Industry Overview - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry shows resilience amid macroeconomic challenges, driven by evolving consumer preferences and strong brand adaptability [1] - Key factors influencing the industry include fashion trends, consumer spending habits, economic dynamics, and seasonal variations [3] - The industry faces opportunities and challenges, requiring continuous product innovation and effective marketing while contending with fierce competition and price sensitivity [3] Key Trends - Consumer spending remains strong, with U.S. retail sales increasing by 0.6% in August, and clothing store sales rising by 1% month-over-month [4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have lowered borrowing costs, enhancing consumer flexibility for discretionary spending [4] - Retailers are expected to see increased demand during the holiday season, creating opportunities for stronger sales and revenue growth [4] Company Highlights - Deckers Outdoor Corporation, Boot Barn Holdings, Zumiez Inc., and Genesco Inc. are identified as attractive investment opportunities due to their disciplined execution and digital strength [2] - Genesco is experiencing growth driven by a refreshed product mix and strategic investments, with a projected sales growth of 3.7% and EPS growth of 71.3% [17][18] - Zumiez shows resilience with consistent comparable sales growth and a projected sales growth of 3.4% and EPS growth of 566.7% [21][22] - Boot Barn is expanding its store base and leveraging AI-powered retail innovation, with projected sales growth of 13.3% and EPS growth of 12.2% [25][26] - Deckers is performing well with its brands HOKA and UGG, projecting a sales growth of 9% [29][31] Financial Performance - The Zacks Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry ranks 80, placing it in the top 33% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating positive near-term prospects [8][9] - The industry has underperformed the broader Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector and the S&P 500 over the past year, declining by 2.9% compared to the S&P 500's growth of 18.9% [11] - The industry is currently trading at a forward P/E of 17.9X, lower than the S&P 500's 23.36X and the sector's 24.82X [14]

Core Insights - CTO Realty Growth, Inc. announced the grand opening of two new tenants, Barnes & Noble and Boot Barn, at Plaza at Rockwall, enhancing the retail offerings in a high-growth suburban market [1][2][3] Group 1: New Tenants - Barnes & Noble opened a 20,388-square-foot store on August 27, 2025, in a repurposed Staples location, aligning with CTO's strategy to attract destination-driven retail [2] - Boot Barn launched its 15,000-square-foot store on September 2, 2025, in a space previously occupied by JoAnn's, enhancing the Center's merchandising mix [3] Group 2: Plaza at Rockwall Overview - Plaza at Rockwall spans 446,487 square feet on 42 acres and is located in a rapidly growing suburb of Dallas, anchored by major retailers like Dick's Sporting Goods and Ulta Beauty [4] - The occupancy rate at the Center has improved to 99.1% following the openings of Boot Barn and Barnes & Noble [4] Group 3: Company Strategy - The openings of these retailers reflect CTO's ongoing strategy to curate a vibrant tenant mix that meets evolving consumer demand and creates long-term value for stakeholders [5]

Group 1 - The investment strategy focuses on long-only investment, evaluating companies from an operational and buy-and-hold perspective [1] - The approach does not prioritize market-driven dynamics or future price action, instead emphasizing long-term earnings power and competitive dynamics [1] - Most recommendations will be holds, indicating a cautious approach to market conditions, with only a small fraction of companies deemed suitable for purchase at any time [1] Group 2 - The articles aim to provide important information for future investors and introduce skepticism in a generally bullish market [1]

Core Insights - Boot Barn reported strong operational gains with a 19.1% sales growth for Q1 FY2026 and a 38.1% increase in diluted earnings per share (GAAP) compared to Q1 FY2025, despite falling short of analyst expectations for revenue and net income [1][2] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q1 FY2026 was $504.1 million, below the consensus estimate of $561.8 million, while earnings per share (GAAP) were $1.74, slightly under the $1.77 estimate [1][2] - Gross profit increased to $197.2 million, reflecting a gross margin of 39.1%, up from 37.0% in Q1 FY2025, driven by better buying power and a growing share of exclusive brand sales [6] - Same-store sales growth was 9.4%, significantly higher than the previous year's 1.4% [2][5] Business Operations - Boot Barn operates 473 locations nationwide, focusing on western and work-related footwear, apparel, and accessories [3] - The company opened 14 new stores during the quarter, contributing to top-line growth [5] - E-commerce accounted for 8.7% of net sales, with both brick-and-mortar and online platforms showing strong performance [5] Strategic Focus - Recent strategies include building brand identity, expanding the store base, developing exclusive brands, growing e-commerce, and fostering customer loyalty through a rewards program [4] - Exclusive brands accounted for 38.6% of consolidated sales in FY2025, with a goal to reduce sourcing risk from China to just 5% in the second half of FY2026 [7] Market Outlook - Boot Barn raised its full-year FY2026 sales outlook to between $2.10 billion and $2.18 billion, projecting a 10% to 14% increase over the prior year [10] - For Q2 FY2026, revenue guidance is set at $487 million to $495 million, with same-store sales growth projected at 4.5% to 6.5% [11]

Company Performance - Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. reported strong fiscal Q1 results with significant sales momentum and rapid earnings growth [1] - The company raised its fiscal year guidance, indicating confidence in continued performance [1] Industry Insights - The western footwear and apparel retail sector is experiencing robust demand, contributing to the positive financial results of companies like Boot Barn [1]

Core Insights - BAD BEAT Investing, led by Quad 7 Capital, has been providing investment opportunities for nearly 12 years, focusing on both long and short trades [1] - The team is recognized for their February 2020 recommendation to sell everything and go short, maintaining an average position of 95% long and 5% short since May 2020 [1] - The investment strategy emphasizes short- and medium-term investments, income generation, special situations, and momentum trades [1] Group 1 - The company comprises a team of 7 analysts with diverse expertise in business, policy, economics, mathematics, game theory, and sciences [1] - BAD BEAT Investing aims to educate investors to become proficient traders through a comprehensive playbook, providing in-depth research with clear entry and exit targets [1] - The firm has a proven track record of success in its investment strategies [1] Group 2 - Benefits of BAD BEAT Investing include understanding market dynamics, executing well-researched trade ideas weekly, and access to multiple chat rooms [2] - Subscribers receive daily summaries of key analyst upgrades and downgrades, along with learning opportunities in basic options trading and extensive trading tools [2]

Financial Performance - Boot Barn Holdings Inc reported quarterly earnings of $1.74 per share, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $1.52 per share [1] - The company reported quarterly sales of $504.067 million, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $492.339 million [1] Guidance Update - Boot Barn raised its FY2026 GAAP EPS guidance from $5.50-$6.40 to $5.80-$6.70 [2] - The sales guidance was boosted from $2.070 billion-$2.150 billion to $2.100 billion-$2.180 billion [2] Growth Highlights - CEO John Hazen noted a strong start to fiscal 2026, with high-single digit consolidated same-store sales growth and 19% overall revenue growth [3] - Demand was broad-based, showing strength across all major merchandise categories and geographies [3] Stock Performance - Boot Barn shares gained 0.2% to trade at $172.16 following the earnings announcement [3] Analyst Ratings - Piper Sandler analyst Peter Keith maintained an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $185 to $218 [5] - Keybanc analyst Ashley Owens also maintained an Overweight rating, increasing the price target from $195 to $210 [5] - BTIG analyst Janine Stichter maintained a Buy rating and raised the price target from $200 to $218 [5]

Financial Performance - Boot Barn reported revenue of $504.07 million for the quarter ended June 2025, marking a year-over-year increase of 19.1% [1] - The EPS for the same period was $1.74, compared to $1.20 a year ago, indicating significant growth [1] - The reported revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $495.72 million by 1.68% [1] - The EPS surprise was 12.26% over the consensus estimate of $1.55 [1] Key Metrics - Same Store Sales growth was 9.4%, surpassing the average estimate of 7.2% based on four analysts [4] - Boot Barn opened or acquired 14 stores, matching the average estimate based on two analysts [4] - The average store square footage at the end of the period was 11,220, slightly above the average estimate of 11,183 [4] - The total number of stores operating at the end of the period was 473, consistent with the average estimate [4] - Total retail store square footage at the end of the period was 5.31 million, exceeding the average estimate of 5.29 million [4] Stock Performance - Boot Barn shares returned +10.4% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2.7% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Company Performance - Boot Barn reported quarterly earnings of $1.74 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.55 per share, and up from $1.20 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +12.26% [1] - The company posted revenues of $504.07 million for the quarter ended June 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.68%, compared to year-ago revenues of $423.39 million [2] - Over the last four quarters, Boot Barn has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] Stock Performance - Boot Barn shares have increased approximately 16.5% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 8.2% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.18 on revenues of $483.33 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $6.29 on revenues of $2.15 billion [7] Industry Outlook - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, to which Boot Barn belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 17% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges ahead [8] - The performance of Boot Barn's stock may be influenced by the overall outlook for the industry [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter revenue increased by 19% to $504 million, with consolidated same store sales rising by 9.4% [5][17] - Earnings per diluted share grew by 38% to $1.74 compared to $1.26 in the prior year [5][19] - Merchandise margin rate increased by 180 basis points year-over-year, contributing to a gross profit increase of 26% to $197 million [5][17][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - New store growth: 14 new stores opened in Q1, bringing the total to 473 stores across 49 states [5][6] - Same store sales: Brick and mortar same store sales increased by 9.5%, driven by an 8.5% increase in transactions [7][8] - Ecommerce same store sales grew by 9.3%, with bootbarn.com accounting for approximately 75% of online sales [10][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The denim business showed strong performance, with double-digit growth in both men's and women's categories [8][31] - The work boots business experienced low single-digit positive comp growth, indicating a steady recovery [12][62] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on four strategic initiatives: new store growth, same store sales, omnichannel expansion, and merchandise margin expansion [5][12] - Plans to double the store count in the U.S. over the next several years, with a target of opening 65 to 70 new stores in fiscal 2026 [6][23] - Exclusive brand penetration increased to 40.6% of sales, with a goal to reach 50% over the next five to six years [12][49] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed caution regarding overall consumer sentiment and macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly in the second half of the year [15][21] - Despite challenges, the company remains confident in its ability to execute its strategic initiatives and drive growth [26][78] - The company raised its full-year guidance due to strong Q1 results and positive momentum into Q2 [20][21] Other Important Information - Inventory increased by 23% year-over-year to $774 million, with markdowns as a percentage of inventory below historical levels [19][20] - The company repurchased approximately 78,000 shares for $12.5 million as part of its $200 million share repurchase program [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Drivers of demand strength in Q1 and July acceleration - Management noted that transaction growth was a key driver, with broad-based strength across all regions and categories, particularly in denim [30][31] Question: Markdown levels relative to last year - Markdowns remained low compared to last year and historical levels, with expectations for this trend to continue [34][36] Question: Exclusive brand marketing initiatives - The company is focusing on marketing its exclusive brands, with successful campaigns for Hawx and Cody James, targeting blue-collar customers [38][40] Question: Tariff-related price increases - Price increases from suppliers remain at mid-single digit levels, with reticketing expected to be completed by August [42][43] Question: Competitive landscape and share gain opportunities - Management believes the company is well-positioned relative to competitors, especially with exclusive brands and inventory management [68][70] Question: Inventory management and buying plans - The company feels confident in its inventory flow and believes it has enough inventory to meet guidance and potential upside [76][77] Question: Future strategic initiatives - Management is focused on current strategic priorities and is not considering new initiatives at this time [78][79]