Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (NYSE:PEB) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 26, 2026 09:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsAri Klein - Director of Equity ResearchDori Kesten - DirectorJon Bortz - CEO and Chairman of the BoardRaymond Martz - Co-President, CFO, Treasurer and SecretaryRich Hightower - Managing Director and U.S. REIT Equity ResearchSmedes Rose - DirectorThomas Fisher - Co-President and Chief Investment OfficerConference Call ParticipantsChris Darling - Senior Analyst and Head of U.S. Lodging and Gaming Researc ...

We came across a bullish thesis on Pebblebrook Hotel Trust on Cundill Deep Value’s Substack by FRAGMENTS. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on PEB. Pebblebrook Hotel Trust's share was trading at $12.42 as of February 9th. PEB’s trailing and forward P/E were 11.29 and 24.57, respectively according to Yahoo Finance. Equinox (EQX) Hits New High as Firm Pivots to Strong Quarter Kaspars Grinvalds/Shutterstock.com Pebblebrook Hotel Trust is a publicly traded real estate investment trust and ...

Core Insights - The company is experiencing a year-over-year growth of 5.4% and a two-year stacked growth of 10%, indicating strong operational performance and a compelling value proposition in the REIT sector [1] - The company has increased its 2026 investment guidance to a range of $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion, reflecting a 10% increase from the previous range, supported by a robust pipeline of over $500 million [2][4] - The company has a strong balance sheet with a pro forma net debt to recurring EBITDA of 3.8 times, allowing for significant investment activity without the need for additional equity [2][16] Financial Performance - The company achieved a core FFO per share of $1.10 for Q4 and $4.28 for the full year 2025, representing year-over-year increases of 7.3% and 4.6% respectively [17] - The AFFO per share for Q4 was $1.11, reflecting a 6.5% year-over-year increase, while the full year AFFO per share was $4.33, at the high end of guidance [17] - The company has initiated full-year AFFO per share guidance of $4.54 to $4.58 for 2026, indicating a midpoint growth of approximately 5.4% [17][19] Investment Activity - In 2025, the company invested approximately $1.55 billion across three investment platforms, marking a 60% year-over-year growth [4][6] - During Q4, the company invested about $377 million in 94 high-quality retail net leased properties, with a significant portion leased to leading operators in various sectors [5][6] - The company has a record year in its development and DFP platforms, with 34 projects either completed or under construction, representing approximately $225 million of committed capital [7] Portfolio Management - The company disposed of 22 properties for gross proceeds of over $44 million, focusing on capital recycling of non-core assets [10] - The portfolio consists of nearly 2,700 properties across all 50 states, with an occupancy rate of 99.7% and investment-grade exposure at nearly 67% [11][10] - The company executed new leases, extensions, or options in approximately 3 million square feet of gross leasable area for the full year 2025, achieving a recapture rate of 104% [9] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing IT improvements to drive efficiencies and reduce G&A as a percentage of revenue, anticipating approximately 30 basis points of G&A savings relative to total revenues [3][30] - The company has raised approximately $1.5 billion in capital, including a $400 million bond offering and a $350 million term loan, enhancing its liquidity position [12][15] - The company has established a commercial paper program, becoming one of only 19 US REITs with such a program, which has provided significant savings compared to traditional borrowing methods [12][16]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2026, adjusted EBITDA increased by $8.1 million, or nearly 11%, totaling $83.4 million compared to the prior year [7][10] - Net income for the first quarter was $38 million, equating to $0.59 per common unit [10] - Total gross margin for the first quarter was $238.6 million, an increase of $16.1 million, or 7.2%, driven by higher propane volume sold and increased propane unit margins [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail propane gallons sold totaled 100 million, reflecting a 4.2% increase compared to the prior year [10] - Average daily renewable natural gas (RNG) injection increased both sequentially and year-over-year due to operational enhancements at the Stanfield, Arizona facility [7][8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average temperatures during the first quarter were 6% warmer than normal and 6% colder than the prior year, impacting demand variably across regions [11] - Wholesale propane prices remained in the $0.60 per gallon range, down from $0.90 per gallon a year ago [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on long-term strategic growth plans, including the acquisition of two propane businesses in California and progressing capital projects to grow RNG production [9][17] - The company aims to maintain a strong balance sheet while investing in sustainable and renewable fuel markets [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the impact of colder weather on heat-related demand and expressed confidence in meeting customer needs despite challenges from harsh weather [6][16] - The company remains committed to growing its core propane business while leveraging competencies to expand into alternative, lower carbon fuels [17] Other Important Information - The Board of Supervisors declared a quarterly distribution of $0.325 per common unit, equating to an annualized rate of $1.30 per common unit [16] - The company borrowed $115.4 million under its revolving credit facility to fund seasonal working capital needs [14] Q&A Session Summary - No questions were posed during the Q&A session, and the call concluded without further inquiries [18][20]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full year 2025, the company reported FFO per share of $2.00, which is approximately 3% above initial expectations [3] - Fourth quarter FFO per share was $0.47, a decrease of about $0.02 compared to Q3 2025, primarily due to non-recurrence of termination fees recognized in Q3 [20] - Same-store cash NOI for the full year increased by 0.5% compared to 2024, with office increasing by 2.3%, retail by 1.2%, multifamily declining by 3.2%, and mixed-use declining by 6.7% [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The office segment saw continued leasing progress, with same-store office NOI increasing just over 1% for the quarter and nearly 2.5% for the full year [8] - Retail segment ended the year at 98% leased, with positive cash and GAAP leasing spreads for the quarter, and leasing spreads for the year were 7% on a cash basis and 22% on a GAAP basis [11] - Multifamily segment ended the year 95.5% leased, achieving approximately 1% net effective rent growth year over year, despite competitive leasing conditions [12][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In West Coast office markets, signs of stabilization and gradual improvement in leasing activity were noted, with vacancy trends showing early signs of stabilization [6][7] - The company reported that occupancy averaged roughly 82% in the mixed-use segment, with RevPAR down approximately 7% to about $296 due to softer tourism trends [22] - Retail availability is expected to remain near record lows nationally, supporting asking rents [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to drive office leasing by converting prospect activity into signed leases and maintaining retail momentum by managing expirations and focusing on tenant quality [18] - The strategy includes managing through the multifamily supply cycle with disciplined revenue management and cost control [18] - The company is focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet and improving valuation over time, with a target to achieve long-term net debt to EBITDA of 5.5x or below [24][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the company's coastal infill locations and high-quality real estate positioning to capture demand as it materializes [5] - The outlook for 2026 includes a FFO guidance range of $1.96-$2.10 per share, with a midpoint of $2.03, reflecting a conservative approach to guidance [25][19] - Management acknowledged macroeconomic uncertainties but emphasized the importance of consistent operational execution and cash flow durability [16] Other Important Information - The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.34 per share for the first quarter, with expectations to maintain the dividend at current levels [17] - Liquidity at the end of the fourth quarter was approximately $529 million, with a leverage ratio of 6.9x on a trailing twelve-month basis [23][24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding elevated TIs for renewals, is this a strategic decision or reflective of weak demand? - Management indicated that higher capital burdens for office leasing are expected to moderate as occupancy improves and availability tightens, with specific examples of tenant renewals driving elevated TIs [36][37] Question: What is the timeline to achieve the target leverage of 5.5x? - Management stated that leasing up La Jolla Commons III and One Beach will help achieve the target leverage, aiming for a timeline as soon as those properties are leased up [40] Question: Are there any strategic asset sales planned to improve stock valuation? - Management remains pragmatic about asset sales, willing to sell at fair value but not at a discount, focusing on discipline and long-term value creation [42][43] Question: What is the current status of leasing activity and tenant types? - Management reported a diverse range of high-quality tenants driving demand, with significant leasing activity at La Jolla Commons III and One Beach [72][73] Question: Can you elaborate on the credit reserves included in guidance? - Management clarified that the credit reserves are a conservative measure, with no acute concerns about specific tenants, but a general reserve for potential issues [84][85] Question: What is the path back to 90% occupancy in the office segment? - Management believes achieving 90% occupancy is reasonable within two years, emphasizing the investments made in spec suites and the quality of inventory available [86][88]

Core Insights - American Bitcoin has increased its bitcoin reserves to approximately 5,843 BTC, positioning it among the largest corporate holders of the cryptocurrency globally [1][2] - The company achieved a bitcoin yield of roughly 116% from its Nasdaq debut on September 3, 2025, through January 25, 2026, indicating effective accumulation during a volatile crypto market [1][2] - American Bitcoin is now the 18th-largest corporate holder of bitcoin, surpassing companies like Nakamoto Inc. and GameStop Corp. [2] Company Performance - Shares of American Bitcoin rose about 2% in premarket trading, although the stock is down approximately 11% year-to-date due to macroeconomic conditions and bitcoin price fluctuations [3] - The company reported a return to profitability in its Q3 2025 earnings, with a significant increase in revenue attributed to expanded mining capacity and higher bitcoin prices earlier in the cycle [5] - Since its Q3 earnings report, American Bitcoin's bitcoin holdings have increased by over 1,800 coins, rising from just over 4,000 BTC [5] Strategic Positioning - The growth in bitcoin reserves reflects a trend among publicly listed miners to treat bitcoin as a long-term asset rather than a source of immediate liquidity [6] - This strategy is gaining traction despite bitcoin trading below recent highs and a broader market shift towards precious metals and bonds [6] - American Bitcoin's increasing reserves provide insight into how mining firms are managing their balance sheets in a post-ETF, institution-heavy bitcoin market [6]

Core Insights - Associated Banc-Corp (ASB) reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings of 80 cents per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 69 cents and up from adjusted earnings of 57 cents in the prior-year quarter [1][10] Financial Performance - Net income available to common equity was $134 million, a significant recovery from a loss of $164 million in the year-ago quarter, surpassing the estimate of $111 million [2] - Total revenues for the quarter were $393.5 million, an increase from adjusted revenues of $346 million in the prior-year quarter, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $379.7 million [3] - Net interest income (NII) rose to $310 million, a 15% increase year over year, with a net interest margin of 3.06%, up 25 basis points [4] - Non-interest income totaled $79.4 million, improving 11% from adjusted non-interest income of $71.8 million, driven by increases in wealth management fees and capital markets revenue, exceeding the estimate of $70.1 million [5] - Non-interest expenses decreased to $219 million, down 2% year over year, reflecting the absence of prior-year losses on prepayments of FHLB advances [6] Loans and Deposits - Total loans as of December 31, 2025, were $31.2 billion, up 1% sequentially, primarily due to higher commercial and business lending [7] - Total deposits rose 2% sequentially to $35.6 billion, exceeding the estimate of $35.3 billion [7] Credit Quality - The company recorded a provision for credit losses of $7 million, down from $17 million in the prior-year quarter, significantly lower than the estimate of $18.8 million [8] - Total non-performing assets were $129.2 million, a 10% decrease year over year, with non-accrual loans falling 19% to $100.4 million [8] Capital Ratios - As of December 31, 2025, the common equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio improved to 10.49%, up from 10.33% in the corresponding period of 2024, while the Tier 1 capital ratio rose to 11.04% from 10.89% [11] Future Outlook - Management expects total period-end loan growth of 5-6% and total deposit growth in the same range for 2026 [12] - NII is projected to grow by 5.5-6.5%, while total non-interest income is expected to rise by 4-5% [12] - Total non-interest expense is anticipated to grow by 3% [12] - The annual effective tax rate is expected to be between 19-21% [13] Overall Assessment - ASB's strong quarterly performance reflects the benefits of its diversified franchise and disciplined balance sheet management, with positive indicators for sustained growth [14]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net income of $7.6 million, or $0.25 per diluted share, compared to a loss of $67.5 million, or $2.22 per share, in the previous quarter [6] - Non-performing loans decreased to $106.8 million, down $12 million from the prior quarter, representing 1.47% of total loans [7] - Total non-performing assets declined by $24 million to $108.9 million, representing 1.04% of total assets, down from 1.23% in the prior quarter [7] - The allowance for credit losses ended the quarter at $159.6 million, or 2.19% of total loans [8] - Tangible common equity to tangible assets is 10.87%, with a Tier 1 leverage ratio of 10.17% and CET1 at 13.83% [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net interest income grew by $144,000 to $68.3 million, with a net interest margin (NIM) decline of five basis points to 2.38% [9] - Non-interest income increased to $12.2 million compared to $2.5 million in the previous quarter, primarily due to non-reoccurring losses and gains from SBIC investments [10] - Non-interest expense rose by $17.9 million to $59.8 million, driven by costs associated with the disposition of held-for-sale loans and valuation adjustments [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a reduction in brokered deposits by $602 million while increasing core deposits by $692 million during 2025 [11] - The concentration ratio for commercial real estate (CRE) loans to total risk-based capital and reserves declined to 322% [9] - The acquisition, development, and construction (ADC) concentration ratio decreased to 88% as of year-end [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is transitioning from remediation to execution, focusing on consistent performance and reducing risk concentration [4] - The strategic plan includes improving asset quality and enhancing the balance sheet to support sustainable earnings [4][14] - The company aims to expand pre-provision net revenue in 2026, despite a smaller average balance sheet, prioritizing shareholder returns and profitability [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the company's direction, highlighting improved asset quality and a stronger foundation [14] - The expectation is for average deposits, loans, and earning assets to decline year-over-year due to deliberate balance sheet repositioning [11] - Management anticipates a meaningful expansion in net interest margin, forecasting NIM to range between 2.6% and 2.8% for the year [12] Other Important Information - The company has $4.7 billion in available liquidity, maintaining two-times coverage of uninsured deposits [11] - The company is actively reducing brokered deposits and expects to continue this trend into 2026 [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more details on the asset dispositions and the expected timing? - The company has $90.7 million of loans held for sale, with two-thirds scheduled for resolution in the first quarter, though it may extend into the second quarter [19] Question: What is the outlook for further moves into held-for-sale loans? - There may be situations where selling loans is the best strategy, but the pace will not match that of 2025 [20] Question: What trends are being observed in the multifamily sector? - There is stabilization and improvement in multifamily loans, with strong valuations compared to the office market [22] Question: How does the company view the provisioning for loan losses moving forward? - The company expects provision expenses to be higher than in 2024 but not at the levels seen in 2025, with a focus on the criticized classified portfolio [36] Question: What is the current status of brokered deposits and cash levels? - The company holds $1.56 billion in brokered deposits, with plans to reduce this significantly throughout 2026 [56]

Core Insights - The webinar featured key executives from major companies in the dry bulk shipping sector, discussing market dynamics and strategic considerations [1] Group 1: Company Strategies - Wah Kwong Maritime Services employs a strategy that balances spot and time charters based on market views and risk management [2] - EuroDry focuses on mid-sized dry bulk segments, avoiding smaller Handysize and larger Capesize vessels, and emphasizes a balanced fleet post-merger with Eagle Bulk Shipping [3] - Pangaea Logistics Solutions prioritizes customer needs, utilizing voyage charter contracts and long-term COAs while mixing spot market activity with contracted cargoes [4] Group 2: Financial Management - EuroDry advocates for a medium leverage strategy targeting approximately 50% loan-to-value to enhance equity returns while remaining resilient during downturns [5] - Pangaea's debt to fair market value is around 40-45%, indicating a comfortable leverage level, while Star Bulk focuses on using cash flow for stock buybacks rather than increasing leverage [6] Group 3: Market Outlook - The dry bulk shipping market experienced volatility, with a weak first half of the year followed by a stronger second half, leading to cautious optimism among executives [7] - Forecasts suggest a modest market correction, with geopolitical factors becoming increasingly significant in influencing freight rates, which are expected to remain stable with a potential variance of 20%-25% [8] - Optimism remains regarding strong volumes for coal, grain, and minor bulks, despite concerns over coal demand due to warm weather [9][10] Group 4: Fleet and Order Book - The newbuild order book is considered manageable, with Kamsarmax at approximately 14% and Ultramax at 11.5%, well within historical norms [11] - Shifts in Chinese demand, particularly in steel exports and power demand from AI data centers, are creating beneficial long-haul shipping demand for raw materials and finished steel [12]

Core Viewpoint - The prediction markets indicate that Kevin Hasset has a 53% chance of being appointed as the new Fed Chair, while Kevin Worsh's odds have dropped to 34%, highlighting a competitive selection process for the position [1]. Economic Growth and Monetary Policy - Anticipated GDP growth is expected to accelerate due to $400 billion in fiscal policy and the Fed's rate cuts, leading to significant fiscal and monetary policy actions by 2026 [3]. - Historically, economic growth tends to accelerate from the first year of a president to the midterm year, which typically results in rising bond yields and a defensive stock market [4]. Candidates' Perspectives - Both candidates, Hasset and Worsh, believe in a productivity boom that could allow for lower Fed funds rates, with recent employment data suggesting a need for a lower neutral rate [6]. - The differences between the two candidates may be more pronounced in their approaches to the Fed's balance sheet rather than in their rate policies [8]. Balance Sheet and Financial Regulation - Worsh has been described as hawkish regarding the Fed's balance sheet, arguing it should not be at its current level, which is linked to financial regulation issues [9][10]. - The Fed is currently expanding its balance sheet to address a shortage of bank reserves, a situation expected to change with financial deregulation anticipated in 2026 [10][11].