Core Viewpoint - The pressure on soft economic data in the U.S. has reached levels that historically prompted the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts, which could benefit the stock market if the timing and scale of policy easing are sufficient to prevent a recession [2][4][7]. Group 1: Economic Data Analysis - Soft data has shown significant downward pressure, with over half of the soft data inputs now classified as "under pressure," while hard data remains stable [4][6][11]. - Historically, soft data pressure has led to Federal Reserve responses, with nearly every instance since the mid-1980s resulting in rate cuts or pauses in rate hikes [7][10]. - The interaction between soft and hard data can create a negative feedback loop, where prolonged weakness in soft data leads to declines in hard data, often culminating in a recession [4][11]. Group 2: Potential Economic Weakness - Two potential weak points in the economy are highlighted: the employment market, where layoffs are increasing, and the real estate sector, which is experiencing a decline in new home sales and building permits [13]. - The stock market's current optimism hinges on the assumption of a "non-recession" scenario, and any shift towards recession could lead to significant declines from current levels [13][16]. - The market anticipates a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a 20% probability of a cut in July, although this is considered low given the stability of hard data [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [1][2]. Economic Outlook - The Fed's economic projections indicate a slowdown in growth, with GDP growth forecasted to be 1.4% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% in both years [1][6]. - Core PCE inflation is projected to be 3.1% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures despite a cooling labor market [1][6]. Policy Adjustments - The Fed has removed previous language indicating rising risks of unemployment and inflation, suggesting a more stable outlook but still high uncertainty [2][5]. - The dot plot indicates that 8 out of 19 committee members support two rate cuts this year, while 7 favor maintaining the current rate, reflecting internal debates on the necessity of rate cuts [5][8]. Market Reactions - Despite the Fed's hawkish signals, market expectations for a rate cut in September are high, with a 66% probability, driven by recent weak economic data [8][9]. - The Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged is viewed as a prudent choice given the complex economic landscape, with potential policy shifts expected by late summer or early fall [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, highlighted significant uncertainty in trade policies and emphasized the importance of evaluating broader data and information [1] Group 1 - Global sentiment-related data is deteriorating [1] - As of now, hard data remains relatively robust [1] - Many expect that data will worsen in the second half of the year [1]

投资者对美国市场上涨面临的风险以及如何消化疲软的经济增长数据表示担忧，但高盛表示，不必过度 担忧预期中的经济增长阻力。由David Kostin领导的策略师团队认为，市场对经济增长的定价存在上行 和下行风险，经济数据的显著恶化可能吓到投资者，但软数据有进一步改善的空间，这将支撑股市上 行。软数据已开始走弱，且通常在硬数据之前触底。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Bostic stated that hard data has not yet reflected a "more pessimistic" sentiment in the market [1] Group 1 - Bostic emphasized that current economic indicators do not show signs of a significant downturn despite concerns [1] - The comments suggest that the economic outlook remains stable for now, as data continues to support this view [1] - There is an implication that future data may need to be monitored closely for any shifts in sentiment [1]

美联储施密德：在制定利率决策时将高度依赖硬数据，减少对预测的关注。 ...

急剧波动的美国贸易政策正迫使一些投资者更多地依赖"软数据"来帮助他们做出决策，因为在快速变化 的环境中，具体的官方指标过时太快。 上月美国总统特朗普关税公告等政策的急剧转变意味着，包括失业率、新增就业、零售销售和通胀等指 标，即所谓的"硬指标"，在发布时已经有些过时。 这促使投资者越来越多地从情绪调查或传闻的"软数据"中寻找线索。这些数据可能更主观，但能更及时 反映情况。 Cresset Capital首席投资官Jack Ablin表示："缺乏实时可见信息意味着我们不得不依赖软数据告诉我们现 在的情况。"他说他正在准备一个几乎完全基于消费者信心、投资者前景和商业信心水平数据的客户演 示。 嘉信理财首席投资策略师Liz Ann Sonders预计，这次硬数据将证实情况正在恶化，但她指出会有很多杂 音需要过滤。她说："我们会看到很多古怪的数据，你需要用仔细梳理。" 一些市场参与者正在寻找传统调查之外的软数据。 杜克大学福库商学院金融学教授Campbell Harvey表示："在这样的不确定时期，每一个事件或数据点都 会对价格产生巨大影响并引发波动。因此，这就是为什么你需要超越常规去追求新的数据。" Harvey更 ...

SHMET 网讯：美联储最新利率决定将于北京时间周四凌晨2:00公布，鲍威尔的新闻发布会将于凌晨2:30开始。本次会议不会公布最新的经济预测摘要 （SEPs），更新的预测需等到6月会议。 在强于预期的4月就业报告发布后，市场普遍预计美联储将维持利率在4.25%-4.50%不变。货币市场目前认为，本次会议仅有2%的概率降息25个基点， 而全年累计降息预期为72个基点。 本次会议以及鲍威尔的新闻发布会上，焦点将继续集中美联储官员在对关税影响的评论，以及指引上。然而，美联储很可能重申其观望立场，以观察特 朗普的关税如何反映到"硬数据"中，并帮助美联储决定下一步行动。 继上周五美国就业报告强劲之后，高盛集团和巴克莱银行都将下一次降息预测从6月推迟到7月。值得注意的是，花旗虽维持年内125个基点的降息预 测，但首次降息时点从5月延至6月。 政策声明与鲍威尔表态 随后的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔提供的主要信息很可能重复"FOMC已做好充分准备，在获得更清晰的信息之前不改变政策"的说法。 高盛经济学家在其FOMC前瞻报告中提出了2个关键点 "软数据"VS"硬数据"： 当前数据走势呈现出典型的事件驱动型放缓特征：调查类"软数据"迅 ...

Economic Outlook - The U.S. economic outlook is under scrutiny as consumer and business surveys signal anxiety, reflecting market concerns about economic development [1][3] - Despite the anxiety in market sentiment, fundamental economic data shows resilience, with GDP growth and industrial production indices maintaining certain levels without significant declines [3][4] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence indices have declined, leading to a pessimistic outlook on future income growth and employment prospects [3] - Consumers are becoming more cautious in their spending decisions due to price fluctuations and potential risks in the job market, impacting overall domestic demand [3] Business Sentiment - Business surveys indicate that many managers are worried about market demand uncertainty, leading to conservative investment decisions and some companies reducing expenditures [3] - The overall economic landscape is complicated by the contrast between negative market sentiment and stable fundamental data [3][4] Federal Reserve Policy - Goldman Sachs economists suggest that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to ease monetary policy based solely on "soft data" from consumer and business surveys [4] - Historical experiences show that soft data has often incorrectly predicted recessions, leading the Fed to be more cautious in its policy decisions [4] Labor Market Indicators - The Fed is looking for clear changes in labor market indicators, such as employment participation rates and wage growth, before considering any interest rate cuts [4] - The labor market is viewed as a critical indicator of economic health, influencing the Fed's assessment of recession risks and the need for monetary easing [4] Interest Rate Decision - Goldman Sachs aligns with the consensus that the Fed is likely to maintain interest rates in the upcoming decision, as fundamental data has not deteriorated to a level that necessitates immediate action [5] - The Fed's policy adjustments will consider multiple factors, including inflation levels and the global economic environment, to avoid unintended consequences [5]

Summary of Key Points Industry: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook Core Insights and Arguments - Goldman Sachs economists believe that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to ease monetary policy solely based on "soft data" indicating economic anxiety among consumers and businesses, as the fundamental data does not show a severe economic slowdown [1] - The team at Goldman Sachs noted that soft data has previously misled predictions of impending recessions, particularly during the Fed's efforts to combat inflation in 2022 [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to seek evidence from the labor market and other hard data before considering any interest rate cuts [1] Additional Important Content - Goldman Sachs, along with other Wall Street institutions, anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at their current levels during the upcoming rate decision [2]