Core Insights - The outflow of approximately $8.5 billion from US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds since October 10 indicates a significant decline in institutional interest in Bitcoin [1][17] - Bitcoin's price has dropped over 40% despite other asset classes like stocks and precious metals gaining traction, highlighting a unique market dynamic [1][17] - The shift in market dynamics has seen American retail and institutional capital become the marginal price-setter, replacing retail traders on offshore exchanges [2][17] Market Dynamics - Futures exposure on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has decreased by about two-thirds from its late-2024 peak, now standing at roughly $8 billion [1][17] - The demand for borrowed exposure on the CME is at its lowest since mid-2023, indicating a lack of leverage and fewer forced buyers during price increases [7][17] - The institutional wave has been characterized by mechanical trading strategies, such as basis trades, which have lost their rationale as spreads compressed below Treasury yields [8][9] Structural Issues - The institutionalization of Bitcoin has not eliminated volatility but has instead reallocated it, concentrating risk in ways that become apparent during market shifts [12][18] - Many ETF investors are currently below their average cost basis, leading to selling pressure during price bounces as they seek to break even [13][18] - The introduction of products like BlackRock's IBIT has created localized stabilization in Bitcoin prices, but these structures can exaggerate price movements when significant catalysts occur [14][18] Market Sentiment - The market has lost its ability to respond positively to good news, as evidenced by the quick fade of enthusiasm following announcements like BlackRock's product tied to Uniswap [18] - The breakdown of market structure on October 10 has led to unprecedented drawdowns, surpassing those seen in previous downturns [17][18]

we discuss ideas like this as they happen in more detail. All active investors are welcome to join on a free trial and ask any question in our chat room full of sophisticated traders and investors.In the following lines, we will take a look at a company that we have reviewed before - Vornado Realty Trust ( VNO ) and its financial instruments (you can see our last article here ). VNO announcedArbitrage Trader, aka Denislav Iliev has been day trading for 15+ years and leads a team of 40 analysts. They identif ...

Core Viewpoint - DeFi Technologies Inc. is facing a securities fraud class action lawsuit due to significant declines in revenue and misleading statements regarding its business operations and prospects during the class period from May 12, 2025, to November 14, 2025 [1][5]. Group 1: Company Performance - On November 6, 2025, DeFi reported that its digital asset treasuries had absorbed or delayed a significant share of arbitrage opportunities, leading to a stock price drop of $0.13, or 7.4%, closing at $1.62 per share [2]. - The company announced a nearly 20% revenue decline in its third quarter 2025 results and significantly lowered its revenue forecast for the year due to delays in executing its arbitrage strategy [3]. - Following the financial results announcement, DeFi's stock price fell by $0.40, or 27.6%, over two trading days, closing at $1.05 per share [4]. Group 2: Lawsuit Details - The class action lawsuit alleges that DeFi made materially false and misleading statements and failed to disclose adverse facts about its business, including delays in its arbitrage strategy and underestimating competition from other digital asset treasury companies [5]. - The lawsuit claims that these issues led to an inability to meet previously issued revenue guidance for fiscal year 2025, and that positive statements made by the company were misleading and lacked a reasonable basis [5]. Group 3: Investor Participation - Investors who acquired DeFi securities during the class period have until January 30, 2026, to seek appointment as lead plaintiff in the securities fraud class action [1][6].

Core Insights - In a climate of uncertainty and stress, investors are increasingly seeking safer investment alternatives, with preferred shares being highlighted as a viable option [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Arbitrage Trader, led by Denislav Iliev, has over 15 years of experience in day trading and manages a team of 40 analysts focused on identifying mispriced investments in fixed-income and closed-end funds [1]. - The investing group Trade With Beta offers features such as frequent picks for mispriced preferred stocks and baby bonds, weekly reviews of over 1200 equities, IPO previews, hedging strategies, and an actively managed portfolio [1].

Group 1 - Bitcoin (BTC) continues to experience rangebound trading, with recent tests of mid $90k levels failing and dropping below $87k after three consecutive days of decline [1][2] - The upcoming macroeconomic events, including Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports, could influence market expectations for rate cuts, which may impact BTC and other cryptocurrencies [2] - Perpetual futures funding rates for BTC are flat at around 3% annualized on centralized exchanges, while decentralized exchanges (DEX) show higher rates around 11% annualized, indicating potential for arbitrage trading [3]

Market Overview - Bitcoin is currently defending the $92,000 level as US markets approach closing, with a trading range established between $92,000 and $94,000 [1] - Both long and short traders have faced liquidation this week, with long positions being liquidated today [1] Bitcoin Options and Funding Rates - Funding rates for Bitcoin are mixed across different venues as traders assess market direction [2] - There is notable activity in the options market, with over 500 contracts traded for puts expiring on December 26, 2025, at strike prices ranging from $92,000 to $80,000 [2] - Calls slightly above the $100,000 strike are also seeing increased volume, indicating potential bullish sentiment [2] Ethereum Market Activity - Ethereum has surpassed the $3,200 mark for the first time since mid-November, driven by excitement surrounding the Fusaka upgrade [3] - The Fusaka upgrade is expected to positively impact layer 2 solutions, potentially boosting momentum as the year ends [3] - Funding rates for Ethereum perpetual futures are mixed, with some centralized exchanges showing negative annualized rates while decentralized exchanges exhibit positive rates [3] Ethereum Options Trading - Heavy trading activity is observed in Ethereum end-of-year options, particularly in calls with strike prices between $3,500 and $4,100 [4] - There is also a significant number of puts being purchased in the $2,400 to $2,700 strike range, indicating a protective strategy among traders as the year concludes [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the activities of Denislav Iliev, an experienced day trader with over 15 years in the field, who leads a team of 40 analysts focused on identifying mispriced investments in fixed-income and closed-end funds [2] Group 1: Company Overview - Denislav Iliev leads the investing group Trade With Beta, which offers features such as frequent picks for mispriced preferred stocks and baby bonds, weekly reviews of over 1200 equities, IPO previews, and hedging strategies [2] Group 2: Services Offered - The service includes an actively managed portfolio and a chat room for discussions among sophisticated traders and investors, allowing for real-time engagement and idea sharing [1][2]

Group 1 - Kostas Bintas, head of metals at Mercuria Energy Group, reiterated a bullish outlook on copper prices, warning of potential depletion of copper inventories outside the U.S. due to a surge in metal inflow into the U.S. market [1] - Bintas highlighted that profitable arbitrage trading is returning, leading to supply shortages outside the U.S. and pushing copper prices higher, with even Chinese buyers likely needing to pay higher premiums to secure supply [1][2] - The current market dynamics, characterized by weak demand and surplus yet rising prices, is seen as a "special dynamic" that could lead to shortages in the Chinese market as metal continues to flow to the U.S. [2] Group 2 - The U.S. has become the largest consumer of copper globally, with significant premiums on New York futures prices compared to London benchmarks, driven by U.S. policy and tariff speculation [3] - The market is experiencing a "dual-speed" mechanism, where LME and Shanghai copper contracts are supported by Russian and Chinese metals, while metals deliverable to Comex enjoy high premiums [3] - Traders are pushing up premiums for deliverable copper, with some attempting to buy Chilean copper at premiums exceeding $500 over LME prices, indicating a significant price increase in the Asian market [4] Group 3 - Bintas anticipates a tighter market scenario if U.S. copper prices continue to rise to $12,000 or $15,000, which would lead to a significant outflow of Chinese copper cathodes [5] - As Chinese buyers return from the Spring Festival, they may find insufficient copper supply in the market, exacerbating the tightness [5]

Core Insights - The article focuses on the iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF (PFF), which has over 450 holdings primarily consisting of preferred stocks, baby bonds, and stocks with bond-like characteristics [1]. Group 1: ETF Overview - iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF (PFF) is highlighted for its extensive portfolio, which includes a diverse range of preferred stocks and income-generating securities [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The article mentions the role of Denislav Iliev, an experienced day trader with over 15 years in the field, who leads a team of 40 analysts to identify mispriced investments in fixed-income and closed-end funds [2]. - The investment group Trade With Beta, led by Denislav, provides features such as frequent picks for mispriced preferred stocks and baby bonds, weekly reviews of over 1200 equities, IPO previews, and hedging strategies [2].

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential value of investing in floating-rate fixed-income securities during a cycle of decreasing Fed-Funds rates, which may initially seem unpopular [1] - Denislav Iliev, an experienced day trader with over 15 years in the field, leads a team of 40 analysts focused on identifying mispriced investments in fixed-income and closed-end funds [1] - The investment group Trade With Beta offers features such as frequent picks for mispriced preferred stocks and baby bonds, weekly reviews of over 1200 equities, IPO previews, and hedging strategies [1]