Company Overview - Costco Wholesale is set to announce its earnings on December 11, 2025, with a current market capitalization of $394 billion and revenue of $275 billion over the past twelve months [2] - The company reported operational profits of $10 billion and net income of $8.1 billion [2] Historical Performance - Over the past five years, Costco has recorded 19 earnings data points, resulting in 12 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns, indicating a positive return rate of approximately 63% [8] - The positive return rate drops to 55% when analyzing data from the last three years [8] - The median of the 12 positive returns is 2.4%, while the median of the 7 negative returns is -2.4% [8] Earnings Reaction Strategy - A strategy to capitalize on earnings announcements involves understanding historical odds and positioning ahead of the announcement or observing immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings [3] - The correlation between short-term (1D) and medium-term (5D) returns can guide trading decisions, particularly if a strong correlation is identified [5] Peer Comparison - The performance of peers can influence Costco's post-earnings stock reactions, with historical data showing the relationship between Costco's stock performance and that of peers reporting earnings prior to Costco [6] - For smoother investment options, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, which includes 30 stocks, has consistently outperformed benchmarks like the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices [7]

Core Insights - Autodesk (NASDAQ: ADSK) is set to announce its earnings on November 25, 2025, with a current market capitalization of $62 billion [2] - The company reported revenue of $6.6 billion over the past twelve months, achieving operational profitability with $1.5 billion in operating profits and a net income of $1.0 billion [2] - The stock's reaction post-earnings will depend on the alignment of results and predictions with investor expectations, suggesting the importance of analyzing past performance for event-driven trading [2] Historical Performance - Over the past five years, Autodesk has recorded 19 earnings data points, resulting in 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns, indicating a 53% chance of positive returns [7] - This percentage increases to 64% when considering data from the last three years [7] - The median of the 10 positive returns is 1.4%, while the median of the 9 negative returns is -6.9% [7] Trading Strategies - Investors can prepare for earnings announcements by understanding historical probabilities and positioning themselves accordingly [3] - Analyzing the correlation between short-term (1D) and medium-term (5D) returns can inform trading strategies, particularly if a strong correlation is identified [5][6]

Core Insights - Copart (NASDAQ: CPRT) is set to announce its earnings soon, with a current market capitalization of $40 billion and revenue of $4.6 billion over the past twelve months, achieving operational profitability with $1.7 billion in operating profits and a net income of $1.6 billion [2] Earnings Analysis - Historical data shows that Copart has had 19 earnings data points over the last five years, resulting in 7 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns, indicating a 37% chance of positive returns [6] - The percentage of positive 1D returns increases to 45% when considering the last 3 years, with a median of 2.6% for positive returns and -1.8% for negative returns [6] Trading Strategy - A strategy to consider is to analyze the correlation between short-term (1D) and medium-term (5D) returns post-earnings announcements, as a positive 1D return suggests a potential long position for the following 5 days [7] - The correlation between 1D and 5D returns is noted to be the highest, which can guide trading decisions [7] Peer Performance - The performance of peers can influence Copart's post-earnings stock reactions, with historical data reflecting the performance of peer stocks that reported earnings just before Copart [7]

Core Insights - Intuit Inc. is set to report its earnings on August 21, 2025, with a historical positive post-earnings reaction rate of 71% over the past five years, yielding a median gain of 2.9% [2][7] - The consensus for the upcoming quarter anticipates earnings per share (EPS) of $2.66 on revenue of $3.75 billion, compared to EPS of $1.99 on revenue of $3.18 billion in the same quarter last year [3] - Intuit's current market capitalization is $201 billion, with trailing twelve months revenue of $18 billion, operating profit of $4.7 billion, and net income of $3.5 billion [4] Earnings Reaction History - Over the last five years, Intuit experienced 12 positive and 5 negative one-day (1D) moves post-earnings, resulting in a positive hit rate of approximately 71% [7] - In the last three years, the positive reaction rate has slightly decreased to 67%, with a median positive return of 2.9% and a median negative return of -3.8% [7] Trading Strategies - A pre-earnings strategy suggests using historical probabilities of positive reactions to establish positions ahead of earnings releases [6] - A post-earnings strategy involves evaluating immediate reactions and their correlation with medium-term performance to inform trading decisions [6][8] Correlation with Peers - The performance of peers can influence Intuit's post-earnings reactions, with historical data indicating correlations between Intuit's 1D moves and those of its peers reporting around the same time [9]

Core Insights - Amgen is scheduled to release its earnings on August 5, 2025, with historical trends indicating a tendency for negative one-day returns post-announcement [2][3] - Analysts project earnings of $5.28 per share and revenue of $8.91 billion, compared to $4.97 per share and $8.39 billion in the same quarter last year [3] - The company has a market capitalization of $160 billion and reported $34 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, resulting in $7.4 billion in operating profits and a net income of $5.9 billion [4] Historical Performance - Over the past five years, Amgen's stock has declined 58% of the time following earnings announcements, with a median drop of -2.8% and a maximum one-day negative return of -7.2% [2][7] - Positive one-day returns occurred approximately 42% of the time, with the percentage increasing to 45% when considering the last three years [7] - The median of the eight positive returns was 3.6%, while the median of the eleven negative returns was -2.8% [7] Trading Strategies - Event-driven traders can utilize historical trends to inform their positioning ahead of earnings releases [6] - A strategy involves assessing the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings to guide trading decisions [6][8] - The correlation between one-day and five-day returns can indicate potential trading positions, particularly if the one-day return is positive [8]

Company Overview - Yum! Brands is the parent company of Taco Bell, KFC, Pizza Hut, and Habit Burger & Grill, with a current market capitalization of $41 billion [3] - The company is expected to announce its second-quarter earnings on August 5, 2025, with analysts estimating earnings of $1.46 per share on $1.94 billion in revenue, reflecting a 12% increase in earnings year-over-year and a 10% rise in sales [2] Financial Performance - In the past twelve months, Yum! Brands reported total revenue of $7.7 billion, with operating profits of $2.4 billion and a net income of $1.4 billion [3] - The company delivered strong Q1 results, driven by earnings growth and momentum at Taco Bell and KFC, despite a slight revenue miss [3] Historical Trends - Historically, Yum! Brands stock has exceeded expectations after earnings announcements 63% of the time, with a median increase of 1.9% in one day and a maximum observed growth of 10% [2][6] - Over the last five years, there have been 19 recorded earnings data points, with 12 positive and 7 negative one-day returns, indicating a 63% occurrence of positive returns [6] Market Reaction - The results of Yum! Brands will significantly impact market reactions against consensus expectations, and historical trends may favor event-driven traders [3][4] - The correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings can provide a relatively lower-risk strategy for traders [7]

Company Overview - Eaton Corporation plc is a multinational power management company that provides electrical, hydraulic, and mechanical power solutions for various industrial and commercial applications [2] - The company focuses on smart power management, helping customers utilize power more efficiently and sustainably [3] Financial Performance - Eaton reported impressive Q1 2025 results, with revenue increasing by 7.3% to $6.38 billion and a 9% organic growth rate, driven by strength in the Electrical and Aerospace segments [4] - Adjusted EPS climbed 13% to a record $2.72, with segment margins reaching 23.9% [4] - The company has elevated its full-year guidance, anticipating 7.5–9.5% organic growth and adjusted EPS of $11.80–12.20 [4] - Over the past twelve months, Eaton generated $25 billion in revenue, with operating profits of $4.8 billion and net income of $3.9 billion [4] Market Expectations - Analysts forecast adjusted earnings of $2.92 per share on revenue of $6.91 billion for the upcoming second-quarter earnings announcement on August 5, 2025 [3] - This forecast indicates a 7% increase in earnings year-over-year and a 9% rise in sales compared to the previous year's figures of $2.73 per share and $6.35 billion in revenue [3] Historical Performance Trends - Historically, Eaton's stock has exceeded performance expectations following earnings releases, rising 58% of the time with a median one-day increase of 3.6% and a maximum observed surge of 8% [3] - Over the past five years, there have been 19 earnings data points collected, with positive one-day returns occurring approximately 58% of the time [6] - The median of the 11 positive returns was 3.6%, while the median of the 8 negative returns was -1.6% [6] Trading Strategies - Event-driven traders can leverage historical patterns for competitive advantage, whether by positioning before earnings or reacting to movements post-release [5] - A strategy involving the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings can be effective, particularly if the 1D and 5D returns show strong correlation [7]

Core Insights - The gold market is experiencing weakness, with potential for upward movement despite current downward pressure [1] - Event-driven trading is intensifying, leading to a countdown of long and short positions [1] - The FOMC meeting may reveal hints for a potential interest rate cut in September, influencing market dynamics [1] Market Analysis - Daily RSI divergence is noted, indicating a possible turning point in the market [1] - The VIX index is approaching a critical level, suggesting an imminent increase in volatility [1] - A significant macroeconomic week is anticipated, which could trigger fluctuations in gold and silver trading [1]

Core Viewpoint - SoFi Technologies is expected to report earnings on July 29, 2025, with historical data indicating a positive stock performance following earnings reports, achieving a positive return in 69% of instances [2][7]. Earnings Expectations - Analysts predict earnings of $0.06 per share on revenue of $804 million for the upcoming report, compared to $0.02 per share on revenue of $597 million in the same quarter last year [3]. Company Financials - SoFi Technologies has a market capitalization of $23 billion and generated $2.8 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, reporting a net income of $482 million [4]. Historical Performance - Over the last five years, there have been 16 earnings data points for SoFi, with 11 positive and 5 negative one-day returns, resulting in a 69% rate of positive returns. This rate drops to 67% when considering the last three years [7]. Post-Earnings Strategy - Traders can consider pre-earnings positioning based on historical odds or analyze the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings to guide trading decisions [6][8]. Correlation with Peers - The performance of peer companies can influence SoFi's post-earnings stock reaction, with historical data showing that pricing may begin before earnings announcements [9].

Core Insights - Starbucks is set to announce its fiscal third-quarter earnings on July 29, 2025, with analysts predicting earnings of 64 cents per share and revenue of $9.3 billion, reflecting a 31% decrease in earnings year-over-year and a 2% increase in sales compared to the previous year [2] - The company reported a 50% decrease in profits for Q2, with margins falling to 6.9% due to rising labor costs in the U.S. Sales increased by 2% to $8.76 billion, but same-store sales dropped by 1% for the fifth consecutive quarter [3] - Starbucks management has refrained from providing guidance for fiscal year 2025, indicating a recalibration phase under new leadership [3] Financial Performance - Current market capitalization of Starbucks stands at $109 billion, with revenue for the past twelve months at $36 billion [3] - The company generated $4.4 billion in operating profits and reported a net income of $3.1 billion [3] Historical Earnings Trends - Historical data shows that Starbucks stock has underperformed post-earnings releases, with a 55% decrease rate and a median one-day drop of 4.4% [2] - Over the past five years, there have been 20 recorded earnings data points, with 45% resulting in positive one-day returns, which increases to 58% when considering the last three years [6] - The median of positive returns is 4.3%, while the median of negative returns is -4.4% [6]