证券研究报告 | 2026年02月28日 多资产周报 "暴走"的汇率 多资产图景： 风险提示：海外市场动荡，国内政策执行的不确定性。 核心观点 经济研究·宏观周报 | 证券分析师：邵兴宇 证券分析师：田地 | | --- | | 010-88005483 0755-81982035 | | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cntiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 整体收益方面，本周（2 月 21 日至 2 月 28 日），权益方面，沪深 300 上涨 1.08%，恒生指数上涨 0.83%，标普 500 下跌 0.45%；债券方面，中 债 10 年下跌 0.22BP，美债 10 年下跌 11BP；汇率方面，美元指数下跌 0.11%，离岸人民币升值 0.53%；大宗商品方面，SHFE 螺纹钢上涨 0.35%， 伦敦金现上涨 3.35%，伦敦银现上涨 11.77%，LME 铜上涨 5.41%，LME 铝 上涨 3.43%，WTI 原油上涨 0.82%。 资产比价方面，本周金银比数值为 58.05，较上周下降 4.73；铜油比数 值为 200.53，较上周上升 8.75；铜螺比数值为 33.87 ...

转自：新华财经 【资讯导读】 •美国对六类商品加征10%临时关税 •美联储库克警告：AI或推高结构性失业 降息难解困局 •波士顿联储主席柯林斯表示，预计通胀将在今年晚些时候回落至目标水平，但货币政策应保持审慎与 耐心，大概率在一段时间内维持当前利率不变。 •日本经济产业大臣赤泽亮正表示，若美国实施10%新关税，部分日企可能面临超出现有15%协议的额 外负担。他称暂无访美谈判计划，但已通过电话要求美方确保日本待遇不低于去年协议水平，并强调美 日关系已从"竞争者"转为"特殊合作伙伴"。 •美联储博斯蒂克强调通胀优先 呼吁维护美联储独立性 •日本首相强硬表态反对进一步加息 央行称未受具体指令 •英国央行贝利释放降息信号 通胀回归轨道 【市场资讯】 •美国海关与边境保护局宣布，自2026年2月24日00:01（美东时间）起，对大型电池、铸铁及铁制配 件、塑料管道、工业化学品、电网设备和电信设备等六大类产品加征10%关税，有效期至7月24日。此 举独立于特朗普政府此前宣布的全球15%关税，美媒称白宫正推动将整体税率提升至15%。 •美联储理事丽莎·库克指出，人工智能正加速美国劳动力市场的代际更替，可能引发结构性失业上升 ...

巴西中央银行2月23日发布《焦点报告》，将2026年国内生产总值（GDP）增长预期由此前的1.8%小幅 上调至1.82%。报告同时公布后续年份增长预期：2027年维持在1.8%，2028年和2029年预期均为2%。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 通胀预期方面，市场将2026年全国广义消费者价格指数（IPCA）预期从3.95%下调至3.91%，2027年通 胀预期维持3.8%，2028年和2029年均为3.5%。上述通胀预期水平均处于国家货币委员会设定的通胀目 标区间内，该区间以3%为目标值，上下浮动1.5个百分点。 利率层面，当前巴西基准利率仍维持在15%的高位。报告显示，市场预计该利率将在2026年底降至 12.13%，低于此前预测的12.25%；2027年和2028年预期分别为10.5%和10%，2029年有望进一步降至 9.5%。 汇率方面，市场预计美元对雷亚尔在2026年底报5.45雷亚尔，到2027年底升至5.50雷亚尔。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Brazil has slightly adjusted its GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 1.8% to 1.82%, while maintaining the growth forecast for 2027 at 1.8% and projecting 2% for both 2028 and 2029 [1] Economic Indicators - The inflation expectation for the nationwide broad consumer price index (IPCA) in 2026 has been revised down from 3.95% to 3.91%, with 2027's expectation remaining at 3.8%, and 3.5% for both 2028 and 2029 [1] - All inflation levels are within the target range set by the National Monetary Council, which has a target value of 3% with a fluctuation margin of 1.5 percentage points [1] Interest Rates - The market anticipates that Brazil's benchmark interest rate will decrease to 12.13% by the end of 2026, down from a previous forecast of 12.25%. The expected rates for 2027 and 2028 are 10.5% and 10%, respectively, with a potential drop to 9.5% by 2029 [1] Exchange Rates - The market expects the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Brazilian real to be 5.45 reais by the end of 2026, increasing to 5.50 reais by the end of 2027 [1]

2月20日，韩国KOSPI指数开盘涨幅0.27%，盘中上涨1.13%触及5741.44点，创下历史新高，截至发稿，涨幅回落至1.09%，报5739.02点。 日经225指数开盘跌0.89%，盘中一度跌超1.28%，跌超733点。截至发稿，跌幅为1.11%，报56828.33点。 截至发稿，日本东证股价指数下跌1.09%。 日本1月CPI同比上升1.5%，1月核心CPI同比上升2.0%。日本2月综合PMI初值53.8，前值53.1。日本2月制造业PMI初值52.8，前值51.5。日本2月服务业 PMI初值53.8，前值53.7。 每经记者｜马原 每经编辑｜程鹏 记者|马原 编辑|程鹏 易启江 校对|金冥羽 日元汇率走低，美元兑日元最新报155.1435。 日本5年期国债收益率跌至1.619%。10年期国债收益率跌至2.123%。30年期日本国债收益率跌至3.304%。 | （免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。） | | --- | ...

Villeroy释放出偏鸽派的政策信号，重申通胀低于目标的风险更值得重视，呼吁利率政策制定需保持"务 实"与"灵活"。当前欧洲央行利率自2025年年中以来维持在2%，他指出："即便我们的货币政策处于合 适位置，也不能，也不应一成不变。" 欧洲央行管委会成员、法国央行行长Francois Villeroy de Galhau指出，欧洲央行正密切关注外汇市场趋 势，已做好准备应对其可能对通胀造成的各类影响。 他强调，本轮欧元汇率变动主要源于美国政策不确定性引发的美元走弱，当前欧元仍大体处于长期均值 附近，但管委会已提升警觉程度。他表示："欧洲央行没有特定的汇率目标，但汇率显然对通胀和经济 增长前景很重要。""我们管委会将继续对相关趋势保持高度警惕——我强调的是趋势而非点位。金融市 场对美元资产的信心下降是有充分理由的。" 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 针对法国国内通胀，Villeroy表示当前通胀水平并未过低，待能源成本等临时影响因素消退后，2026年 全年通胀率或平均略高于1%。数据显示，法国通胀率已连续一年多低于欧元区平均水平，今年1月仅 ...

消息面上，据新华社报道，18日上午，日本高市早苗内阁全体辞职。 现货白银 XAGUSD ▼ 02/18 09:29:40 交易中 〔]:[休市提醒]中国、韩国、越南市场因春节休市。 图表 快讯 头条 盯盘神器 帖子 资金流向 枢轴 73.139 72.309 昨收 最高 73.089+ 72.309 最低 72.224 今开 +1.08% +0.779 73.349 73.089 买入 型出 分时 1分 5分 1小时 日K 30分 > 田 ○ MA BOLL 神奇九转 | ▽ 聪明钱 银弹 假突破雷达 筹矿 73.118 73.118 -- 73.089 MT 72.806 72.495 72.275 72.183 → 08:17 08:43 09:09 → 记者 | 金珊 编辑 | 江佩霞 2月18日，日经225指数高开，涨幅一度扩大超1%，截至北京时间9:30左右，报57098点。 日债收益率全面下跌，日本10年期国债收益率跌至2.111%。30年期日本国债收益率跌至3.378%。 当地时间18日下午（北京时间18日中午），日本国会众参两院将分别举行首相指名选举。新当选的首相当天将组建新内阁。日本宪法规定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK unemployment rate has risen to its highest level in five years, with wage growth slowing, leading to a decline in the pound and UK government bond yields [1][3]. Employment Data - In January 2026, the number of employees in the UK decreased by 0.4% year-on-year to 30.3 million, which is a reduction of 134,000 from January 2025 and a decrease of 11,000 from the previous month [2][5]. - The unemployment rate increased from 5.1% to 5.2% compared to the previous month [2][5]. Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, the pound fell by 0.5% against the dollar, closing at 1 pound to 1.356 dollars, and dropped 0.2% against the euro [2][5]. - The yield on UK government bonds decreased across the board, with the 10-year bond yield falling nearly 4 basis points to 4.367% and the 30-year bond yield also down by 4 basis points to 5.168% [3][6]. Stock Market Performance - The FTSE 100 index in London rose by 0.4% during afternoon trading [2][5]. - The broader European market showed mixed results, with the Stoxx 600 index hovering around the flat line, while the Italian FTSE MIB index increased by 0.5% and the German DAX index rose by 0.1% [1].

Group 1 - The core prediction for China's GDP in 2025 is approximately 19.64 trillion USD, which is just shy of the 20 trillion USD mark, primarily calculated using the average exchange rate [7][8] - China's nominal GDP growth is projected at 4.06% due to a deflation rate of 1%, with a real growth rate of 5% [3][5] - If inflation were to occur instead of deflation, the nominal GDP growth could reach 7%, resulting in a GDP of 144.2 trillion RMB [5] Group 2 - The United States is expected to surpass 30 trillion USD in GDP by 2025, with a nominal growth rate projected between 4.5% and 5% [11][14] - The U.S. GDP for 2024 is estimated at 29.18 trillion USD, indicating a growth requirement of only 2.8% to reach the 30 trillion USD threshold [11][14] - The GDP gap between China and the U.S. is projected to widen to nearly 11 trillion USD by 2025, marking the largest absolute difference in history [16]

Key Points - The central bank acknowledges a resilient global economy but highlights challenges such as supply-demand imbalances [2][8] - The report indicates that exports will likely remain a crucial support for China's economy in 2026 [2][10] - The midstream manufacturing sector is expected to benefit the most from exports, with a clearer outlook for the next three to six months [2][11] Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [14][18] - The report introduces the goal of guiding reasonable growth in financial totals and balanced credit allocation [14][15] - The central bank plans to utilize various policy tools flexibly and efficiently, including interest rate adjustments [14][15] Structural Policy Changes - The report prioritizes expanding domestic demand over technological innovation in structural monetary policy [18][19] - There is an expectation for new policies related to domestic demand to be introduced, particularly in the context of financial support for key sectors [18][19] Exchange Rate Management - The central bank aims to enhance the exchange rate's role as a stabilizer for the macroeconomy and international balance of payments [19] - The report indicates that a more flexible and two-way floating exchange rate may become the norm, with risks associated with betting on a one-sided exchange rate [19][19]