Group 1 - The report highlights that the actual GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 in China exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, compared to the forecast of 5.17% and the previous value of 5.4% [1] - The report suggests a focus on three main investment directions: technology AI+ led by Deepseek breakthroughs and open-source initiatives, valuation recovery in consumer stocks, and the continued rise of undervalued dividends [1] - The report indicates that the U.S. core CPI growth in June was below expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, compared to the previous value of 2.8% and the forecast of 3.0% [1] Group 2 - The report outlines that the Science and Technology Innovation Board (STAR Market) has received support through 15 reform measures aimed at creating a comprehensive policy loop covering the entire lifecycle of fundraising, investment, lending, insurance, and exit [2] - It notes that mergers and acquisitions on the STAR Market are highly concentrated among private enterprises, with 202 private companies forming the core of M&A activities, reflecting the board's focus on hard technology and nurturing innovative entities [2] - The report anticipates further breakthroughs in the "14th Five-Year Plan" regarding refined stratification mechanisms, diversified listing standards, optimized investor structures, and enhanced international collaboration [2] Group 3 - The report indicates that the banking sector's fundamentals are stabilizing, with a significant narrowing of net interest margin decline expected in 2025, projected at 1.34% for state-owned banks and 1.55% for joint-stock banks [10] - It emphasizes that the valuation recovery driven by the funding environment is a core logic supporting the current market trend, with continuous inflow of incremental funds boosting bank sector valuations [10] - The report recommends focusing on quality regional small and medium-sized banks, particularly Chengdu Bank and China Agricultural Bank, as well as China Bank and Postal Savings Bank among state-owned banks [10] Group 4 - The report discusses the strong growth potential of Hengxin Life, a leading company in biodegradable food service products, with a projected net profit of 2.58 billion to 3.74 billion for 2025-2027, corresponding to a PE ratio of 34 to 24 [18] - It highlights the company's extensive customer base, including major brands like Starbucks and McDonald's, which enhances its market presence and brand image [18] - The report notes that the company's production capacity has reached 9 billion units of paper and plastic food service products, with a new factory in Thailand optimizing its global layout [18] Group 5 - The report indicates that the education sector, particularly Xueda Education, is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for Q2 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 39% to 66% [20][22] - It emphasizes the recovery of the company's store opening pace, with the number of learning centers increasing from over 240 to over 300, indicating a positive market demand for personalized education [22] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 2.61 billion, 3.30 billion, and 4.08 billion, with corresponding PE ratios of 24, 19, and 15 [22]

Core Viewpoint - The construction of the Bise Bridge in Tunisia, the largest ongoing bridge project in the country, has officially entered the main structural construction phase with the drilling of the first permanent pile on July 18, 2023, marking a significant milestone for the project [2] Group 1: Project Overview - The Bise Bridge project spans a total length of 2070 meters, with a main span of 292.5 meters and a bridge deck width of 25 meters, accommodating four lanes of traffic and pedestrian pathways [2] - The project is funded by the European Investment Bank and the African Development Bank, with a signed contract amounting to approximately 1.42 billion RMB [2] - The construction is expected to take 38 months, with a completion date set for July 18, 2024, utilizing an EPC (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction) model [2] Group 2: Technical and Environmental Considerations - The project team has developed control process plans for key construction techniques, including high-altitude steel truss installation, long trestles, large platforms, and ultra-long pile foundations in the sea [2] - A comprehensive ecological baseline survey was conducted over three months to identify the ecological environment and biodiversity characteristics, laying the groundwork for ongoing ecological monitoring [2] - Advanced measures such as floating barriers to control suspended solids and mist cannons to suppress dust will be implemented to minimize environmental impact during construction [2] Group 3: Economic and Social Impact - The Bise Bridge will alleviate traffic congestion caused by the previous old bridge, which required scheduled closures for shipping, thus enhancing regional economic development and improving local residents' travel conditions [2]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The construction index rose by 0.32% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.07%, indicating that the construction sector underperformed the market by 0.75 percentage points. Professional engineering, architectural design, and infrastructure sectors showed stronger gains [1][33] - Infrastructure investment continued to support the economy, with energy-related and water conservancy investments maintaining strength, while transportation infrastructure showed signs of recovery. For the first half of 2025, real estate development investment, narrow infrastructure, broad infrastructure, and manufacturing grew by -11.2%, +4.6%, +8.9%, and +7.5% year-on-year, respectively [1][13] - Recent disclosures of second-quarter orders from central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) indicate a recovery trend, with China Railway's second-quarter orders showing a year-on-year growth of 20.08%. The overall order situation for central SOEs is optimistic, suggesting a rebound in physical workload [2][27] Summary by Sections Macro and Micro Verification of Infrastructure Recovery - Infrastructure investment in June continued to provide support, with energy and water conservancy investments remaining strong, while transportation infrastructure showed signs of recovery. The year-on-year growth rates for real estate development investment, narrow infrastructure, broad infrastructure, and manufacturing from January to June 2025 were -11.2%, +4.6%, +8.9%, and +7.5%, respectively [1][13][14] Recent Order Disclosures from Central SOEs - Central SOEs such as China Railway, China Energy Construction, China Chemical, and China Nuclear Engineering reported a recovery in second-quarter orders. For instance, China Railway's first-half orders showed a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, with a significant increase in the second quarter [2][27][28] Valuation Perspective - As of July 18, the construction sector's PE (TTM) and PB (LF) ratios were among the lowest across all primary industries, indicating significant room for valuation improvement. The construction sector's PE (TTM) was 11.12 times, with a historical percentile of 48.50%, compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300's PE of 13.39 times [3][30][32]

Group 1 - The opening ceremony for the permanent pile drilling of the Bizerte Bridge in Tunisia, constructed by Sichuan Road and Bridge Group, marks the transition to the main structure construction phase [1][2] - The project is funded by the European Investment Bank and the African Development Bank, with a contract amount of approximately 1.42 billion RMB and a construction period of 38 months [4] - The Bizerte Bridge, spanning 2070 meters with a main span of 292.5 meters, will significantly improve local traffic conditions and enhance regional connectivity [4][7] Group 2 - The project aims to alleviate long-standing traffic issues caused by the old bridge, which frequently closes for ship passage, leading to significant delays for local residents [4][7] - The construction is expected to enhance the attractiveness and openness of the region, contributing positively to the socio-economic development of Tunisia [7]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant adjustments in the heavy holdings of Liu Gesong's six funds managed by GF Fund, particularly in the new energy vehicle and semiconductor sectors, with a notable shift towards new consumption, internet, and military industries [1][2]. Fund Holdings Adjustment - Liu Gesong's funds have reduced their positions in several previously favored stocks, including: - North Huachuang: Holdings decreased by approximately 17.69% to 161,240 shares [2]. - Seres: Holdings reduced by 9.14% [6]. - EVE Energy: Holdings decreased by 4.16% [6]. - JinkoSolar: Holdings down by 10.77% [6]. - Conversely, there has been a significant increase in holdings of stocks such as: - DeYe Co.: Increased by 40% [3][8]. - Xichuang Data: Increased by nearly 76% [3]. - Xiaomi Group-W: Increased by 25.66% [7]. Fund Performance - The overall performance of Liu Gesong's funds in Q2 was underwhelming, with all funds experiencing net redemptions: - The best-performing fund, GF Multi-Dimensional Emerging, recorded a net value growth rate of 7.91% [4]. - Other funds, such as GF Small Cap Growth A and C, reported growth rates of 2.38% and 2.28%, respectively [4]. - GF Innovation Upgrade and GF Technology Pioneer recorded negative returns [4]. Market Context - The A-share market saw mixed performance in Q2, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.26% and the Shenzhen Component Index slightly declining by 0.37% [5]. - Key sectors such as military, banking, and telecommunications showed significant gains, while sectors like food and beverage, home appliances, and steel performed poorly [5]. - Liu Gesong remains optimistic about the domestic economy's resilience, citing factors such as the easing of geopolitical tensions and supportive domestic policies [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Reducing Volatility ETF (512890) has shown a positive performance with a 0.50% increase, reflecting strong investor interest and inflows, particularly from insurance funds seeking stable returns [1][2][3]. Fund Performance - As of July 18, the Reducing Volatility ETF (512890) closed at 1.214 CNY, with a half-day trading volume of 245 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.12% [1][2]. - The ETF has experienced a net inflow of 1.693 billion CNY over the last five trading days and a cumulative net inflow of 2.147 billion CNY over the past ten trading days [1][2]. - The latest fund size for the Reducing Volatility ETF (512890) is 21.872 billion CNY as of July 17 [1]. Market Context - The Ministry of Finance issued a notice on July 11 aimed at guiding insurance funds towards long-term stable investments, which is expected to provide ongoing support for high-dividend sectors [1][3]. - Financial analysts believe that the new regulations will encourage insurance capital to increase equity allocations, particularly in bank stocks, which are characterized by high dividends and low volatility [1][3]. Top Holdings - The top holdings of the Reducing Volatility ETF (512890) include Chengdu Bank, Yageo, Industrial Bank, and Shanghai Bank, with respective price changes of +0.60%, +0.27%, +0.41%, and +0.92% [3][4]. - The fund's performance is benchmarked against the CSI Reducing Volatility Index, and it is managed by Liu Jun [3][5]. Investment Options - Investors seeking stable returns and low-risk alternatives can consider the Reducing Volatility ETF (512890) through its linked funds, which include various classes such as A, C, I, and Y [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company has shown significant growth in its bidding amounts for infrastructure projects, indicating a strong focus on its core business and a positive outlook for future orders [2][4]. Group 1: Bidding Performance - In Q2, the company achieved a total bidding amount of 37.559 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 25% [2]. - For the first half of the year, the cumulative bidding amount reached 72.24 billion yuan, up 22.2% year-on-year [2]. - The infrastructure sector accounted for 61.74 billion yuan of the total bidding in the first half, reflecting a growth of 25.88% [2]. - The construction sector saw a cumulative bidding amount of 10.412 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.34% [2]. - Other business areas experienced a slight decline, with a cumulative bidding amount of 0.89 billion yuan, down 4.37% year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Future Project Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the gradual rollout of highway projects in Sichuan Province in the second half of 2024, with multiple highway projects already won as an investor [2][3]. - A total of 36 highway projects were introduced in June 2024, covering approximately 4,100 kilometers and involving a total investment of about 840 billion yuan [2]. - The company successfully won bids for eight highway projects with a total investment exceeding 260 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Industry Growth Potential - The total scale of highways in Sichuan Province is projected to reach approximately 20,000 kilometers by 2035, indicating sustained demand for construction [3]. - In 2024, Sichuan is expected to complete the construction of 507 kilometers of new highways, bringing the total operational mileage to 10,310 kilometers, ranking third in the country [3]. - The company anticipates that project preparations will accelerate in the second half of 2024, leading to increased order conversion during the peak construction periods in Q3 and Q4 [3]. Group 4: Dividend and Valuation - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio from 50% to 60% for 2025, maintaining this level through 2027 [4]. - If the company achieves an estimated profit of 8 billion yuan in 2025, the corresponding dividend yield would exceed 6% [4]. - The projected earnings for 2025-2027 are estimated at 8.29 billion, 9.25 billion, and 10.4 billion yuan, respectively, with current valuations of 9.03, 8.09, and 7.19 times [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Sichuan Road and Bridge (600039.SH) is "Buy" and is maintained [11]. Core Views - The company reported a total winning bid amount of 37.559 billion yuan in Q2, representing a year-on-year increase of 25%. The cumulative winning bid for the first half of the year reached 72.24 billion yuan, up 22.2% year-on-year [2][8]. - The company focuses on its infrastructure business, with significant growth in orders. The winning bids in the infrastructure sector for the first half of the year totaled 61.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.88% [13]. - The company is expected to benefit from the gradual rollout of highway projects in Sichuan Province in the second half of 2024, with a total investment of approximately 840 billion yuan for 36 highway projects [13]. - The demand for highway construction in Sichuan is projected to remain strong, with an expected total scale of about 20,000 kilometers by 2035 [13]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio from 50% to 60% for 2025, enhancing its dividend appeal [13]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Sichuan Road and Bridge focuses on infrastructure projects, with a significant increase in winning bids in Q2 and the first half of the year [2][8]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 107.238 billion yuan for 2024, with projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 114.062 billion yuan, 123.626 billion yuan, and 135.262 billion yuan respectively [19]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to see accelerated project initiation in the second half of 2024, leading to a positive outlook for order conversion in Q3 and Q4 [13]. - The anticipated strong demand for infrastructure in Sichuan, coupled with the company's strategic positioning, suggests a favorable growth trajectory [13].

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - Infrastructure investment continues to support economic stability, with expectations for increased fiscal efforts in the second half of the year to drive high growth in infrastructure investment [1] - Real estate development investment has shown a decline of 11.2% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, while narrow and broad infrastructure investments have increased by 4.6% and 8.9% respectively [1] - Cement demand is stabilizing, with a production decline of 4.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, but a potential price rebound is anticipated due to local price increases in certain regions [3] - Flat glass production has decreased by 4.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with market demand remaining stable despite seasonal impacts [4] Summary by Sections Infrastructure Investment - In June, infrastructure investment growth slowed, attributed to reduced fiscal spending and weather disruptions, but remains crucial for economic stability [1] - The issuance of long-term special government bonds is expected to further support infrastructure investment [1] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales area decreased by 3.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with new construction area down by 20% [2] - Construction area saw a decline of 9.1% year-on-year, while completion area dropped by 14.8% [2] Cement Industry - Cement production in the first half of 2025 was 815 million tons, down 4.3% year-on-year, with a slight recovery in shipment rates observed in July [3] - The average cement price as of July 11 was 352 RMB per ton, down 43 RMB year-on-year [3] Glass Industry - Flat glass production in the first half of 2025 was 48.497 million weight cases, a decrease of 4.3% year-on-year, with inventory levels remaining high [4] - The price of 5mm float glass was 63.2 RMB per weight case as of July 10, showing a slight increase [4]

Group 1: Small-cap Fund Investment Opportunities - The long-term returns of small-cap stocks primarily stem from valuation improvements rather than dividends or buybacks, indicating a persistent pricing error in the market that provides alpha opportunities [8] - Small-cap stocks exhibit a longer right tail in excess return distribution compared to large-cap stocks, suggesting higher potential for extreme positive returns during bullish market cycles [8] - In a credit expansion phase, small-cap stocks tend to perform better due to a favorable monetary environment and recovering credit conditions [8] Group 2: Economic Insights - The second quarter GDP growth rate was reported at 5.2%, indicating resilience in the economy, particularly in industrial output, despite a decline in fixed asset investment growth [13] - Economic data for June showed a mixed trend, with external demand and production rebounding while consumption and investment weakened [9] - The overall economic outlook suggests a potential GDP growth rate of around 5% for the year, with ongoing challenges in domestic demand and export pressures [9] Group 3: Industry Performance - The coal industry is experiencing a decline in imports while thermal power generation continues to grow, leading to price increases as demand rises [22] - The antimony market is showing signs of recovery with potential upward price adjustments due to easing export policies and a focus on quality resource companies [23][24] - The textile and apparel sector, particularly companies like Anta Sports and 361 Degrees, is demonstrating strong sales growth, supported by effective multi-brand strategies [28][38]