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证券研究报告 医药生物行业生命科学服务系列报告（一） ——海外公司 Bio-Techne & Thermo Fisher 西部证券研发中心 2025年3月14日 分析师 | 李梦园 S0800523010001 邮箱地址 limengyuan@research.xbmail.com.cn 分析师 | 谭雨露 S0800524100004 邮箱地址 tanyulu@research.xbmail.com.cn 核心结论 CONTENTS 目 录 CONTENTS 目 录 02 Thermo Fisher 公司概述 01 Bio-Techne 公司概述 生命科学服务国内相关标的 03 Bio-Techne 公司介绍 3.1 3.6 4.5 5.0 5.6 6.4 7.1 7.4 9.3 11.1 11.4 11.6 5.9 15.2% 26.4% 10.3% 12.8% 14.2% 11.0% 3.5% 26.0% 18.7% 2.8% 2.0% 6.7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates Thermo Fisher as "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential upside of 31.8% [2] Core Insights - The performance of C(D)MO and life sciences upstream companies is showing positive trends, while clinical CRO companies are experiencing a decline in demand [1][4] - The overall revenue and profit growth for the tracked companies in 2024 remains under pressure, but half of them showed improvement in the second half of 2024 compared to the first half [6][7] - The demand outlook for 2025 varies significantly across different segments, with C(D)MO and life sciences upstream companies being optimistic, while clinical CRO companies maintain a cautious stance [1][4][38] Summary by Sections Profit Recovery - Profit recovery is outpacing revenue recovery, with the median and average profit growth rates for the industry in 2024 at +2.4% and +3.5%, respectively, compared to -6.2% and -7.2% in 2023 [7][24] - The average gross margin for the tracked companies decreased from 46.4% in 2022 to 41.7% in 2024, indicating pressure from demand weakness [24][25] Demand Trends - C(D)MO companies are witnessing strong commercial production demand, with Lonza and Samsung Bio reporting significant growth in their C(D)MO revenues [38][39] - Life sciences upstream companies are benefiting from the completion of inventory destocking by downstream clients, leading to a recovery in demand [39][40] 2025 Performance Guidance - C(D)MO and life sciences upstream companies are providing improved performance guidance for 2025, while clinical CRO companies are showing a notable deterioration in their outlook [1][4][39] - Lonza expects its C(D)MO revenue growth to approach 20% in 2025, while Samsung Bio anticipates a continued growth of 20-25% [1][4] Long-term Growth Support - The global healthcare financing is stabilizing, with a 1.4% year-on-year increase in 2024, marking the first positive growth since 2021 [1][4] - Pharmaceutical companies' strong free cash flow will continue to support innovation and research and development [1][4] Market Reactions - Following the 4Q24 earnings releases, stock price reactions varied significantly across different segments, with C(D)MO and clinical pre-CRO stocks performing better than life sciences upstream and clinical CRO stocks [30][31]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter 2024 sales were $2.1 billion, an increase of 2.3% on an organic basis and 1.9% on a reported basis, reflecting positive momentum [40] - Gross margin was 56.2%, slightly ahead of expectations but down 100 basis points year-over-year [45] - Adjusted operating income was $422 million, translating to an operating margin of 20.4%, slightly ahead of expectations [47] - Earnings per share were $1.41, exceeding expectations [48] - The company ended the year with $762 million in cash and equivalents and no outstanding borrowings on its credit facility [50] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - MedSurg segment delivered $1.2 billion in sales, an increase of 1.8% on an organic basis, driven by higher OEM and advanced wound care [42] - Dental segment generated $315 million in revenue, up 4.2% on an organic basis, benefiting from recent product launches [43] - Health Information Systems segment contributed $336 million in revenue, an increase of 1.1% on an organic basis, aided by the adoption of the revenue cycle management platform [44] - Purification & Filtration segment achieved $235 million in sales, a 3.5% organic increase, supported by strong demand in bioprocessing filtration [44] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a 60 basis point headwind from foreign exchange due to a stronger U.S. dollar [41] - The overall market environment remains complex, with the company focusing on improving commercial excellence and leveraging R&D for growth [94][96] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a three-phase transformation strategy aimed at establishing a foundation for success, unlocking profitable growth, and optimizing its portfolio [23][29][33] - The divestiture of the Purification & Filtration business is part of the strategy to streamline focus and improve key metrics [33] - The long-term strategy will be unveiled at the upcoming Investor Day on March 20, 2025 [31][35] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to sustain volume growth and improve margins, despite challenges from the separation process [62] - The company anticipates organic sales growth of 1% to 2% for 2025, with a normalized outlook of 1.5% to 2.5% [55][56] - Management emphasized the importance of commercial excellence and R&D innovation as key drivers for future growth [94][96] Other Important Information - The company plans to exit all transition service agreements over the next two years as part of the separation process [38] - The anticipated impact of the divestiture on earnings per share is expected to be neutral in 2025 [59][126] - The company is not planning to initiate dividends or stock buybacks, as proceeds from the divestiture will primarily be used to repay debt [141] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide a breakdown of organic growth by segment? - Management stated that they are not providing segment-level guidance but expect improvements across all segments due to ongoing initiatives [67][69] Question: What explains the lighter free cash flow guidance? - The lighter guidance is attributed to increased separation costs, with a focus on modeling non-GAAP separation-related costs from Q4 into 2025 [73][75] Question: Will the SKU rationalization impact operating margins? - Management indicated that while there will be a small benefit in sales growth and margins, the primary goal of SKU rationalization is simplification [81] Question: How ready is the organization for M&A after the divestiture? - The divestiture allows for an accelerated timeline for M&A, with the organization building capacity to pursue smaller transactions [85][87] Question: What factors are influencing topline performance as you exit 2024? - Management highlighted three vectors for growth: commercial excellence, R&D innovation, and M&A, with a focus on leveraging commercial excellence for immediate improvements [94][96] Question: How much of your manufacturing is in Mexico, and what flexibility do you have? - The company has two plants in Mexico and believes it has less exposure to tariffs compared to others, with limited imports from China [138] Question: Are there plans for dividends or stock buybacks post-divestiture? - Management confirmed that proceeds from the divestiture will primarily be used for debt repayment, with no plans for dividends or buybacks due to restrictions from 3M agreements [141]