Core Insights - Intuit Inc. is set to report its earnings on August 21, 2025, with a historical positive post-earnings reaction rate of 71% over the past five years, yielding a median gain of 2.9% [2][7] - The consensus for the upcoming quarter anticipates earnings per share (EPS) of $2.66 on revenue of $3.75 billion, compared to EPS of $1.99 on revenue of $3.18 billion in the same quarter last year [3] - Intuit's current market capitalization is $201 billion, with trailing twelve months revenue of $18 billion, operating profit of $4.7 billion, and net income of $3.5 billion [4] Earnings Reaction History - Over the last five years, Intuit experienced 12 positive and 5 negative one-day (1D) moves post-earnings, resulting in a positive hit rate of approximately 71% [7] - In the last three years, the positive reaction rate has slightly decreased to 67%, with a median positive return of 2.9% and a median negative return of -3.8% [7] Trading Strategies - A pre-earnings strategy suggests using historical probabilities of positive reactions to establish positions ahead of earnings releases [6] - A post-earnings strategy involves evaluating immediate reactions and their correlation with medium-term performance to inform trading decisions [6][8] Correlation with Peers - The performance of peers can influence Intuit's post-earnings reactions, with historical data indicating correlations between Intuit's 1D moves and those of its peers reporting around the same time [9]

Core Insights - Amgen is scheduled to release its earnings on August 5, 2025, with historical trends indicating a tendency for negative one-day returns post-announcement [2][3] - Analysts project earnings of $5.28 per share and revenue of $8.91 billion, compared to $4.97 per share and $8.39 billion in the same quarter last year [3] - The company has a market capitalization of $160 billion and reported $34 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, resulting in $7.4 billion in operating profits and a net income of $5.9 billion [4] Historical Performance - Over the past five years, Amgen's stock has declined 58% of the time following earnings announcements, with a median drop of -2.8% and a maximum one-day negative return of -7.2% [2][7] - Positive one-day returns occurred approximately 42% of the time, with the percentage increasing to 45% when considering the last three years [7] - The median of the eight positive returns was 3.6%, while the median of the eleven negative returns was -2.8% [7] Trading Strategies - Event-driven traders can utilize historical trends to inform their positioning ahead of earnings releases [6] - A strategy involves assessing the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings to guide trading decisions [6][8] - The correlation between one-day and five-day returns can indicate potential trading positions, particularly if the one-day return is positive [8]

Company Overview - Yum! Brands is the parent company of Taco Bell, KFC, Pizza Hut, and Habit Burger & Grill, with a current market capitalization of $41 billion [3] - The company is expected to announce its second-quarter earnings on August 5, 2025, with analysts estimating earnings of $1.46 per share on $1.94 billion in revenue, reflecting a 12% increase in earnings year-over-year and a 10% rise in sales [2] Financial Performance - In the past twelve months, Yum! Brands reported total revenue of $7.7 billion, with operating profits of $2.4 billion and a net income of $1.4 billion [3] - The company delivered strong Q1 results, driven by earnings growth and momentum at Taco Bell and KFC, despite a slight revenue miss [3] Historical Trends - Historically, Yum! Brands stock has exceeded expectations after earnings announcements 63% of the time, with a median increase of 1.9% in one day and a maximum observed growth of 10% [2][6] - Over the last five years, there have been 19 recorded earnings data points, with 12 positive and 7 negative one-day returns, indicating a 63% occurrence of positive returns [6] Market Reaction - The results of Yum! Brands will significantly impact market reactions against consensus expectations, and historical trends may favor event-driven traders [3][4] - The correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings can provide a relatively lower-risk strategy for traders [7]

Company Overview - Eaton Corporation plc is a multinational power management company that provides electrical, hydraulic, and mechanical power solutions for various industrial and commercial applications [2] - The company focuses on smart power management, helping customers utilize power more efficiently and sustainably [3] Financial Performance - Eaton reported impressive Q1 2025 results, with revenue increasing by 7.3% to $6.38 billion and a 9% organic growth rate, driven by strength in the Electrical and Aerospace segments [4] - Adjusted EPS climbed 13% to a record $2.72, with segment margins reaching 23.9% [4] - The company has elevated its full-year guidance, anticipating 7.5–9.5% organic growth and adjusted EPS of $11.80–12.20 [4] - Over the past twelve months, Eaton generated $25 billion in revenue, with operating profits of $4.8 billion and net income of $3.9 billion [4] Market Expectations - Analysts forecast adjusted earnings of $2.92 per share on revenue of $6.91 billion for the upcoming second-quarter earnings announcement on August 5, 2025 [3] - This forecast indicates a 7% increase in earnings year-over-year and a 9% rise in sales compared to the previous year's figures of $2.73 per share and $6.35 billion in revenue [3] Historical Performance Trends - Historically, Eaton's stock has exceeded performance expectations following earnings releases, rising 58% of the time with a median one-day increase of 3.6% and a maximum observed surge of 8% [3] - Over the past five years, there have been 19 earnings data points collected, with positive one-day returns occurring approximately 58% of the time [6] - The median of the 11 positive returns was 3.6%, while the median of the 8 negative returns was -1.6% [6] Trading Strategies - Event-driven traders can leverage historical patterns for competitive advantage, whether by positioning before earnings or reacting to movements post-release [5] - A strategy involving the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings can be effective, particularly if the 1D and 5D returns show strong correlation [7]

Core Insights - The gold market is experiencing weakness, with potential for upward movement despite current downward pressure [1] - Event-driven trading is intensifying, leading to a countdown of long and short positions [1] - The FOMC meeting may reveal hints for a potential interest rate cut in September, influencing market dynamics [1] Market Analysis - Daily RSI divergence is noted, indicating a possible turning point in the market [1] - The VIX index is approaching a critical level, suggesting an imminent increase in volatility [1] - A significant macroeconomic week is anticipated, which could trigger fluctuations in gold and silver trading [1]

Core Viewpoint - SoFi Technologies is expected to report earnings on July 29, 2025, with historical data indicating a positive stock performance following earnings reports, achieving a positive return in 69% of instances [2][7]. Earnings Expectations - Analysts predict earnings of $0.06 per share on revenue of $804 million for the upcoming report, compared to $0.02 per share on revenue of $597 million in the same quarter last year [3]. Company Financials - SoFi Technologies has a market capitalization of $23 billion and generated $2.8 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, reporting a net income of $482 million [4]. Historical Performance - Over the last five years, there have been 16 earnings data points for SoFi, with 11 positive and 5 negative one-day returns, resulting in a 69% rate of positive returns. This rate drops to 67% when considering the last three years [7]. Post-Earnings Strategy - Traders can consider pre-earnings positioning based on historical odds or analyze the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings to guide trading decisions [6][8]. Correlation with Peers - The performance of peer companies can influence SoFi's post-earnings stock reaction, with historical data showing that pricing may begin before earnings announcements [9].

Core Insights - Starbucks is set to announce its fiscal third-quarter earnings on July 29, 2025, with analysts predicting earnings of 64 cents per share and revenue of $9.3 billion, reflecting a 31% decrease in earnings year-over-year and a 2% increase in sales compared to the previous year [2] - The company reported a 50% decrease in profits for Q2, with margins falling to 6.9% due to rising labor costs in the U.S. Sales increased by 2% to $8.76 billion, but same-store sales dropped by 1% for the fifth consecutive quarter [3] - Starbucks management has refrained from providing guidance for fiscal year 2025, indicating a recalibration phase under new leadership [3] Financial Performance - Current market capitalization of Starbucks stands at $109 billion, with revenue for the past twelve months at $36 billion [3] - The company generated $4.4 billion in operating profits and reported a net income of $3.1 billion [3] Historical Earnings Trends - Historical data shows that Starbucks stock has underperformed post-earnings releases, with a 55% decrease rate and a median one-day drop of 4.4% [2] - Over the past five years, there have been 20 recorded earnings data points, with 45% resulting in positive one-day returns, which increases to 58% when considering the last three years [6] - The median of positive returns is 4.3%, while the median of negative returns is -4.4% [6]

Financial Performance - SLB is expected to report earnings of $0.75 per share on revenue of $8.51 billion for Q2 2025, reflecting a 4% decrease in earnings and a 7% drop in revenue compared to last year [2] - For Q1 2025, SLB reported a revenue decline of 3% to $8.5 billion and a net income decrease of 25% to $797 million, with North America revenue rising by 8% while international markets saw a 5% decline [3] - The company has a current market capitalization of $48 billion, with total revenue for the past twelve months amounting to $36 billion, operating profits of $6.3 billion, and net income of $4.2 billion [4] Acquisition and Market Position - SLB's $8 billion all-stock acquisition of ChampionX received final approval from UK regulators, allowing the merger to finalize, which will integrate ChampionX's chemicals and automation into SLB's production systems [3] Historical Trends and Trading Insights - Historically, SLB's stock has increased after earnings reports 50% of the time, with a median one-day gain of 2.1% and a maximum increase of 10% [2][6] - Over the past five years, there have been 20 recorded earnings data points for SLB, yielding 10 positive and 10 negative one-day returns, with a decrease in positive returns to 42% when analyzing the last three years [6] - A strategy to assess the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings can be effective, particularly if a strong correlation exists between 1D and 5D returns [7]

Group 1 - Best Buy is set to announce its fiscal first-quarter earnings on May 29, 2025, with expected earnings of $1.09 per share and revenue of $8.82 billion, indicating a 4% year-over-year decrease in earnings and flat sales growth compared to the previous year [1] - For fiscal year 2026, Best Buy forecasts revenue between $41.4 billion and $42.2 billion, with comparable sales growth of 0% to 2% year-over-year, not accounting for potential tariff effects [2] - The company anticipates consumer behavior to remain cautious due to elevated inflation impacting household expenses, leading to a value-oriented approach to discretionary spending [2] Group 2 - Best Buy's stock has historically risen 58% of the time following earnings announcements, with a median one-day increase of 3.9% and a maximum recorded increase of 14% [1][4] - Over the past five years, there have been 19 earnings data points for Best Buy, with 11 positive and 8 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 58% of the time [4] - The correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings can provide a lower-risk trading strategy, particularly if the correlation is strong [3]

Group 1 - Okta is scheduled to report earnings on May 27, 2025, with historical stock volatility around earnings releases, showing a positive one-day return in 55% of instances over the past five years, with a median positive return of 11.7% and a maximum of 26.5% [1][2] - Analysts expect Okta to report earnings of $0.77 per share on sales of $680 million for the upcoming quarter, compared to earnings of $0.65 per share on sales of $617 million in the same quarter last year [2] - Okta currently has a market capitalization of $21 billion and generated $2.6 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, with an operating loss of -$63 million but a net income of $28 million [3] Group 2 - Historical data shows 20 earnings data points over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 55% of the time, increasing to 58% over the last three years [7] - The median of the 11 positive returns is 12%, while the median of the 9 negative returns is -8.1% [7] - Strategies for event-driven traders include pre-earnings positioning based on historical odds and post-earnings positioning by examining the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns [6]