Investment Rating - Industry view is cautious [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a cautious outlook for the semiconductor industry, particularly in the context of AI and memory sectors, with a focus on potential recovery in the second half of 2025 impacted by tariff costs [7] - Long-term demand drivers include the reacceleration of AI semiconductor demand due to generative AI, which is expected to proliferate across various verticals outside the semiconductor industry [7] - The report indicates that the global semiconductor revenue peaked in the third quarter of 2024, with a forecasted decline in semiconductor exports from Korea since February 2025 [12][19] Summary by Sections Semiconductor Market Dynamics - The cyclical downturn is characterized by a shift from euphoria to pessimism, as indicated by the SOX Index performance [8] - Historical data shows that declines in semiconductor inventory days have historically signaled positive stock price appreciation [41] - The report notes that the domestic GPU supply chain may face dilution due to shipments of NVIDIA B30, impacting inferencing AI demand [7] Memory and Logic Cycles - Memory stock prices are seen as leading indicators for logic semiconductors, with the report suggesting that memory share price peaks lead logic semis [42][43] - The report forecasts a significant increase in HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) market size, projecting it to reach US$64 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 107% from 2023 to 2027 [67] AI and Technology Trends - The report emphasizes the shift in value from hardware to application in the AI investment stack, indicating a growing focus on software and application development [73] - It is projected that local GPU revenue in China could grow to RMB 287 billion by 2027, driven by advancements in local manufacturing capabilities [90]

Summary of China Semiconductor Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **China Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE)** market, with a revision of the 2025 outlook due to stronger foundry demand [1][17] - The 2025 WFE demand projection for China has been revised up to **USD 39 billion**, reflecting a **-13% YoY** change, while the 2026 projection is set at **USD 41 billion** with a **5% YoY** increase [1][26] Key Insights - **Demand Sustainability**: The sustainability of WFE demand in China remains a key topic of discussion, with recent data showing resilient import figures year-to-date [1][4] - **Local Production Growth**: Local AI chip production is gaining traction, driven by export controls limiting access to advanced overseas manufacturing, making local production essential [2] - **Capacity Expansion**: Despite global overcapacity concerns in mature logic, Chinese foundries are expected to continue expanding capacity, aiming for self-sufficiency [3][35] - **Utilization Rates**: Companies like Hua Hong are operating at **103% utilization** with only a **9% gross margin**, indicating a focus on filling new capacity rather than protecting margins [3] Financial Projections - **2024 WFE Demand**: Projected at **USD 45 billion**, with a **23% YoY** increase, supported by strong import data and local supplier growth [25][30] - **2025 and 2026 Projections**: The demand is expected to decrease slightly in 2025 and 2026, with projections of **USD 39 billion** and **USD 41 billion**, respectively [26][32] Import Data - Year-to-date import data shows a **-2% YoY** decline, indicating stability rather than a slowdown in demand [4][42] - The largest import region is **Guangdong**, suggesting a ramp-up in advanced logic customers [4] Company Ratings - **NAURA, AMEC, and Piotech** are rated as **Outperform** due to their leadership in deposition and dry etch technologies, benefiting from domestic WFE substitution [5][8][9][10] - **AMAT and LRCX** are also rated as **Outperform**, with expectations of growth driven by market dynamics and service narratives [11] Market Dynamics - The share of Chinese foundries in global mature logic revenue is currently at **21%**, with a target of **30%** [3] - The domestic share of WFE is expected to reach **36% by 2026**, driven by government incentives and local co-development efforts [22][28] Conclusion - The Chinese semiconductor industry is poised for continued growth, with a focus on self-sufficiency and local production capabilities. The demand for WFE is expected to remain strong despite global market fluctuations, supported by local foundries' expansion and government policies promoting domestic suppliers.

Summary of SenseTime Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: SenseTime (0020.HK) - **Industry**: Artificial Intelligence (AI) Software Key Points 1. **Generative AI Trend**: Management remains optimistic about the generative AI trend in China, emphasizing the launch of their foundation model, SenseNova V6, which features competitive costs for training and inferencing [1][2][4] 2. **MOU with Chinese University**: SenseTime signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Faculty of Law at the Chinese University of Hong Kong to enhance legal information accessibility through AI [4][7] 3. **Foundation Model - SenseNova V6**: The SenseNova V6 model, introduced in April, boasts multimodal reasoning capabilities and cost efficiency in both training and inferencing. It can handle long-form video understanding and supports various use cases such as role-playing, translation, and cultural tourism guiding [8][4] 4. **AI Supply Chain Outlook**: Management's positive outlook on generative AI aligns with a broader positive view on the China AI supply chain, indicating an increase in entities adopting generative AI technologies [2][4] 5. **Investment Upgrades**: Analysts have upgraded several companies within the AI supply chain, including SMIC, VeriSilicon, AMEC, and Cambricon, reflecting confidence in the sector's growth [2][4] Additional Insights - **Technological Capabilities**: SenseTime's offerings include capabilities in perception intelligence, natural language processing, decision intelligence, and AI-enabled content generation, supported by their SenseCore system [3][4] - **Market Position**: SenseTime is positioned as a leading AI software company, focusing on low-cost and high-efficiency AI solutions [3][4] This summary encapsulates the essential information from the conference call, highlighting SenseTime's strategic initiatives and the overall sentiment in the AI industry.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment** industry, specifically analyzing the **Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE)** market, with data from the **SEAJ** (Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan) [2][18]. Core Insights - **WFE Growth**: In April, Japan's SPE (Semiconductor Production Equipment) billing increased by **15% YoY** in USD and **8% YoY** in JPY. The 3-month average billing showed a **27% YoY** increase in USD and **15% YoY** in JPY, indicating a cyclical upward trend since mid-CY2023 [3][22]. - **Tokyo Electron (TEL)**: The billing data suggests that TEL's revenue for Q1 may exceed consensus expectations, with a predicted **-1% QoQ** decline, better than the consensus estimate of **-9% QoQ**. This indicates potential upside for TEL, especially as the company anticipates a stronger second half of the year [4][27][31]. - **Future Projections**: The global WFE market is expected to remain flat YoY in **CY2025** at **$108 billion** and grow by **6%** to **$115 billion** in **CY2026**. This growth is anticipated despite weaker spending from China, which is expected to be offset by increased DRAM spending and a recovery in NAND [5][19]. Company-Specific Insights - **Tokyo Electron (TEL)**: Rated as **Outperform** with a price target of **¥33,800**. TEL is the largest Japanese SPE supplier and is expected to gain market share and expand margins due to competitive pricing following yen depreciation [9]. - **DISCO**: Also rated as **Outperform** with a price target of **¥41,300**. DISCO holds an **85% market share** in grinders and dicers, benefiting from the growing demand for advanced packaging technologies [10]. - **Kokusai**: Rated as **Outperform** with a price target of **¥3,640**. The company is expected to see increased adoption of batch ALD technology, particularly in NAND applications [11]. - **Advantest**: Rated as **Market-Perform** with a price target of **¥7,060**. The company benefits from rising testing intensity for HBM and AI GPUs [11]. - **AMAT and LRCX**: Both rated as **Outperform** with price targets of **$210** and **$95**, respectively. AMAT is expected to benefit from secular WFE growth, while LRCX is positioned well for a NAND upgrade cycle [14]. Additional Insights - **China's Demand**: Despite expectations of a decline in China's WFE imports, the situation appears more resilient than previously feared, with YTD March imports remaining relatively stable. This suggests that the decline may not be as severe as the projected **-30%** [22]. - **Market Dynamics**: The competitive landscape includes both global players and Chinese suppliers, with domestic substitution driving growth for companies like NAURA and AMEC in China [16][17]. Conclusion - The semiconductor capital equipment industry shows promising growth prospects, particularly for key players like Tokyo Electron, DISCO, and Kokusai. Despite challenges in the Chinese market, the overall outlook remains positive, with expectations of gradual recovery and market share gains for Japanese equipment manufacturers.

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating for several companies in the semiconductor sector to "Buy," including Cambricon, SMIC, AMEC, and VeriSilicon [2][62]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry in Greater China is experiencing a positive trend, driven by increased market demand, particularly in advanced technologies such as generative AI and ADAS [3][4]. - The report highlights a significant year-over-year growth in integrated circuit (IC) production and imports, indicating a recovery from previous weak seasons [1][3]. - The overall semiconductor revenue in China showed a 9% year-over-year increase in March 2025, reflecting a steady recovery from earlier months [4][27]. Summary by Sections IC Production and Imports - IC production volume in March 2025 increased by 9.2% year-over-year, reaching 42 billion units, compared to a 4.4% increase in January and February 2025 [1][25]. - IC import value rose by 11.1% year-over-year to US$35 billion in April 2025, while import volume increased by 7.6% year-over-year to 50 billion units [9][19]. - The average selling price (ASP) of IC imports increased by 3.3% year-over-year in April 2025 [1][21]. Market Demand and Revenue - The report indicates that the semiconductor market is benefiting from strong company-specific drivers, including new product launches and market share gains [2][3]. - Taiwan's semiconductor revenue grew by 34.1% year-over-year in April 2025, with foundry revenues up by 43.7% year-over-year [7][8]. - The total revenue for China's semiconductor sector reached US$15.4 billion in March 2025, marking a continued growth trend [4][27]. Inventory and Supply Chain - The days of inventory (DOI) for China's electronics sector was reported at 53 days in March 2025, consistent with historical averages [1][17]. - The report notes a healthy inventory level, suggesting stability in the supply chain for semiconductor manufacturers [4][17].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the semiconductor sector, including ACM Research, AMEC, AccoTest, Cambricon, Horizon Robotics, Montage, NAURA, Piotech, and Will Semi [13]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry in China is expected to see increased capital expenditure (capex) in the coming years, driven by local demand for advanced semiconductor capacities amid tariff uncertainties [2]. - There is a significant focus on high-end lithography systems, which are critical for producing advanced node semiconductors, as existing tools may soon become obsolete [3][4]. - The technology gap in lithography remains substantial, with a need for more skilled talent and a robust supply chain to support research and development [4][6]. Summary by Sections Investment in High-End SPEs - The industry is prioritizing investment in high-end lithography systems due to export controls on existing technologies, with a noted urgent demand for these systems in China [3]. Technology Gap - The complexity of lithography systems presents a significant challenge, requiring time for R&D and a greater pool of talent to expedite development [4][6]. Lithography Ecosystem - The lithography ecosystem in China is still in its early stages, with supply chain companies collaborating to develop necessary systems, although challenges remain in producing highly customized lens components [6].