"你最近有没有这种感觉？每次看到汇率跳来跳去，心里总有点犯嘀咕：到底是涨是跌？是该换一点，还是继续观望？"朋友前两天跟我吐槽，我听完只笑了 笑，因为这种纠结，应该不少人都有。 其实汇率每天都在波动，但我们普通人真正关心的，无非就是两个问题：现在的走势稳不稳？未来几天有没有大变动的可能？既然大家都想看得更明白，那 今天就用轻松点的方式，把最近的整体情况梳理清楚。 人民币最近挺稳，主要货币就在窄幅来回晃 最近外汇市场的整体节奏，可以用四个字概括：不慌不忙。主要货币对人民币基本上处于小范围上下波动，没有大跳水，也没有大冲高。 像美元，当前大概在七点零八上下。对普通人来说，它没出现什么明显的大涨大跌。如果你最近换过美元，大概率能感觉到：比前阵子略微贵一点，但也没 贵到离谱的程度。 欧元呢？因为那边经济还没完全缓过劲来，所以对人民币的走势有点弱弱的，没有太大力量往上冲。 日元最近显得比之前硬气一些，跟市场避险情绪有点关系。一有风吹草动，大家就喜欢把资金挪到相对安全的地方，日元因此稍微稳住一点。 英镑就比较佛系，退欧后的影响还在消化，它属于那种你不去关注，它自己也不会给你什么惊喜的类型。 新兴市场那边的表现就不太一样了， ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周五（11月21日）纽约尾盘，美元兑日元跌0.69%，报156.39日元，本周累计上涨1.22%。 欧元兑日元累涨0.26%，报180.08日元；英镑兑日元累涨0.67%，报204.929日元。 ...

目前日本央行陷入两难境地：通胀持续高于政策目标，而受美国关税冲击，日本GDP增长数据正持续走 弱。截至9月的三个月内，日本GDP出现六个季度以来首次收缩，环比下降0.4%，年化降幅达1.8%。 美元/日元技术分析 日线相对强弱指数（RSI）显示出轻微超买信号，这抑制了交易员对美元/日元货币对建立新的看涨头寸 的意愿。因此，在为下一波上涨布局之前，谨慎的做法是等待短期内出现一定幅度的盘整或小幅回调。 与此同时，当前任何修正性下跌都可能在157.00关口略下方获得初步支撑，随后是156.65-156.60区域； 若跌破该区域，美元对日元汇率可能进一步跌向156.00关口。这一水平将成为关键支撑位，一旦失守， 将为更大幅度的下跌打开空间。 反之，若上行，158.00将构成首个阻力位，突破该水平后，美元兑日元有望进一步升向158.50附近的下 一个重要阻力区。届时多头动能可能继续扩大，推动汇价挑战1月初的高点，即接近159.00区域。 周五（11月21日）亚洲时段，美元/日元小幅回落，最新美元兑日元汇率徘徊在157.20附近，日本10月核 心通胀率以自7月以来最快速度攀升，这为日本央行加息提供了依据。由于市场担忧日本 ...

注散信念众号 | 贵金属期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可 【 2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年11月21日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 国内期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品种 | 11月20日 | 11月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | AU2512合约 | 932.56 | 937.00 | -4.44 | -0.47% | 7L/5 | | AG2512合约 | 12050 | 12148 | -98 | -0.81% | 元/干克 | | 外盘期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品种 | 11月20日 | 11月19日 | 涨跌 | 张联帽 | 单位 | | COMEX黄金主力合约 | 4076.70 | 4078.30 | -1.60 | -0.04% | | | COMEX白银主力合约 | 50.36 | 51.07 | -0.71 | -1.39% | 美元/盎司 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | ...

Core Insights - The recent surge in the exchange rate, approaching 88.80, is primarily influenced by the overall strength of the US dollar and market adjustments to Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations [1][2]. Policy Background and Market Expectations - In October, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, with most policymakers favoring rate stability to avoid hindering inflation's return to the 2% target [2]. - Disagreements emerged among officials regarding further rate cuts during the December meeting, with some arguing that continued easing could elevate inflation expectations and undermine public confidence in achieving inflation targets [2]. - Market tools indicate that the probability of a 25 basis point cut to 3.50%-3.75% in December dropped from 50.1% to 32.8%, reflecting a significant re-evaluation of monetary policy expectations [2]. Dollar Index and Exchange Rate Dynamics - The dollar index recently reached a five-month high of approximately 100.40, indicating the dollar's strength against a basket of currencies, which has supported the rise of the dollar against the Indian rupee [3]. - The dollar's strength is attributed to market expectations of sustained high interest rates by the Federal Reserve and uncertainties in the global economic environment [3]. Technical Analysis Perspective - Technically, the dollar-rupee exchange rate found support near the 20-day exponential moving average, ending a four-day decline, with the average positioned around 88.70 [5]. - Momentum indicators show the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded to around 60.00, suggesting potential bullish momentum if it remains above this level [5]. - Key support is identified at the August 21 low of 87.07, while the historical high of 89.12 is noted as a critical resistance level to watch [5].

总台报道员当地时间11月19日获悉，日元兑美元汇率跌破1美元兑换156日元。 近期，日本首相高市早苗发表有关台湾问题和历史认知上的错误言论，引发多方质疑和担忧，给日本经 济也带来诸多负面影响。 日本东京股市两大股指19日继续承压下跌。日经225种股票平均价格指数收盘下跌0.34%，东京证券交 易所股票价格指数下跌0.17%。 当地时间19日，日本新发10年期国债收益率升至1.76%，为2008年6月以来新高。此外，在日本财务省 19日实施的20年期国债招标中，最高中标收益率达到2.833%，高于上一次的2.684%。这是自1999年7月 以来，时隔约26年的高水平。由于市场担忧日本首相高市早苗提出的扩张性财政政策会导致财政状况进 一步恶化，日本国债遭投资者抛售，长期利率持续上升。 来源：央视新闻客户端 作者: 柏春洋 ...

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently at 154.7300, with a slight increase of 0.12%, reflecting limited reaction to Japan's economic contraction in Q3, which was less severe than expected [1] - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year, indicating insufficient economic momentum and leading to lowered expectations for the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes [1] - The Japanese government is promoting a new round of fiscal stimulus to alleviate rising living costs, suggesting continued expansionary fiscal policy and a likely maintenance of loose monetary policy, which may hinder the yen's ability to gain interest rate advantages [1] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY maintains a bullish structure in the short term, with clear resistance levels identified [2] - A strong rebound occurred from the 153.60 level, breaking through the 154.45-154.50 resistance zone, indicating potential for further upward movement if the 155.00 psychological level is breached [2] - The support level at 154.00 remains intact; however, a drop below 153.60 could shift the short-term bias to bearish, targeting the 152.10 range [2]

每经AI快讯，周五（11月14日）纽约尾盘，美元兑日元跌0.02%，报154.54日元，本周累计上涨0.72%。 欧元兑日元跌0.13%，报179.56日元，本周累涨1.19%；英镑兑日元跌0.22%，报203.439日元，本周累涨 0.76%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Market Dynamics - The stock market momentum has weakened, with indices like Nasdaq dropping over 2% and European markets declining approximately 1% [1] - President Trump signed a bill approved by Congress, effectively ending the government shutdown, but the market seems to have already priced in this outcome [1] - The primary concern now is whether upcoming official data will support or oppose the Federal Reserve's further easing policies, particularly the expected rate cut in December [1] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that a third risk management rate cut is not guaranteed, yet the market maintains a high certainty (about 70%) for this outcome [1] Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in December has fallen below 50% for the first time, as indicated by ICMarkets [3] - Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari expressed a wait-and-see attitude towards a December rate cut, opposing the October cut due to strong economic fundamentals and high inflation [3] - Cleveland Fed's Harmack reiterated support for pausing rate cuts next month, emphasizing that inflation concerns outweigh labor market worries [3] - The 30-year Treasury auction saw a tail of $25 billion, with long-end performance being weak, while U.S. Treasury yields generally rose by 2.2 to 5 basis points [3] Currency Movements - The euro to dollar exchange rate rebounded due to interest rate influences but faced resistance near 1.1630 due to U.S. risk aversion [4] - The dollar/yen momentum encountered resistance at the 155 mark, indicating a loss of support for the dollar index [4] - The Chinese yuan appreciated to 7.096 against the dollar, marking its strongest level since October 2024, although weaker-than-expected monthly data limited further appreciation [4] - The euro to pound exchange rate rose to approximately 0.885, the highest since April 2023, amid speculation regarding the UK budget and tax rate adjustments [4] Employment and Economic Reports - The monthly employment report from KPMG and REC indicated the first growth in temporary worker paychecks in 16 months, while permanent job recruitment trends have slowed for the fourth consecutive month [5] - Despite economic weakness and uncertainty surrounding the government budget, employers remain cautious about new hiring [5] - A joint statement from the U.S. government and four Latin American countries announced a reduction in tariffs on various domestically produced goods, including bananas, coffee, and beef, aimed at alleviating the cost of living crisis [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the domestic economy is steadily improving, while global economic growth remains insufficient, with various risks primarily stemming from external disturbances [2] Economic Overview - The domestic economy is on a steady path, with sufficient support to achieve annual targets, and the effectiveness of demand policies is becoming evident [2] - The global economic outlook is cautious, with insufficient growth momentum, diverse inflation trends, and concerns over fiscal sustainability [2] Inflation - Price levels have shown improvement, maintaining a positive tone compared to previous reports, with a focus on promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration for monetary policy [2] Exchange Rate - The report emphasizes the need to deepen market-oriented reforms of the exchange rate, highlighting its role as an automatic stabilizer for macroeconomic balance and international payments [3] Monetary Policy - The report maintains a stance of moderately loose monetary policy while introducing a more comprehensive macro-prudential management system, emphasizing the importance of smooth monetary policy transmission [4] Credit - The report stresses the need to guide banks in consolidating credit support and maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions, aligning credit growth with economic and price targets [5] Liquidity - The report continues to advocate for ample liquidity in the market, aiming to stabilize the funding environment and improve the overall monetary financial environment [6] Risk Management - The report expands the scope of macro-prudential support, enhancing the monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks, and emphasizes the need for a broader coverage of macro-prudential policies [7]