公允价值修复，美元兑日元将反弹 摩根士丹利包括Matthew Hornbach在内的策略师在周日的一份报告中指出，当前美元兑日元的定价与基本面存在偏离。这一判断的核心逻辑在于 美国国债收益率的下行趋势，预计这将推动汇率向公允价值回归。 根据该行的具体预测，美元兑日元将在2026年第一季度跌至140左右。但这一升值趋势可能只是阶段性的。策略师们预计，随着美国经济复苏，套 利交易的需求将重新被激活，从而在明年下半年再次对日元构成下行压力。该行预计，到2026年年底，美元兑日元将反弹至147左右。 官方高度关注与干预风险 在日元汇率徘徊在157附近的背景下，市场投资者正密切评估官方进行市场干预的风险。日本财务大臣片山皋月及其他官员近期已表达了对日元疲 软的担忧。片山皋月特别提到，干预是可选方案之一，尽管其此番言论目前对市场的实际影响有限。 摩根士丹利策略师预测，随着美国经济放缓迹象日益明显，如果美联储在此背景下实施连续降息，日元兑美元汇率有望在未来几个月内升值近 10%。 该行指出，目前美元兑日元汇率已脱离公允价值。如果这一关系得以修复，随着美国国债收益率下降拉低公允价值，美元兑日元预计将在2026年 第一季度出现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate remains near a ten-month high, driven by policy divergence and economic fundamentals, with the US maintaining high interest rates while Japan continues its ultra-loose monetary policy [1][2] Group 1: Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates between 5.25% and 5.5%, with a 32.8% probability of a rate cut in December due to persistent inflation concerns [1] - The Bank of Japan maintains a near-zero interest rate of 0.5%, despite core CPI falling to 1.8%, indicating a commitment to continued monetary easing to support economic recovery [1] - The interest rate differential between US and Japanese 10-year government bonds is 3.2 percentage points, attracting significant arbitrage funds into USD assets [1] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The US economy shows resilience with an unemployment rate stable at 3.6%, supporting the USD index above 100 [1] - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q3, marking two consecutive quarters of negative growth, contributing to a technical recession [1] - Japan's exports fell by 2.1% year-on-year in October, with weak performance in automotive and electronic components, putting further pressure on the JPY [1] - Global risk aversion has decreased, weakening the traditional safe-haven appeal of the JPY, as indicated by the VIX index dropping to a yearly low [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY has been in an upward channel since April, with a recent peak of 157.42, currently fluctuating between 156 and 158 [2] - Technical indicators show a bullish pattern, with moving averages aligned positively and MACD indicators expanding, although RSI is nearing overbought territory [2] - Key resistance is at the 2025 high of 158.87, while short-term support is between 155.00 and 156.80, with market attention on potential intervention by the Bank of Japan near 158.50 [2] Group 4: Trade Impact - The depreciation of the JPY increases procurement costs for Chinese exporters to Japan, leading to a 5.1% year-on-year decline in exports from January to October 2025 [2] - Labor-intensive sectors like textiles and home appliances are particularly affected, with significant revenue losses when converting JPY-denominated export income [2] - Conversely, the lower JPY benefits Chinese importers, with a 6.8% year-on-year increase in imports from Japan in October 2025, aiding in technology upgrades and cost control [2]

每经AI快讯，11月24日，美元兑日元达到当日高点，上涨0.4%，至157.08。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

每经AI快讯，11月19日，美元兑日元日内涨幅达0.5%，现报156.30。 ...

每经AI快讯，11月17日，美元兑日元突破155，日内涨0.3%。 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 每日经济新闻 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，11月12日，美元兑日元短线走低近20个基点，现报154.63。 ...

Core Points - The US dollar against the Japanese yen has continued to rise, with a recent increase of 0.4% to 154.77 [1] Currency Market - The US dollar has shown strength in the currency market, reflecting a positive trend against the Japanese yen [1]

Core Insights - The USD/JPY exchange rate reached 154, marking an increase of 0.38% for the day [1] Exchange Rate Movement - The USD/JPY pair experienced upward movement, indicating a strengthening of the US dollar against the Japanese yen [1]

Group 1 - The US dollar against the Japanese yen fell by 0.69%, closing at 153.06 yen [1] - The trading range for the day was between 154.14 and 152.83 yen [1]

Group 1 - The US dollar against the Japanese yen increased by 0.13%, reaching 154.19 yen at the end of trading in New York on November 3 [1] - The trading range for the day was between 153.93 and 154.30 yen [1]