I know people have been DMing me about Ro Pal and talking about the business cycle and how he's explained that now we are in a fiveyear cycle instead of a four-year cycle. So just Jerry just to get your opinion. ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Asia Pacific Economics - **Key Focus**: Discussions with US investors regarding the economic outlook for Asia, particularly China, India, and Japan Core Insights 1. **Business Cycle Outlook for Asia**: - Investors are generally optimistic about growth, particularly equity investors compared to fixed income investors who anticipate a modest slowdown. - There is a strong IT capital expenditure in the US, which is expected to support Asia's exports [6][5][5] 2. **China's Macro vs. Market Divergence**: - Investors recognize the weakness in China's macroeconomic landscape but expect markets to diverge from macro trends. - The anti-involution policy is seen as insufficient to address deflationary pressures [22][22][5] 3. **India's Domestic Demand Recovery**: - Investor sentiment is bearish on India due to recent deceleration in corporate revenue and profit growth. - However, a recovery is anticipated from Q4 2025 driven by fiscal and monetary easing measures [26][27][28] 4. **Japan's Policy Rate Path**: - Most investors expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to hike rates sooner rather than later, contrary to the base case which does not foresee rate hikes even in 2026. - The current inflation dynamics are largely influenced by supply factors rather than demand [29][30][32] Additional Important Insights 1. **Impact of Tariffs**: - The weighted average tariff on imports from Asia has risen to 25%, significantly impacting growth expectations. - The US-Korea trade deal remains unresolved, with auto tariffs still at 27.5% [7][5][5] 2. **Korea's Trade Cycle**: - Recent data indicates a slowdown in Korea's exports, with daily exports contracting by 10.6% after adjusting for working days, highlighting broad-based weakness [8][8][8] 3. **Rate Cuts in Asia**: - More rate cuts are expected across Asian economies, particularly in India, Korea, Indonesia, and Taiwan, as growth and inflation pressures persist [16][19][19] 4. **China's Deflationary Pressures**: - For a sustainable exit from deflation, significant shifts in the growth model are necessary, including reducing excess capacity and boosting domestic consumption [23][24][24] 5. **Investor Focus on Micro Themes**: - Investors are increasingly interested in micro themes such as emerging frontiers and sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies, rather than macroeconomic recovery [25][25][25] 6. **US-India Trade Relations**: - Ongoing trade tensions pose risks to India's growth outlook, particularly concerning services exports which constitute a significant portion of GDP [28][28][28] 7. **Japan's Corporate Profit Outlook**: - The slowdown in global trade is expected to adversely affect corporate profits, especially in the manufacturing sector [34][34][34] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape in Asia and the sentiments of investors regarding future growth and risks.

Market Sentiment and Analysis - The crypto market is currently experiencing uncertainty, with concerns about a potential alt season, market topping, or the start of a bear market [1][2][3] - The market is showing signs of capitulation, with fear levels approaching extreme levels, which historically can indicate a market bottom [6][7][8] - Many altcoins are in oversold territory, aligning with the high fear levels in the market [9][10] - XRP is showing relative strength compared to Ethereum, but could still see further price declines [3][4][10] - The market has been selling off for approximately 72 days, leading to time and price action capitulation [11][12] Cycle Analysis and Future Outlook - The analysis suggests the four-year crypto cycle may be extending to a five-year cycle, with a potential peak in early 2026 [13][19][20] - This aligns with the liquidity cycle, which is expected to peak around the first quarter of 2026 [16][17][29] - The market has changed significantly with institutional adoption, regulations, and the potential for altcoin ETFs [30][31][39] - Despite these changes, a bear market is still anticipated, likely marking the last typical cycle before utility becomes the primary driver [36] - The Federal Reserve's expected rate cuts and increasing adoption are expected to drive further market expansion [35][38]

Here's possibly the real reason Bitcoin is crashing. Global macro investor Raul Pal explains why the 4-year cycle is now the 5-year cycle and Bitcoin should now peak in 2026. Why is Bitcoin not wildly off to the races yet.This is a dtrended Bitcoin and it's basically the ISM which is the business cycle. Why do we have an elongated business cycle that looks like virtually no other real other time. It's because in 202122 they actually extended the maturity of the debt from four years to 5 years.So that extens ...

whether the four-year cycle is actually going to be extended or not. Raul Paul, global macro investor. He has come out and said he doesn't think that the four-year cycle will last any longer.He thinks it's now a 5year cycle. Take a listen to his logic. >> Why is Bitcoin sort of not wildly off to the races yet, and it's this chart, which is the business cycle.Remember, we've always said it's the business cycle stupid. It is always the business cycle stupid. And all of these people who claim it's the four-ear ...

Why is Bitcoin sort of not wildly off to the races yet. >> The crypto market is getting ridiculous. You see, while the Bitcoin price dipped today, bringing the entire crypto market along with it, this dip is nothing new.Bitcoin continues to trade in its range. And much like we've seen over and over again, the bottom ranges of the support are great buying opportunities. Five steps forward, two to three steps back.And I have breaking news involving altcoins that could affect you. Watch today's whole video. Bu ...

Group 1 - The outlook for equities and risk assets is assessed through the lens of US and global business cycles, corporate earnings, monetary policy, liquidity, and positioning [1] - The investment research approach focuses on leveraging the business cycle and incorporates macro, fundamentals, technicals, sentiment, and market structure [2]

RT Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien)Wanted to share a few thoughts tonight...This is from the September 11th MIT publication that dropped on @RealVision:For starters, unemployment keeps grinding higher, exactly as our lead indicators and GMI/MIT work flagged back in Q1.That keeps the Fed engaged and is why, as I noted in last week’s video update, the market has started pricing in a higher probability of cuts at the September, October, and December meetings...US unemployment is now at 4.3%, right on the Fed ...

RT Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien)It’s been five days since the August jobs report dropped, and I’ve gone through at least 20 takes. The narratives are all over the place, making it hard to separate signal from noise.Here’s what actually matters:Unemployment keeps grinding higher, exactly as our lead indicators and GMI/MIT work flagged back in Q1. That keeps the Fed engaged.At the same time, the earliest signs of a cyclical recovery in employment are already showing up in the data.Our GMI Early Workforce ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on global economic activity indicators, specifically the Current Activity Indicators (CAIs) developed by Goldman Sachs to assess underlying economic growth trends. Core Insights and Arguments - **GDP Limitations**: GDP is a commonly used measure of economic output but has excessive volatility, is released quarterly, and can be heavily revised, making it less reliable for real-time economic assessment [2][5][6]. - **CAI Advantages**: CAIs provide a more timely and less volatile growth signal compared to GDP, as they are based on a broader set of monthly activity and survey data [3][5][6]. - **Technical Updates**: Three technical changes were made to the CAIs: 1. Discontinued inputs were replaced with substitutes, and weights were re-estimated for affected economies [5][6]. 2. The exclusion period for pandemic-affected months was harmonized across economies to ensure consistency [7]. 3. Estimates of the relationship between business surveys and GDP were updated to capture nonlinearities more accurately [8]. - **Impact of Changes**: Most economies experienced only modest revisions to their CAIs, with some showing improved correlation with historical GDP data, indicating a modest improvement in tracking economic activity [9][14][17]. Additional Important Content - **Geographical Focus**: The updates affected various economies, including both developed markets (DM) and emerging markets (EM), with specific mentions of Australia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Poland, Romania, and South Korea [14]. - **Data Availability**: CAIs are available monthly, providing a more immediate growth signal compared to the quarterly release of GDP [6]. - **Correlation Improvements**: The revisions generally led to an increase in the correlation between updated CAIs and quarterly GDP, enhancing the accuracy of economic activity tracking [14][17]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and updates regarding the CAIs and their relevance in assessing global economic activity, highlighting the advantages over traditional GDP measures and the implications of recent methodological changes.