Economic Outlook - Consumers are increasingly concerned about a tightening job market, yet overall optimism about the economy's health remains intact, with many believing conditions will improve and the economy is on track for recovery [1] - Consumer confidence rose by 2.2 points in February to 91.2, surpassing analysts' expectations of 87, following a revised January figure of 89 [3] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.3% in January from 4.4% in December, supported by the addition of approximately 130,000 new jobs [5] Consumer Sentiment - The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 57.3 in February from 56.4 in January, marking the highest level since August 2025, indicating growing investor confidence that inflation will ease [5] - Short-term inflation expectations fell to a 13-month low of 3.5% in February from 4% in January, suggesting a belief that the worst effects of tariffs are behind the economy [6] Investment Opportunities - Large-cap growth funds such as Fidelity Contrafund, JPMorgan U.S. GARP Equity I, and T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth are identified as attractive investment options due to their strong performance and potential for future gains [2][7] - Fidelity Contrafund has a three-year return of 29.9% and a five-year return of 16.2%, with an annual expense ratio of 0.75% [10] - JPMorgan U.S. GARP Equity I fund has a three-year return of 27.5% and a five-year return of 16.7%, with an annual expense ratio of 0.59% [12] - T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth fund has a three-year return of 29.1% and a five-year return of 11.6%, with an annual expense ratio of 0.71% [14]

Lowe’s reported higher fourth-quarter sales as continued growth in its business supplying professional builders helped it to offset weakness in the home improvement market. - Getty Images Lowe’s is expecting a flat home-improvement market in 2026 as stalled housing sales, high interest rates and economic uncertainty continue to lead homeowners to delay remodeling and repair projects. “Our outlook for 2026 remains cautious given the persistent volatility in the housing macro,” said Chief Executive Marvin ...

Group 1: Consumer Confidence and Economic Indicators - Consumer confidence rose by 2.2 points to 91.2 in February, surpassing analysts' expectations of 87 [4][10] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.3% in January from 4.4% in December, with 130,000 new jobs added [6] - Short-term inflation expectations fell to a 13-month low of 3.5% in February from 4% in January, indicating a potential easing of inflation [7] Group 2: Recommended Consumer Discretionary Stocks - Rush Street Interactive, Inc. (RSI) has an expected earnings growth rate of 43.2% for the current year, with a Zacks Rank of 2 [8] - Crocs, Inc. (CROX) is projected to have a 5.7% earnings growth rate, also holding a Zacks Rank of 2 [11] - Callaway Golf Company (CALY) expects a significant earnings growth rate of 61.9%, with a Zacks Rank of 1 [12] - Dolby Laboratories, Inc. (DLB) anticipates a 1.7% earnings growth rate, currently rated as 2 [14] - MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. (MCFT) has an expected earnings growth rate of 64.1%, holding a Zacks Rank of 1 [15] Group 3: Earnings Estimate Revisions - The earnings estimates for RSI, CROX, CALY, DLB, and MCFT have all improved over the past 60 days, indicating positive market sentiment [3][10]

Core Insights - Economic concerns, particularly job losses and affordability, are significantly impacting home improvement retailers like Home Depot, which reported nearly flat comparable sales growth for the quarter and full fiscal year [1] Group 1: Consumer Sentiment and Spending - Continued consumer uncertainty is the primary reason customers are hesitant to invest in large home improvement projects, as highlighted by CEO Ted Decker [2] - High prices and low existing mortgage rates have kept homeowners from selling, while high borrowing costs and layoffs have dampened enthusiasm for financing renovations [3] Group 2: Market Outlook - Concerns over housing affordability and job losses are increasing, leading to a cautious approach for the upcoming spring season, which typically sees higher activity for Home Depot [4] - The company is not relying on tax stimulus for support, as it anticipates that funds may be used for debt repayment or savings rather than home improvement projects [5] Group 3: Financial Health and Stock Performance - Home Depot and its competitor Lowe's have managed the current uncertainty with discipline, resulting in an increase in stock prices following Home Depot's earnings report [5] - The CFO noted that even financially healthy households are showing reluctance to invest in renovations due to economic uncertainties [3]

Roundup | Asia CNY: Trend Tracker #1 Round Up 22 Feb 2026 19:55:39 ET Citi Asia Research AC +852-2501-2751 RoundUp China Economics - Solid CNY Spend Sets the Stage; NPC Policy Catalysts Next The Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday delivered a broadly firm demand signal, with upbeat retail sales, resilient mobility & travel and improved home sales. The slump in the box office is not a concern, given the lack of blockbuster releases. This better-than-expected household spending suggests a steady economic start. Wi ...

Group 1 - The company has observed an improvement in consumer confidence and sell-through trends in January compared to the previous quarter, indicating a recovery from a poor performance in Q4 [3] - Weather conditions have played a significant role in driving the replacement cycle, with extreme temperatures expected to influence sales positively [2] - The first quarter's performance heavily relies on March sales and order rates, which are crucial for the following months [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market, particularly the Dow Jones Industrial Average, has reached a significant milestone of 50,000, reflecting strong economic fundamentals and investor confidence [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Dow surged by approximately 1,200 points, indicating robust market activity [1]. - The S&P 500 also experienced a rise of nearly 2%, suggesting a broad-based market rally [2]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - Strong profits are driving stock performance, with future earnings estimates showing double-digit growth [3]. - Unit labor costs are slightly above 1%, indicating low inflation and supporting the current economic boom [3]. - A business investment boom, termed capital deepening, is enhancing productivity and real wages for the middle class [4]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Approximately 135 million Americans are invested in stocks through various accounts, highlighting widespread participation in the stock market [5]. - The introduction of "Trump accounts" aims to provide a $1,000 seed contribution for eligible American children, fostering early investment in the stock market [7]. Group 4: Consumer Confidence and Fiscal Outlook - The stock market rally is partly attributed to a third consecutive increase in consumer confidence, reaching a six-month high [8]. - A significant reduction in the federal budget deficit outlook is projected, with estimates suggesting a near $12 trillion reduction over the next decade [9].

Economic Overview - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has dropped to 84.5 in January, a decline of 9.7 points from the previous month, marking a 12-year low [5] - The percentage of consumers who believe jobs are "plentiful" has decreased to 23.9%, the lowest since February 2021, while 20.8% of respondents find jobs "hard to find," the highest since February 2021 [6] - The labor market has been struggling, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.4% in December, indicating potential further increases in January due to low consumer confidence [7] - The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged amid high inflation, leading to uncertainty regarding its near-term monetary policy [8] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on low-beta, defensive stocks from the utility, healthcare, and consumer staples sectors to mitigate market volatility [3][4] - Recommended stocks include Ameren Corporation (AEE), Fortis, Inc. (FTS), Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH), and J&J Snack Foods Corp. (JJSF), all of which have a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) [3][10] Company Profiles - **Ameren Corporation (AEE)**: A utility company serving nearly 2.4 million electric and over 900,000 natural gas customers, with an expected earnings growth rate of 8.2% for the current year and a dividend yield of 2.75% [9][11] - **Fortis, Inc. (FTS)**: Engaged in electric and gas utility business, with an expected earnings growth rate of 5.4% for the current year and a dividend yield of 3.42% [12][13] - **Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH)**: A major healthcare services provider serving nearly 90% of U.S. hospitals, with an expected earnings growth rate of 21.5% for the current year and a dividend yield of 0.95% [14][15] - **J&J Snack Foods Corp. (JJSF)**: Manufacturer and distributor of branded snack foods, with an expected earnings growth rate of 4.5% for the current year and a dividend yield of 3.37% [16][17]

Core Insights - U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since 2014, dropping 9.7 points to 84.5 in January, below pandemic-era lows [1][2] Group 1: Consumer Confidence Index - The January reading of 84.5 is the lowest since May 2014, when the index was at 82.2, and it has fallen below the worst levels recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic [2] - All five components of the consumer confidence index deteriorated, indicating a broad decline in consumer sentiment [3][8] Group 2: Present Situation and Expectations - The present situation index decreased by 9.9 points to 113.7, reflecting worsened perceptions of current business and labor market conditions [5] - The expectations index fell by 9.5 points to 65.1, significantly below the 80 threshold that typically signals an impending recession [5][6] Group 3: Demographic Insights - The decline in consumer confidence was widespread across political affiliations, with the sharpest drop observed among Independents [8] - Confidence levels varied by age and income, with consumers under 35 showing more optimism compared to older groups, while those earning less than $15,000 remained the least optimistic [9] Group 4: Financial Outlook - Consumers' views on their current financial situation improved slightly in January, but expectations for future financial conditions declined [12] - The proportion of consumers believing a recession is "very likely" in the next year increased, while those who think a recession is "not likely" decreased [13][14]

Core Insights - The K-shaped economy is becoming evident in consumer spending patterns, with a clear divide between higher- and lower-income consumers as the economy heads into 2026 [1][2] Consumer Spending Trends - Higher-income consumers are performing well, with strong spending on real assets and homes, while lower-income cohorts are struggling due to persistent inflation [2] - Retail sales in the U.S. appear resilient, but the strength is narrow, with consumers being selective and prioritizing brand loyalty and perceived value in discretionary purchases [2] ETF Performance and Strategy - Value-oriented retailers are benefiting from this selectivity, with ETFs focused on companies like Walmart, Costco, and off-price chains showing strong performance driven by a few value leaders [3] - Consumer staples ETFs are gaining traction as lower-income households reduce spending, indicating a shift towards defensive market segments [4] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence remains low despite equity markets nearing record highs, creating a disconnect that is unusual in the current economic climate [5] Investment Strategies - ETF investors are advised to adopt active strategies that focus on companies catering to value-conscious shoppers and benefiting from productivity gains through AI, while avoiding broad exposure to vulnerable segments [6] - Employment security is a critical factor influencing consumer spending behavior, with job security leading to increased spending and insecurity prompting more selective purchasing [7]