Stifel Financial, a 136-year-old investment bank, says Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) could still fall to $38,000—a 43% drop from current levels near $65,000 and a full 70% crash from October's $126,000 peak. The firm's chief equity strategist, Barry Bannister, built the case on 15 years of bear market data. He drew a trendline through every major Bitcoin crash since 2010—the 93% collapse in 2011, the 84% drop in 2015, the 83% slide in 2018, and the 76% decline in 2022—and noticed that each bottom landed higher than ...

I am enjoying this um poly market on the price of Bitcoin uh in 2026. Let's look at the odds that Bitcoin falls below 50K this cycle. The odds right now are 66%.>> That's really high. That's really high. 66% chance that we lose $16,000 off of Bitcoin.The equivalent price in the other direction, 72% chance that it goes up to $80,000. So you can hedge, you can trade on Bitcoin price on Polyark if you so wish. You can also like just think about setting buy ticks, you know, under 50K.>> Oh yeah, you can use Pol ...

$1 was the milestone 15 years ago.What will $BTC's price be in 2041? Drop your thoughts 👇 https://t.co/9saFjCD7UJ ...

What do you think? 🤔👇#Duelbits #Adhttps://t.co/S5qiSWlBYlDuelbitsPredict (@DuelbitsPredict):Bitcoin bounce incoming? 🟠57% chance $BTC closes above $83K (10pm UTC).Take a position here 👉 https://t.co/vkYyN1EV9d#Bitcoin #BitcoinPricePrediction https://t.co/X0PuH3SyZC ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin price action has cooled after failing to break above $100,000, leading to a consolidation phase with signs of stabilization rather than aggressive selling [1] - On-chain and macro indicators suggest improving conditions, with investor positioning indicating a cautiously bullish setup for February [1] Market Indicators - The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio based on a 90-day simple moving average is crucial for a sustained Bitcoin rally, historically rising above the 5.0 threshold indicates strong upside phases [2] - Past mid-cycle recoveries show that if the ratio fails to hold above 5.0, rallies lose momentum quickly, while a renewed move above this level suggests new capital entering the market [3] Macro Conditions - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged supports macro conditions, with Chair Jerome Powell indicating rates are within a "neutral range," suggesting a potential extended pause [4] - Market psychology, as indicated by Santiment data, shows cautious sentiment which often favors gradual upside continuation [5] ETF Flows - Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen persistent net outflows, with $3.48 billion exiting in November 2025 and $1.09 billion in December, but January 2026 showed a slowdown with outflows reduced to $278 million [6][7] - If ETF flows turn positive in February, it could reinforce market stability and improve the probability of upside [7] Technical Analysis - Bitcoin is trading within an ascending broadening wedge, recently rebounding from the lower boundary, currently priced near $88,321 [8] - Bulls need to clear $89,241 and reclaim the psychological $90,000 level to confirm strengthening momentum [8]

Core Viewpoint - Despite significant accumulation by Bitcoin ETFs and DATs, Bitcoin's price has not attracted the same level of retail participation as in previous cycles [1] Short-Term Outlook - Bitcoin is likely to face challenges in recovery due to declining stablecoin reserves, with capital outflows reaching nearly $1.9 billion in just 30 days [2] - Major exchanges, particularly Binance, show a significant drop in ERC-20 stablecoin reserves, indicating that retail investors are exiting the market [3] - The lack of investor interest in immediate market exposure is evident as some investors withdraw their stablecoins instead of keeping them on exchanges [4] Medium-Term Outlook - On-chain capital inflows into Bitcoin are gradually weakening, with the realized cap stalling after approximately 2.5 years of growth [5] - The PnL Index Signal, which tracks profit and loss based on wallet cost basis, has been moving sideways since early 2025 and is trending downward, indicating increasing losses [6] - A sentiment recovery may take a few months according to industry analysis [6] Long-Term Outlook - Long-term perspectives remain optimistic, with analysts like Peter Brandt maintaining a bullish stance on Bitcoin [7] - Brandt notes that Bitcoin has experienced five logarithmic parabolic advances over the past 15 years, with declines of at least 80% following each cycle, suggesting the current cycle is not yet over [7] - While no specific timing for a potential bottom was provided, Brandt projects that the next bull market peak could occur in September 2029 [8]

Core Insights - Bitcoin ETFs currently hold over 1.3 million coins, which accounts for approximately 6% of all mined Bitcoin [1] Group 1 - The total amount of Bitcoin held by ETFs has reached more than 1.3 million coins [1] - This holding represents around 6% of the total Bitcoin that has been mined to date [1]

Market Prediction - Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by Q1 2026 [1]

Market Prediction - DuelbitsPredict 新市场预测：比特币在 2025 年 12 月 19 日前有 61% 的概率重回 9 万美元 [1] Cryptocurrency - 市场关注比特币价格预测，目标价位为 9 万美元 [1]

Macroeconomic Trends - The Fed is expanding its balance sheet, indicating a return to Quantitative Easing (QE) [1] Alternative Investments - Discussion around Bitcoin potentially reaching $150,000 [1] Financial Products - Introduction of the Trump Gold Card [1]