点击 上方 硬AI 关注我们 硬·AI 作者 | 张雅琦 市场需求并非撤退，而是"暂时的暂停"。根据麦肯锡公司最新的模型预测(不包括关税影响)， 未来五到七 年数据中心市场预计将保持20%至25%的增长范围，但逐年之间增长率会有波动。 "增长不会是线性的，"麦肯锡高级合伙人Pankaj Sachdeva表示，他研究数据中心发展并预计会有起伏。 分析指出，AI整体资本支出依然强劲，市场需求并非撤退，而是"暂时的暂停"。根据麦肯锡的预测，未来五到七年数据中 心市场预计将保持20%至25%的增长范围，但逐年之间增长率会有波动。 编辑 | 硬 AI 当微软上个月取消了在俄亥俄州的数据中心计划，加之报道称亚马逊云服务正在撤销部分人工智能数据中 心项目，市场迅速陷入了对数据中心热潮是否已经结束的焦虑。 然而，担忧或许过头了，有迹象显示，AI整体资本支出依然强劲。 "我们继续看到AI部署在数据中心市场加速扩展，强劲的需求信号强化了我们对近期和长期增长的信 心，"总部位于俄亥俄州的数据中心供应商Vertiv的CEO Giordano Albertazzi在上周的财报电话会议上表 示。该公司股价上周上涨了22%。 01 科技巨 ...

Core Viewpoint - Vertiv Holdings Co. reported strong first-quarter 2025 earnings, driven by robust demand for AI infrastructure, leading to a significant stock price increase and raised sales forecasts [2][11][14]. Financial Performance - Net sales for Q1 2025 reached $2.036 billion, a 24% year-over-year increase, surpassing the $1.94 billion consensus estimate [2][3]. - Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $0.64, a 49% increase from Q1 2024, exceeding the $0.62 analyst consensus [3]. - Operating profit rose by 43% to $291 million, with adjusted operating profit growing by 35% to $337 million, resulting in an adjusted operating margin of 16.5% [3]. Demand and Orders - First-quarter orders increased by approximately 13% year-over-year and about 21% from the previous quarter, leading to a book-to-bill ratio of approximately 1.4x [4]. - Vertiv's backlog grew to $7.9 billion, a 10% increase since the end of 2024 and 25% higher than in Q1 2024, attributed to strong market demand, particularly in AI deployments [4][5]. Forecast and Guidance - Vertiv revised its full-year 2025 net sales guidance upward by $250 million, now anticipating net sales between $9.325 billion and $9.575 billion, exceeding the previous outlook and analyst consensus of approximately $9.2 billion [6][7]. - The company maintained its prior full-year guidance for adjusted operating profit and adjusted diluted EPS, indicating potential margin compression due to ongoing international tariffs [7][8]. Market Reaction - The stock price surged following the Q1 earnings report, with shares increasing over 8% by midday on April 24, reflecting strong investor sentiment driven by the AI infrastructure narrative [11][12][14]. - The market's enthusiasm appears to focus on current performance and demand indicators rather than slight variations in Q2 EPS guidance [12][13]. Strategic Positioning - Vertiv's partnerships with companies like NVIDIA and projects such as "iGenius" in Italy highlight its capabilities in the rapidly expanding AI sector [5]. - The underlying growth narrative, supported by secular trends and strategic partnerships, remains compelling despite potential headwinds like tariff uncertainties [15].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [58]. Core Insights - Vertiv's Q1 2025 performance significantly exceeded expectations, with a sales figure of $2.036 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 24% [3][4]. - The report highlights a strong demand for AI computing and data center expansion, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, which saw a growth rate of 36% [3][7]. - The overall guidance for 2025 has been raised by $250 million, reflecting a robust growth outlook driven by core business expansion and favorable currency effects [10][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) sector as a key theme for 2025, with expectations of exceeding previous forecasts [20][21]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Vertiv's Q1 2025 adjusted earnings per share reached $0.64, surpassing the upper limit of the company's guidance [4]. - The company reported a TTM order growth of 20% and a Q1 order growth of 13% year-over-year, with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.4, indicating strong demand [15][19]. Regional Performance - The Americas and Asia-Pacific regions showed remarkable growth, with revenue increases of 29% and 36% respectively, driven by strong demand from large-scale data center clients [7][9]. - The EMEA region experienced a more moderate growth of 7%, attributed to delays in AI infrastructure development [9]. Market Trends - The report notes a significant gap between current supply and the demand for AI computing resources, suggesting a structural shortage in the IDC industry [27]. - The anticipated growth in AI investment is expected to drive a new growth cycle in the IDC sector, similar to the previous boom from 2016 to 2020 [27][30]. Competitive Landscape - The report identifies third-party data center service providers as gaining market share over traditional telecom operators, highlighting their flexibility and ability to meet customized demands [30][33]. - Key players in the IDC space include CenturyLink, GDS, and others, with a focus on high-value urban clusters such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [34][38]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests potential investment targets within the IDC sector, including companies like Ruize Technology, Century Internet, and WanGuo Data, which are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing AI and cloud trends [20][50].

当微软上个月取消了在俄亥俄州的数据中心计划，加之报道称亚马逊云服务正在撤销部分人工智能数据 中心项目，市场迅速陷入了对数据中心热潮是否已经结束的焦虑。 然而，担忧或许过头了，有迹象显示，AI整体资本支出依然强劲。 "我们继续看到AI部署在数据中心市场加速扩展，强劲的需求信号强化了我们对近期和长期增长的信 心，"总部位于俄亥俄州的数据中心供应商Vertiv的CEO Giordano Albertazzi在上周的财报电话会议上表 示。该公司股价上周上涨了22%。 市场需求并非撤退，而是"暂时的暂停"。根据麦肯锡公司最新的模型预测(不包括关税影响)，未来五到 七年数据中心市场预计将保持20%至25%的增长范围，但逐年之间增长率会有波动。 "增长不会是线性的，"麦肯锡高级合伙人Pankaj Sachdeva表示，他研究数据中心发展并预计会有起伏。 科技巨头重申市场强劲：需求未见减弱 亚马逊和英伟达上周都重申，数据中心市场依然强劲。 "没有出现任何重大变化，"亚马逊全球数据中心副总裁Kevin Miller在Hamm美国能源研究所组织的一次 会议上表示： "我们继续看到非常强劲的需求，无论是未来几年还是长期来看，数字只 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting personal in-depth research and due diligence before making investment decisions [3]. Company and Industry Summary - The analysis is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered as professional investment advice [3]. - There is a clear statement that past performance does not guarantee future results, indicating a cautious approach to investment recommendations [4]. - The article highlights that the views expressed may not reflect those of the platform as a whole, suggesting a diversity of opinions among analysts [4].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The overseas AI computing power market remains robust, with significant growth in companies like Vertiv and Amphenol, driven by strong demand in the AI sector [1][2] - Google's capital expenditure remains at $75 billion for the year, with advancements in AI providing growth opportunities [3][48] - The Shanghai Auto Show highlights the acceleration of domestic chip innovation in the automotive sector, indicating a growing focus on local manufacturers [3] Summary by Sections Vertiv & Amphenol Performance - Vertiv reported Q1 2025 revenue of $2.036 billion, a year-over-year increase of 24.2%, exceeding guidance by $111 million. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance by $250 million, expecting a midpoint of $9.45 billion, a year-over-year increase of 17.9% [12][19] - Amphenol achieved Q1 2025 revenue of $4.811 billion, surpassing the previous guidance of $4.1 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 48%. The order amount reached a record high of $5.292 billion, a year-over-year increase of 58% [25][34] Google Performance - Google reported Q1 2025 revenue of $90.234 billion, a year-over-year increase of 12%, with net profit rising 46% to $34.540 billion. The company maintains a gross margin of 59.7% [38][39] - The AI model Gemini 2.5 has significantly improved user engagement and business growth, contributing to the overall performance [41] Industry Trends - The automotive sector is increasingly focusing on domestic chip innovation, with companies like Hezhima Intelligent launching new products aimed at enhancing safety and efficiency in driving [3] - The demand for AI-related products is driving growth in various sectors, including IT data communication, which is expected to see high single-digit growth due to accelerated investments in AI data centers [34][65]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The overseas AI computing power market remains robust, with significant growth in companies like Vertiv and Amphenol, driven by strong demand in the AI and data center sectors [1][2] - Google's capital expenditure remains at $75 billion for the year, with advancements in AI providing growth opportunities [3] - The Shanghai Auto Show highlights the acceleration of domestic chip innovation in the automotive sector, indicating a growing focus on local manufacturers [3] Summary by Sections Vertiv & Amphenol Performance - Vertiv reported Q1 2025 revenue of $2.036 billion, a year-over-year increase of 24.2%, exceeding guidance by $111 million. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance by $250 million, expecting a midpoint of $9.45 billion, a year-over-year increase of 17.9% [12][19] - Amphenol achieved Q1 2025 revenue of $4.811 billion, surpassing the previous guidance of $4.1 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 48%. The order amount reached a record high of $5.292 billion, a year-over-year increase of 58% [25][34] Google Performance - Google reported Q1 2025 revenue of $90.234 billion, a year-over-year increase of 12%, with net profit of $34.540 billion, up 46% [38][39] - The company's cloud business revenue reached $12.260 billion, growing 28% year-over-year, driven by strong market demand [39][41] Semiconductor Industry Insights - TSMC's Q1 2025 revenue was $25.53 billion, at the upper end of guidance, with a year-over-year increase of 35.5%. The company expects Q2 revenue to be between $28.4 billion and $29.2 billion, driven by strong demand for 3nm and 5nm technologies [50][58] - SK Hynix reported Q1 2025 revenue of 17.6 trillion KRW, a year-over-year increase of 42%, despite a seasonal decline [65][66] Automotive Sector Developments - The Shanghai Auto Show showcased advancements in domestic automotive chips, with a focus on autonomous driving and smart connectivity, indicating a growing emphasis on local chip manufacturers [3]

Group 1 - Vertiv Holdings (VRT) is a significant contributor to the global development of AI factories, particularly in providing data center cooling technology [1] - The GPUs essential for AI operations require multiple interoperabilities of various innovative technologies [1]

Core Insights - Vertiv Holdings (VRT) reported strong first-quarter 2025 results, with non-GAAP earnings of 64 cents per share, exceeding estimates by 3.23% and showing a year-over-year increase of 48.8% [1] - Net sales reached $2.04 billion, a 24.2% increase year over year, surpassing estimates by 6.26% [1] Financial Performance - VRT has consistently beaten earnings estimates over the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 10.42% [2] - Organic orders rose 20% year over year, with a book-to-bill ratio of approximately 1.4x, and a backlog of $7.9 billion, up 10% from the end of 2024 and 25% from the previous year [2] Revenue Breakdown - Product revenues, which accounted for 81% of total revenues, increased by 29.9% year over year to $1.65 billion [3] - Service revenues grew 4.7% year over year to $386.3 million [3] - Revenues from the Americas increased 28.1% year over year to $1.19 billion, while APAC revenues surged 34.6% to $447.2 million, and EMEA revenues rose 5.7% to $403.5 million [3][4][5] Operating Details - SG&A expenses rose 10.3% year over year to $346.3 million, but as a percentage of sales, they decreased by 210 basis points to 17% [6] - Adjusted operating profit increased 35.4% year over year to $336.7 million, with a non-GAAP operating margin of 16.5%, up 140 basis points [6] Regional Performance - Adjusted operating profit in the Americas surged 38.3% to $259.7 million, while EMEA's profit increased 11.9% to $78.7 million, and APAC's profit jumped 50.3% to $45.7 million [7] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - As of March 31, 2025, cash and cash equivalents totaled $1.47 billion, up from $1.23 billion at the end of 2024, while long-term debt slightly decreased to $2.904 billion [8] - Cash flow from operating activities was $303.3 million, down from $425.2 million in the prior quarter, with free cash flow at $265 million [9] 2025 Guidance - For 2025, VRT expects revenues between $9.325 billion and $9.575 billion, with organic net sales growth projected between 16.5% and 19.5% [10] - Adjusted operating profit is anticipated to be between $1.885 billion and $1.985 billion, with an operating margin of 19.75-21.25% [10] - Non-GAAP earnings per share are expected to range from $3.45 to $3.65, indicating a year-over-year growth of 21.75% [10] Second Quarter Outlook - For Q2 2025, revenues are expected between $2.325 billion and $2.375 billion, with organic net sales growth projected between 19% and 23% [11] - Adjusted operating profit is anticipated to be between $420 million and $450 million, with an operating margin in the 18-19% range [11] - Non-GAAP earnings per share for Q2 are expected to be between 77 cents and 85 cents, suggesting year-over-year growth of 29.85% [12]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, adjusted diluted EPS increased by 49% to $0.64, driven by higher adjusted operating profit and lower interest expenses [31][32] - Organic net sales rose by 25% year-over-year, exceeding sales guidance by over $100 million [32][33] - Adjusted operating profit increased by 35% to $337 million, with a 130 basis point expansion in adjusted operating margin [16][33] - Adjusted free cash flow reached $265 million, up 162% year-over-year, with a free cash flow conversion of over 100% [17][34] - Net leverage currently stands at 0.8%, with an investment-grade credit rating recently assigned by Fitch [35][36] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Strong growth was observed in both the Americas and APAC regions, while EMEA's growth lagged due to slower AI infrastructure build [37] - Adjusted operating margin increased across all three regions, with a notable 160 basis point expansion in the Americas [38] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The trailing 12-month organic orders growth was reported at 20%, with Q1 orders up 21% sequentially and 13% year-over-year [15][16] - In the Americas, TTM organic orders increased by over 30%, while APAC showed order strength and pipeline growth [21][22] - EMEA's order pipeline is robust and growing, despite lagging behind other regions [37][38] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capitalizing on the digital revolution and robust data center demand, particularly around AI infrastructure [8][14] - A strong emphasis on operational excellence and supply chain resilience has been established to navigate tariff challenges [24][30] - The company is committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and cash generation to support future investments and M&A opportunities [36][94] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to handle tariff situations and emphasized the importance of operational flexibility [10][11] - The outlook for 2025 remains strong, with expectations for continued growth driven by demand signals from customers and technology partners [20][52] - The company raised its full-year organic sales growth guidance to 18%, supported by a strong backlog and pipeline [51][43] Other Important Information - The company is actively working on a project with NVIDIA to deliver a prefabricated AI factory, showcasing its capabilities in advanced AI infrastructure [54][57] - The company has developed a detailed tariff playbook to monitor and respond to evolving trade dynamics [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: How do you see the mitigation efforts phasing in through '25? - Management indicated that countermeasures include price actions on new contracts and existing backlog repricing, with benefits expected to increase as the year progresses [61][64] Question: What is driving the impressive performance on orders? - Management noted that growing pipelines and order durability are key factors, with stable pipeline velocity indicating consistent demand [72][74] Question: Can you provide details on China import exposure? - Management refrained from disclosing specific numbers but confirmed that supply reconfiguration and pricing are both contributing to mitigation efforts [80][82] Question: How are you managing production given market dynamics? - Management stated that demand remains strong across various segments, allowing for increased capacity and delivery to the market [98][100] Question: What is the ability to reprice the backlog regarding tariffs? - Ongoing conversations with customers are taking place, with a general understanding of the unique challenges posed by the current tariff environment [103][105] Question: Will Europe start to contribute to bookings? - Management expressed cautious optimism about European growth, while the Americas continue to be a primary growth engine [114][115] Question: What is the total gross tariff-related pressure for 2025? - Management did not disclose specific figures but emphasized a focus on reducing gross impact through pricing and supply chain countermeasures [89][90]