Will the CLARITY Act have a big impact on Bitcoin's price? | Source: Gemini Key Takeaways The CLARITY Act passing could drive a market surge for Bitcoin and crypto, according to Bitwise’s Matt Hougan. Hougan argues that Bitcoin’s cyclical patterns are less relevant in 2026. The CLARITY Act aims to define which digital assets fall under the SEC or CFTC. Industry leaders are increasingly focusing on the potential market impact of the upcoming CLARITY Act. Some suggest it could end the long-running ...

The prevailing issue for cryptocurrencies is that there aren't any major catalysts for the new year. Bitcoin, which accounts for 59% of the total digital currency market value, is well beyond its halving event. Furthermore, President Donald Trump's election and the passage of the Genius Act are in the rearview mirror.Significant downdrafts in the crypto market have been occurring every four years, with prior drops in 2018 and 2022 leading to peak-to-trough drops of approximately 80% and 70%, respectively. A ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin (BTC) is likely entering a prolonged downturn, which may lead to a more stable, institutionally driven phase in the crypto industry [1] - The market is in the early phase of a crypto winter, with Bitcoin approximately 85 days past its peak, and prices may remain under pressure for months, potentially testing an average breakeven price near $75,000 [2] - Unlike previous downturns, this phase may not be characterized by mass liquidations or structural failures, as institutional participants are now shaping the market [3] Tokenization and Market Trends - The value of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) has tripled to $18.5 billion over the year, with projections suggesting it could exceed $50 billion by 2026 as more financial institutions engage in onchain settlement [4] - Decentralized exchanges (DEXs) are gaining market share from centralized venues, and while trading volumes may decline in 2026, DEXs, particularly those trading perpetual futures, are expected to continue growing [5] Regulatory Developments - The passage of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY) in the U.S. marks a significant turning point, defining digital assets as securities or commodities and assigning oversight of spot crypto markets to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) [6] - This legal framework could reduce headline risk and facilitate greater engagement from banks and asset managers in crypto markets, while also enhancing the legitimacy of decentralized protocols by providing compliance pathways [7] Emerging Trends - Onchain prediction markets, particularly in sports betting, have seen volumes exceed $5.9 billion, representing over 50% of DraftKings' handle in Q3, with companies like Robinhood, Coinbase, and Gemini entering the space [8]

Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. bolstered its cash reserve to $2.19 billion and paused purchases of Bitcoin over the past week as the largest digital asset treasury company appears to be settling in for a long crypto winter. The Tysons Corner, Virginia-based firm raised $748 million through the sale of common shares in the seven days ended Dec. 21, according to a filing Monday with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. It had purchased about $2 billion in Bitcoin over the previous two weeks, bringing ...

Welcome to Morning Brief presented by Robin Hood, the home [music] to commission free trading. I'm Julie Hyman. Let's get to the three things you need to know today.First up, US stock futures edging higher to kick off the holiday shortened trading week. Investors still hoping for [music] a Santa Claus rally to close out the last five trading days of the year. Plus, gold and silver [music] are climbing to new highs.rate cut bets fueling the surge, capping off a banner year with gold and [music] silver on tra ...

Daily spot trading volumes have roughly doubled versus the last cycle. Bitcoin now averages $8–22 billion per day, up from $4–13 billion previously. Futures open interest sits at a record high of $68 billion, with about 30% on CME. That shows major institutional players are active. Historic inflows, record invested capital, rising volumes, and falling volatility all point to a mid-cycle reset for the Bitcoin price.Market data shows Bitcoin's unusual strength. One-year realized volatility has almost halved, ...

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered has significantly reduced its multi-year price targets for Bitcoin, forecasting it will reach $100,000 by the end of 2025, down from a previous target of $200,000, while maintaining a long-term outlook of $500,000 but extending the timeline to 2030 [1] Price Performance - Bitcoin is currently trading at $90,600, down 1.3% over the past 24 hours, indicating a lack of upward momentum [2] Demand Expectations - The downgrade in Bitcoin's price outlook is attributed to a recalibration of demand expectations, with the end of a major demand source and slower-than-expected institutional adoption via exchange-traded funds (ETFs) being key factors [3] Market Dynamics - Future Bitcoin price increases are expected to be driven primarily by ETF buying, as aggressive corporate buying has diminished. Current quarterly inflows of 50,000 BTC are the lowest since the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, compared to 450,000 BTC purchased per quarter in late 2024 [4] Economic Influences - Political pressure on the Federal Reserve is impacting risk-on asset classes, with investors anticipating a quarter-point rate cut in the upcoming interest rate decision, which is contingent on the Fed Chairman's guidance for the following year [5] Monetary Policy Outlook - The potential appointment of Kevin Hassett to the FOMC could lead to easier monetary policy, encouraging investment in "hard" assets like Bitcoin as a hedge. A majority of users on prediction market Myriad expect Hassett to be nominated as Fed chair before March 2026 [6] Near-Term Outlook - Bitcoin's near-term outlook is heavily dependent on the outcome of the upcoming FOMC meeting, with analysts indicating that the cryptocurrency has retested the $90,000 level multiple times in recent weeks [7]

Core Viewpoint - Cantor Fitzgerald analysts have significantly reduced their price target for Strategy shares while maintaining an "Overweight" rating, reflecting a positive long-term outlook despite recent declines in share value and Bitcoin prices [1][2]. Group 1: Price Target and Valuation - The new 12-month price target for Strategy's stock is set at $229, which is approximately 59% lower than the previous estimate of $560 [2]. - Analysts have adjusted the valuation of Strategy's treasury operations, decreasing it from $364 per share to $74 per share [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Company Performance - Strategy's shares have dropped over 50% in the past six months, with the stock price falling to $178 recently [2][4]. - Bitcoin's price has decreased nearly 30% from a high of over $126,000 in early October, dropping below $90,000 [4]. Group 3: Financial Strategy and Risks - Analysts expect Strategy to raise $7.8 billion from capital markets over the next year, down from a previous expectation of $22.5 billion [3]. - The company has established a $1.44 billion cash reserve to cover dividend payments for nearly two years, and its convertible debt of $8.2 billion does not mature until 2028 [5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - There are concerns about a potential "crypto winter," but analysts believe that fears regarding Strategy are exaggerated [4]. - Despite the recent drop in Bitcoin prices, analysts do not foresee an end to Strategy's Bitcoin-buying activities, although the company has acknowledged the possibility of selling under certain conditions [6]. Group 5: MSCI Indices and Market Impact - Analysts noted that the potential removal of Strategy from MSCI's indices could lead to $2.8 billion in outflows, which is a concern that is somewhat warranted [7]. - Historically, Strategy has increased its Bitcoin holdings by issuing common stock, but this method has become less effective as its market cap has fallen below the value of its crypto holdings [7].

Market Sentiment - The crypto market is experiencing a sentiment reset, with Bitcoin (BTC) gaining 1.6% to trade above $93,000, while Ether (ETH) shows signs of a bear-trap [1] - Several altcoins, including SUI, PUMP, ENA, LINK, and AAVE, have posted double-digit gains in the past 24 hours, reflecting increased interest in the broader market [2] - The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) and CoinDesk 80 (CD80) indexes have advanced by 6%-7% during the same period, indicating a bullish mood [2] Federal Reserve Influence - There is uncertainty regarding leadership at the Federal Reserve, with prediction markets favoring Kevin Hassett as a potential new chairman, which could lead to a more dovish FOMC panel [2] - A 25 basis-point interest-rate cut is anticipated for next week, with investment banks predicting additional cuts for the following year [3] - Despite the expected rate cuts, Treasury yields and the dollar remain stable, contributing to a sense of unease in the market [3] Price Levels and Market Confidence - Market confidence is expected to increase once Bitcoin surpasses $100,000, as noted by FxPro's chief market analyst [3] - The $98K-100K range is significant, containing key levels such as the 50-day average and early November support, which could influence buyer sentiment [4] - A consolidation above this range may suggest that a crypto winter is not imminent [4] Traditional Markets - Gold is struggling despite a recent bullish breakout, which is often seen before price corrections, potentially leading to a rotation of funds into Bitcoin [4]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant selloff, with Bitcoin dropping below $85,000 and a total market cap loss of $1 trillion over the past month. This situation raises concerns about a potential "crypto winter" [1][2]. Company Insights - Michael Sailor's Strategy, which holds approximately 3% of all Bitcoin, has established a cash reserve of $1.44 billion to mitigate risks associated with market volatility and to ensure they do not have to sell Bitcoin to cover dividends or debt interest [1][2]. - The CEO of Strategy indicated that they would sell Bitcoin if necessary, but the creation of the cash reserve suggests a strategy to avoid forced selling during downturns [2][3]. - The company recently purchased 130 Bitcoin tokens, indicating a continued investment strategy despite current market conditions [3]. Industry Trends - The cryptocurrency market is currently characterized by a "risk-off" sentiment, with investors pulling back amid uncertainty, including government shutdowns and fluctuating Federal Reserve policies [1]. - Ethereum, as a productive asset, is viewed favorably by some companies, with its fundamentals in DeFi and staking continuing to grow despite the market downturn [1]. - The market is experiencing thin liquidity and significant outflows, particularly in Bitcoin ETFs, which may indicate a struggle to find a bottom for Bitcoin prices [1].