I either put my money into low cost funds or in single stocks that (I think) are asymmetric bets. My portfolio is roughly 50/50 between the two. I like to write about Macro and Fundamentals, with the (painful) awareness that Momentum and Sentiment are what really matters. That’s the reason I never try to time the market and I only buy stocks if I am willing to hold them for at least 10 years.When it comes to fundamentals, I think everybody knows the market is forward looking, but few truly understand what t ...

Tesla - Tesla aims to launch its robotaxi service and achieve full self-driving capabilities, targeting to make these available to half of the U.S. population by the end of the year [5][4] - The company plans to deliver a more affordable electric vehicle (EV) by maximizing production in Q3 for deliveries in Q4, despite potential challenges from losing EV incentives [6][4] - Tesla's recent Q2 results met Wall Street expectations, avoiding a second consecutive miss on both top and bottom lines, with executives expressing confidence in the company's ambitious plans [3][4] Chipotle - Chipotle reported a 3.0% increase in total revenue due to new store openings, but comparable sales fell 4.0%, worse than the expected decline of -2.9% [7] - The company anticipates flat comparable restaurant sales growth for the full year following a 4.9% drop in transactions during the last quarter [7] Economic Context - President Trump is scheduled to visit the Federal Reserve, marking a significant event as it is the first visit by a sitting U.S. president in nearly two decades, which may challenge the central bank's independence [8]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla reported a decline in automotive sales for the second consecutive quarter, leading to a 6% drop in shares during premarket trading, with automotive revenue falling 16% year-on-year to $16.7 billion [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Tesla's second-quarter results showed a miss on both top and bottom lines, with automotive revenue decreasing to $16.7 billion [1]. - The company has experienced a nearly 18% decline in stock value year-to-date, excluding the recent premarket drop [3]. Group 2: Market Challenges - Elon Musk indicated that Tesla might face "a few rough quarters" due to the expiration of federal electric vehicle tax credits, although he did not confirm this outcome [2]. - Rising competition in key markets such as China and Europe, particularly from lower-cost Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers, is impacting Tesla's market position [2]. - Data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association revealed a decline in Tesla's new car registrations in Europe for June [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's performance in Q2 2025 shows a sequential recovery, with total revenue of $22.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.8% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.3%. The gross margin improved to 17.2% [1] - The automotive business in China remains robust, with global deliveries of 384,000 units in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.1%. The automotive business revenue reached $16.66 billion, with an average selling price (ASP) of approximately $42,000 [2] - The focus is shifting from fundamentals to AI-driven initiatives, particularly the Robotaxi and humanoid robots. The Robotaxi is seen as a viable low-cost solution for Level 4 autonomy, with expectations for rapid expansion in the U.S. market [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q2 2025 total revenue was $22.5 billion, with a gross margin of 17.2%. Non-GAAP net profit was $1.39 billion, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 49.1% [1] - The automotive business revenue was $16.66 billion, with a gross margin of 15.0% [2] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a positive trend in the Chinese market, with new models expected to launch in Q4 2025, including the Model YL and Model 3+ [2] - The AI sector is expected to drive future growth, with the introduction of Grok 4 and the ongoing development of Robotaxi and humanoid robots [3] Valuation Adjustments - The report adjusts the Non-GAAP net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 downwards by 14%, 11%, and 4% respectively, reflecting uncertainties in overseas policies and market conditions [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's performance in Q2 2025 shows a sequential recovery, with total revenue of $22.5 billion, reflecting a 16.3% increase quarter-over-quarter, despite a year-over-year decline of 11.8% [1] - The automotive business in China remains robust, with global deliveries of 384,000 units in Q2 2025, a 14.1% increase from the previous quarter, although down 13.5% year-over-year [2] - The focus is shifting from fundamentals to AI-driven initiatives, particularly the Robotaxi and humanoid robots, with the Robotaxi trial operation expanding and the introduction of Grok 4 AI model showing competitive advantages [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q2 2025 total revenue was $22.5 billion, with a gross margin of 17.2%, and Non-GAAP net profit of $1.39 billion, reflecting a 49.1% increase quarter-over-quarter [1] - Automotive revenue was $16.66 billion, with an average selling price (ASP) of approximately $42,000, and a gross margin of 15.0% [2] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a marginal upward trend in the Chinese market for the second half of 2025, driven by new model launches such as the Model YL and Model 3+ [2] - The report highlights the importance of the Robotaxi initiative in validating low-cost L4 solutions, with expectations for rapid expansion in the U.S. market [3] Valuation Adjustments - The report adjusts the Non-GAAP net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 down by 14%, 11%, and 4% respectively, reflecting ongoing uncertainties in overseas policies and market conditions [4] - The valuation framework is shifting towards AI-driven metrics, with the current market capitalization partially reflecting expectations for Robotaxi [4]

Core Insights - Tesla has experienced a decline in market share in Europe for the sixth consecutive month, with its market share dropping to 2.8% in June from 3.4% the previous year [1] - New car registrations for Tesla fell to 34,781 units in June, representing a 22.9% decrease compared to June 2024 [2] - The overall trend in the European automotive market shows a decline in new car registrations, affecting not only Tesla but also other major automakers [3] Market Performance - Tesla's market share in the European Union, Britain, and the European Free Trade Association has decreased, indicating a broader regional dip in new car sales [1] - The decline in Tesla's sales is attributed to strong competition and reputational challenges linked to CEO Elon Musk's public statements [2] - Major competitors like Volkswagen and Stellantis also reported year-on-year declines in new car registrations, with decreases of 6.1% and 12.3%, respectively [4]

Group 1: Tesla's Market Performance - Tesla's market cap has surpassed $1 trillion again, with shares approaching new all-time highs [1][5] - The average Wall Street price target for Tesla is $299.56 per share, indicating a 10% downside potential over the next 12 months [1] - Tesla stock is priced at 12.2 times sales, which is higher than competitors Rivian and Lucid, trading at 2.9 and 9.3 times sales respectively [7] Group 2: Analyst Sentiment and Sales Growth - Analysts are generally bearish on Tesla due to stagnating revenue projections and a decline in EV sales, with a 4.4% year-over-year drop in April [2][3] - Despite the bearish outlook, some analysts, like Dan Ives, believe Tesla's robotaxi division could significantly increase the company's value, potentially doubling the stock price by the end of 2026 [5][8] - Competitors such as Rivian and Lucid are expected to grow between 5% and 75%, contrasting with Tesla's projected stagnation [3]

Core Insights - Tesla urges American consumers to purchase vehicles now due to limited supply and the impending removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit by the end of the quarter [1][2] - The company reported second-quarter revenue of $22.5 billion, marking its sharpest quarterly revenue decline in at least the last 10 years, with earnings per share at 40 cents, below Wall Street's estimate of 42 cents [9][10] - Tesla's stock fell over 4% after hours on the earnings report and is down 17.6% year-to-date [11] Supply and Demand - Limited vehicle supply in the U.S. is expected this quarter, prompting the CFO to recommend placing orders immediately [2] - The removal of the EV tax credit is seen as beneficial for smaller competitors like Lucid and Rivian, who are less reliant on such incentives [2] Financial Performance - Tesla delivered over 384,000 vehicles in the quarter ending in June [3] - The company is experiencing a "weird transition period" as it adjusts to the expiration of incentives and the regulatory environment for autonomous vehicles [8] Cost Pressures - The CFO indicated that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have raised costs by approximately $300 million this quarter [9] - Tesla is beginning to reduce planned incentives as vehicle sales increase, including perks like free supercharging and discounts for certain groups [3]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk revealed that the company's upcoming budget-friendly electric vehicle (EV) will resemble the Model Y, addressing investor inquiries during the latest earnings call [1][2][3]. Group 1: Product Details - The new affordable model is described as "just a Model Y," indicating a close resemblance to the existing model [3]. - No specific details regarding the model's features or release date were provided, although production of new vehicles, including more affordable options, is expected to begin in the first half of the year [3]. - The self-driving capabilities of the new model are anticipated to enhance affordability for customers, allowing them to potentially earn money by renting out their vehicles [5][6]. Group 2: Market Context - Musk identified the primary barrier to EV ownership as financial constraints, stating that many potential buyers lack sufficient funds rather than desire for the vehicles [4]. - The Model Y was the best-selling car globally in 2023, but Tesla faces increasing competition from lower-cost EVs offered by Chinese manufacturers [12]. - In the second quarter of 2025, Tesla's sales in China dropped nearly 12% year-over-year, with the company selling 129,000 vehicles [13].

Core Insights - Tesla's second-quarter earnings revealed the steepest year-over-year revenue decline in a decade, falling below Wall Street estimates, leading to a more than 4% drop in share price after the earnings call [1] - CEO Elon Musk indicated that the company is entering a "weird transition period" due to shifting tariffs, unclear fiscal policy impacts, and political sentiment, suggesting potential rough quarters ahead [1][2] - Despite challenges, Musk expressed optimism for Tesla's economics by the end of next year as the company navigates waning EV incentives and evolving autonomous vehicle regulations [2] Group 1: Financial Performance and Future Outlook - The latest earnings report indicates that Tesla's core auto business may have seen the worst behind it, although it remains below what fundamentals would suggest for a trillion-dollar company [3] - Musk anticipates that a more affordable Tesla model, resembling the Model Y, will be available to the public in the fourth quarter [11] - The company plans to expand its vehicle offerings, including the first builds of a more affordable model in June, with volume production expected in the second half of 2025 [13] Group 2: Robotaxi Development - Tesla executives provided updates on the Robotaxi initiative, planning a quasi-robotaxi expansion in the San Francisco Bay Area, with a driver present to expedite the process while awaiting regulatory approval [8][12] - The current Robotaxi service in Austin is limited to select Tesla influencers and investors, with human safety monitors present during rides [9] - Musk has previously missed deadlines for Robotaxi timelines, raising questions about future projections [10] Group 3: Shareholder Concerns and Governance - Musk expressed concerns about his control over Tesla, fearing he could be ousted by activist shareholders if his shares decrease [14] - A significant majority of direct Tesla shareholders (51%) prefer Musk to focus more on the company rather than his political involvement [16] - The CFO declined to discuss potential investments in Musk's other company, xAI, during the earnings call, indicating a desire to keep the focus on Tesla [17][18]