Bhutan’s mining operation was slated to produce up to 600MW of BTC mining power in a partnership with Bitdeer Technologies, but on-chain data shows that their mining speed has slowed since the halving in April 2024.In addition to this, Bhutan sold at least $100M of their Bitcoin during September, and appears to be continuing its gradual selling activity. Bhutan currently holds $372M BTC in identified wallets. ...

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Core Insights - Bitcoin mining has become less lucrative due to multiple halving events that have significantly reduced rewards despite an increase in Bitcoin prices [3][4] - Companies in the crypto industry are pivoting from Bitcoin mining to artificial intelligence (AI) due to the decline in profitability [5] Industry Overview - Bitcoin mining involves using specialized hardware to solve cryptographic functions, allowing miners to verify and add BTC transactions to the blockchain in exchange for rewards [2] - The profitability of Bitcoin mining attracted many tech enthusiasts during the pandemic, but the situation has changed drastically [3] Company Actions - Bitfarms Ltd. plans to wind down its Bitcoin mining business by 2027 and transition to AI operations [5] - Tether Holdings has also announced the shutdown of its Bitcoin mining operations in Uruguay [5] - Bit Digital, which began mining Bitcoin in 2020, is now planning to shut down its Bitcoin mining operations and has shifted focus to AI [7]

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Bitcoin has long been defined by sharp price swings, rapid cycles and a mining economy driven by block rewards. As the industry moves deeper into a post-halving era, that model may be starting to change. According to Abundant Mines CEO Beau Turner, Bitcoin miners are quietly preparing for a future where mining looks less like speculative extraction and more like critical infrastructure. In a recent interview with TheStreet Roundtable, Turner said many of the industry’s largest miners are already adjusti ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin (BTC) closed 2025 with a negative yearly return of 6%, marking the first time in a post-halving year that it ended in the red, deviating from historical trends [2][6] - The traditional "4-year cycle" associated with Bitcoin's halving events is being questioned, with some analysts suggesting it may be evolving due to market maturation rather than being entirely broken [4][6] Historical Performance - Historically, Bitcoin's price has peaked in the year following the halving, with significant positive returns observed in previous cycles: - 2012-2013: +8,480% to +7,000% - 2016-2017: +285% to +1,300% - 2020-2021: +560% - 2024-2025: -6% to -7%, the weakest post-halving performance on record [3][4] Market Dynamics - The impact of Bitcoin's halving events appears to be diminishing in an increasingly institutionalized market, with the 2024 halving reducing issuance from 1.7% to 0.85% annually, as approximately 94% of Bitcoin is already mined [7] - Institutional dominance has increased, with the launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 leading to cumulative inflows of approximately $56–$87 billion, tying Bitcoin more closely to traditional risk assets [7] Correlation and Macro Factors - Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ rose significantly in 2025, indicating its behavior as a "macro asset" sensitive to interest rates, liquidity, and equity sentiment [7] - Macro headwinds, including geopolitical tensions and Fed policy tightening, contributed to Bitcoin's underperformance, with it lagging behind gold, which performed well as a traditional hedge [7] Market Sentiment and Speculation - The early bull run in 2024 was driven by ETF hype, peaking early in 2025 before a correction occurred, suggesting a shift in market sentiment [7] - Reduced retail speculation is evident, with lower volatility and perpetual futures basis rates reflecting a more mature trading environment dominated by institutional players, accounting for 60% or more of trading volume [7]

Core Insights - The artificial intelligence (AI) bubble is under scrutiny, yet Wall Street dealmaking persists due to the ongoing demand for power from bitcoin miners and data center developers [1] - Demand for power from bitcoin miners is substantial, but the demand from AI and high-performance computing (HPC) is even greater, with clients reporting a need for GPU-ready facilities [2] Industry Dynamics - Following the bitcoin halving, miners experienced a margin squeeze, prompting a shift towards hosting AI and HPC hardware in their data centers, which has positively impacted BTC mining stocks amid AI market hype [3] - Concerns about AI valuations have led to significant market value losses for major tech companies, including Nvidia and CoreWeave, with CoreWeave's stock down over 50% from its peak [4] Demand and Valuation - Despite market fluctuations, demand for data center capacity remains strong, with companies confirming they have tenants and are receiving favorable rates [5] - Companies have benefited from higher valuation multiples and favorable capital-raising conditions despite recent selloffs [6] M&A Activity - The ongoing demand for power is driving M&A negotiations, with attractive financial metrics for power in competitive locations [7] - Valuations for power can reach over $400,000 per megawatt, with potential peaks of $450,000 per megawatt, and previous deals have been priced as high as $500,000 to $550,000 per megawatt [8]

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Core Viewpoint - Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, believes that Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle will be disrupted due to increased institutional investment, leading to reduced volatility and potentially preventing significant price declines [1][4]. Group 1: Bitcoin's Market Dynamics - Historically, Bitcoin experienced price drops of 75-90% in its early days, but recent trends indicate that volatility is decreasing as institutional interest grows [1]. - The last Bitcoin halving occurred on April 20, 2024, reducing the mining reward to 3.125 bitcoins, which has historically led to bull runs by limiting new supply [1][2]. - Wood posits that Bitcoin is transitioning to a "risk-on asset," aligning more closely with the performance of stocks and real estate, contrasting with its previous role as a "risk-off asset" during times of economic distress [2][3]. Group 2: Institutional Influence and Predictions - Wood's investment strategy includes increasing positions in crypto-related companies such as Coinbase and Circle, as well as in the Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, indicating a strong belief in the future of cryptocurrencies [4]. - Standard Chartered has also suggested that the traditional halving cycle may no longer be a relevant price driver due to the impact of ETF buying, challenging previous market logic [4][5]. - The prediction market Myriad indicates a mere 4% chance of Bitcoin outperforming gold by 2025, reflecting skepticism about Bitcoin's future performance compared to traditional safe-haven assets [3].