Thank you, Colobby Smith with the New York Times. Um, today's decision was clearly very divided. It wasn't just the two official descents against the cut, but there were also soft descents from four uh others.And I'm just wondering if um this reluctance from several people to support recent reductions suggests that there is a much higher bar for cuts in the near term and and what exactly does the committee need to see um if things are well positioned right now um to support a January reduction. >> Sure. So ...

The Fed is poised to cut rates despite divisions on the economic outlook and could signal a slower path for easing in 2026. https://t.co/ulZ5LqrK23 ...

Some good breaking news from the New York Fed with inflation expectations unchanged and labor market indicators improving. Let's go through them. The one-year, the three-year, and the 5-year uh inflation expectations from the New York Fed survey all unchanged.32, three, and three. Now, these are all a bit elevated, but it's good news that they're not going up. Inflation expectations rise for food, gas, medical care, a big increase there, and rent as well.Now, there's fodder for both hawks and doves in these ...

Iron ore dropped on concerns about China’s economic outlook, as a gauge of the country’s manufacturing activity expanded less than expected https://t.co/xPc8gVAsDd ...

Inflation & Interest Rate - Headline inflation estimate is 31%, highest since February [1] - The market has largely priced in an interest rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting [2] - The key focus is whether tariffs are being passed on to higher goods prices, and what happens with services inflation [2][3] - There's a divide among Fed officials regarding concerns about the labor market versus the stickiness of inflation [5][6] - The Fed's guidance on future rates is expected to be limited due to a lack of comprehensive data [9] - A December rate cut is anticipated, especially if the government reopens and data becomes available [14][15] Economic Outlook - Workforce reductions are occurring across different parts of the economy [4] - AI investments are significantly powering the market, with the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker indicating almost 4% growth for the quarter [10] - The economy may be bifurcated, with growth driven by a few sectors and higher-income consumers, making it prone to shocks [11][12][13] - The labor market is expected to weaken, potentially driving more rate cuts into Q1 of the following year [15]

Economic Outlook - A significant 57% of U.S. consumers expect the economy to weaken in the coming year, marking the most negative outlook since Deloitte began tracking in 1997 [2] - This pessimism is reflected in holiday spending plans, with consumers intending to spend an average of $1,595, which is 10% less than the $1,778 planned last year [4] Consumer Behavior - 77% of surveyed individuals anticipate higher prices on holiday items, an increase from 69% last year, influenced by recent tariff hikes [3] - Younger consumers, particularly Gen Z, plan to spend 34% less this holiday season compared to the previous year, while Millennials expect to spend 13% less [5][6] Retail Impact - Retailers are advised to exercise caution as the findings suggest a potential decline in sales during the crucial holiday season [8] - Holiday spending across stores and online is projected to rise by 4% year over year, a decrease from the 10-year average growth of 5.2% [9] Value-Seeking Trends - A notable increase in value-seeking behaviors has been observed, with 70% of respondents engaging in multiple deal-seeking activities [12] - Consumers plan to cut back on non-gift holiday expenses by an average of 22%, while gift spending is expected to see a smaller reduction [13]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is creating uncertainty in the market, affecting investor sentiment and economic reporting [2][3]. Economic Reports - Key economic reports expected next week include Construction Spending and Wholesale Trade Sales on Monday, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and Redbook Index on Tuesday, MBA Mortgage Applications and Beige Book on Wednesday, and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index on Thursday [3]. Earnings Reports - Major companies set to report earnings next week include JPMorgan (JPM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS), BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Abbott Labs (ABT), American Express (AXP), and State Street (STT) [4]. - Specific earnings spotlight includes Fastenal (FAST) on Monday, October 13, and JPMorgan, J&J, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock on Tuesday, October 14 [5].

Core Insights - Americans are increasingly pessimistic about job prospects, as indicated by a recent survey [1] - Persistent inflation continues to frustrate consumers, leading to a lack of confidence in economic improvement [1] Group 1: Job Market Sentiment - The survey reveals a growing disillusionment among Americans regarding the availability of new jobs [1] - This sentiment reflects broader concerns about economic stability and growth [1] Group 2: Inflation Impact - Ongoing inflation is a significant source of frustration for consumers, impacting their overall economic outlook [1] - The combination of job market pessimism and inflation contributes to a general lack of confidence in the economy's future [1]

Meanwhile, as the government shutdown enters day two, uh, OM Director Russell Vote telling House Republicans the Trump administration will start firing federal employees in the next one to two days. Meanwhile, this is what the Treasury Secretary told the gang on SC squawk this morning about the state negotiations. We were left with a mess.It was the largest deficit uh when we weren't in a recession, weren't at war, and we are fixing the deficit. And um you know there could be a a discussion but this isn't t ...

Core Insights - The job market remains stagnant, with hiring in August at 5.1 million and a hiring rate of 3.2%, showing little change from July [3] - Unemployment increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3% in August, indicating a worsening situation for job seekers [3] - Consumer spending rose by 0.4% in August, maintaining the same pace as July, despite rising concerns about inflation and job availability [5] - The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has raised its forecast for third quarter economic growth to 3.9% from 3.3% [5] - Consumer confidence fell to a five-month low in September, driven by anxiety over inflation and the job market [7] Economic Indicators - The personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy, remained at a 2.9% annual rate [5] - The share of consumers reporting that jobs are plentiful decreased from 30.2% to 26.9%, while those finding jobs hard to get remained at 19.1% [7] - The assessment of business conditions by consumers has become less positive, with expectations for improvement declining [7] Consumer Sentiment - Households express feelings of being "stuck" in the economy, with rising concerns about inflation and job availability potentially impacting discretionary spending [4] - Despite concerns, households have not yet reduced their spending [4] - The ongoing assessment of job availability has reached a multiyear low, reflecting a significant decline in consumer sentiment regarding the job market [7]