Trade Dynamics - China's share of US imports decreased to 7% in May, the lowest since 2001 [1] - This represents a decline from approximately 15% last year [1] - The downward trend began with the US-China trade war in 2018 [1] - China's share of US imports was over 21% before the trade war [1]

5月份中国商品占美国进口份额降至7.1%，比例为2001年以来最低。 https://t.co/PN1hFG7gjw外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):美国5月自中国进口商品环比减少26.3%，对中国出口环比减少19.9%。 ...

Western nations are racing to break their dependence on China for critical minerals. An aging smelter in Australia could be a test case in how much governments are willing to spend to catch up. https://t.co/3pTC8LQSta ...

- The Vietnam deal tells us that Trump is serious about tariffs. That if there was any thought that, you know, maybe he was going to postpone, postpone, postpone, and then ultimately, except for China, countries really weren't going to face tariffs. I think we have a lot more reason to be skeptical of that potential outcome.- We have a lot of great things going, and we're getting along with countries, but some will be disappointed because they're gonna have to pay tariffs. - According to Donald Trump's post ...

美国5月自中国进口商品环比减少26.3%，对中国出口环比减少19.9%。 ...

Fiscal Policy & Tax Bill Impact - A tax bill is expected by July 4th, crucial for the President's agenda [2] - The tax bill aims to offset the negative economic impact of tariffs, particularly through business tax cuts, including expensing factories, capital goods, and R&D equipment [3] - Consumers can anticipate significant tax refunds in February, March, and April due to the child credit, standard deduction, and increased SALT deduction [4] - The passage of the tax bill will likely lead to the raising of the debt ceiling, requiring the Treasury to issue debt [6] - The central fiscal policy is designed to "sterilize" any adverse effects from tariffs [8] Trade Policy & Tariffs - Tariffs are expected to increase slightly, supported by the fiscal policy cushion [10] - Previously, the tariff on China was about 145%, but currently stands at approximately 55% (35% plus 20% from the first term) [13] - The Trump administration aims to reduce transshipments by making it more expensive to reroute goods through other countries [14] - Mexico and Canada are expected to benefit from the trade policies, with supply chains potentially moving closer to home [14][16] - A 10% tariff exists on every country in the world except Mexico and Canada [16] Investment Strategy - Investors should focus on how the Treasury Secretary will fund the US government, with expectations of increased short-term Treasury bill issuance [7] - Financial deregulation is anticipated following the debt ceiling resolution [7]

Trade Agreement & Tariffs - US and Vietnam reached a trade deal, avoiding higher tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the US [1] - A 20% tariff will be imposed on Vietnamese exports to the US [1] - A 40% levy will be placed on goods deemed to be trans-shipped (goods with components from other countries routed through Vietnam) [1] - The new US levy on Vietnam is lower than the initially announced 46% but double the 10% universal base rate [2] Potential Risks & China's Role - Risks are still tilted to the downside for Vietnam, according to Bloomberg Economics analysis [2] - China might retaliate despite its trade truths with the US, potentially impacting Vietnam's economy [3] - China's retaliatory moves could have an outsized impact on Vietnam's economy, given its position as Vietnam's largest trading partner and a key source of inputs for domestic production [3] - US efforts to forge deals could isolate Chinese firms from global supply chains, causing increasing wariness from China [3]

President Donald Trump’s new trade deal with Vietnam sends a clear signal about where US tariffs on Chinese goods might ultimately land, as talks between Washington and Beijing continue following their recent truce. https://t.co/og2TaE1pkh ...

President Donald Trump’s two-tiered trade deal with Vietnam aims squarely at practices China has long used to skirt US tariffs https://t.co/M2kW4F4YXz ...

Welcome to Inside. President Trump says the U.S. has reached a trade deal with Vietnam, giving full market access to American companies while slapping a 20% tariff on all Vietnamese imports. This deal would be the third following framework agreements with the UK and China ahead of Trump's July nine deadline.For more details on the deal, let's bring in Vietnam Bureau Chief Francesca Stevens. Francesca. Well, 20% is lower than 46, but is still very high.What do we know about this deal. Yeah, that's right. Wel ...