Core Insights - Upstart's shares have significantly declined from over $80 to the $30 range in recent months, indicating a challenging market environment for the company [1] Company Overview - Upstart is a technology-based growth stock that has faced a rough period, particularly since last summer, with a notable drop in share price [1] Investment Perspective - The focus is on identifying under-evaluated investment opportunities in small or micro-cap companies, particularly in technology sectors such as renewable energy and new mobility [1]

SAN MATEO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Upstart (NASDAQ: UPST), the leading artificial intelligence (AI) lending marketplace, today announced Cash Line, a breakthrough revolving line of credit that gives consumers ongoing access to money as needed. "Cash Line is Upstart's next great leap toward always-on credit for every American,†said Dave Girouard, co-founder and CEO of Upstart. "We are rapidly building a one- stop shop for all flavors of credit where guaranteed best rates are available 24/7 in a. ...

SAN MATEO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Upstart (NASDAQ: UPST), the leading artificial intelligence (AI) lending marketplace, today announced Cash Line, a breakthrough revolving line of credit that gives consumers ongoing access to money as needed. "Cash Line is Upstart's next great leap toward always-on credit for every American,†said Dave Girouard, co-founder and CEO of Upstart. "We are rapidly building a one- stop shop for all flavors of credit where guaranteed best rates are available 24/7 in a. ...

Core Insights - Upstart (UPST) experienced a significant stock decline of 19.77% in one week, despite beating revenue estimates and returning to profitability after a $129 million loss in 2024 [1] - Analysts project a 68% upside for Upstart, with a target price of $51.67, based on a 35% growth target through 2028 [1] Financial Performance - Upstart reported Q4 revenue of $296.09 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of $294.45 million [1] - Full-year revenue increased by 64% to over $1 billion, with loan originations surging by 86% [1] - The company returned to profitability with a net income of $53.6 million for 2025, following a loss of $129 million in 2024 [1] Leadership and Guidance Changes - Co-founder Paul Gu will replace the current CEO on May 1, 2026, which has raised concerns among investors [1] - The company is shifting from quarterly guidance to annual targets, aiming for long-term execution rather than short-term forecasting [1] - Weaker-than-expected margin guidance for 2026 was provided, attributed to a shift towards secured products like auto and home loans [1] Analyst Sentiment - The consensus price target of $51.67 indicates a bullish outlook from analysts, with ratings including 3 Strong Buys, 5 Buys, 6 Holds, and 2 Sells from 16 analysts [1] - Goldman Sachs upgraded its rating from Sell to Neutral, acknowledging a more balanced risk-reward profile [1] Market Context - Upstart's stock has dropped 33.95% over the past month, while the broader market has remained relatively stable [1] - The stock is currently trading at 68 times trailing earnings, reflecting market skepticism about near-term profitability [1] Future Considerations - Investors will focus on the new CEO's ability to meet the 35% growth target and whether margin compression is temporary [2] - The leadership transition and shift to annual guidance introduce execution uncertainty that the market will closely monitor [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment positions held by analysts in specific companies, indicating a bullish sentiment towards UPST, SOFI, and AFRM [1] Group 1 - Analysts have disclosed beneficial long positions in UPST, SOFI, and AFRM, suggesting confidence in these stocks [1] - The article emphasizes that the opinions expressed are personal and not influenced by external compensation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Upstart Holdings Inc reported adjusted fourth-quarter earnings of 46 cents per share, slightly below the estimated 47 cents, while revenue exceeded expectations [1] Group 1: Earnings and Revenue - The adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter were 46 cents, missing the consensus estimate of 47 cents [1] - Revenue for the fourth quarter surpassed estimates, indicating a positive trend in sales despite the earnings miss [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Shares of Upstart Holdings Inc are down 15.6%, trading at $32.88, and have decreased by 48% over the past 12 months [1][2] - The stock is currently trading below its descending 100-day moving average and is close to its 18-month low of $31.40 [2] Group 3: Analyst Reactions - Analysts have issued three price-target cuts, with Truist reducing its target from $59 to $49, while the 12-month consensus price target remains at $60.33, representing a 79.4% premium to current levels [1] Group 4: Options Market Activity - The call/put volume ratio for Upstart is 2.87, indicating a higher-than-usual appetite for bearish bets compared to bullish ones [3] - The stock's put/call open interest ratio of 1.15 is in the 100th percentile of its annual range, suggesting a significant preference for call options among short-term traders [4] - Over 19,000 calls and 12,000 puts have been traded today, with the February 30 call being the most popular contract [4]

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Core Insights - Upstart Holdings, Inc. reported a revenue of $296.09 million for the quarter ended December 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 35.2% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $0.46, up from $0.26 in the same quarter last year, although it fell short of the consensus estimate of $0.47 by 1.6% [1] - The revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $288.47 million, resulting in a positive surprise of 2.64% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Transaction volume reached $3.2 million, surpassing the average estimate of $2.96 million from three analysts [4] - Revenue from fees, net, was reported at $265.22 million, exceeding the four-analyst average estimate of $262.3 million, marking a year-over-year increase of 33.1% [4] - Total interest income, interest expense, and fair value adjustments, net, amounted to $30.87 million, compared to the average estimate of $26.07 million from four analysts [4] - Revenue from servicing and other fees, net, was $42.94 million, slightly below the two-analyst average estimate of $45.08 million, with a year-over-year change of 28.1% [4] - Revenue from platform and referral fees, net, was reported at $222.28 million, exceeding the average estimate of $217.23 million from two analysts, representing a year-over-year increase of 34.1% [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Upstart's shares have returned -14.1%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite remained unchanged [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

分组1 - Upstart Holdings, Inc. reported quarterly earnings of $0.46 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.47 per share, but showing an increase from $0.26 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of -1.60% [1] - The company posted revenues of $296.09 million for the quarter ended December 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.64%, and up from $218.96 million year-over-year [2] - Upstart has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters, indicating a trend of positive performance in revenue estimates as well [2] 分组2 - The stock has underperformed the market, losing about 11.2% since the beginning of the year compared to the S&P 500's gain of 1.7% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $0.54 on revenues of $257.77 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.65 on revenues of $1.24 billion [7] - The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, to which Upstart belongs, is currently in the top 27% of Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of $1.04 billion, representing a 64% increase from the previous year, with Q4 revenue reaching approximately $296 million, up 35% year-over-year [23][25][29] - The net income for Q4 was approximately $19 million, a significant turnaround from a loss of $2.8 million in the same quarter last year [16][28] - Adjusted EBITDA for the full year was $230 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22%, compared to 2% the previous year [29][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Personal loan originations grew by 75% year-over-year, while auto and home loan originations increased fivefold year-over-year [9][16] - Total loan origination dollars in Q4 grew by 52% year-over-year, with personal loans growing 41% in its 12th year of operation [16][9] - The average loan size increased to approximately $7,000, reflecting a higher mix of non-personal loan products [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported that 70% of funding for auto and home loans originated in Q4 came from third-party partners, indicating a shift towards a more diversified funding model [10][24] - The volume of loan transactions across the platform reached approximately 456,000, up 86% from the prior year [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage AI to transform access to credit, projecting a compound annual growth rate of 35% over the next three years [11][32] - The focus for 2026 includes increasing market share in auto and home lending, with expectations of over $100 million in fee revenue from these secured products [30][31] - The company is evolving its financial guidance approach to emphasize annual outlooks and provide more frequent updates on origination volumes [29][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the company's position, stating that it has emerged from a multi-year rebuild and is now stronger than ever [10][11] - The company anticipates continued growth in its core personal loan business while also expanding into larger markets for secured products [30][31] - Management noted that the average return of the last 12 quarterly vintages of loans exceeds that of U.S. Treasuries by 608 basis points, indicating strong credit performance [18] Other Important Information - The company has undergone a leadership transition, with Paul Gu set to become the new CEO, while Dave Girouard will continue as Executive Chairman [5][6] - The company has launched new models and technology updates that have improved loan performance and reduced default rates [19][20] Q&A Session Summary Question: How did the company manage to reduce balance sheet loans while experiencing strong growth in autos and HELOCs? - Management indicated that the reduction in balance sheet loans was part of a strategy to incubate new products and align with third-party funding, achieving a significant portion of funding from external partners [35][36] Question: How much conservatism is built into the UMI guidance? - Management clarified that the UMI guidance is based on their best estimate of consumer risk and does not imply conservatism or aggression [38][39] Question: What factors are influencing the expected decline in EBITDA margins for 2026? - Management explained that the decline is due to a changing mix towards larger secured products with lower take rates and a longer-term view on customer lifetime value [42][44] Question: What is the current health of the consumer credit market? - Management reported that consumer health is stabilizing, with UMI values indicating a return to pre-COVID normalization [51][52] Question: How does the company view the long-term market share opportunity in auto and home lending? - Management expressed confidence in achieving significant market share in these categories, driven by AI-enabled lending capabilities [54][56]