Core Viewpoint - The traditional four-year cycle of Bitcoin, characterized by halving events leading to price rallies followed by bear markets, is losing its relevance as institutional investment increases and macroeconomic factors change [1][2][3]. Institutional Investment - The entry of institutional capital, particularly following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, is expected to accelerate in 2026, fundamentally altering the market dynamics [4]. - Bitcoin treasuries currently hold over 1 million Bitcoin, valued at more than $96 billion, indicating significant institutional accumulation despite market fluctuations [4]. - Major Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), led by BlackRock with $13.5 trillion in assets, collectively hold nearly $150 billion in Bitcoin, further demonstrating institutional interest [5]. Macro Demand - There is a growing macro demand for Bitcoin as an alternative store of value amidst adverse economic conditions, with scarce commodities like Bitcoin and Ether being viewed as potential hedges against fiat currency risks [6].

Where the tokens went matters just as much. The funds moved from unknown wallets into cold storage and regulated custody, causing exchange balances to decline. The broader trend shows 1.35 billion XRP removed from exchanges since early November, with reserves falling from 3.95 billion to 2.6 billion.The early December whale accumulation followed a specific pattern, with XRP ETF custody providers absorbing the bulk of the supply. Multiple moves of around 100 million XRP totalling roughly 800 million tokens h ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is facing significant macroeconomic challenges as the Bank of Japan signals a shift away from its ultra-loose monetary policy, which could tighten global liquidity and negatively impact risk assets like Bitcoin [1][2]. Group 1: Bank of Japan's Policy Shift - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates for the second time this year, marking a step towards normalization despite potential political and economic challenges [2]. - This shift in Japan's monetary policy could lead to a decrease in liquidity for global risk assets, including Bitcoin, as it unwinds the carry trade that has supported these assets for years [3]. Group 2: Impact on Bitcoin and Risk Assets - Bitcoin's price has dropped nearly 30% from its peak of $126,080 on October 6, currently trading at $87,800, reflecting the pressure from changing macroeconomic conditions [1]. - The normalization of the yen through interest rate hikes could lead to a stronger dollar and increased volatility in equity and crypto markets, as liquidity shifts from abundant to constrained [3][4]. Group 3: Mixed Global Macro Environment - The global macroeconomic landscape is complex, with Japan raising interest rates (negative for crypto) while the US is lowering rates (positive for crypto), creating conflicting influences on the market [5]. - Analysts suggest that these opposing macroeconomic forces may balance out over time, but in the short term, they are likely to contribute to increased volatility in the crypto market [5].

The Morning Minute (12.17)Powered by @yeet⏰Top News:-Crypto majors mostly chop on day; BTC at $87,000-Visa expanded its stablecoin settlement to U.S. banks, leveraging Solana-FDIC greenlights proposal showing how U.S. banks can issue their own stables-Rainbow Wallet announces TGE for Feb 5, 2026 along with airdrop-Cantor Fitzgerald calls for $200B+ price target on HYPE in new report🌎 Macro Crypto and Memes-Crypto majors were mostly flat; BTC -0.3% at $87,000; ETH -1% at $2,930, BNB -1% at $858, SOL even at ...

冰与火之歌 2025年的冬季，加密货币市场并未迎来预想中的"圣诞老人行情"，反而笼罩在一片紧张与不确定的迷雾之中。比特币价格在90,000美元的心理关口附近徘 徊，多空双方激烈博弈，市场情绪如履薄冰。这股寒意的背后，并非源于加密世界内部的黑天鹅，而是来自全球两大经济体——美国与日本，截然相反的 货币政策路径所引发的一场完美风暴。 一边是美联储开启降息通道，释放流动性；另一边是日本央行（BOJ）磨刀霍霍，准备终结数十年的负利率时代。这"一松一紧"的宏观大戏，为何会让习 惯了风浪的币圈交易员们感到前所未有的紧张？答案隐藏在一个深刻影响全球资本流动的机制，以及比特币对全球流动性的高度敏感性之中。 在这双重压力下，理性的选择便是"平仓"，即解除套利交易。投资者会开始抛售他们此前购买的风险资产（包括比特币），将所得资金换回日元以偿还债 务。如果这种平仓行为形成浪潮，将对全球市场造成巨大的卖压，形成一场"去杠杆化"风暴。 当前市场最直接的恐惧，源于日本央行即将在12月19日召开的政策会议。根据Polymarket等预测市场的数据，市场普遍认为日本央行此次加息25个基点的 概率高达98%，这将使其基准利率达到0.75%，进 ...

Group 1: Bitcoin ETF Outflows - Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced significant outflows of $277 million on December 16, marking the second consecutive day of outflows [2] - BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the outflows with $210 million, while Bitwise's BITB followed with $50 million; Fidelity's FBTC was the only fund to see inflows of $26.7 million [2] - The total net assets under management (AUM) for all Bitcoin ETFs dropped sharply from $169.5 billion to $120.7 billion over the past 60 days, with November alone witnessing net outflows of $3.79 billion [3] Group 2: Institutional Selling Pressure - BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) accounted for a significant portion of the decline, with approximately $2.7 billion in redemptions over a five-week period, indicating strong institutional selling pressure [4] - On-chain data indicates that long-term holders (LTH) of Bitcoin are locking in gains and selling during price increases, with recent sell-offs being among the largest in the last five years [5] - The current selling behavior reflects profit-taking rather than panic-driven capitulation, as long-term holder supply is declining from record levels while Bitcoin trades above the LTH realized price [6] Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts are anticipating further volatility in Bitcoin prices ahead of key macroeconomic events, including the release of US CPI data and the Bank of Japan's expected rate hike to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995 [6]

🗞️ Need to catch up on the news? Here's our top 10 from today:🔸 President Trump is set to interview pro-crypto Fed Governor Christopher Waller for Fed Chair on Wednesday, per WSJ.🔹 Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong says the broken traditional financial system is driving younger generations to crypto as they "feel locked out of the old wealth ladder.”🔸 FDIC unveils framework for US banks to issue payment stablecoins under GENIUS Act, outlining approval requirements for bank subsidiaries to enter the digital dolla ...

Market Outlook - Bitwise predicts new Bitcoin All-Time Highs (ATHs) in 2026 [1] - The forecast is based on institutional inflows and regulatory tailwinds outweighing historical 4-year-cycle bearish factors [1] - Bitwise also anticipates new highs for ETH and SOL, contingent on the CLARITY ACT passing [1] Investment Strategy - Crypto stocks are expected to outperform tech stocks [1]

Crypto investment firm Bitwise believes Bitcoin will set a new all-time high price in 2026 and end the typical four-year cycle. Here's why. https://t.co/sOkg1t4jiQ ...

Market Outlook - Bitwise expects new Bitcoin highs in 2026 [1] - The report suggests the end of the 4-year cycle for Bitcoin [1]