When people fear losing their jobs while struggling to pay everyday bills, they probably don't replace their couch unless they truly have to. In some cases, furniture is a need, but even then, an old sofa or somewhat used kitchen table can be scrounged on Facebook Marketplace or found at a yard sale. "Furniture shipments decreased by 6% between August 2024 and August 2025, while backlogs remained flat. Furniture stockpiles, however, increased by 3% from August to August, a possible indication that retai ...

Holiday travel in the United States is poised to shatter records once again, fueled by falling gas prices and a renewed sense of consumer confidence that is driving heavy traffic across the nation's highways.New Records Every Year Since The PandemicOn Thursday, Gene Boehm, the President and CEO of AAA Inc., the popular roadside assistance service, said the steady rise in travel since the pandemic shows no sign of slowing. “We're seeing records every year coming out of the pandemic,” Bowen said, during his a ...

Core Insights - Holiday shoppers are willing to spend but are seeking value, leading to increased traffic and sales at Tanger's outlet centers [1][2] - Retailers are responding to consumer demand by offering promotions, resulting in full parking lots and steady activity during the holiday season [2] - Mastercard reported a 3.9% year-over-year increase in retail sales for November and December, while Visa noted a 4.2% increase in holiday retail spending [3] Retail Performance - Simon Property Group reported a 6.4% year-over-year increase in traffic at its malls and premium outlets during the Black Friday weekend, with many brands experiencing double-digit sales increases [4] - The overall retail environment is thriving, despite a decline in consumer confidence [4] Consumer Confidence - The Conference Board reported a 3.8-point drop in consumer confidence in December, marking the fifth consecutive decline, affecting various demographics [5] - Factors influencing consumer sentiment include prices, inflation, tariffs, and personal finance issues [6]

Let's get the bond report. Rick Santelli has more on how the markets are reacting to all of these crossurrens. Rick, what can you tell us.>> Well, you know, I like the way the charts tell a picture. If you look at twos and tens when the number was released, a couple things should jump out at you. The twos definitely seem to be more aggressive in holding the upside.I don't think that's for any big reasons to explain the Fed or uh acknowledge percentages and probabilities. I think it's purely the next chart w ...

Bond Market Analysis - Two-year Treasury yields show more aggressive upside holding after data release [1] - Ten-year Treasury yield faces resistance around 419 to 420, a level dating back nearly two weeks [2] - A settlement above 419 on the ten-year yield would represent a three and a half month high [2] Economic Indicators - Dollar Index initially rose upon data release at 8:30 but the general picture remains unchanged [3] - A close below 9814 on the Dollar Index would mark a two and a half month low [3] - The speaker expresses skepticism about reaching a 2% inflation rate [3] - Conflicting inflation reports exist, with some indicating hot inflation and others indicating cool inflation [4] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence data is dismissed due to perceived media and administration influence [5]

So that's Tim Orbanowitz. He is the chief investment strategist at Innovator Capital Management. Tim, I've got to imagine, listen, that's Apollo.They've got their own thing. But it can't be a bad idea for your clients to have a little cash. What do they call it.Dry powder. Kelly said when things go down, they can buy them or should they be 100% invested right now. >> Well, Brian, you always want to be focused on managing risk.That that is front and center no matter what we're doing, especially when we we we ...

Core Viewpoint - Lowe's shares have underperformed compared to the S&P 500 in 2025, raising questions about potential recovery in 2026 [3][4]. Group 1: 2025 Performance - Lowe's share price decreased by 0.1% through December 15, 2025, while the S&P 500 appreciated by 15.6% [3]. - Including dividends, Lowe's total return was 2.8%, significantly lower than the S&P 500's total return of 17.3% [3]. - The company's market capitalization stands at $135 billion, with a current share price of $240.44 [4]. Group 2: Sales and Financial Metrics - Lowe's reported positive same-store sales over recent quarters, but fiscal third-quarter comps only increased by 0.4% [5]. - The increase in comps was driven by higher spending, with the average ticket contributing 3.4 percentage points, while traffic decline accounted for a 3 percentage point drop in comps [5]. - The gross margin for Lowe's is 31.42%, and the dividend yield is 1.95% [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Factors Influencing 2026 - Lowe's sales are closely tied to the overall economy, as consumers are more likely to undertake home improvement projects when they feel economically secure [6]. - Key economic indicators to monitor include new and existing home sales, as these typically lead to increased remodeling projects [7]. - Interest rates, particularly long-term Treasury yields and short-term rates set by the Federal Reserve, will impact mortgage rates and home equity loans, affecting homebuying and renovation financing [8]. Group 4: Employment and Consumer Confidence - Employment trends show signs of weakness, which could deter consumer spending at Lowe's for significant projects [9]. - Consumer confidence is crucial; higher confidence levels typically lead to increased spending, which can boost economic growth [9]. Group 5: Strategic Initiatives - Lowe's is focusing on the professional contractor market, having made significant acquisitions, including Foundation Building Materials for $8.8 billion and Artisan Design Group for $1.3 billion [10]. - Management's commentary on progress in the professional contractor segment and sales growth in this market will be important to monitor [10].

Core Insights - Quanex Building Products demonstrated resilience in a challenging economic environment, with shares rising significantly after reporting better-than-expected profits for the fiscal fourth quarter [1][4]. Financial Performance - Quanex's sales for the quarter ended October 31 were $489.8 million, reflecting a decline of less than 1% year over year [3]. - Adjusted earnings per share increased by 1% to $0.83, surpassing Wall Street's expectations of $0.51 [4]. - The company generated $66.6 million in free cash flow, a significant improvement from negative $8.2 million in the same quarter the previous year [5]. - For the 12 months ending October 31, free cash flow nearly doubled to $102.3 million [5]. Market Conditions - CEO George Wilson highlighted various challenges impacting consumer confidence, including inflation, political instability, high interest rates, and geopolitical tensions [3]. - Despite these challenges, the company remains optimistic about future demand as macroeconomic uncertainty decreases [8]. Strategic Initiatives - Quanex plans to utilize excess cash for share buybacks and has repaid $75 million in bank debt [6][7]. - The company is not providing official guidance for fiscal 2026 but anticipates flat revenue and adjusted earnings compared to fiscal 2025 [7].

Economy & Inflation - The US economy is viewed with skepticism by a majority of Americans, with concerns about its potential decline [1] - Inflation remains a persistent issue, exceeding the Federal Reserve's targets, while fiscal deficits are unusually high for this stage of the business cycle [3] - Some believe current policies, including government spending and tariffs, may exacerbate inflation and affordability challenges [5] - Affordability is emerging as a significant concern for Americans [6] - Real wages are not keeping pace with inflation, impacting the living standards of average workers [8][10] Public Sentiment & Presidential Approval - A significant portion of Americans feel financially worse off compared to the previous year [13][14] - Consumer confidence is near its lowest levels, comparable to periods of recession and financial crisis [15] - The President's economic policies have faced criticism for increasing affordability problems, leading to public dissatisfaction [17][18] Political Implications - The economic climate could impact upcoming elections, potentially affecting the success of candidates [18][19] - Key congressional races are being targeted by political committees, with the economy playing a crucial role [20] - The outcome of future elections will depend on the effectiveness of candidates in addressing economic concerns [22][23] Economic Assessment - An economics professor assesses the economy with a "B" grade based on unemployment, inflation, and the budget deficit [2] - Public sentiment towards the economy is significantly more negative, with many rating it a "D" due to personal financial struggles [9][15]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 is close to its all-time high, with traders awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, expected to be a cut of 0.25% at the upcoming FOMC meeting [1][2][3] Market Sentiment - Asian markets showed positive movement, while European markets remained flat; the VIX index has decreased by 10.33% over the past five sessions, indicating reduced volatility [2] - The market is expected to react significantly to Chair Powell's statements post-FOMC meeting, particularly regarding the labor market and inflation concerns [3][4] Federal Reserve Insights - The anticipated interest rate cut would mark the sixth reduction since September 2024, with a current expectation of rates dropping to 3.5% [2][4] - There is an expectation of dissent among Fed officials during the meeting, which could indicate differing views on monetary policy [4] Consumer Confidence - Declining consumer confidence is influencing the Fed's decision-making, with consumers expressing concerns over economic conditions and labor market health [4] - Recent reports suggest that U.S. consumers are showing signs of reduced resilience, with expectations for a weak Q4 based on income and spending data [5] Market Snapshot - S&P 500 futures were flat, closing the last session up by 0.19%; other global indices showed mixed results, with Japan's Nikkei 225 up by 0.18% and China's CSI 300 up by 0.81% [5][6]