Core Concepts - Trend following is not blind speculation; it emphasizes acting in accordance with market trends and avoiding counter-trend operations [1] - Price reflects all fundamentals, sentiment, and policies, ultimately manifesting in price trends [2] - Cut losses quickly and let profits run; quickly stop losses on losing trades while holding profitable trades until the trend ends [3] - Trends have inertia; once established, they are more likely to continue than to reverse [4] - Do not predict; instead, react to market signals and follow trends [5] Trend Identification - Moving Average System: A bullish signal occurs when a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average (e.g., 5-day > 20-day) [6] - Channel Breakout: Enter long when price breaks above the N-day high and short when it breaks below the N-day low [6] - Momentum Indicators: An expanding MACD histogram indicates trend acceleration [6] - Trend Structure: Higher highs and higher lows indicate an uptrend, while lower highs and lower lows indicate a downtrend [6] - Volatility Confirmation: A breakout of the Average True Range (ATR) from recent averages signals trend initiation [6] Strategy Execution - Entry Rules: Enter trades on price breakouts with increased volume or on pullbacks to moving averages [7] - Position Sizing: Limit single trade risk to 1% of total capital [7] - Stop Loss Settings: Use volatility-based stops (±2 times ATR) or structural stops based on previous highs/lows [7] - Profit Taking Logic: Implement trailing stops based on a percentage retracement from the highest price [7] - Multi-Market Adaptation: Different strategies for various asset classes, such as focusing on moving averages for stock index futures and momentum indicators for cryptocurrencies [7] Risk Management - Diversification: Hold 5-10 non-correlated trend positions simultaneously [8] - Leverage Control: Limit futures leverage to 5 times and cryptocurrency leverage to 3 times [8] - Drawdown Triggers: Enforce a 50% reduction in positions if account drawdown reaches 15% [8] - Correlation Monitoring: Reduce positions if the correlation coefficient among holdings exceeds 0.7 [8] Cognitive Misconceptions - Trend following is not equivalent to long-term holding; exit immediately when a trend ends [9] - Holding periods typically range from days to months, not high-frequency trading [9] - Avoid over-optimization, which can lead to failure in real trading [9] - Emotional interference can lead to premature exits; adhere to trailing stops [9] Practical Cases - Oil Price Crash 2020: Trend signals indicated a short position after breaking the 200-day moving average [10] - Nvidia AI Surge 2024: Trend initiation was confirmed by a weekly MACD crossover [10] - Federal Reserve Rate Hikes: The dollar index rose 15% during the 2022 rate hike cycle, validating breakout strategies [10] - Bitcoin Halving Trends: Historical data shows significant price increases following halving events [10]

估值建模，是金融行业必备技能， 无论在一级（股权）、一级半（定增）、二级（IPO、并购重组）领 域，重要性都不用多言。 然而，目前市场上流传的估值建模体系在实战中，往往存在诸多问题： 1、 逻辑问题 ——表格数据超多，而缺少逻辑直观展示，做表格的研究员能看懂，而看表格的公司领 导往往一头雾水； 2、 估值方法搭配问题 ——DCF模型，和PE法、PB法、EV/EBITDA法、PS法、P/GMV、P/MAU、终 点估值法等各种方法，得出的结果可能大相径庭，这些方法该如何选择搭配、有机融合？ 3、 假设缺陷问题 ——DCF计算过程往往假设科目过多、甚至一些假设是拍脑袋得出，如何对各科 目，做出更加有理有据的假设？ 针对这些深入影响估值判断与决策沟通的关键难点， 梧桐课堂 特联合并购优塾，于 2025年7月19-20 日 在 上海 ，举办 《DCF现金流贴现-建模技能速成指南》 线下培训。 主讲嘉宾 ● 注册会计师、注册税务师 ● 4年审计经验、5年投研经验及估值建模经验 ● 曾为多家不同行业的公司进行财务建模，涉及家电行业（美XX、格XX、老XX）、互联网行业 （腾XX、阿XX、网XX等）、保险行业（中XX、中XX ...

HilleVax, Inc. (HLVX) appears an attractive pick, as it has been recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). This upgrade primarily reflects an upward trend in earnings estimates, which is one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.The sole determinant of the Zacks rating is a company's changing earnings picture. The Zacks Consensus Estimate -- the consensus of EPS estimates from the sell-side analysts covering the stock -- for the current and following years is tracked by the system.Indi ...

Investors might want to bet on Eventbrite (EB) , as it has been recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). This upgrade is essentially a reflection of an upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.A company's changing earnings picture is at the core of the Zacks rating. The system tracks the Zacks Consensus Estimate -- the consensus measure of EPS estimates from the sell-side analysts covering the stock -- for the current and following years.Since a changin ...

When deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock, investors often rely on analyst recommendations. Media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm-employed (or sell-side) analysts often influence a stock's price, but are they really important?Let's take a look at what these Wall Street heavyweights have to say about AudioEye (AEYE) before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage.AudioEye currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR ...

The upcoming report from Alcoa (AA) is expected to reveal quarterly earnings of $0.30 per share, indicating an increase of 87.5% compared to the year-ago period. Analysts forecast revenues of $2.91 billion, representing an increase of 0.3% year over year.The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 4.8% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This reflects how the analysts covering the stock have collectively reevaluated their initial estimates during this timeframe.Before a compan ...

基层方回周度预测 本周预测结论 IC I H IF I M 卜周预测方向 注: 代表预测基差下周走强, 代表预测基差下周走弱。 本周回顾 本周场内风险偏好较高,但受到贸易谈判掣肘。美国对多国发送关税信函,并推迟关税谈判截止日 到8月1日，7月剩余交易日全球市场仍将存在不确定性。但中美双方依旧围绕日内瓦协议和伦敦会议基 调推动谈判,对国内资产冲击相对较小。本周一量化新规落地,交易需求短暂抑制后逐渐释放,后半周 成交量快速放大，最高超过1.7万亿，本周全A日均成交1.5万亿左右,较上周略有放量。融资余额继续 连续上涨,本周累计净流入超过200亿,6月下旬以来已经连续四周上涨。在风险偏好及消息面支持下, 本周多数行业板块收涨，银行板块周五大幅回调转跌。 上证指数在3500点附近反复拉扯，连续两日站稳 3500点上方,沪深宽基指数均录得周线三连阴,但风格再次逆转,本周中小盘涨幅更大,中证1000涨超 2%,大盘本周落后,涨幅不足1%。基差方面,随着指数大涨各品种基差同步上行,各品种较上周走强幅 度较大, IF重新回到升水状态,IC和IM年化贴水分别收敛至8%和10%左右，历史分位数大幅提高,各品 种期限结构近端上移较 ...

随着美国股市攀升至新的纪录高位，一个潜在的不祥信号正在浮现：市场上的卖家正变得越来越稀少。 最新动态显示，标普500指数在过去九个交易日中创下了五次历史新高，市场情绪异常高涨。然而，据Thrasher Analytics汇编的数据，过去一个 月，下跌股票的交易量平均仅占美国交易所总成交量的42%，这是自2020年以来的最低水平。 这一成交量信号的影响不容忽视。该数据分析公司联合创始人Andrew Thrasher指出，历史上，当该指标触及如此低的水平时，往往预示着市场的 回调。数据显示，在2020年、2019年和2016年出现类似情况后的三次实例中，标普500指数均出现了至少5%的下跌。 与此同时，市场的另一个矛盾信号来自波动率指数。芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）周四跌至2月底以来的最低水平，而衡量美国国债预期 波动性的ICE BofA MOVE指数也跌至近三年半低点。有策略师认为，这并非市场自满，而是投资者已经消化了包括贸易争端和经济增长担忧在内 的"已知未知"风险。 尽管历史数据显示该信号出现后市场可能面临5%或更多的跌幅，但Thrasher认为，本次回调可能相对"温和"。他表示： "我预计不会出现 ...

01 宏观 Macroeconomy 特朗普《大美丽法案》的内容及影响 中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 >>点击图片查看全文<< 2025年7月4日，特朗普正式签署《大美丽法案》[1]，基本兑现了其竞选期间提出的核心减税承 诺。该法案分为五大部分，涵盖企业减税、个人与家庭减税、削减清洁能源补贴、压缩医疗补助 （Medicaid）以及削减补充营养援助计划（SNAP）。整体来看，《大美丽法案》将在未来推升 财政赤字，但部分赤字可通过关税收入予以对冲。我们测算显示，法案对2026年实际GDP的拉动 在0.5个百分点以内，对通胀的推升作用不超过0.15个百分点；未来十年，关税+减税的组合将增 加净赤字约1.3万亿美元，赤字率将维持在6%左右。鉴于当前失业率低、通胀温和、私人部门资 产负债表健康，美国政府债务尚无迫切风险。中期来看，财政的约束将更多取决于通胀过高与财 政效率下降，但目前这两种情形尚未出现。在通胀可控的前提下，美国财政的空间可能比过去40 年来主流经济学所想的要更大。 2025.07.07 | 肖捷文 苏思雨等 02 策略 Strategy "大美丽"法案后的美债、美股与流 ...

智通财经7月11日电，欧洲农民协会预测欧盟2025年大麦产量为5410万吨，比2024年增长9.2%。 ...