Core Insights - The article discusses the investment positions held by analysts in specific companies, indicating a bullish sentiment towards UPST, SOFI, and AFRM [1] Group 1 - Analysts have disclosed beneficial long positions in UPST, SOFI, and AFRM, suggesting confidence in these stocks [1] - The article emphasizes that the opinions expressed are personal and not influenced by external compensation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Upstart Holdings Inc reported adjusted fourth-quarter earnings of 46 cents per share, slightly below the estimated 47 cents, while revenue exceeded expectations [1] Group 1: Earnings and Revenue - The adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter were 46 cents, missing the consensus estimate of 47 cents [1] - Revenue for the fourth quarter surpassed estimates, indicating a positive trend in sales despite the earnings miss [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Shares of Upstart Holdings Inc are down 15.6%, trading at $32.88, and have decreased by 48% over the past 12 months [1][2] - The stock is currently trading below its descending 100-day moving average and is close to its 18-month low of $31.40 [2] Group 3: Analyst Reactions - Analysts have issued three price-target cuts, with Truist reducing its target from $59 to $49, while the 12-month consensus price target remains at $60.33, representing a 79.4% premium to current levels [1] Group 4: Options Market Activity - The call/put volume ratio for Upstart is 2.87, indicating a higher-than-usual appetite for bearish bets compared to bullish ones [3] - The stock's put/call open interest ratio of 1.15 is in the 100th percentile of its annual range, suggesting a significant preference for call options among short-term traders [4] - Over 19,000 calls and 12,000 puts have been traded today, with the February 30 call being the most popular contract [4]

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Core Insights - Upstart Holdings, Inc. reported a revenue of $296.09 million for the quarter ended December 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 35.2% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $0.46, up from $0.26 in the same quarter last year, although it fell short of the consensus estimate of $0.47 by 1.6% [1] - The revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $288.47 million, resulting in a positive surprise of 2.64% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Transaction volume reached $3.2 million, surpassing the average estimate of $2.96 million from three analysts [4] - Revenue from fees, net, was reported at $265.22 million, exceeding the four-analyst average estimate of $262.3 million, marking a year-over-year increase of 33.1% [4] - Total interest income, interest expense, and fair value adjustments, net, amounted to $30.87 million, compared to the average estimate of $26.07 million from four analysts [4] - Revenue from servicing and other fees, net, was $42.94 million, slightly below the two-analyst average estimate of $45.08 million, with a year-over-year change of 28.1% [4] - Revenue from platform and referral fees, net, was reported at $222.28 million, exceeding the average estimate of $217.23 million from two analysts, representing a year-over-year increase of 34.1% [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Upstart's shares have returned -14.1%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite remained unchanged [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

分组1 - Upstart Holdings, Inc. reported quarterly earnings of $0.46 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.47 per share, but showing an increase from $0.26 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of -1.60% [1] - The company posted revenues of $296.09 million for the quarter ended December 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.64%, and up from $218.96 million year-over-year [2] - Upstart has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters, indicating a trend of positive performance in revenue estimates as well [2] 分组2 - The stock has underperformed the market, losing about 11.2% since the beginning of the year compared to the S&P 500's gain of 1.7% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $0.54 on revenues of $257.77 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.65 on revenues of $1.24 billion [7] - The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, to which Upstart belongs, is currently in the top 27% of Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of $1.04 billion, representing a 64% increase from the previous year, with Q4 revenue reaching approximately $296 million, up 35% year-over-year [23][25][29] - The net income for Q4 was approximately $19 million, a significant turnaround from a loss of $2.8 million in the same quarter last year [16][28] - Adjusted EBITDA for the full year was $230 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22%, compared to 2% the previous year [29][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Personal loan originations grew by 75% year-over-year, while auto and home loan originations increased fivefold year-over-year [9][16] - Total loan origination dollars in Q4 grew by 52% year-over-year, with personal loans growing 41% in its 12th year of operation [16][9] - The average loan size increased to approximately $7,000, reflecting a higher mix of non-personal loan products [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported that 70% of funding for auto and home loans originated in Q4 came from third-party partners, indicating a shift towards a more diversified funding model [10][24] - The volume of loan transactions across the platform reached approximately 456,000, up 86% from the prior year [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage AI to transform access to credit, projecting a compound annual growth rate of 35% over the next three years [11][32] - The focus for 2026 includes increasing market share in auto and home lending, with expectations of over $100 million in fee revenue from these secured products [30][31] - The company is evolving its financial guidance approach to emphasize annual outlooks and provide more frequent updates on origination volumes [29][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the company's position, stating that it has emerged from a multi-year rebuild and is now stronger than ever [10][11] - The company anticipates continued growth in its core personal loan business while also expanding into larger markets for secured products [30][31] - Management noted that the average return of the last 12 quarterly vintages of loans exceeds that of U.S. Treasuries by 608 basis points, indicating strong credit performance [18] Other Important Information - The company has undergone a leadership transition, with Paul Gu set to become the new CEO, while Dave Girouard will continue as Executive Chairman [5][6] - The company has launched new models and technology updates that have improved loan performance and reduced default rates [19][20] Q&A Session Summary Question: How did the company manage to reduce balance sheet loans while experiencing strong growth in autos and HELOCs? - Management indicated that the reduction in balance sheet loans was part of a strategy to incubate new products and align with third-party funding, achieving a significant portion of funding from external partners [35][36] Question: How much conservatism is built into the UMI guidance? - Management clarified that the UMI guidance is based on their best estimate of consumer risk and does not imply conservatism or aggression [38][39] Question: What factors are influencing the expected decline in EBITDA margins for 2026? - Management explained that the decline is due to a changing mix towards larger secured products with lower take rates and a longer-term view on customer lifetime value [42][44] Question: What is the current health of the consumer credit market? - Management reported that consumer health is stabilizing, with UMI values indicating a return to pre-COVID normalization [51][52] Question: How does the company view the long-term market share opportunity in auto and home lending? - Management expressed confidence in achieving significant market share in these categories, driven by AI-enabled lending capabilities [54][56]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of approximately $1.04 billion, representing a 64% increase from the previous year, with fee revenue reaching $950 million, up 64% as well [23][29] - The net income for Q4 was approximately $19 million, a significant improvement from a loss of $2.8 million in the same quarter last year [16][28] - The adjusted EBITDA margin for the full year was 22%, compared to just 2% the previous year, reflecting strong operational leverage [29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Personal loan originations grew by 75% year-on-year, while auto and home loan originations increased fivefold year-on-year [9][16] - The average loan size rose to approximately $7,000, a 5% increase from the prior quarter, driven by a higher mix of non-personal loan products [27] - The contribution margin for Q4 was 53%, down 4 percentage points from the prior quarter, reflecting a strategic shift towards long-term customer value [27][30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a total of approximately 456,000 loan transactions in Q4, an 86% increase from the previous year [26] - The Upstart Macro Index (UMI) averaged around 1.4 for most of the past year, indicating a stable consumer risk environment [18][32] - The company expects to maintain a compound annual growth rate of 35% from 2025 to 2028, with a target adjusted EBITDA margin of around 25% by 2028 [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to solidify its position as a leader in AI-powered lending, focusing on expanding market share in auto and home lending segments [11][56] - A strategic shift towards prioritizing customer lifetime value over immediate take rates is expected to enhance long-term profitability [30][68] - The company plans to enhance transparency by providing monthly transaction volume updates, allowing investors to better gauge performance trends [12][59] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the company's growth trajectory, citing a strong foundation built over the past years and improved AI capabilities [10][11] - The leadership transition is seen as a positive step, with the new CEO emphasizing the importance of technology in driving future growth [5][15] - The company anticipates that economic factors such as tax refunds and looser monetary policy will positively impact consumer demand for loans [64] Other Important Information - The company has successfully reduced its balance sheet loans by 20% in Q4, with a significant portion of new product originations funded by third parties [9][25] - The leadership team has undergone changes, with new appointments aimed at strengthening the company's strategic direction [15][33] Q&A Session Summary Question: How did the company manage to reduce balance sheet loans while experiencing strong growth in autos and HELOCs? - Management indicated that the reduction in balance sheet loans was part of a strategy to incubate new products, with 70% of these products now funded by third parties [36][37] Question: How much conservatism is built into the UMI guidance? - The company clarified that the UMI guidance is based on their best estimate of consumer risk, without labeling it as conservative or aggressive [39] Question: What factors are influencing the expected decline in EBITDA margins for 2026? - Management explained that the decline is due to a mix shift towards larger secured products with lower take rates and a focus on long-term customer value [43][45] Question: What is the current health of the private credit partnerships? - The company reported that their private credit partners are performing well, with strong diligence on credit quality [48] Question: How does the company view the consumer health and its impact on loan demand? - Management noted that consumer health is stabilizing post-COVID, with positive trends in UMI indicating a return to normalcy [52][53] Question: What is the company's perspective on the personal loan market and potential saturation? - The company believes it is gaining market share in personal loans and is focused on competitive advantages rather than overall market growth [61][62] Question: How is the company planning to engage borrowers during the repayment period? - Management acknowledged that there is significant potential for improving customer engagement and cross-selling additional products [83]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved total revenue of approximately $1.04 billion, a 64% increase from 2024, with fee revenue reaching $950 million, exceeding guidance [22][28] - The net income for Q4 was approximately $19 million, a significant improvement from a loss of $2.8 million in the same quarter last year [14][27] - Adjusted EBITDA for the year was $230 million, representing a 22% margin, compared to just 2% the previous year [22][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Loan originations grew by 52% year-over-year in Q4, with personal loans increasing by 41% and new products like auto and home loans growing significantly [13][14] - The company reduced loans on its balance sheet by 20% in Q4, indicating a shift towards third-party funding for new products [8][24] - The average loan size increased to approximately $7,000, reflecting a growing mix of non-personal loan products [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a transaction volume of approximately 456,000 loans in Q4, up 86% from the previous year [25] - The average return of the last 12 quarterly vintages of loans exceeded U.S. Treasuries by 608 basis points, showcasing strong credit performance [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to establish itself as a leader in AI-powered lending, projecting a compound annual growth rate of 35% over the next three years [10][32] - A focus on expanding into secured products like auto and home loans is expected to contribute over $100 million in fee revenue in 2026 [30][31] - The company is evolving its financial guidance approach to emphasize annual outlooks and provide more frequent updates on origination volumes [29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's position, stating that it has emerged from a multi-year rebuild and is now stronger than ever [9][12] - The company anticipates continued growth in its core personal loan business while also scaling up new secured product categories [30][32] - Management noted that the health of consumers is stabilizing, with UMI values indicating a return to pre-COVID normalization [53] Other Important Information - The company has undergone a leadership transition, with Paul Gu becoming the new CEO, while Dave Girouard remains as Executive Chairman [4][5] - The company launched significant model updates in Q4, enhancing its AI capabilities and improving loan performance metrics [17][18] Q&A Session Summary Question: How did the company manage to reduce balance sheet loans while experiencing strong growth in autos and HELOCs? - Management indicated that the reduction in balance sheet loans was part of a strategy to incubate new products and align with third-party funding, achieving liftoff in these areas [36][37] Question: How much conservatism is built into the UMI guidance? - Management clarified that the UMI guidance is based on their best estimate of consumer risk and does not imply conservatism or aggression [39] Question: What factors are influencing the expected decline in EBITDA margins for 2026? - Management explained that the decline is due to a changing mix towards larger secured products with lower take rates and a long-term view on customer lifetime value [43][45] Question: What is the current health and appetite for consumer credit among funding partners? - Management reported that their partners are performing well and have a steady appetite for credit, with new relationships being developed in secured segments [48][49] Question: How does the company view the personal loan market and its growth potential? - Management emphasized that they focus on gaining market share rather than overall market growth, and they believe their competitive product offerings will continue to drive growth [61][62]

Core Insights - Upstart Holdings, Inc. reported strong fourth-quarter earnings, surpassing both revenue and earnings estimates, leading to a rise in stock price [1][2]. Financial Performance - Quarterly earnings were reported at 17 cents per share, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of 15 cents by 11.84% [2]. - Quarterly revenue reached $296.09 million, beating the Street estimate of $288.67 million and showing a significant increase from $218.964 million in the same period last year [2]. Growth Metrics - In 2025, Upstart achieved a remarkable 86% growth in originations and a 64% increase in revenues, while only increasing headcount by 18% [2]. - The company highlighted that auto and home originations grew fivefold in 2025, with further acceleration noted in Q4 [3]. Future Outlook - For fiscal 2026, Upstart anticipates revenue of $1.4 billion, which is above the analyst estimate of $1.27 billion [3]. - Following the earnings report, Upstart's stock price increased by 1.90%, reaching $39.73 in extended trading [3].

This presentation contains "forward-looking" statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, including but not limited to, information or predictions concerning our future financial performance, including our financial outlook for Q4 2025 and the full fiscal year 2025 under the heading "Outlook" and management's estimates under the heading "Marketplace update," projected growth and other strategies, b ...