live today from the desk of Anthony Papliano. [music] Before we get into today's episode, I need your help. Go ahead and hit that subscribe button. Help us get to our goal of 1 million subscribers. People are saying we can't do it, but with your help, we're going to achieve our goal. Hit the subscrib ...

President Trump's campaign to exert more control over the Federal Reserve ramped up over the weekend. Here are the basics on the situation. ...

A simmering feud between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve reached a boiling point this weekend as the administration opened a criminal investigation into Chair Jerome Powell. What began as a disagreement over interest rate policy has evolved into an unprecedented confrontation, posing the greatest challenge of Powell’s eight-year leadership of the Federal Reserve.The dispute has now reached Capitol Hill, where congressional Republicans — including some close allies of the Trump administratio ...

Welcome back everyone. On today's episode, J. Pal, the Fed chair, is going after the president because he believes the president is going after him through the Department of Justice. J. Pal released this unprecedented 2-minute video detailing out how he's under investigation by the Department of Justice and even being threatened with indictments, which he believes is politically motivated. We'll be discussing, breaking it down, looking at the actual data, looking at what the Department of Justice is actuall ...