Bitcoin (BTC-USD) sank 4% to hover under $65,000 on Monday after touching a three-week low overnight as the broader market sank over global trade uncertainty. The decline followed the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down President Trump’s tariffs. The president later announced a 10% blanket global tariff, which was subsequently raised to 15%, adding to investor unease. Bespoke Investment Group said in a research note that “investors are starting to question whether [bitcoin is] even an effective sto ...

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) sank 2% to hover near $66,000 on Monday after touching a three-week low overnight as the broader market sank over global trade uncertainty. The decline followed the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down President Trump’s tariffs. The president later announced a 10% blanket global tariff, which was subsequently raised to 15%, adding to investor unease. Bespoke Investment Group said in a research note that “investors are starting to question whether [bitcoin is] even an effective stor ...

Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, breaks down why we’re still in a crypto winter, the truth about central bank gold buying, and why Bitcoin’s revenue problem doesn’t matter… yet. We… ...

Core Insights - Tom Lee suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are nearing a bottom after a prolonged decline, indicating that the current crypto winter is "near the end" despite skepticism due to previous missed predictions [1][7] - Institutional investors are increasing their exposure to BitMine, with significant investments from BlackRock and Cathie Wood's Ark Invest in Ethereum [1] Group 1 - Lee indicates that the current market sentiment and weak price action imply that the crypto market is in its final phase of capitulation, with Bitcoin projected to fall to around $60,000 and Ethereum to approximately $1,890 [2] - Ethereum has reportedly reached its target and may need "one more undercut" before establishing a lasting low, with Lee predicting the downturn could conclude by April at the latest [3] - The crypto market has faced significant struggles since Q4, with Bitcoin and Ethereum down 45% and 60% from their all-time highs, respectively [4] Group 2 - Lee's previous bullish projections for Bitcoin and Ethereum have not materialized, leading to skepticism about his credibility, especially regarding his bottom call [5] - The surge in gold prices has created a "FOMO" effect, diverting capital away from digital assets, as gold's strength has become more pronounced [8]

The biggest move for Bitcoin is happening now. Yet, most people don't see it. Just like back in early 24, just like back in late 2022, just like back during the COVID crash of 2020 and then immediately after in 2021, even just like the 50% capitulation back in early 2019, Bitcoin is back at its cost of production. Even better, it's literally on the lower end of that range. See for yourself. Just like here, here, here, and here. This has only happened on the previous bare market bottoms of the market. Is thi ...

Core Insights - The recent decline in Bitcoin's value from approximately $125,000 to about $60,000 has significantly impacted Coinbase's financial performance, as the company holds 12% of the world's cryptocurrency [1] - Coinbase reported a loss of $666.7 million for the fourth quarter, translating to a loss of $2.49 per share, a stark contrast to a profit of $4.68 per share in the same quarter of 2024 [2] - The company's fourth-quarter revenue was $1.78 billion, down 21.6% year-over-year and below the projected $1.81 billion [3] Market Conditions - Coinbase's CFO noted softer market conditions but highlighted that the company is still experiencing growth, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of "native inflows" where users engage with the platform [4] - Despite the downturn, some market participants are "buying the dip," indicating ongoing interest in cryptocurrency investments [4] Future Projections - For the first quarter of 2026, Coinbase anticipates subscription and services revenue to range between $550 million and $630 million, reflecting the current lower average crypto price environment [5] - Analysts from KeyBanc Capital Markets expressed concerns about Coinbase's short-term performance due to unfavorable crypto market dynamics, despite potential upside from new product launches [6] Strategic Developments - Coinbase is focusing on expanding its product offerings and partnerships with traditional financial institutions to navigate the current market volatility [6]

Core Viewpoint - BlockFills, a Chicago-based crypto lender and liquidity provider, has temporarily halted client deposits and withdrawals due to notable volatility in the crypto market, with asset prices trending lower [1][3]. Company Summary - BlockFills operates as a cryptocurrency solutions firm and digital asset liquidity provider, serving approximately 2,000 institutional clients, including crypto-focused hedge funds and asset managers. In 2025, the firm handled $60 billion in trading volume [2]. - The suspension of deposits and withdrawals was implemented last week and remains in effect, aimed at protecting both clients and the firm amid recent market and financial conditions [3][4]. - Despite the suspension, clients can still trade on the platform, opening and closing positions in spot and derivatives markets [3]. Industry Context - Withdrawal freezes in the crypto industry often raise concerns, as seen during the last severe downturn in 2022 when several high-profile lenders halted withdrawals before filing for bankruptcy [5]. - A table detailing the withdrawal pauses and subsequent bankruptcy filings of various crypto firms illustrates the interconnectedness of these events, leading to market destabilization [6]. - Temporary suspensions can serve as defensive measures during intense market stress, and there is currently no evidence suggesting that BlockFills is insolvent. The suspension coincides with warnings of a renewed "crypto winter," as the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has declined by over 22% since the start of the year [7].

Core Viewpoint - Robinhood's stock fell over 12% after reporting fourth quarter revenue that missed expectations, despite achieving record annual revenue of $4.5 billion in 2025 [1][6]. Revenue Performance - Fourth quarter revenue was reported at $1.28 billion, falling short of the expected $1.35 billion [1]. - Crypto revenue for the fourth quarter was $221 million, below the estimated $248.2 million [2]. - Options revenue also missed expectations, coming in at $314 million versus the forecast of $331 million [2]. Market Reaction - Analysts noted that the top-line miss was detrimental, with one stating that the stock's reaction was justified given high expectations and its expensive valuation [2][3]. - The stock was down approximately 40% from its all-time high prior to the earnings report [5]. Analyst Sentiment - Despite the recent revenue miss, analysts remain optimistic about Robinhood's diversified business model, which includes app offerings and prediction markets, potentially mitigating the impact of a downturn in the crypto market [6]. - The stock has received 24 Buy recommendations, four Holds, and one Sell, indicating a generally positive outlook among analysts [6].

Core Insights - Robinhood's stock fell over 12% after reporting revenue that missed expectations, with fourth quarter revenue at $1.28 billion compared to the anticipated $1.35 billion [1][2] - The company achieved record annual revenue of $4.5 billion in 2025, but the fourth quarter results raised concerns among analysts [1][6] Revenue Performance - Crypto revenue for the fourth quarter was $221 million, falling short of the $248.2 million estimate [2] - Options revenue also missed expectations, reported at $314 million against an estimate of $331 million [2] Analyst Commentary - Analysts expressed concerns about the top-line miss, indicating it was not favorable for the company's outlook [2] - Christian Bolou from Autonomous Research noted that net deposit growth has decelerated, which could impact future performance [3] Market Sentiment - Despite the recent stock decline, analysts remain optimistic about Robinhood's diversified business model, which includes app offerings and prediction markets [6] - The stock has received 24 Buy recommendations, four Holds, and one Sell, indicating a generally positive outlook from analysts [6]

Core Insights - Robinhood's Q4 earnings report showed a miss on revenue expectations, with net revenue at $1.28 billion compared to the expected $1.35 billion, leading to an 8% drop in stock price after hours [1][2][5] - The company reported Q4 EPS of 66 cents, with transaction-based revenue at $776 million, below the anticipated $791.6 million [1][2] - Analysts remain bullish on Robinhood, with over 80% recommending it as a buy despite the recent stock decline [4] Financial Performance - Q4 crypto revenue was reported at $221 million, missing the consensus estimate of $248.2 million [2] - Options revenue for the quarter was $314 million, also below the expected $331.2 million [2] - Adjusted operating expenses for 2026 are forecasted to be between $2.66 billion and $2.73 billion [2] Market Context - The stock had previously seen a 50% increase over the past 12 months but was down approximately 40% from its all-time high last October [3][8] - The ongoing "crypto winter" raises concerns about its impact on trading volumes and overall financial performance [3][8] Business Outlook - Despite the current challenges, management's commentary suggests a constructive outlook for 2026, with strong transaction volumes reported in January [6][7] - The company is better positioned than in previous downturns due to diversification in its revenue streams, including net interest income and new product offerings [12][13] - The options trading business, which constitutes about 25% of revenue, is expected to see significant growth due to increased penetration and new product offerings [16][17] Competitive Landscape - Robinhood's distribution capabilities give it a competitive edge in the prediction markets space, despite increasing competition [19][21] - The company has announced a partnership that enhances its control over economics and product innovation, positioning it well for future growth [21][22]