Core Insights - Upstart is an innovator in the financial services industry with an AI-powered lending platform that enhances creditworthiness assessment, leading to increased approval rates and controlled default risks [1] - The stock has shown significant volatility but has started to regain investor confidence, with a notable increase in value over the past three years [2][4] Performance Overview - Since July 31, 2022, Upstart's stock has surged by 250%, transforming a $1,000 investment into $3,500, despite currently trading 78% below its peak established in October 2021 [4] - The company has demonstrated meaningful financial improvements, with a 102% year-over-year increase in transaction volume and a 67% revenue gain in Q1 2025 [5] Market Valuation - Upstart shares are currently trading at a price-to-sales ratio of 10.9, indicating growing market optimism, but this high valuation introduces potential downside risk if the company fails to meet earnings expectations [7]

Core Viewpoint - Upstart Holdings, Inc. is expected to show significant growth in its upcoming earnings report, with a notable increase in both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue compared to the previous year [2][3]. Group 1: Recent Performance - Upstart Holdings, Inc. closed at $79.22, down 3.08% from the previous trading session, underperforming the S&P 500's loss of 1.6% [1] - Over the past month, the company's shares have appreciated by 10.73%, outperforming the Finance sector's gain of 0.8% and the S&P 500's gain of 2.25% [1]. Group 2: Upcoming Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is scheduled for August 5, 2025, with an expected EPS of $0.27, reflecting a 258.82% increase from the prior-year quarter [2]. - Revenue is forecasted to be $225.3 million, indicating a 76.52% growth compared to the same quarter of the previous year [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Year Projections - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are projected at $1.58 per share, representing an increase of 890% from the prior year [3]. - Revenue for the fiscal year is estimated at $1.02 billion, showing a growth of 59.46% compared to the previous year [3]. Group 4: Analyst Estimates and Market Sentiment - Recent changes to analyst estimates indicate a positive outlook for Upstart Holdings, reflecting analysts' confidence in the company's performance and profit potential [3]. - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has remained stagnant over the past month, and the company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [5]. Group 5: Valuation Metrics - Upstart Holdings, Inc. is currently traded at a Forward P/E ratio of 51.8, which is a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 12.03 [6]. - The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, to which Upstart belongs, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 70, placing it in the top 29% of over 250 industries [6].

In the latest close session, Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) was down 1.9% at $81.74. This change lagged the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.37%. On the other hand, the Dow registered a loss of 0.74%, and the technology- centric Nasdaq decreased by 0.03%. Coming into today, shares of the company had gained 13.54% in the past month. In that same time, the Finance sector gained 1.34%, while the S&P 500 gained 2.68%. The upcoming earnings release of Upstart Holdings, Inc. will be of great interest to investors. The co ...

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price. The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on ...

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) closed the most recent trading day at $82.70, moving -1.7% from the previous trading session. This change lagged the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.07%. Meanwhile, the Dow lost 0.7%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, added 0.18%. Shares of the company have appreciated by 34.74% over the course of the past month, outperforming the Finance sector's gain of 4.82%, and the S&P 500's gain of 5.71%.The investment community will be paying close attention to the earnings performance of Up ...

Company Performance - Upstart Holdings, Inc. closed at $78.36, reflecting a +1.01% change from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's 0.01% loss [1] - The company's shares have increased by 31.31% over the past month, while the Finance sector and S&P 500 gained 4.74% and 5.37%, respectively [1] Upcoming Earnings - Upstart Holdings, Inc. is set to announce its earnings on August 5, 2025, with projected earnings of $0.27 per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 258.82% [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is $225.3 million, representing a 76.52% increase from the previous year [2] Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are projected at $1.58 per share and revenue at $1.02 billion, showing increases of +890% and +59.46% from the prior year [3] Analyst Estimates - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Upstart Holdings, Inc. reflect evolving short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating a favorable outlook on business health and profitability [4] Zacks Rank and Valuation - Upstart Holdings, Inc. currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate remaining steady over the past month [6] - The company is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 49.16, significantly higher than the industry average of 12.66, indicating a premium valuation [7] Industry Context - The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, part of the Finance sector, ranks in the top 37% of all industries according to the Zacks Industry Rank [7] - The top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1, highlighting the competitive positioning of the industry [8]

Group 1 - Upstart Holdings, Inc. operates at the intersection of fintech and AI, indicating strong growth potential in these sectors [1] - The company is positioning itself to leverage the combination of these technologies for future success [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of core values such as excellence, integrity, transparency, and respect for long-term success in the investment landscape [1]

Core Insights - Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) has experienced a significant rebound driven by investor optimism regarding its AI-driven lending platform and strategic execution [1] - The company is disrupting traditional credit models by utilizing machine learning for enhanced consumer loan underwriting [1] Valuation Concerns - Upstart currently has a Value Score of F, indicating potential overvaluation, with a forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 5.23, which is above the industry average of 3.86 [2] - This valuation premium has led to increased caution among investors, raising questions about the justification for the stock's recent surge [2] Technological Advancements - Upstart is reshaping credit underwriting with its proprietary AI model that incorporates education, employment, and financial behavior, moving beyond traditional FICO scores [3] - In Q1 2025, 92% of loans on its platform were fully automated, resulting in improved efficiency and borrower satisfaction, with conversion rates increasing from 14% to 19% year over year [3][9] Diversification Efforts - The company is diversifying into new verticals such as auto loans, HELOCs, and small-dollar credit, with some segments showing robust growth [4] - Partnerships with credit unions, like All In Credit Union, demonstrate Upstart's appeal in traditional finance [4] - The focus on super-prime borrowers, now constituting 32% of originations, aids in securing low-cost funding and managing credit risk effectively [4] Challenges Faced - Elevated interest rates and a decline in contribution margins are significant challenges for the company [5] - The increasing super-prime borrower mix, while enhancing credit quality, leads to lower take rates due to heightened competition [5] - Margins in newer products like HELOC and auto lending are expected to mature over time, with initial take rates being modest due to early-stage scaling [5] - Macroeconomic uncertainty and trade tensions further complicate the company's outlook [5] Market Performance - Upstart's shares have risen by 37.8% quarter to date, outperforming both the broader industry and the S&P 500 Index [12] - The full-year 2025 consensus EPS estimate has been slightly revised downward, while the 2026 estimate has been adjusted upward [13]

Group 1 - Upstart Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:UPST) is experiencing a breakout above its June closing highs, surpassing its 200-day moving average and year-to-date anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP) [1] - The stock has bounced near peak put open interest at the 50-strike and is now breaking above the $55 pivot point from a November earnings gap, which has previously acted as both support and resistance [1] - The 65-strike call option is set to expire next week, potentially leading to higher prices as shorts begin to cover, with over 25% of UPST's total available float sold short [2] Group 2 - The Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) for UPST is in the 10th percentile of its annual range, indicating that options traders can acquire premiums at a relative bargain [2] - A recommended call option has a leverage ratio of 3.7, suggesting it will double in value with a 29.1% move in the underlying equity [3]

Group 1 - Upstart Holdings, Inc. closed at $63.35, with a +1.46% increase, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.8% [1] - Over the past month, Upstart's shares have risen by 32.82%, significantly exceeding the Finance sector's gain of 2.69% and the S&P 500's gain of 5.12% [1] Group 2 - The upcoming earnings disclosure for Upstart is projected to show an EPS of $0.27, a 258.82% increase year-over-year, and revenue of $226.12 million, reflecting a 77.17% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2] - For the entire year, Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $1.56 per share and revenue of $1.01 billion, indicating increases of +880% and +58.99% respectively compared to the previous year [3] Group 3 - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Upstart indicate positive sentiment regarding the company's business and profitability [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which includes estimate changes, has shown that 1 rated stocks have generated an average annual return of +25% since 1988, with Upstart currently holding a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [5][6] Group 4 - Upstart is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 40.03, which is a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 11.65 [7] - The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, part of the Finance sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 91, placing it in the top 37% of over 250 industries [7][8]