Assured Guaranty (NYSE:AGO) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 27, 2026 08:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsBenjamin Rosenblum - CFODominic Frederico - President and CEORobert Bailenson - COORobert Tucker - Senior Managing Director, Investor Relations and Corporate CommunicationsConference Call ParticipantsMarissa Lobo - AnalystThomas McJoynt-Griffith - AnalystOperatorGood morning, and welcome to the Assured Guaranty Ltd. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Becky, and I will be th ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - At year-end 2025, the company achieved new per-share highs for adjusted book value at $186.43, adjusted operating shareholders' equity at $126.78, and shareholders' equity at $125.32 [5] - Adjusted operating income per share increased to $9.08 in 2025 from $7.10 in 2024, representing a 28% increase [21] - Fourth quarter 2025 adjusted operating income was $109 million or $2.32 per share, an 83% increase from $66 million or $1.27 per share in the fourth quarter of 2024 [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The present value of new business production (PVP) totaled $286 million in 2025, with significant contributions from all three financial guarantee underwriting groups [5] - The company guaranteed over $27 billion of municipal par, a 16% increase from 2024, and achieved a 15-year high in new issue municipal par sold, representing 58% of the market [12] - The U.S. public finance segment originated $206 million in PVP, with a 19% increase in the second half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. municipal market experienced a second consecutive year of record issuance, driving strong demand for municipal bond insurance [11] - Non-U.S. public finance and global structured finance originations contributed $80 million in PVP for 2025, with notable transactions in the U.K. and European Union [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on sustainable long-term growth, having successfully expanded its U.S. municipal secondary market business, which saw a more than tripling in performance compared to the previous year [6] - The acquisition of Warwick Re Limited, renamed Assured Life Reinsurance, diversifies revenue sources and leverages the company's strengths in credit and structured finance [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the recovery of the U.S. public finance market and infrastructure finance in Europe, anticipating continued strong performance in 2026 [27] - The company highlighted the strength of its underwriting and the successful resolution of previously troubled exposures, which contributed positively to financial results [22] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 12% of its common shares outstanding at the end of 2024, meeting its target of $500 million in share repurchases [6] - A 12% increase in the quarterly dividend per share was announced, marking 14 consecutive years of dividend growth [6] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on issuance in triple B credits and outlook for 2026 - Management noted a positive trend in the fourth quarter and a strong start in the first quarter of 2026, with several transactions already closed in U.S. public finance and infrastructure finance in Europe [27] Question: Outlook on U.K. utilities and Brightline - Management provided an update on U.K. utilities, indicating an upgrade for Southern Water and focusing on Thames as the only problematic exposure, with active engagement in finding a market-based solution [28] - Regarding Brightline, management expressed confidence in the recovery and highlighted a strong position in the capital stack [30] Question: Exposure in alternative investment portfolio and private credit - Management clarified that while they are invested in the CLO market, they do not take direct exposure to private credit and remain confident in the health of their portfolio [35] Question: Capital allocation between annuity reinsurance and stock buyback - Management indicated that capital management opportunities, including stock buybacks, will be assessed based on market conditions and opportunities in the life and annuity space [36]

RBC Capital's price target of $142 for NYSE:APO suggests a potential upside of 24.86%.Apollo is under investigation by Rosen Law Firm for potentially misleading business information, related to consultations with Jeffrey Epstein.The firm has invested $1 billion in Aldar Properties PJSC, marking its fifth investment in the company since 2022, totaling $2.9 billion.Apollo Global Management, Inc. (NYSE:APO) is a leading global alternative investment manager, specializing in private equity, credit, and real est ...

The introduction of private equity into 401(k) accounts is a controversial and much-debated initiative of the Trump administration. A new survey suggests, however, that most rank-and-file Americans seem to like the idea. Two-thirds of registered voters support policies that expand access to private investments in retirement plans, according to a survey from BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager. Roughly the same share, 64%, think all retirement plans should allow the same investment options, the ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - AMG reported full-year economic earnings per share of $26.05, a 22% increase year-over-year, driven by strong organic growth and capital allocation strategy [5][29] - Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $378 million, growing 34% year-over-year, while full-year Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.1 billion, up 11% from 2024 [28] - Economic earnings per share for the fourth quarter were $9.48, reflecting a 45% year-over-year growth [29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - AMG's affiliates generated approximately $29 billion in annual net client cash flows, representing an organic growth rate of 4% [5] - The company added approximately $97 billion in alternative assets under management (AUM), a 35% increase, with $74 billion in net inflows from existing affiliates and $23 billion from new partnerships [6][11] - Fee-related earnings grew 20% year-over-year for the fourth quarter and 8% for the full year, driven by positive investment performance and organic growth [28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - AMG's alternatives business raised $23 billion in net inflows during the fourth quarter, contributing to a record total of $74 billion for the year, which offset $45 billion in outflows from active equities [20] - Private markets affiliates raised $9 billion in the fourth quarter, bringing full-year fundraising to $24 billion, reflecting an 18% annualized organic growth rate [21] - Global wealth AUM at AMG and affiliates exceeded $100 billion, growing organically at over 100% in 2025 [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - AMG's strategy focuses on expanding its footprint in private markets and liquid alternatives, with a commitment to invest in high-quality affiliates and innovative product development [14][24] - The company aims to maintain a balance between growth investments and returning capital to shareholders, with plans to repurchase at least $400 million in shares in 2026 [37] - AMG's unique partnership approach is designed to enhance the long-term success of its affiliates while preserving their independence [8][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term prospects of the business, highlighting the strong momentum entering 2026 and the expectation of continued growth from existing affiliates [15][19] - The company noted that it is still in the early stages of its growth story, with significant opportunities ahead [14] - Management emphasized the importance of product innovation and distribution expansion to drive organic growth [14][75] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately $700 million of its shares in 2025, representing 11% of shares outstanding [5][6] - AMG's strategic engagement in liquidity events resulted in over $730 million in pre-tax distributions, highlighting the underlying value of its affiliates [10] - The company announced a new partnership with Highbrook and a follow-on investment in Garda, both expected to be accretive to earnings in 2026 [9][10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for AQR in 2026 - Management noted that AQR is expected to be a more meaningful contributor in 2026, with strong organic growth and positive momentum dynamics [40][70] Question: Pipeline for Private Markets - Management discussed the strong pipeline for private markets and the innovative products being developed to attract both U.S. and non-U.S. investors [49][51] Question: Global Wealth Management Growth - Management highlighted significant growth in the U.S. wealth management platform, while also acknowledging opportunities for growth in international markets [60][62] Question: Performance Fees Outlook - Management indicated that performance fees are expected to grow over time, particularly as AUM from strategies that earn higher management fees increases [68][72]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in asset allocation over the past four decades, emphasizing the impact of technology on the financial services industry and portfolio construction for retirement income [1]. Group 1: Changes in Asset Allocation - The financial services industry has experienced dramatic changes in asset allocation practices over the last 40 years [1]. - Technology is identified as the main driver behind these changes in asset allocation [1]. Group 2: Alternative Investments - There is a notable rise in alternative investments, which are becoming increasingly important in portfolio construction [1]. - The article highlights how these alternative investments are integrated into strategies for retirement income [1]. Group 3: Behavioral Aspects - The behavioral aspects of asset allocation are also discussed, indicating that investor psychology plays a crucial role in portfolio decisions [1].

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Core Viewpoint - Ares Management Corporation is experiencing significant growth in assets under management and fundraising, positioning itself strongly in the alternative investment sector, with a favorable price target set by Deutsche Bank indicating potential upside for investors [1][2][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Ares Management's assets under management (AUM) surpassed $622 billion, reflecting a 29% increase year over year [2][6]. - The company achieved a record $113 billion in fundraising, showcasing its ability to attract significant capital [2]. - The wealth management division saw AUM rise by 69% year over year to over $66 billion, driven by the acquisition of GCP [3][6]. - Ares Management reported a 20% year-over-year increase in its first-quarter 2026 common dividend, indicating robust financial health [4]. Group 2: Market Position and Stock Performance - Ares Management competes with major firms like Blackstone and KKR, highlighting its strong market position [1]. - Deutsche Bank set a price target of $155 for ARES, suggesting a potential upside of 27.18% from its current trading price of $121.87 [1][6]. - Despite a recent decrease of $15.35, or approximately -11.19%, ARES stock has fluctuated between a low of $119.47 and a high of $132.93 during the trading day [5].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ares Management achieved a record $994 million in management fees for Q4 2025, totaling $3.7 billion for the full year, representing a 27% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 25% increase year-over-year [28] - Fee-related earnings (FRE) for the full year increased by 30% compared to the prior period, with a record FRE of $528 million in Q4, reflecting a 33% year-over-year growth [31] - Realized income for Q4 reached a record $589 million, with full-year realized income exceeding $1.8 billion, marking a 26% increase from 2024 [34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The wealth management business saw AUM grow to over $66 billion, a 69% increase year-over-year, driven by strong performance across semi-liquid wealth products [7][22] - The real estate group raised more than $16 billion for the year, including over $7 billion in Q4, with significant commitments in various real estate strategies [18] - The secondaries group raised $12.9 billion for the full year, with AUM increasing by 45%, nearly doubling in size since the acquisition of Landmark [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ares Management's total AUM reached over $622 billion, a 29% increase year-over-year, with $113 billion in total fundraising for 2025 [5] - The company reported a record $46 billion in deployment for Q4, with full-year gross deployment totaling $146 billion, a 37% increase over 2024 [6] - The private equity business reported organic portfolio company EBITDA growth of 13% for the last 12 months in its latest fund, ACOF Six [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Ares Management is focused on expanding its investment platform and geographic reach, with significant investments in new data systems and AI projects to enhance decision-making and operational efficiency [7][8] - The acquisition of GCP has positioned Ares as a global top three owner and operator of industrial real estate, contributing to the growth of its real estate and digital infrastructure offerings [7] - The company aims to leverage its diverse strategies across asset classes and geographies to capture growth opportunities, particularly in real assets and secondaries [68] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the improving transaction environment and pent-up demand for private equity sponsors seeking liquidity solutions, supported by a large inventory of seasoned assets and an improving interest rate environment [12][13] - The company anticipates 2026 to be a significant year for realizing European-style performance fees, with expectations for substantial growth in fee-related performance revenues [28] - Management highlighted strong fundamentals across credit portfolios, with loan-to-value ratios near historical lows and improving interest coverage [34][43] Other Important Information - Ares Management declared a 20% year-over-year increase in its first quarter 2026 common dividend to $1.35 per share [3] - The company has a substantial dry powder of $156 billion, positioning it well for future investments [27] - Ares is well-prepared to navigate market challenges, including potential risks from AI disruptions, with a diversified portfolio and strong fundamentals [42][43] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of software AI disruption on deployment efforts - Management expressed confidence in their software investments, emphasizing the diversification and stability of their portfolio, and noted that the disruption would not significantly impact overall origination volumes [47][50] Question: Wealth channel performance and sentiment - Management reported strong flows in January and February, with broad-based demand across private credit and core infrastructure products, indicating resilience in the wealth channel despite some cyclicality [54][59] Question: Outlook for real assets and secondaries - Management highlighted ongoing growth in real estate and secondaries, with expectations for significant fundraising and deployment opportunities in these areas [64][71]

Company Overview - Vinci Compass Investments Ltd. is a leading alternative investments and global solutions provider in Latin America with nearly three decades of experience [1] - The company operates from eleven offices in Latin America and the US, managing a diverse range of investment segments including Private Equity, Credit, Real Estate, Infrastructure, Forestry, Equities, Global Investment Products & Solutions, and Corporate Advisory [1] Financial Results Announcement - The company will release its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 after market close on March 04, 2026 [1] - A conference call will be hosted via Zoom at 5:00 pm ET on the same day, with a replay available for those unable to attend the live broadcast [1] Assets Under Management - As of September 2025, Vinci Compass had R$316 billion in assets under management and advisory [1]