Core Thesis - Ramaco Resources, Inc. is facing skepticism regarding its rare-earth ambitions, particularly in scandium oxide, which is projected to generate over US$500 million in EBITDA by 2028, despite the current coal business providing steady cash flow [2][4] Financial Projections - The company's model anticipates scandium oxide sales at US$3,750/kg with annual production of 179 tons, leading to projected revenues of US$611 million, which are deemed unrealistic given the global market conditions [3] - Current market prices for scandium are around US$600–700/kg, with total annual production under 40 tons, suggesting that Ramaco's revenue projections are significantly inflated [3] Operational Status - The rare-earth project is still in the pilot stage, lacking current output or revenue diversification beyond coal, and there are no binding customer contracts or significant government funding to support the ambitious projections [2][3] - The full-scale facility for the mine is years away, and any deviations in price or yield could drastically reduce projected returns [4] Valuation Insights - Ramaco's coal operations generated Q3 2025 revenue of US$121 million and adjusted EBITDA of US$8.4 million, with a standalone coal valuation estimated at US$12–15 per share, plus an additional US$8–10 for the rare-earth venture [4] - The fair value of the stock is suggested to be between US$20–25 per share, contrasting with current market prices that may overstate speculative upside [4] Market Performance - The stock price of Ramaco Resources has appreciated approximately 4% since previous bullish coverage, indicating some realization of the growth trajectory and rare-earth optionality, but valuation risks remain due to unrealistic assumptions about scandium [5]

Core Insights - Ramaco Resources, Inc. is set to feature its Chairman and CEO, Randall W. Atkins, in an interview on Fox Business, highlighting the company's strategic position in the U.S. critical mineral industry amid China's restrictions on rare earths [1][2] Company Overview - Ramaco Resources operates and develops high-quality, low-cost metallurgical coal in southern West Virginia and southwestern Virginia, and is also a developing producer of coal, rare earth, and critical minerals in Wyoming [3] - The company has four active metallurgical coal mining complexes in Central Appalachia and is in the initial stages of production for a rare earth and coal mine near Sheridan, Wyoming [3] - In 2023, Ramaco discovered a major deposit of primary magnetic rare earths and critical minerals at its Wyoming mine, which is significant for the U.S. mining landscape [3] Project Highlights - The Brook Mine project in Sheridan, Wyoming, is notable as the first new rare earth mine developed in the U.S. in over 70 years and the first new coal mine in Wyoming in more than 50 years [2] - The interview will provide updates on the Brook Mine project, emphasizing its importance in the context of U.S. mineral independence [2]

Group 1 - Rare earth stocks MP Materials (MP) and NioCorp Developments (NB) experienced an increase as analysts highlighted their investment potential [1] - Ramaco Resources (METC) saw a decline after receiving a sell rating from Goldman Sachs [1] - The recent rise in rare earth stocks followed China's decision to defer some export restrictions for at least a year, leading to renewed investor interest [1] Group 2 - The AI stock bubble is reportedly deflating, with some S&P 500 stocks already entering a bear market [2] - Analysts are warning that nine stocks are expected to experience significant drops [2]

Core Viewpoint - MP Materials, the largest rare-earth miner in the Western Hemisphere, reported a smaller-than-expected loss for the third quarter and anticipates profitability in the fourth quarter, leading to a significant increase in its stock price [2][3][5]. Financial Performance - The company reported a third-quarter loss that was smaller than analysts had expected, and it is projected to be profitable in the fourth quarter [3][5]. - Realized pricing for neodymium praseodymium oxide increased to $59 per kilogram from $48 a year ago, with expectations for future prices to exceed $100 per kilogram [4][5]. Operational Updates - MP Materials is set to begin the commissioning process for its new heavy rare-earth separation facility at the Mountain Pass mine in mid-2026 [3][5]. - The company has established a relationship with Apple, which included a $40 million prepayment [3]. Market Context - Rare-earth stocks have experienced a decline of approximately 37% from their October highs due to geopolitical tensions and threats from China regarding rare-earth exports [7]. - China currently dominates the rare-earth materials market, holding an estimated 85% of global processing capacity, prompting the U.S. government to push for increased domestic production [8]. Analyst Insights - Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas raised the price target for MP Materials stock by $2 to $79 following the quarterly report, maintaining a Buy rating [4]. - Gianarikas expressed that the market has misjudged the situation, asserting that the U.S. is on a path to independence in critical materials, despite recent volatility in rare-earth stock prices [10].

Core Insights - Ramaco Resources, an aspiring rare-earths miner, is raising capital through convertible debt, which has negatively impacted its stock price early Wednesday [1] Company Summary - Ramaco Resources is actively seeking to raise capital via convertible debt instruments [1] - The announcement of this capital-raising effort has exerted downward pressure on the company's stock [1] Industry Context - The rare-earths mining sector is experiencing fluctuations in stock performance due to capital-raising activities by companies like Ramaco Resources [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ramaco Resources, Inc. has announced the pricing of a public offering of $300 million in 0% convertible senior notes due 2031, with net proceeds expected to be approximately $290.9 million, plus an additional $45 million for over-allotments [1][8]. Group 1: Offering Details - The offering consists of $300 million aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes, with total net proceeds of approximately $290.9 million [1]. - The underwriters have the option to purchase up to an additional $45 million in notes to cover over-allotments [1]. - No new shares of Class A common stock will be issued in this offering, and Ramaco will not receive any proceeds from the concurrent delta offering [1]. Group 2: Concurrent Delta Offering - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC and Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC will offer shares of Class A common stock borrowed from third parties to facilitate hedging transactions for purchasers of the notes [2]. - The initial offering price for the Class A common stock is set at $24.25 per share, with subsequent sales occurring at prevailing market prices [2]. - The concurrent delta offering is scheduled to settle on November 7, 2025, and is contingent upon the completion of the notes offering [2]. Group 3: Company Overview - Ramaco Resources, Inc. operates and develops metallurgical coal in southern West Virginia and southwestern Virginia, and is also involved in producing coal, rare earth elements, and critical minerals in Wyoming [4]. - The company has four active metallurgical coal mining complexes in Central Appalachia and is developing a rare earth and coal mine near Sheridan, Wyoming [4].

Core Viewpoint - Ramaco Resources, Inc. has announced a public offering of $300 million in 0% convertible senior notes due 2031, with net proceeds expected to be approximately $290.9 million, aimed at funding various strategic initiatives including a rare earth elements project [1][2]. Offering Details - The notes will settle on November 7, 2025, and underwriters have an option to purchase an additional $45 million to cover over-allotments [1][2]. - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC and Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC are the book-running managers for the offering, with several firms acting as co-managers [3]. Financial Structure - The notes will be senior, unsecured obligations that do not bear regular interest, and the principal will not accrete [4]. - Noteholders can convert their notes under specific conditions, with an initial conversion rate of 30.5460 shares per $1,000 principal amount, equating to a conversion price of approximately $32.74 per share, representing a 35% premium over the public offering price of $24.25 [5]. Redemption and Repurchase Rights - The notes are redeemable at Ramaco's option starting November 6, 2028, if the stock price exceeds 130% of the conversion price for a specified period [6]. - In the event of a "fundamental change," noteholders may require Ramaco to repurchase their notes for cash at the principal amount plus any accrued interest [7]. Capped Call Transactions - Ramaco has entered into capped call transactions to cover the shares underlying the notes, with an initial cap price of approximately $54.56 per share, a 125% premium over the public offering price [8][10]. - These transactions are designed to reduce potential dilution of Ramaco's Class A common stock upon conversion of the notes [11]. Concurrent Offering - Ramaco is also conducting a concurrent delta offering of 2,245,126 shares of Class A common stock at a price of $24.25 per share, with no new shares being issued and no proceeds going to Ramaco [14]. - The completion of the notes offering is contingent upon the successful completion of the concurrent delta offering [14]. Company Overview - Ramaco Resources, Inc. operates in metallurgical coal and is developing projects in rare earth elements and critical minerals, with operational offices in West Virginia and Wyoming [18].

Core Points - Ramaco Resources, Inc. plans to offer $300 million in convertible senior notes due 2031, with an option for underwriters to purchase an additional $45 million for over-allotments [1][2] - Concurrently, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will facilitate a separate offering of Ramaco's Class A common stock to hedge transactions related to the notes offering [2][3] - The completion of both offerings is interdependent, meaning the notes offering is contingent on the successful completion of the concurrent stock offering [2][3] Company Overview - Ramaco Resources, Inc. operates and develops metallurgical coal in southern West Virginia and southwestern Virginia, and is also involved in producing coal, rare earth elements, and critical minerals in Wyoming [4] - The company has four active metallurgical coal mining complexes in Central Appalachia and is in the initial stages of production for a rare earth and coal mine near Sheridan, Wyoming [4]

Core Viewpoint - Ramaco Resources, Inc. plans to offer $300 million in convertible senior notes due 2031, with an option for underwriters to purchase an additional $45 million to cover over-allotments, subject to market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Offering Details - The notes will be senior, unsecured obligations of Ramaco, accruing interest payable semi-annually starting May 1, 2026, and maturing on November 1, 2031 [2]. - Holders can convert the notes under certain conditions, with Ramaco having the option to settle conversions in cash, shares of Class A common stock, or a combination of both [3]. - The notes can be redeemed by Ramaco starting November 6, 2028, if the stock price exceeds 130% of the conversion price for a specified period [4]. Group 2: Repurchase and Use of Proceeds - In the event of a "fundamental change," noteholders may require Ramaco to repurchase their notes for cash at the principal amount plus accrued interest [5]. - Ramaco intends to use part of the net proceeds for capped call transactions and the remainder for developing rare earth elements and critical minerals projects, strategic growth opportunities, and general corporate purposes [6]. Group 3: Capped Call Transactions - Ramaco plans to enter into capped call transactions to reduce potential dilution of its Class A common stock upon conversion of the notes [7]. - The capped call transactions will be subject to anti-dilution adjustments and are expected to offset potential cash payments required upon conversion [7]. Group 4: Concurrent Delta Offering - Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will conduct a concurrent delta offering of Ramaco's Class A common stock to facilitate hedging transactions for purchasers of the notes [11]. - The completion of the notes offering is contingent on the completion of the concurrent delta offering, and no new shares will be issued in this offering [11]. Group 5: Company Overview - Ramaco Resources, Inc. operates in metallurgical coal and is developing projects in rare earth elements and critical minerals, with offices in Kentucky, West Virginia, and Wyoming [14].

Group 1 - Ramaco Resources (METC) has signed a research and development agreement with the Department of Energy to enhance the discovery, mining processing, and creation of rare earths and critical minerals [1] - The agreement aligns with the current administration's focus on partnering with key companies to secure critical minerals [1] Group 2 - Ramaco Resources has achieved a 96 RS rating, indicating strong market leadership [4] - The company has cleared key benchmarks and has seen its RS rating rise to over 90, joining an elite group of stocks [4] - Recent performance shows Ramaco Resources has demonstrated renewed technical strength and improving market leadership with an RS rating of 87 [4]