Financial Performance - Third quarter revenue increased by 18% year-over-year to $1.85 billion, with billings reaching $1.855 billion, a 21% increase[1][3] - Total net revenue for the three months ended October 31, 2025, was $1,853 million, a 18% increase from $1,570 million in the same period of 2024[38] - Subscription revenue reached $1,734 million, up 19% from $1,457 million year-over-year[38] - Net income for the nine months ended October 31, 2025, was $808 million, compared to $809 million for the same period in 2024[40] - Operating cash flow for the nine months ended October 31, 2025, was $1,463 million, significantly higher than $915 million in the prior year[40] - The company reported a gross profit of $1,688 million for the three months ended October 31, 2025, representing a gross margin of approximately 91%[38] Guidance and Projections - Autodesk raised its full-year guidance, projecting total revenue between $7.150 billion and $7.165 billion for fiscal 2026[10] - Fourth quarter revenue guidance is set between $1.901 billion and $1.917 billion, with GAAP EPS expected to be between $1.40 and $1.57[10] - For Q4 FY26, the GAAP EPS is projected to be between $1.40 and $1.57, with a non-GAAP EPS forecasted between $2.59 and $2.67[46] - The GAAP operating margin for FY26 is expected to be 23%, while the non-GAAP operating margin is projected at 37.5%[46] - For FY26, the GAAP EPS is estimated to be between $5.16 and $5.33, with a non-GAAP EPS forecasted between $10.18 and $10.25[47] Cash Flow and Assets - Free cash flow for the third quarter was $430 million, representing a 116% increase year-over-year[3] - The company had cash and cash equivalents of $1,989 million at the end of the period, up from $1,599 million at the beginning of the year[39] - Total current assets increased to $3,895 million as of October 31, 2025, compared to $3,482 million at the beginning of the year[39] - Total assets grew to $11,198 million from $10,833 million since January 31, 2025[39] - Net cash provided by operating activities was $439 million, resulting in free cash flow of $430 million[44] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the AECO product family grew by 23% year-over-year, totaling $921 million[7] - The Americas region generated $820 million in revenue, a 16% increase, while EMEA saw a 23% increase to $715 million[5] - Remaining performance obligations (RPO) increased by 20% year-over-year to $7.361 billion, with current RPO at $4.830 billion[7] - Unbilled deferred revenue rose by 43% year-over-year, totaling $3.515 billion[7] - Deferred revenue stood at $3,577 million as of October 31, 2025, down from $3,787 million at the beginning of the year[39] Operating Margins - GAAP operating margin improved to 25%, up 3 percentage points year-over-year, while non-GAAP operating margin was 38%, up 1 percentage point[3] - Autodesk's GAAP operating margin for the three months ended October 31, 2025, was 25%, while the non-GAAP operating margin was 38%[44] Research and Development - Research and development expenses for the three months ended October 31, 2025, were $416 million, an increase from $378 million in the same period of 2024[38] Non-GAAP Measures - The company emphasizes the importance of reviewing the reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP measures in its public disclosures[42] - Autodesk's financial results include inherent limitations due to the exclusion of certain items in non-GAAP measures, which may impact reported financial results[42]

Group 1 - The article does not provide any specific content related to a company or industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - Autodesk, Inc. is a significant player in the 3D design, engineering, and entertainment software industry, with a diverse product range and strong market presence [1] Price Target Analysis - The consensus price target for Autodesk has slightly decreased from $372.21 to $367, indicating a modest reduction in analysts' expectations [2][6] - Over the past year, the average price target increased from $352.62 to $367, reflecting generally positive sentiment among analysts [3] Performance and Challenges - Autodesk's strong performance in the Architecture, Engineering, Construction, and Operations (AECO) segment and gains in recurring revenue contribute to a positive outlook [3] - The company faces challenges such as foreign exchange pressures and the implementation of a new transaction model, which could impact performance [4] Strategic Initiatives - The successful shift in Autodesk's transaction model and rapid adoption of artificial intelligence are seen as strengths, contributing to a buy rating and a $300 price target by KeyBanc [4] - Investors should monitor the upcoming earnings report on November 25, 2025, as it could influence stock movements and analysts' price targets [5][6] Market Capitalization - Autodesk has a market capitalization of $62 billion, which is a key factor to watch for potential future changes in analysts' expectations [5]

Core Insights - Autodesk (NASDAQ: ADSK) is set to announce its earnings on November 25, 2025, with a current market capitalization of $62 billion [2] - The company reported revenue of $6.6 billion over the past twelve months, achieving operational profitability with $1.5 billion in operating profits and a net income of $1.0 billion [2] - The stock's reaction post-earnings will depend on the alignment of results and predictions with investor expectations, suggesting the importance of analyzing past performance for event-driven trading [2] Historical Performance - Over the past five years, Autodesk has recorded 19 earnings data points, resulting in 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns, indicating a 53% chance of positive returns [7] - This percentage increases to 64% when considering data from the last three years [7] - The median of the 10 positive returns is 1.4%, while the median of the 9 negative returns is -6.9% [7] Trading Strategies - Investors can prepare for earnings announcements by understanding historical probabilities and positioning themselves accordingly [3] - Analyzing the correlation between short-term (1D) and medium-term (5D) returns can inform trading strategies, particularly if a strong correlation is identified [5][6]

Core Insights - Autodesk (ADSK) is set to release its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results on November 25, with expected revenues between $1.80 billion and $1.81 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 14.95% [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share (EPS) is $2.49, indicating a year-over-year growth of 14.75% [2] Revenue and Earnings Expectations - Autodesk anticipates third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues of $1.80-$1.81 billion, with diluted non-GAAP EPS expected to be between $2.48 and $2.51 [7] - The AECO segment is a key growth driver, with revenues having grown 23.1% year-over-year in the previous quarter, indicating strong customer activity [3] Business Performance Factors - The company’s expanding subscription and recurring revenue base, along with strong billings momentum, is expected to positively impact third-quarter performance [4] - Autodesk has shown robust cash generation and effective cost management, leading to increased free cash flow and stronger margin leverage [5] Challenges and Headwinds - Autodesk faces potential headwinds from significant exposure to international markets, with currency volatility likely impacting reported results [6] - The transition to a new transaction model may pressure margins due to added costs and temporary inefficiencies [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Analyst recommendations play a significant role in influencing stock prices, but their reliability is questionable, particularly for Autodesk (ADSK) [1][5]. Group 1: Analyst Recommendations - Autodesk has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.56, indicating a consensus between Strong Buy and Buy, based on 27 brokerage firms [2]. - Out of the 27 recommendations, 19 are Strong Buy and 1 is Buy, which accounts for 70.4% and 3.7% of all recommendations respectively [2]. Group 2: Limitations of Brokerage Recommendations - Relying solely on brokerage recommendations for investment decisions may not be wise, as studies show limited success in guiding investors towards stocks with the best price increase potential [5]. - Brokerage firms often exhibit a positive bias in their ratings due to vested interests, leading to a disproportionate number of favorable ratings compared to negative ones [6][10]. Group 3: Zacks Rank vs. ABR - The Zacks Rank, which is based on earnings estimate revisions, is a more reliable indicator of a stock's near-term price performance compared to ABR [8][11]. - Zacks Rank is displayed in whole numbers (1 to 5) and is updated more frequently, reflecting timely changes in earnings estimates, unlike the ABR which may not be up-to-date [9][12]. Group 4: Current Earnings Estimates for Autodesk - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Autodesk's earnings for the current year remains unchanged at $9.92, indicating steady analyst views on the company's earnings prospects [13]. - Due to the unchanged consensus estimate and other factors, Autodesk holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting caution despite the Buy-equivalent ABR [14].

Core Insights - Autodesk (ADSK) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.49 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 14.8% [1] - Projected revenues for Autodesk are anticipated to be $1.8 billion, which represents a 15% increase from the same quarter last year [1] - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the past 30 days, indicating analysts' reassessment of their projections [1] Revenue Estimates - Analysts project 'Net Revenue- Maintenance' to be $8.95 million, indicating a decrease of 0.6% year-over-year [4] - 'Net Revenue- Other' is expected to reach $103.57 million, reflecting a decline of 0.4% from the prior year [4] - 'Net Revenue- Subscription' is forecasted at $1.69 billion, showing an increase of 16.2% year-over-year [4] - Total subscription and maintenance revenue is estimated to be $1.70 billion, marking a 16.1% increase from the previous year [5] Product Family Revenue Projections - 'Net Revenue by Product Family- M&E (Media and Entertainment)' is expected to be $102.45 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 23.4% [5] - 'Net Revenue by Product Family- Other' is projected at $40.60 million, reflecting a significant increase of 31% year-over-year [6] - 'Net Revenue by Product Family- AECO (Architecture, Engineering, Construction and Operations)' is anticipated to reach $877.99 million, showing a 16.9% increase [6] - 'Net Revenue by Product Family- MFG (Manufacturing)' is estimated at $348.82 million, indicating a 13.6% increase from the prior year [7] - 'Net Revenue by Product Family- AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT' is expected to be $425.22 million, reflecting a 6.8% increase year-over-year [7] Billings and Market Performance - Analysts estimate that 'Billings' will reach $1.84 billion, compared to $1.54 billion reported in the same quarter last year [8] - Autodesk shares have decreased by 5.5% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's decline of 0.3% [8] - Autodesk holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it is expected to closely follow overall market performance in the near term [8]

Group 1 - Autodesk's stock has underperformed in recent years primarily due to multiple expansion from 2016 to 2021, although current growth is supported by a shift to direct billings [1] - Narweena, an asset management firm, focuses on identifying market dislocations caused by misunderstandings of long-term business prospects, aiming for excess risk-adjusted returns through secular growth opportunities in markets with entry barriers [1] - The research process at Narweena emphasizes company and industry fundamentals to uncover unique insights, with a high risk appetite and long-term investment horizon targeting deeply undervalued stocks [1] Group 2 - The aging population, low population growth, and stagnating productivity growth are expected to create new investment opportunities distinct from past trends, with some industries facing stagnation or secular decline potentially improving business performance due to reduced competition [1] - Conversely, other businesses may encounter rising costs and diseconomies of scale, while economies increasingly favor asset-light businesses, leading to a declining need for infrastructure investments over time [1] - A significant amount of capital is pursuing a limited set of investment opportunities, resulting in rising asset prices and compressed risk premia over time [1]

Group 1 - Autodesk's stock has underperformed in recent years primarily due to multiple expansion from 2016 to 2021, although current growth is supported by a shift to direct billings [1] - Narweena, an asset management firm, focuses on identifying market dislocations caused by misunderstandings of long-term business prospects, aiming for excess risk-adjusted returns through secular growth opportunities in markets with entry barriers [1] - The research process at Narweena emphasizes company and industry fundamentals to uncover unique insights, with a high risk appetite and long-term investment horizon targeting deeply undervalued stocks [1] Group 2 - The aging population, low population growth, and stagnating productivity growth are expected to create new investment opportunities distinct from past trends, with some industries facing stagnation or secular decline potentially improving business performance due to reduced competition [1] - Conversely, other businesses may encounter rising costs and diseconomies of scale, while economies increasingly favor asset-light businesses, leading to a declining need for infrastructure investments over time [1] - A significant amount of capital is pursuing a limited set of investment opportunities, resulting in rising asset prices and compressed risk premia over time [1]

Group 1 - Autodesk (ADSK) is nearing a key technical support level, attracting investor interest for potential buying opportunities, supported by strong fundamentals and steady demand for its design and engineering software [2][3] - The stock is currently trading within a support zone of $282.32 to $312.04, where it has historically rebounded, with an average peak return of 15.1% observed over the last 10 years [3] - Autodesk has shown consistent revenue growth of 13.8% over the last twelve months (LTM) and an average of 11.7% over the past three years, with a free cash flow margin of nearly 28.0% and an operating margin of 22.9% LTM [6] Group 2 - Autodesk's stock has experienced significant declines during major market downturns, including a 64% drop during the Dot-Com bubble and a nearly 77% decline during the Global Financial Crisis, as well as a 52% decline due to the inflation shock of 2022 [7] - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 60.7, indicating a high valuation relative to earnings [6] - Despite robust fundamentals, Autodesk remains vulnerable to sell-offs during periods of market turmoil, as well as declines triggered by earnings releases or business updates [8]