证券研究报告 台积电 (TSM US) 3/5nm 需求旺盛推动全年营收上调 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(美元): 198.84 华泰研究 中报点评 2024 年 7 月 19 日│美国 半导体 风险提示:半导体周期下行,AI 需求不及预期,技术研发不达预期的风险。 研究员 黄乐平,PhD SAC No. S0570521050001 SFC No. AUZ066 leping.huang@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 研究员 丁宁 SAC No. S0570522120003 dingning021681@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 研究员 廖健雄 SAC No. S0570524030001 liaojianxiong@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 Q2 业绩超市场预期及 Q3 毛利率亮眼,上修全年营收及资本开支指引 台积电 2Q24 营收 208.2 亿美元,环比增长 10.3%,超彭博一致预期 3%; 毛利率 53.2%,环比微增 0.1pct,超彭博一致预期 0.6pct。台积电指引 3Q24 收入中位数环比增长 9. ...

业绩简评 2024 年 7 月 18 日公司披露 24Q2 业绩,公司 24Q2 实现营收 208.22 亿美元,超过之前 196~204 亿美元指引,同比增长 32.8%, 环比增长 10.3%。公司 24Q2 毛利率为 53.2%,超过之前 51%~53% 指引。公司 24Q2 实现净利润 76.57 亿美元,同比增长 29.23%,环 比增长 6.72%。 公 司 指 引 24Q3 营 收 为 224~232 亿 美 元 , 毛 利 率 为 53.5%~55.5%,营业利润率为 42.5%~44.5%。 公司上调全年 营收指引 为同比增 长略超 25% (之前为 20%~25%),同时上调 24 年 CAPEX 为 300~320 亿美元(之前为 280~320 亿美元)。 经营分析 公司先进制程营收占比持续增长,24Q2 3/5/7nm 制程营收占 晶圆营收的比例分别比为 15%、35%、17%。受益高性能计算持续高 景气度,以及智能手机需求增长,公司预计 3、5nm 产能下半年将 实现高稼动率。另外,公司预计客户对能效有较高需求,因此未 来有望快速切换到2nm制程,在2nm量产前两年的流片数将超过3 ...

TSMC's quarterly results were great, but the market also had some huge risk factors to weigh.Semiconductor stocks were hit hard in Thursday's trading, but Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 0.39%) stock managed to end the day in the green. The chip company's share price closed out the daily session up 0.4%, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.TSMC posted second-quarter results after the market closed yesterday, delivering sales and earnings for the period that beat Wall Street's expec ...

Key TakeawaysTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reported second-quarter results that beat analysts' estimates amid surging demand for artificial intelligence chips.Sales rose 40% year-over-year, while profits rose 36%, with the company projecting continued growth for the third quarter.TSMC shares gained in early trading Thursday before turning lower, extending Wednesday's losses on worries about how stricter trade restrictions and geopolitical tensions could affect the semiconductor industry. Taiwan ...

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) has seen its stock price climb 64.6% in the year-to-date period, outperforming the broader Zacks Computer & Technology sector's growth of 25.8% and the S&P 500 index's rise of 17.6%. The TSM stock is also currently trading above its 50-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend. The company is benefiting from its strong positioning in the semiconductor manufacturing field on the back of its scale and capacity, particularly for advanced technologies. ...

Geopolitics will still be a risk but it shouldn't scare away investors.In this video, I will go over Taiwan Semiconductor's (TSM -1.92%) recent earnings report and comments from management.*Stock prices used were from the trading day of July 17, 2024. The video was published on July 18, 2024. ...

Key TakeawaysTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reported second-quarter results that beat analysts' estimates amid surging demand for artificial intelligence chips.Sales rose 40% year-over-year, while profits rose 36%, with the company projecting continued growth for the third quarter.TSMC shares gained Thursday morning following the release, a day after TSMC and other semiconductor stocks tumbled on worries about how stricter trade restrictions and geopolitical tensions could affect the semiconduct ...

The semiconductor industry is the cornerstone of the global economy, underpinning the technology sector with products ranging from smartphones and computers to automobiles and advanced artificial intelligence applications. This sector witnessed a significant surge in stock prices in recent years, fueled by the increasing demand for semiconductors and a global chip shortage. However, recent months have seen a noticeable decline in chip stock prices, prompting investors to question whether this dip presents a ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics - Q2 2024 revenue increased by 13.6% sequentially in NT, or 10.3% in USD, driven by strong demand for 3nm and 5nm technologies, partially offset by smartphone seasonality [4] - Gross margin increased by 10 basis points sequentially to 53.2%, mainly due to cost improvements and favorable foreign exchange rates, partially offset by N3 ramp dilution [4] - Operating margin increased by 0.5 percentage points sequentially to 42.5%, with operating expenses accounting for 10.5% of net revenue [4] - Q2 EPS was 9.56 NT, and ROE was 26.7% [4] - Q3 2024 revenue guidance is between $22.4 billion and $23.2 billion, representing a 9.5% sequential increase or 32% YoY increase at the midpoint [7] - Q3 gross margin is expected to be between 53.5% and 55.5%, and operating margin between 42.5% and 44.5% [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - 3nm process technology contributed 15% of wafer revenue in Q2, while 5nm and 7nm accounted for 35% and 17% respectively [5] - Advanced technology (7nm and below) accounted for 67% of wafer revenue [5] - HPC revenue increased 28% QoQ, accounting for 52% of Q2 revenue, surpassing 50% for the first time [5] - Smartphone revenue decreased 1% to account for 33%, IoT increased 6% to account for 6%, Automotive increased 5% to account for 5%, and DCE increased 20% to account for 2% [5] Market Data and Key Metrics - The company ended Q2 with cash and marketable securities of 2 trillion NT ($63 billion USD) [6] - Current liabilities increased by 23 billion NT, mainly due to a 16 billion NT increase in accounts payable, while long-term interest-bearing debt increased by 9 billion NT due to corporate bond issuance [6] - Accounts receivable turnover days decreased by 3 days to 28 days, and inventory days decreased by 7 days to 83 days, primarily due to higher N3 wafer shipments [6] - Q2 cash flow from operations was 378 billion NT, with 206 billion NT spent on CapEx and 91 billion NT distributed as dividends [6] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company is narrowing its 2024 capital budget to $30 billion - $32 billion, with 70%-80% allocated to advanced process technologies, 10%-20% to specialty technologies, and 10% to advanced packaging, testing, and mask making [9] - TSMC is expanding its definition of the foundry industry to include packaging, testing, mask making, and IDM (excluding memory), estimating the market size at $250 billion in 2023, up from $115 billion under the previous definition [11] - The company expects the foundry industry to grow close to 10% YoY in 2024, with TSMC's market share increasing due to strong technology leadership and a broad customer base [12] - TSMC is investing heavily in N2, N2P, and A16 technologies, with N2 on track for volume production in 2025 and A16 scheduled for the second half of 2026 [16][17] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted strong demand for AI-related and high-end smartphone products, leading to increased capacity utilization for 3nm and 5nm technologies in H2 2024 [12] - The company expects 2024 to be a strong growth year, with revenue growth slightly above the mid-20s percentage range in USD terms [12] - TSMC is confident in achieving a long-term gross margin of 53% and higher, despite challenges such as N3 ramp dilution, higher electricity prices, and global manufacturing expansion [8] Other Important Information - TSMC introduced N2P, an extension of the N2 family, with volume production scheduled for H2 2026, and A16, featuring Super Power Rail (SPR), which offers significant power and performance improvements [17] - The company is working with OSAT partners to increase CoWoS capacity to meet customer demand, with advanced packaging margins approaching corporate averages [50] Q&A Session Summary Question: AI Accelerator and CoWoS Capacity - TSMC expects supply-demand balance for AI accelerators and CoWoS to be reached by 2025 or 2026, with CoWoS capacity growing at a 60% CAGR over the next few years [20][22] - The company plans to more than double CoWoS capacity in 2025, following a similar expansion in 2024 [23] Question: Gross Margin Outlook - Gross margins are expected to improve in H2 2024, with long-term gross margins achievable at 53% and higher, despite dilution from overseas fabs and cost inflation [24][26][29] - Subsidies and ITC credits will offset some costs, with $1.5 billion in subsidies received in 2023, mainly from Japan [31] Question: Pricing Strategy and Leading-Edge Demand - TSMC's pricing strategy is strategic and varies by customer segment, with HPC customers willing to pay more for leading-edge nodes compared to smartphone customers [33][35][38] - Leading-edge capacity is expected to remain tight through 2025, with strong demand for N3 and N5 technologies [38] Question: Geopolitical Risk and Overseas Expansion - TSMC is continuing its overseas expansion plans in Arizona, Kumamoto, and potentially Europe, with no changes to its strategy despite geopolitical risks [39][41] - The company does not anticipate tariffs on shipments to U.S. customers, as customers typically bear import tariffs [42] Question: Advanced Packaging Profitability - Advanced packaging margins are improving and approaching corporate averages, with TSMC working with OSAT partners to increase capacity [48][50] Question: N2 and A16 Capacity Planning - N2 and A16 are expected to be larger nodes than previous generations, with strong demand from AI customers migrating aggressively to these technologies [52][55] - N3E is expected to improve returns and gross margins as it ramps, with dilution from N3 expected to decrease over time [56][58] Question: Node-to-Node Conversion Strategy - TSMC may convert more N5 tools to N3 to meet strong demand, with tool commonality between N5 and N3 exceeding 90% [61][63] Question: CoWoS Technical Constraints - Migration from CoWoS-S to CoWoS-L and CoWoS-R may alleviate some capacity constraints, but overall CoWoS supply remains tight [64][67] Question: N2 Revenue Contribution and Margin Dilution - N2 revenue contribution in 2026 is expected to be larger than N3 at a similar stage, with faster gross margin dilution recovery [69][71] Question: Edge AI and Advanced Packaging - Edge AI customers are expected to adopt 3D IC or SoIC solutions in the next two years, with smartphone customers also considering these technologies [72][74] Question: Smartphone and PC Silicon Content - AI functionality is expected to increase die sizes by 5%-10%, with unit growth likely to accelerate in two years [76][78] Question: Demand Volatility and Capacity Planning - TSMC is managing demand volatility through a disciplined capacity planning process, with generative AI demand seen as more sustainable than previous cycles [80][84] Question: Super Power Rail (SPR) and Data Center Demand - SPR technology is expected to significantly reduce system-level power consumption, particularly for data center customers [86][88] Question: A16 Capacity Expansion Bottlenecks - Key bottlenecks for A16 capacity expansion include land, electricity, and talent availability [89][91] Question: Product Launch Cadence and Capacity Planning - TSMC is prepared for accelerated product launch cadences announced at Computex, with capacity planning aligned with customer needs [93][95] Question: Fan-Out Panel-Level Packaging - TSMC is exploring fan-out panel-level packaging, but the technology is not expected to mature for at least three years [96][99]

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company on Thursday beat revenue and profit expectations in the second quarter, as demand for advanced chips used in AI applications continue to surge.Here are TSMC's second-quarter results versus LSEG consensus estimates:Revenue: 673.51 billion New Taiwan dollars ($20.82 billion), vs. NT$657.58 billion expectedNet income: NT$247.85 billion, vs. NT$238.8 billion expectedTSMC reported net revenue rose 40.1% from a year ago to NT$673.51 billion, while net income increased 36 ...