Core Viewpoint - The recent snap election victory of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is expected to facilitate long-awaited crypto tax reforms in Japan, with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's leadership seen as a pivotal factor in this process [1]. Group 1: Election and Leadership - Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called the snap election in January, leveraging her high pre-election approval ratings, and promised to resign if her party did not secure a decisive majority [1]. - The LDP achieved a supermajority of two-thirds in the lower house, which strengthens Takaichi's position to implement reforms [1]. Group 2: Crypto Industry Insights - A Japanese crypto trader noted that Takaichi's stance on crypto is neutral, neither particularly pro- nor anti-crypto, which may lead to continued reforms in Japan's restrictive crypto laws [2]. - The Japanese cryptocurrency industry is currently focused on tax reform and the reclassification of Bitcoin and leading altcoins as financial investment products rather than payment forms [3]. Group 3: Tax Reform Plans - The tax reform plan includes a flat 20% capital gains tax on crypto profits starting in 2028 and allows investors to carry losses over to the next financial year [4]. - Currently, higher earners can pay up to 55% of their crypto earnings in taxes, as profits must be declared annually [5]. Group 4: Continuation of Reform Policies - Takaichi, despite her conservative background, has allowed ongoing reform efforts by established taskforces and has made positive statements regarding the crypto industry [6]. - Takaichi's Minister of Finance indicated that Japan's cryptocurrency and web 3 industries are at a critical juncture, suggesting a supportive environment for future developments [6].

Photographer: Camilo Freedman/Bloomberg Crypto venture capital funds are confronting an identity crisis. Plummeting digital-asset prices and a wave of market consolidations are exposing the fragility of an industry that boomed on speculation but has struggled to build sustainable, revenue-generating businesses. Most Read from Bloomberg Retail traders have continued to drift away from digital art and memecoins, while token prices have crashed — a casualty of the rug pulls and day-trader blowups that f ...

Core Insights - Founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) has characterized the criticism against him and Binance as targeted and coordinated attacks, particularly on social media platforms like X [1][2] - CZ defended his "hold and wait" strategy amidst backlash, suggesting that the criticism stems from organized FUD campaigns rather than individual investor decisions [2][6] Group 1: Criticism and Defense - CZ addressed the backlash on January 28, labeling it a "coordinated attack" and questioning why he is blamed for investors' decisions [2] - He emphasized personal responsibility, urging investors to conduct their own research and make independent decisions [3] - Critics argue that CZ's guidance has led to significant losses for investors, particularly for tokens listed on Binance that often decline after initial hype [3][6] Group 2: Market Impact and Investor Sentiment - The recent criticism reflects broader frustrations with Binance, particularly following the October 10-11, 2025, crypto market crash, which saw altcoins' market capitalization drop by up to 54% and triggered $20-100 billion in liquidations [5] - Users reported issues such as platform glitches and delayed trades during the crash, exacerbating investor losses [5] - Accusations of insider manipulation have surfaced, with claims that compromised market maker accounts contributed to artificial price movements in certain tokens [6]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin's price has decreased nearly 5% this week, dropping below $91,000, as geopolitical tensions and the "Sell America" trade emerge, leading analysts to predict a potential decline to $75,000 or lower [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The overall cryptocurrency market, valued at $3.2 trillion, has seen a 2.2% drop, indicating a broader market selloff [1]. - The US dollar weakened, with the euro gaining 0.4% against it, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment towards cryptocurrencies as part of the "Sell America" trade [3]. - Gold reached a new high of $4,725 per ounce, reinforcing its status as a safe haven asset amid rising geopolitical tensions [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Rising tensions between the US and Europe, particularly regarding Greenland, could lead to increased market volatility, which is not currently reflected in spot prices [2]. - European leaders have condemned the US administration's actions, warning that tariffs could damage transatlantic relations and provoke retaliation [4]. Group 3: Trader Sentiment and Predictions - Derivatives data indicates traders expect Bitcoin's price to drop 17% to $75,000 by June, with a mildly bearish outlook prevailing [5]. - Despite the bearish sentiment, some analysts suggest that improving macroeconomic conditions could positively influence the cryptocurrency market [6]. - Bitcoin is viewed as a "safe-haven" asset due to its decentralized nature, acting as a hedge against market volatility [7].

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market's previous reliance on political figures, particularly Donald Trump, is diminishing, indicating a shift towards structural factors driving the market [1][2][4] - Institutional capital is becoming a significant and permanent force in the crypto markets, leading to a long-term asset class perspective rather than short-term trading based on political events [2][5] - The relationship between Bitcoin and altcoins is evolving, with Bitcoin being viewed as a reserve asset akin to gold, while altcoins are expected to demonstrate real utility in the productive economy [6] Industry Dynamics - The convergence of cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence is highlighted, with blockchain technology providing the necessary trust and sovereignty for autonomous systems [3][7] - Hong Kong is positioned as a key player in the intersection of global finance and emerging technology, particularly as the Consensus event returns to the city [3] - The recalibration of the crypto market is seen as a response to the realization that previous momentum was driven more by expectations than by fundamental value [4][5]

Group 1 - Bitcoin dominance is increasing as markets consolidate, leading to retail investors rotating out of altcoins and back into major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum [1][4] - The broader crypto market has seen losses, with Bitcoin dropping 1.12% below $87,000 and Ethereum falling 1.5% near $3,000, while the NFT sector experienced declines over 9% [2] - Liquidations surged to approximately $600 million on Monday, with an additional $400 million each day on Wednesday and Thursday, indicating rapid forced exits from leveraged positions [3] Group 2 - Aggregate buying pressure is returning to major assets, supported by institutional flow, while retail traders are moving back to Bitcoin and Ethereum [4] - The market is trading choppy with thin liquidity as discretionary desks wind down into year-end, leading to abrupt downside moves that are increasingly self-contained [5] - Bitcoin and Ethereum are acting as primary risk absorbers in a market struggling under supply pressure and limited risk appetite, with options markets pricing a wide range of outcomes due to elevated implied volatility [6]

Core Insights - The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% in Q3, surpassing expectations and indicating tighter monetary conditions may persist [2] - Core PCE inflation increased to 2.9%, remaining above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [2] - Real personal consumption expenditures rose by 3.5%, indicating strong consumer spending [3] Impact on Crypto Markets - Strong economic growth reduces the urgency for interest rate cuts, which could lead to higher rates being maintained for an extended period [4] - This environment historically pressures altcoins more than Bitcoin, affecting their performance negatively [4] - Bitcoin showed relative stability, trading near $87,800 with a market cap above $1.75 trillion, indicating limited panic selling [5] Market Dynamics - Higher interest rates increase returns on cash and bonds, making liquidity more selective [6] - Speculative assets, including altcoins, may struggle to attract new capital in this environment [6]

Asset Performance in 2025 - Silver demonstrates the highest annual growth at +128.47% [1] - Gold shows significant growth at +66.59% [1] - Copper experiences substantial growth at +35.45% [1] - Nasdaq sees positive growth at +19.70% [1] - Russell 2000 shows moderate growth at +12.53% [1] Cryptocurrency Performance in 2025 - $BTC experiences a decrease of -5.75% [1] - $ETH experiences a decrease of -11.58% [1] - Altcoins experience a significant decrease of -42.27% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts believe the altcoin bear market may be entering its final phase despite a 30% drop in market capitalization from this year's peak, indicating potential investment opportunities for patient investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Only about 3% of altcoins on Binance are trading above the 200-day moving average, marking a historical low, attributed to a lack of liquidity and defensive investor sentiment prioritizing capital preservation [3]. - The majority of altcoins are trading well below their long-term averages, reflecting widespread undervaluation driven by negative sentiment, with strong fundamentals in coins like XRP, TON, and ADA failing to translate into price recovery [4]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Historical comparisons suggest that weak market periods often create attractive opportunities for patient investors, with such phases potentially lasting longer if the market enters a prolonged bear phase [5]. - Fear and lack of interest from retail investors often signal the best price zones for large investors to accumulate, as retail participation tends to return with early signs of market recovery [6][7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Multiple technical indicators suggest that the altcoin bear market may be nearing its end, with current market capitalization levels acting as strong support, described as an "area to hold" by market analysts [8].

Core Viewpoint - The altcoin market is currently struggling, but there is potential for recovery driven by Federal Reserve monetary policy changes, particularly through the Reserve Management Purchases program, which could lead to increased demand for Bitcoin and altcoins [1][3][7]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The altcoin market has faced significant challenges, with a notable liquidation event on October 10 that resulted in the loss of over $19 billion [4]. - Retail traders have largely exited the market, contributing to the decline in altcoin performance, as they previously rotated profits from Bitcoin into altcoins [5]. - Hedge fund investors have been withdrawing capital due to poor returns in October, exacerbating the selling pressure on altcoins [3][4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's new Reserve Management Purchases program is expected to inject $40 billion a month into the economy, which could mimic quantitative easing and potentially drive Bitcoin prices to $200,000 by March [1][7]. - This increase in money supply is anticipated to create demand for leverage and synthetic dollars, which could aid in the recovery of the altcoin market [3][7]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to take advantage of the current market conditions by selectively investing in undervalued altcoins, as the market is expected to heal over time [2][3]. - The focus should be on understanding how exchanges operate and managing capital wisely during this recovery phase [2].