Summary of Zeo Energy Corp Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: Zeo Energy Corp - **Ticker Symbol**: ZEO - **Industry**: Residential solar sales, installation, and maintenance - **Location**: New Port Richey, Florida - **Public Listing**: Went public via SPAC in March 2024 - **Recent Acquisitions**: Acquired assets from bankrupt Lumio and energy storage company Heliogen, Inc. [2][14] Core Business Insights - **Ownership Structure**: Founder-owned with insiders owning over 60% of the company [3] - **Sales Force**: Approximately 300 sales representatives focused on door-to-door sales [3][4] - **Profitability**: Profitable since 2019 with positive EBITDA; did not require capital raise during public offering [3][12] - **Market Position**: Historically outperformed the industry until 2023 due to high interest rates leading to bankruptcies among competitors [3][4] Market Dynamics - **Industry Challenges**: High interest rates and poor cash management have led to turmoil in the residential solar market, with notable bankruptcies [4][12] - **Market Recovery**: Anticipation of market recovery and growth in the coming years [4][13] - **Sales Strategy**: Seasonal sales approach with a focus on summer sales blitzes [4][5] Growth Strategy - **Acquisition Focus**: Expanding through acquisitions and diversifying into commercial energy storage [6][14] - **Energy Storage Demand**: Increasing demand for long-duration energy storage solutions, particularly for AI data centers and large manufacturers [6][15] - **Customer Base**: Targeting solid credit customers (740 FICO score) for long-term leases [6] Competitive Landscape - **Comparison with Competitors**: Compared to larger competitors like Sunrun and Sunova, Zeo has lower debt and a more stable financial position [11][12] - **Market Penetration**: U.S. residential solar penetration is low compared to countries like Germany (12%), Netherlands (24%), and Australia (38%) [10][11] Financial Outlook - **Revenue Seasonality**: Approximately 65% of revenues and profitability expected in the second half of the year due to seasonal business [12] - **Future Projections**: Potential to double the number of homes with solar installations in the U.S. from 5 million to 10 million [11] Technology and Innovation - **Energy Storage Technologies**: Focus on molten salt and compressed CO2 storage technologies for energy storage solutions [6][20] - **Cost Efficiency**: Levelized cost of energy for 24/7 solar with backup CO2 is below $0.10 per kilowatt-hour [27] - **Long-Term Viability**: Storage technologies are expected to outperform lithium-based solutions in long-duration applications [31] Strategic Partnerships - **Leasing Partnerships**: Collaborating with leasing companies to provide long-term leases and tax equity benefits [6][16] - **Market Expansion**: Exploring complementary services such as roofing and HVAC to enhance offerings [13] Conclusion - **Market Positioning**: Zeo Energy Corp is well-positioned for growth in the residential and commercial solar markets, with a strong focus on energy storage solutions and a solid financial foundation [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government proposed to include copper, silicon, silver, and other minerals in the 2025 critical mineral list due to their importance to the economy and national security [1][4]. Group 1: Proposed Minerals - The draft list includes six newly proposed minerals: copper, potassium, silicon, silver, lead, and rhenium [4]. - The U.S. Geological Survey is also analyzing the potential inclusion of uranium and metallurgical coal, while arsenic and tellurium are suggested for removal from the list [4]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Inclusion in the critical mineral list can lead to federal funding, simplified permitting processes, and increased competitiveness due to import tariffs [4]. - The proposal aims to reduce U.S. dependence on imported critical minerals and expand domestic production [5]. Group 3: Industry Reactions - The copper industry has been advocating for its inclusion, emphasizing its significance for the economy and national security [5]. - The International Copper Association's president highlighted copper's role in electrification, defense, and clean energy, stating that recognizing its criticality aligns with U.S. interests [5]. Group 4: Market Impact - Following the announcement, stock prices of fertilizer companies listed in the U.S. saw increases, with Mosaic rising by 4.5% and Nutrien by 2.9% [6]. Group 5: Supply Chain Analysis - The U.S. Geological Survey's supply chain disruption model assessed over 1,200 trade disruption scenarios for 84 mineral commodities, estimating potential impacts on 402 industries and the overall economy [7]. - The model indicates that even losing one critical mineral could trigger a chain reaction affecting various sectors, from semiconductors to defense systems, thereby weakening production capacity and job opportunities [8].

Company Overview - The Mosaic Company (MOS) has agreed to sell its Brazilian potash unit, Mosaic Potassio Mineracao Ltda (MPM), to VL Mineracao Ltda for up to $27 million, which includes $12 million at closing, $10 million one year later, and $5 million over the next six years [1][8] - VL Mineracao will also assume approximately $22 million in asset retirement obligations associated with the mine [1][8] Transaction Details - The sale is subject to approval from Brazil's Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE) and is expected to be completed by year-end 2025 [2] - Mosaic anticipates a book loss of $50–$70 million from this transaction [2][8] - Starting in the third quarter, Mosaic will classify the asset as "held for sale" [2] Operational Insights - The Taquari mine requires over $25 million in capital inputs to ensure sustained viability, and Mosaic believes that these funds could be better utilized elsewhere within the company [3] - VL Mineracao is committed to investing in the Taquari operations to benefit the local economy and community [3] Industry Context - For full-year 2025, Mosaic expects phosphate production volumes to be between 6.9 million and 7.2 million tons, while potash production is projected at 9.3 million to 9.5 million tons [4] - Mosaic Fertilizantes sales volumes are anticipated to be at the lower end of the 10-10.8 million ton range [4] - Nutrien projects retail adjusted EBITDA of $1.65 to $1.85 billion for 2025, driven by stronger sales in North America and improved conditions in Brazil and Australia [5] - CF Industries indicates a favorable global nitrogen supply-demand balance, with Brazil expected to import over 5 million metric tons of urea [6] - Interpid Potash reports ongoing pricing support in the potash market due to strong fundamentals [7]

Core Insights - The Mosaic Company has partnered with Integrated Environmental Technology (IET) to implement IETLink, a telemetry solution aimed at enhancing wastewater monitoring through real-time data access, reflecting Mosaic's commitment to innovation and environmental stewardship [1][2]. Group 1: Partnership and Technology - The collaboration with IETLink allows Mosaic to explore new technology that aligns with its sustainability goals, providing field teams with better real-time data [2]. - IETLink features a cloud-based dashboard that streams data from sensors to desktops and mobile devices, enabling immediate access to environmental indicators [2][3]. - Unlike traditional SCADA systems, IETLink is designed to be lightweight, flexible, and durable, facilitating proactive decision-making and improving site responsiveness [2][3]. Group 2: Operational Benefits - The Mosaic-IETLink collaboration is currently active at select Mosaic sites, with a white paper on deployment outcomes and operational benefits set to be released on November 1, 2025 [3]. - IETLink aims to provide real-time, actionable insights, helping operators reduce downtime and avoid emergencies while enhancing asset monetization [3]. Group 3: Company Background - The Mosaic Company is a leading producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients, focusing on sustainable agricultural solutions through its Mosaic Biosciences platform [5]. - IETLink specializes in advanced environmental monitoring and telemetry systems, aiming to enhance sustainability and operational efficiency in various applications [4].

[PART I. FINANCIAL INFORMATION](index=3&type=section&id=PART%20I.%20FINANCIAL%20INFORMATION) [Item 1. Financial Statements](index=3&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Financial%20Statements) The company achieved a significant profit turnaround in Q2 2025 driven by higher sales, though operating cash flow declined Condensed Consolidated Statements of Earnings (Loss) | Metric | Three Months Ended June 30, 2025 | Three Months Ended June 30, 2024 | Six Months Ended June 30, 2025 | Six Months Ended June 30, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net Sales** | $3,005.7 M | $2,816.6 M | $5,626.6 M | $5,496.0 M | | **Gross Margin** | $518.6 M | $394.0 M | $1,007.0 M | $793.2 M | | **Operating Earnings** | $244.4 M | $233.3 M | $582.9 M | $406.2 M | | **Net Earnings (Loss) attributable to Mosaic** | $410.7 M | $(161.5) M | $648.8 M | $(116.3) M | | **Diluted EPS attributable to Mosaic** | $1.29 | $(0.50) | $2.04 | $(0.36) | Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheet Highlights | Metric | June 30, 2025 | December 31, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Total Current Assets** | $5,017.9 M | $4,498.3 M | | **Total Assets** | $24,304.8 M | $22,924.0 M | | **Total Current Liabilities** | $4,416.7 M | $4,171.3 M | | **Long-term Debt** | $3,331.3 M | $3,332.3 M | | **Total Equity** | $12,584.6 M | $11,614.7 M | Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows | Metric | Six Months Ended June 30, 2025 | Six Months Ended June 30, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net cash provided by operating activities** | $652.4 M | $767.0 M | | **Net cash used in investing activities** | $(659.3) M | $(736.8) M | | **Net cash used in financing activities** | $(13.2) M | $(30.7) M | | **Capital expenditures** | $(645.4) M | $(716.9) M | [Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements](index=9&type=section&id=Notes%20to%20Condensed%20Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) The notes detail business segments, financing arrangements, significant liabilities like Asset Retirement Obligations, and legal contingencies - The company operates through three main segments: **Phosphates** (Florida mines, Louisiana plants), **Potash** (Canada, U.S. mines), and **Mosaic Fertilizantes** (Brazil assets)[24](index=24&type=chunk) - On May 16, 2025, the company amended its five-year credit facility, increasing it to **$2.5 billion** and extending the maturity to May 16, 2030[44](index=44&type=chunk) - Total Asset Retirement Obligations (AROs) were **$2.59 billion** as of June 30, 2025, a slight increase from $2.57 billion at the end of 2024, with a majority related to Gypstack closure costs[57](index=57&type=chunk)[58](index=58&type=chunk) - The company faces significant legal and tax contingencies in Brazil, with potential liability for non-income tax matters estimated at **$700.5 million** and for labor claims at **$401.3 million**[98](index=98&type=chunk)[100](index=100&type=chunk) - **No share repurchases** were made in the first six months of 2025, compared to the repurchase of **5.2 million shares for approximately $160.4 million** in the same period of 2024[84](index=84&type=chunk) [Item 2. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations](index=28&type=section&id=Item%202.%20Management's%20Discussion%20and%20Analysis%20of%20Financial%20Condition%20and%20Results%20of%20Operations) Net income recovered strongly in Q2 2025 due to higher selling prices, favorable currency movements, and investment gains [Consolidated Results of Operations](index=28&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Results%20of%20Operations) Q2 2025 net income surged due to higher gross margin, a significant foreign currency gain, and an unrealized investment gain Consolidated Financial Highlights (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024) | Metric | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | Change (%) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net Sales** | $3,005.7 M | $2,816.6 M | 7% | | **Gross Margin** | $518.6 M | $394.0 M | 32% | | **Operating Earnings** | $244.4 M | $233.3 M | 5% | | **Net Earnings (Loss) to Mosaic** | $410.7 M | $(161.5) M | NM | | **Foreign Currency Gain (Loss)** | $169.4 M | $(267.9) M | NM | [Segment Performance](index=31&type=section&id=Segment%20Performance) Performance varied by segment in Q2 2025, with strong growth in Mosaic Fertilizantes and Potash offsetting a decline in Phosphates Phosphate Segment Highlights (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024) | Metric | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | Change (%) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net Sales** | $1,173.0 M | $1,179.5 M | (1)% | | **Gross Margin** | $103.0 M | $153.7 M | (33)% | | **Sales Volumes (k tonnes)** | 1,546 | 1,696 | (9)% | | **Avg. Selling Price ($/tonne)** | $665 | $578 | 15% | | **Sulfur Cost ($/long ton)** | $209 | $138 | 51% | Potash Segment Highlights (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024) | Metric | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | Change (%) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net Sales** | $710.5 M | $663.1 M | 7% | | **Gross Margin** | $209.4 M | $186.4 M | 12% | | **Sales Volumes (k tonnes)** | 2,343 | 2,346 | 0% | | **Avg. Selling Price ($/tonne)** | $274 | $240 | 14% | Mosaic Fertilizantes Segment Highlights (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024) | Metric | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | Change (%) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net Sales** | $1,174.9 M | $1,048.9 M | 12% | | **Gross Margin** | $161.7 M | $101.8 M | 59% | | **Sales Volumes (k tonnes)** | 2,232 | 2,196 | 2% | | **Avg. Selling Price ($/tonne)** | $474 | $423 | 12% | [Liquidity and Capital Resources](index=39&type=section&id=Liquidity%20and%20Capital%20Resources) The company maintains a strong liquidity position, though operating cash flow decreased due to higher inventory levels - The company targets a liquidity buffer of up to **$3.0 billion**, including cash and available credit lines[187](index=187&type=chunk) Cash Flow Summary (Six Months Ended June 30) | Cash Flow | 2025 | 2024 | Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Operating Activities** | $652.4 M | $767.0 M | $(114.6) M | | **Investing Activities** | $(659.3) M | $(736.8) M | $77.5 M | | **Financing Activities** | $(13.2) M | $(30.7) M | $17.5 M | - The decrease in operating cash flow was primarily driven by a **$378.1 million increase in inventories**, reflecting higher volumes and raw material prices[192](index=192&type=chunk) [Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk](index=44&type=section&id=Item%203.%20Quantitative%20and%20Qualitative%20Disclosures%20About%20Market%20Risk) The company manages market risks from currency, interest rates, and commodities using derivative instruments - Primary foreign currency exposures are the **Canadian dollar and Brazilian real**, which the company hedges up to 18 months and 12 months, respectively[205](index=205&type=chunk) Fair Value of Derivative Instruments | Derivative Type | June 30, 2025 | December 31, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Foreign Currency Contracts** | $27.6 M | $(82.6) M | | **Natural Gas Contracts** | $(0.1) M | $(1.8) M | [Item 4. Controls and Procedures](index=46&type=section&id=Item%204.%20Controls%20and%20Procedures) Management concluded that disclosure controls and procedures were effective with no material changes to internal controls - The principal executive officer and principal financial officer concluded that the company's disclosure controls and procedures were **effective** as of the end of the reporting period[211](index=211&type=chunk) - **No changes** in internal control over financial reporting occurred during the quarter that materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, internal controls[212](index=212&type=chunk) [PART II. OTHER INFORMATION](index=47&type=section&id=PART%20II.%20OTHER%20INFORMATION) [Item 1. Legal Proceedings](index=47&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Legal%20Proceedings) The company is engaged in legal proceedings concerning countervailing duties, a class action lawsuit, and environmental matters - The company is actively involved in litigation to uphold the **countervailing duty (CVD) orders** on phosphate fertilizers from Morocco and Russia, with multiple administrative reviews and appeals ongoing[213](index=213&type=chunk)[214](index=214&type=chunk)[215](index=215&type=chunk) - A putative class action lawsuit (Cruz Litigation) alleges elevated radiation levels on reclaimed mining land; the company's motion to dismiss was denied and it intends to continue a **vigorous defense**[218](index=218&type=chunk)[220](index=220&type=chunk) - An EPA action regarding the Faustina Plant's Risk Management Plan was **settled via a Consent Agreement**, which included a penalty payment of $217,085[221](index=221&type=chunk) [Item 1A. Risk Factors](index=49&type=section&id=Item%201A.%20Risk%20Factors) Important risk factors are detailed in the company's 2024 Annual Report on Form 10-K - The company's risk factors are detailed in its **2024 Form 10-K report**[223](index=223&type=chunk) [Item 2. Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds](index=49&type=section&id=Item%202.%20Unregistered%20Sales%20of%20Equity%20Securities%20and%20Use%20of%20Proceeds) The company did not repurchase any shares of its common stock during the second quarter of 2025 - **No shares of common stock were purchased** under the company's repurchase programs during the quarter ended June 30, 2025[225](index=225&type=chunk) [Item 5. Other Information](index=49&type=section&id=Item%205.%20Other%20Information) A senior executive established a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan for the potential sale of company stock - A senior executive, Walter Precourt, entered into a **Rule 10b5-1 trading plan** to sell up to 12,000 shares of common stock[227](index=227&type=chunk)

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated net income of $411 million and adjusted EBITDA of $566 million in Q2 2025, compared to a net loss of $162 million and adjusted EBITDA of $584 million in the same quarter of 2024 [7][25][26] - The dollar lost value against most currencies, contributing positively to net income by $220 million [26] - The company expects EBITDA from the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment to increase due to strong demand and limited supply [12][33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Phosphate production guidance for the third quarter is set at 1.8 million to 2 million tons, with annual guidance now at 6.9 million to 7.2 million tons [11][36] - Potash production guidance has been increased to 9.3 million to 9.5 million tons due to strong global demand [12][36] - The Biosciences segment's revenues more than doubled in the first half compared to the previous year, with expectations to contribute positively to adjusted EBITDA starting in Q4 [13][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The global phosphate market remains tight, with strong demand and limited supply expected to continue into 2026 [9][21] - In North America, import supply of phosphate is down around 20% year-over-year due to tariffs, which is expected to keep domestic demand strong [20][71] - Brazilian demand for fertilizers is resilient despite higher prices, with expectations for record shipments this year [21][24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on improving operating performance and enhancing reliability in its phosphate production business [5][6] - The new Pomeranci facility adds 1 million tons of distribution capacity, reinforcing the company's market presence in Brazil [13] - The company aims to achieve $250 million in cost reductions by 2026 through various operational efficiencies [35][89] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in a strong second half of 2025, driven by improved production volumes and favorable market conditions [6][36] - The company does not anticipate a price reset in the second half of the year, which has occurred in previous years [8] - Management highlighted the importance of market access as a competitive advantage, especially in the context of tight supply and strong demand [6][13] Other Important Information - The company is making progress on capital allocation, expecting stronger free cash flow in the second half of the year to pay down debt and return capital to shareholders [15] - The company has achieved significant cost reductions in its operations, with plans to extend these efforts further [35] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: Can you parse out the noise from what has actually changed from your Investor Day for better or worse? - Management acknowledged the market's negative reaction and clarified that while there were extraordinary expenses, the underlying performance remains strong [40][41] Question: What was your run rate roughly in July and how are we trending in August and September? - Management indicated that July's run rate was not as expected due to delays but expressed optimism for August and September based on encouraging numbers [48][53] Question: How do the $50 million idle and turnaround one-off costs in Q2 ramp down? - Management provided a general annualized cost range for phosphates but noted the variability in turnaround costs [56][60] Question: What has Mosaic done to harden the assets against potential weather disruptions? - The company has implemented various measures to prepare for hurricane season, including hardening assets and ensuring compliance with regulatory requirements [64][66] Question: Can you talk about how tariffs have raised the costs of imports of phosphates into the United States? - Management explained that imports of phosphate face a 10% tariff, impacting the market dynamics and supporting domestic prices [70][71] Question: Can you elaborate on the government's reduction in support for farmer financing of input costs? - Management noted that while the first half of the market was strong, the summer season for soybeans is slower, which may impact demand [93][98]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net income of $411 million and adjusted EBITDA of $566 million for Q2 2025, compared to a net loss of $162 million and adjusted EBITDA of $584 million in the same quarter of 2024 [7][25]. - The dollar's depreciation against other currencies contributed positively, reversing previous foreign exchange effects by $220 million [25]. - The company expects earnings growth to accelerate in the remainder of 2025 due to strong market conditions and cost reduction efforts [6][15]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Phosphate production guidance for the third quarter is set at 1.8 million to 2 million tons, with annual guidance now at 6.9 million to 7.2 million tons [11]. - Potash production guidance has been increased to 9.3 million to 9.5 million tons due to strong global demand and completed maintenance activities [12]. - The Mosaic Fertilizantes segment is expected to see EBITDA growth driven by cost reductions and higher realized prices, despite facing credit issues [13][31]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The global phosphate market remains tight, with robust farmer demand, particularly from India, which is addressing two years of pent-up demand [9][20]. - Potash prices are expected to hold steady due to strong demand and limited supply, with U.S. customers indicating normal demand despite higher prices [21][23]. - Brazilian fertilizer shipments are anticipated to reach record levels, supported by increased input demand in the first half of the year [20]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on improving operating performance and enhancing reliability in its phosphate production business, with significant maintenance work now completed [5][10]. - The new Pomeranci facility adds 1 million tons of distribution capacity, reinforcing the company's market presence in Brazil [13]. - The company aims to achieve $250 million in cost reductions by 2026 through further operational efficiencies and automation [34]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong market fundamentals for fertilizers, despite some macroeconomic pressures affecting agriculture [16][17]. - The company does not foresee a significant price reset in the phosphate market in the near term, expecting tight supply dynamics to persist into 2026 [8][20]. - Management highlighted the importance of market access as a competitive advantage, allowing the company to respond to demand fluctuations effectively [6][15]. Other Important Information - The company is making progress on capital allocation, with expectations for stronger free cash flow in the second half of the year, which will facilitate debt repayment and shareholder returns [15]. - The Biosciences segment has seen revenues more than double compared to the previous year, with expectations for positive EBITDA contributions starting in Q4 [14]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Share price performance and changes since Investor Day - Management acknowledged the market's negative reaction and clarified that while there were extraordinary expenses, the underlying performance remains strong [38][40]. Question: Run rate and production trends - Management indicated that July's run rate was not as expected due to delays but expressed optimism for August and September based on encouraging production numbers [46][52]. Question: Idle and turnaround costs - Management provided insights on the expected ramp-down of extraordinary costs, emphasizing the variability in turnaround expenses and historical averages [54][56]. Question: Hurricane season preparations - The company has implemented measures to harden assets against potential weather disruptions and has completed crisis planning for the hurricane season [61][63]. Question: Tariff impacts on phosphate imports - Management discussed the current tariff situation, noting a 10% tariff on phosphate imports and its indirect effects on the market [70][72]. Question: Specialty phosphate pricing and market conditions in Brazil - Management addressed concerns about pricing in the phosphate division and the impact of government financing support for farmers, highlighting a slower market in Brazil [91][96].

Financial Performance - Consolidated revenues reached $3,006 million[6], with an adjusted EBITDA of $566 million[6] - Net income was $411 million[6] Segment Results - Phosphate segment net revenues were $1,173 million[6], with an adjusted EBITDA of $217 million[6], but an operating loss of $8 million[6] - Potash segment net revenues were $711 million[6], with operating earnings of $194 million[6] and an adjusted EBITDA of $278 million[6] - Mosaic Fertilizantes segment net revenues were $1,175 million[6], with operating earnings of $109 million[6] and an adjusted EBITDA of $159 million[6] Production and Sales Volumes - Phosphate sales and production volumes were both 1.5 million tonnes[8] - Potash sales volume was 2.3 million tonnes[11] and production volume was 2.1 million tonnes[11] - Mosaic Fertilizantes sales volumes were 2.2 million tonnes[14], including 1.1 million tonnes of produced products[14] Guidance and Targets - Phosphate Q3 sales volume is expected to be in the range of 1.8 to 2.0 million tonnes[19] - Potash 2025 production volume guidance raised to 9.3 to 9.5 million tonnes[19] - Mosaic Fertilizantes Q3 adjusted EBITDA is expected to be above $200 million[15, 19] Cost Reduction and Capital Allocation - The company achieved $150 million in cost reductions and expanded the target to $250 million by the end of 2026[19, 31] - Capital expenditures for the full year 2025 are projected to be $1.2 to $1.3 billion[45] Market Dynamics - North America and Brazil each represent less than 15% of global phosphate demand and less than 20% of global potash demand[53]

Core Insights - The Mosaic Company (MOS) reported a net profit of $411 million or $1.29 per share for Q2 2025, a significant improvement from a loss of $162 million or $0.50 per share in the same quarter last year [1] - Adjusted earnings per share were 51 cents, down from 54 cents a year ago, and below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 67 cents [1] - Net sales increased by nearly 6.7% year over year to $3,005.7 million, but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3,130.5 million [2] Segment Highlights - Potash segment net sales were $711 million, up approximately 7.2% from $663 million in the prior-year quarter, with a gross margin increase to $89 per ton from $79 per ton [3] - Phosphate division net sales remained flat at $1.2 billion, with sales volume down to 1.5 million tons from 1.7 million tons last year, and a gross margin decrease to $67 per ton from $91 per ton [4] - Mosaic Fertilizantes segment net sales were $1.2 billion, up about 20% year over year, with a gross margin increase to $73 per ton from $46 per ton [5] Financial Overview - At the end of the quarter, Mosaic had cash and cash equivalents of $286.2 million, down 11.1% year over year, and long-term debt of $3,331.3 million, up 4.3% [6] - Net cash provided by operating activities was $609.5 million in the reported quarter [6] Outlook - For full-year 2025, phosphate production volumes are expected to range between 6.9 million and 7.2 million tons, while potash production is projected at 9.3 million to 9.5 million tons [7] - Total capital expenditures are estimated at $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion, with SG&A expenses forecasted between $520 million and $550 million [8] Q3 2025 Projections - For Q3 2025, phosphate sales volumes are expected between 1.8 million and 2.0 million tons, with DAP FOB plant prices ranging from $700 to $720 [9] - Potash sales volumes are projected at 2.2 million to 2.4 million tons, with MOP FOB mine prices estimated between $270 and $290 [9] Price Performance - Mosaic's shares have declined by 34.2% over the past year, compared to a 28.5% decline in the industry [12]

Core Insights - Mosaic reported $3.01 billion in revenue for the quarter ended June 2025, a year-over-year increase of 6.7%, but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.13 billion, resulting in a surprise of -3.99% [1] - The company's EPS for the same period was $0.51, down from $0.54 a year ago, with an EPS surprise of -23.88% compared to the consensus estimate of $0.67 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Total finished product sales volume for Mosaic Fertilizantes was 2,232.00 KTon, below the average estimate of 2,361.96 KTon [4] - The average finished product selling price for potash was $274.00, compared to the estimated $286.04 [4] - Phosphate sales volumes for total finished products were 1,546.00 KTon, lower than the average estimate of 1,616.75 KTon [4] - Net sales for potash reached $710 million, exceeding the estimated $683.63 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 7.1% [4] - Net sales for Mosaic Fertilizantes totaled $1.18 billion, slightly below the average estimate of $1.22 billion, but reflecting a year-over-year change of 12% [4] - The corporate and other segment reported a net sales figure of -$53 million, worse than the estimated -$50.28 million, marking a year-over-year decline of 29.3% [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Mosaic shares have returned -5.8%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has increased by 1% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]