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巴西Poder360网站8月18日消息，巴西央行在最新发布的《焦点公报》（Focus）中，将2025年巴通 胀率预期从5.05%下调至4.95%，将2026年通胀率预期从4.41%下调至4.4%。报告显示，市场对2025年巴 GDP增长预测维持在2.21%，对2026年GDP增长预测维持在1.87%。根据报告，市场预测2025年巴基准 利率维持在15%，2026年维持在12.5%。与上周公布的数据相比，2025年底汇率预测保持不变，为1美元 兑5.6雷亚尔，2026年底汇率预测则维持在1美元兑5.7雷亚尔。 （原标题：巴西央行预测2025年巴通胀率为4.95%） ...

大家周六晚上好，有点尴尬，之前说好的每周六晚上，贴一篇星球里的精选内容出来的，结果，过去两周的周末，都身体抱恙，没更新，咱们今天继续。 第一，上周的星球周度精选。 首先比较值得一说的是，截至今天，「表舅和表舅的朋友们」，这个从去年6月开始，仅仅运作了一年零两个月的知识星球， 正式迎来了第7000位小伙 伴。 这应该是金融类星球里，最快速度达到这一里程碑的（之一），希望这一 认真运营、只讲干货、理性客观 的内容社区，能被更多看到。 ...... 好了， 以下是本周的精选，大家扫码下图的二维码 ，即可进入。 今天这篇，我把上周做的， 针对央妈的二季度货币政策报告的解读 ，拿出来聊一下——其实，还是就着《 为什么我不看空债券？ 》里的观点继续说，因 为，我们反复强调， 前所未有的低利率环境 ，是本轮股市走强的最强主线，没有之一，因此，货币政策的变化，其实和股债，都有直接的强关系。 另外， 结构化的货币工具 ， 对新质生产力、对科技板块的资金浇灌 ，也是本轮科技牛市的主要动力之一，因此，无论从任何角度看，理解央妈的货政报 告，对投资权益、投资固收，都有很强的指导意义。 因此，还是拿出来，和大家交流一番。 | 沪指突破 ...

管涛、刘立品（管涛系中银证券全球首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事） 摘 要 7月份，美国关税政策继续增加全球贸易不确定性，但市场反应弱化，美元指数止跌回升，在岸人民币时点汇率有所回调，均值汇率则继续走强，但市场 主体并未积累补涨预期。 7月份，跨境资金转为小幅净流出，外资对股票资产兴趣增强，但远期美元贴水幅度大幅收窄导致外资减持人民币债券规模创下历史新高，跨境人民币和 证券投资支出规模均刷新历史纪录。 7月份，银行结售汇顺差继续扩大，市场主体囤积和抢购外汇动机减弱，金融机构境内外汇存款余额从月度"七连升"转为下降。 风险提示：地缘政治风险超预期，主要央行货币政策调整超预期，国内经济复苏不如预期。 正文 8月15日，国家外汇管理局发布了2025年7月外汇收支数据。现结合最新数据对7月份境内外汇市场运行情况具体分析如下： 美元指数止跌回升，人民币汇率明弱实强，市场主体并未积累补涨预期 7月份，美国关税政策继续增加全球贸易不确定性。在4月2日宣布"对等关税"、4月9日暂缓对部分贸易伙伴征收"对等关税"90天之后，特朗普于7月7日宣 布延长"对等关税"暂缓期，将实施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日；7月31日签署行 ...

中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛（曾任国家外汇管理局国际收支司司长）表示，人民币兑美元存在进一步升值突破7元的可能性。推动人民币走升的情形包括美国经济疲软、美联储降息以及市场对美元信心普遍下降。另外，还有一种可能推升人民币的情形，就是中美能够像第二阶段经贸协议，这可能提升市场信心。管涛称，如果假设的情形发生，人民币可能会升破7。管涛还反驳有关中国刻意让汇率贬值来支持出口的说法，并称人民币的多边汇率的走势“是结果，不是目标。” ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - No explicit core viewpoints are presented in the provided content. The report mainly offers data on global asset market performance, including bond yields, exchange - rates, stock indices, and futures trading data. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: On August 15, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.319%, 4.696%, 3.467% respectively. The latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes varied among different countries. For example, the US had a latest change of 0.033, a weekly change of 0.035, a monthly change of - 0.099, and an annual change of 0.375 [3]. - **2 - year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: The 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. on August 15, 2025, were 3.927%, 1.970%, 0.822% respectively. Similar to the 10 - year yields, the changes in different time - frames differed across countries [3]. - **Exchange Rates of the US Dollar Against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: On August 15, 2025, the exchange rates against South Africa's ZAR, Brazil, Russia, etc. were presented, along with their latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes. For instance, against South Africa's ZAR, the latest change was - 0.29%, the weekly change was - 0.61%, the monthly change was - 4.12%, and the annual change was not provided in the context [3]. - **Stock Indices of Major Economies**: Stock indices such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, France CAC, etc. had their closing prices on August 15, 2025, and their latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes. For example, the Dow Jones closed at 6449.800, with a latest change of - 0.29%, a weekly change of 0.94%, a monthly change of 2.43%, and an annual change of 24.05% [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The indices of emerging economies' investment - grade and high - yield credit bonds, US investment - grade and high - yield credit bonds, and euro - zone investment - grade and high - yield credit bonds had their latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes. For example, the emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of - 0.10%, a weekly change of 0.19%, a monthly change of 1.48%, and an annual change of 5.08% [3][4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were provided. For example, the A - share closed at 3696.77 with a 0.83% increase [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) and their环比 changes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and Germany DAX were presented. For example, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 13.46 with a 0.04环比 change [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premiums (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) and their环比 changes of S&P 500 and Germany DAX were given. For example, the risk premium of S&P 500 was - 0.66 with a - 0.02环比 change [5]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, small and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were provided. For example, the latest fund flow in A - shares was 931.56, and the 5 - day average was - 217.38 [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small and medium - sized board, and ChiNext were presented. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 22446.12 with a - 345.97环比 change [5]. - **Main Contract Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread of IF, IH, and IC were provided. For example, the basis of IF was 7.05 with a 0.17% spread [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were presented. For example, T00 closed at 108.295 with a - 0.10% change [6]. - The money market interest rates (R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M) and their daily changes (BP) were provided. For example, R001 was 1.4391% with a - 3.00 BP daily change [6].

美元兑瑞郎自0.7871低点企稳反弹，当前交投于0.8050附近，位于布林带中轨0.7976上方。布林带上轨 位于0.8065，下轨在0.7887，整体带宽收窄，显示波动率有所减弱，市场处于蓄势阶段。 汇价在上行过 程中，已逼近关键阻力位0.8100，该位置与布林上轨及前期密集成交区形成共振，短期存在一定的技术 性压力。 周四（8月14日）美元兑瑞郎汇率今日开盘报0.8042，昨日收盘于0.8043，截至发稿前美元/瑞郎报 0.8055，涨幅0.15%，最高价0.8058，最低价0.8042。瑞士7月CPI年率小幅上升，但仍接近负值，表明瑞 士央行可能仍在今年晚些时候将利率降至零以下。 瑞士统计局表示，7月份CPI较去年同期上涨0.2%，而6月份的CPI年率为0.1%。最新数据发布之前，美 国对大多数瑞士商品征收了令人震惊的39%关税，这一税率高于特朗普政府早些时候发出的信号。瑞士 央行6月将基准利率降至零，试图抑制对瑞士法郎的需求。瑞士法郎一直是投资者青睐的避险货币。瑞 郎的升值减少了对瑞士出口产品的需求，其中包括药品和奢侈手表。 ...

他举例分析，2024年底巴西与美国的利差降至5%，为近20年来第二低，仅高于2021年至2022年疫情期 间的水平。数据显示，这两个时期雷亚尔在实际和名义上都经历了显著贬值，尽管当时巴西外部经济环 境相对稳定。 他引用Santander银行2023年12月发布的一份特别报告分析称，巴西汇率与利差的关系并非传统利率平价 理论所描述的线性模式，而是呈"微笑曲线"特征： ——当利差处于"正常"水平（约6%-10%）时，汇率反应不大； 新华财经圣保罗8月11日电（记者杨家和）巴西Banco Master银行首席经济学家、瓦加斯基金会教授保 罗·加拉（Paulo Gala）近日撰文指出，当前雷亚尔再次出现对美元贬值趋势，这一现象在雷亚尔高利率 背景下显得颇为反常。他认为，影响雷亚尔汇率的关键在于巴西与美国的利差水平，而非巴西基准利 率；而利差的扩大或将导致雷亚尔贬值。 ——当利差降至6%以下时，雷亚尔会出现非线性的大幅贬值； ——当利差过高（10%以上）时，也可能因国家风险飙升而引发贬值。 2024年的情况与此相符。当时由于美国降息速度慢于巴西，利差缩小至约5%，在巴西基准利率为 10.5%、美联储利率为5.5%的背景 ...

1. Global Asset Market Performance 1.1 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On August 8, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.284%, 4.600%, 3.348% respectively. The latest changes were 0.033, 0.054, 0.053; weekly changes were 0.066, 0.074, 0.002; monthly changes were - 0.127, - 0.021, - 0.064; and annual changes were 0.252, 0.631, 0.337 [3]. 1.2 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - As of August 8, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany were 3.690, 3.896, 1.952 respectively. The latest changes were - 0.030, 0.023, 0.036; weekly changes were - 0.250, 0.107, 0.027; monthly changes were - 0.190, 0.045, 0.056; and annual changes were - 0.670, 0.090, - 0.573 [3]. 1.3 Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - On August 8, 2025, the dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate was 5.435, with a latest change of 0.18%, a weekly change of - 1.94%, a monthly change of - 2.25%, and an annual change of - 3.82%. Similar data were provided for other currencies like the Russian ruble, South African rand, etc. [3]. 1.4 Stock Indices of Major Economies - On August 8, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq were 6389.450, 44175.610, 21450.020 respectively. The latest changes were 0.78%, 0.47%, 0.98%; weekly changes were 2.43%, 1.35%, 3.87%; monthly changes were 2.07%, - 0.44%, 4.20%; and annual changes were 15.70%, 8.16%, 21.88% [3]. 1.5 Credit Bond Indices - The latest changes of the US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - area investment - grade credit bond index, etc. were - 0.24%, - 0.15%, etc.; weekly changes were - 0.12%, 0.08%, etc.; monthly changes were 1.45%, 0.45%, etc.; and annual changes were 5.06%, 4.83%, etc. [3][4] 2. Stock Index Futures Trading Data 2.1 Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3635.13, 4104.97, 2789.17 respectively. The corresponding percentage changes were - 0.12%, - 0.24%, - 0.33% [5]. 2.2 Valuation - The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 13.31, 11.47, 30.52 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.02, - 0.02, - 0.06 [5]. 2.3 Risk Premium - The risk premium (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of the S&P 500 and German DAX were - 0.59 and 2.68 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.06 and - 0.03 [5]. 2.4 Fund Flows - The latest values of fund flows for A - shares, the main board, and SMEs were - 731.15, - 338.22, etc., and the 5 - day average values were - 266.18, - 179.38, etc. [5]. 2.5 Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, and SSE 50 were 17102.27, 3085.08, 828.05 respectively, with环比 changes of - 1152.63, - 496.00, - 114.17 [5]. 2.6 Main Contract Basis and Spread - The basis of IF, IH, and IC were - 21.77, - 3.77, - 96.50 respectively, with spreads of - 0.53%, - 0.14%, - 1.53% [5] 3. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.640, 105.840, 108.535, 105.895 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.06%, 0.05%, 0.06%, 0.06% [6]. - The funding rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3413%, 1.4538%, 1.5544% respectively, with daily changes of - 14.00, - 3.00, - 1.00 [6]

汇率波动与你我的钱包：一场无形的"价格游戏" 8月8日主要货币汇率一览：全球货币的动态 当日公布的人民币汇率中间价显示：美元兑人民币为1:7.1345；欧元为1:8.3291；英镑则相对较高，为1:9.5460；港币为1:0.90895；澳元为1:4.6455；新西兰 元为1:4.2394；新加坡元为1:5.5610；瑞士法郎为1:8.8630；而人民币兑韩元则为1:193.53。这些数字背后，反映着全球经济的动态变化。 汇率变化的实际影响：以美元为例 假设你需要兑换1000美元。按照8月8日的汇率，你需要支付7134.5元人民币。但如果美元汇率上涨至7.20，则需要支付7200元，差价高达65.5元。虽然对个 人而言，这笔差价看似微不足道，但对于企业而言，兑换100万美元的差价将达到数万元。 你是否注意到，今天美元又涨至7块多，欧元更是超过8块？这并非仅仅是金融新闻中的数字游戏，它与我们的日常生活息息相关。无论是出国旅游、海外购 物，还是外贸生意，甚至日常消费，汇率的涨跌都潜移默化地影响着我们的钱包。让我们以8月8日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为例，深入探讨汇率背 后的玄机。 汇率影响着我们的生活：细致入 ...