March WTI crude oil (CLH26) on Friday closed down -0.04 (-0.06%), and March RBOB gasoline (RBH26) closed down -0.0093 (-0.46%). Crude oil and gasoline prices settled lower on Friday amid concerns about energy demand after the US Q4 GDP grew at a slower-than-expected pace.  However, losses in crude were limited due to a weaker dollar and geopolitical risks in the Middle East. More News from Barchart Friday's weaker-than-expected US economic news was bearish for energy demand and crude prices.  Q4 GDP ro ...

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices are rising, with crude reaching a 1.5-week high and gasoline a 2.75-month high, driven by escalating US-Iran tensions and geopolitical risks in the Middle East [2][3] - The US is considering seizing Iranian oil tankers and potentially deploying a second aircraft carrier strike group to the region if nuclear negotiations fail, which adds a risk premium to crude prices [2][3] - A stronger-than-expected US jobs report supports energy demand, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 130,000 and the unemployment rate falling to 4.3% [4] Geopolitical Factors - The escalation of geopolitical risks, particularly regarding Iran, is supporting crude oil prices, as any military action could disrupt Iran's crude production of 3.3 million barrels per day and affect the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit route [3] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to restrict Russian crude supplies, which is bullish for oil prices as peace talks show no signs of resolution [6] Supply Dynamics - An increase in Venezuelan crude exports, rising to 800,000 barrels per day in January from 498,000 in December, is contributing to global oil supply and is bearish for prices [5]

Group 1: Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices - March WTI crude oil closed down -0.40 (-0.62%) and March RBOB gasoline closed down -0.0263 (-1.32%) on Tuesday, reflecting a decline in prices due to stagnation in US retail sales [1] - The stagnation in December retail sales, which were unchanged m/m compared to an expected increase of +0.4% m/m, indicates weakness in consumer spending, negatively impacting economic growth and energy demand [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Concerns over escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East have added a risk premium to crude oil prices, with the US Department of Transportation advising American-flagged ships to avoid Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz [3] - Fears of potential military action by the US against Iran, should negotiations fail regarding Iran's nuclear program, could disrupt key shipping lanes and impact Iran's crude production of 3.3 million bpd, which is significant as Iran is OPEC's fourth-largest producer [3] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - An increase in Venezuelan crude exports, rising to 800,000 bpd in January from 498,000 bpd in December, is contributing to global oil supply and is bearish for prices [4] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, with no resolution in sight, is expected to maintain restrictions on Russian crude, which supports oil prices [5]

Group 1 - Crude oil and gasoline prices are under pressure due to concerns over energy demand following stagnant US retail sales in December, which were unchanged month-over-month, contrary to the expected increase of +0.4% [1][2] - The stagnation in retail sales may lead to a downward revision in Q4 GDP, further negatively impacting energy demand and crude prices [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are adding a risk premium to crude prices, with fears of military action potentially disrupting key shipping lanes and affecting Iran's crude production of 3.3 million barrels per day [3] Group 2 - An increase in Venezuelan crude exports, rising to 800,000 barrels per day in January from 498,000 barrels per day in December, is contributing to a boost in global oil supplies, which is bearish for prices [4] - Ongoing geopolitical issues, particularly the unresolved territorial disputes between Russia and Ukraine, are likely to maintain restrictions on Russian crude, which supports oil prices [5]

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Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices are rising, with gasoline reaching a 2.5-month high, driven by a decline in the dollar index and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2][3] Geopolitical Risks - The US has advised ships to avoid the Strait of Hormuz due to rising geopolitical risks, which has added a risk premium to crude oil prices [3] - Concerns over the potential failure of US-Iran negotiations regarding uranium enrichment could lead to military action, disrupting oil production and shipping lanes [3] Market Dynamics - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to a 6-month high, positively impacting energy demand and supporting crude prices [2] - An increase in Venezuelan crude exports, rising from 498,000 bpd in December to 800,000 bpd in January, is contributing to global oil supply and exerting bearish pressure on prices [4] Ongoing Conflicts - The unresolved territorial issues in the Russia-Ukraine conflict are likely to prolong restrictions on Russian crude, which supports higher oil prices [5]

Company Overview - The Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB) is a leading energy infrastructure provider in the U.S., specializing in interstate natural gas pipelines, gathering systems, processing plants, and storage facilities [1] - The company serves a diverse customer base, including producers and utilities, ensuring reliable transportation and midstream services for energy needs [2] - WMB has a market capitalization of $75.17 billion [2] Financial Performance - WMB is expected to report a profit of $0.57 per share for Q4 of fiscal 2025, representing a 21.3% year-over-year growth [4] - For the full fiscal year 2025, analysts anticipate a 10.4% annual growth in diluted EPS to $2.12, followed by a 9.4% increase to $2.32 in fiscal 2026 [4] - The company reported total revenues of $2.92 billion for Q3 of fiscal 2025, a 10.2% increase year-over-year, with adjusted EPS rising 14% to $0.49 [7] Stock Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, WMB's stock has gained 4%, and 5.3% over the past six months, underperforming the broader S&P 500 Index, which increased by 16.9% and 10.8% during the same periods [5] - Compared to its sector, WMB's stock has outperformed over the past year but underperformed over the last six months, with the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) increasing by 2.3% and 10.7% respectively [6] Market Context - Strong demand for natural gas infrastructure supports steady performance for WMB, benefiting from stable energy demand [5]

Group 1 - Crude oil and gasoline prices experienced a significant rally, with gasoline reaching a 1.5-week high and crude oil prices increasing by 3.16% on Thursday [2][1] - The rise in crude prices is attributed to better-than-expected US economic data indicating stronger energy demand and anticipated buying of oil contracts due to the annual rebalancing of commodity indexes, which is expected to bring in $2.2 billion in inflows [2][3] - Positive economic indicators include a year-over-year decrease in Challenger job cuts by 8.3% to 35,553, marking a 17-month low, and a rise in Q3 nonfarm productivity by 4.9%, close to expectations [4] Group 2 - The US Energy Department's announcement to selectively roll back sanctions on Venezuelan crude could potentially increase global oil supplies, putting downward pressure on crude prices [5] - Morgan Stanley has revised its crude price forecasts downward, predicting a Q1 price of $57.50 per barrel and a Q2 price of $55 per barrel, citing expectations of a growing global oil market surplus [6] - Crude oil stored on stationary tankers decreased by 3.4% week-over-week to 119.35 million barrels, indicating a potential tightening of supply [6]

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices experienced a significant decline due to a strengthening dollar and concerns over energy demand, with February WTI crude oil closing down 2.04% and RBOB gasoline down 1.13% [1] - The crude crack spread has fallen to an 11-month low, negatively impacting refiners' purchasing decisions, while Morgan Stanley has revised its crude price forecasts downward for Q1 and Q2 [2] - Chinese crude demand is showing strength, with December imports expected to rise by 10% month-over-month, reaching a record 12.2 million barrels per day [3] - OPEC+ has decided to maintain its production pause in Q1 2026, with a forecasted global oil surplus of 4.0 million barrels per day for 2026, while OPEC's November production saw a slight decrease [4] - Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and tankers, along with new sanctions from the US and EU, are limiting Russia's crude oil export capabilities and reducing global oil supplies [5]

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices are under pressure, with crude oil reaching a 1.75-month low and gasoline hitting a 4.75-year nearest-futures low due to concerns about global energy demand and weaker-than-expected economic indicators from China [2][3] Group 1: Economic Indicators - China's November industrial production growth eased to +4.8% year-on-year, down from +4.9% in October, and below expectations of +5.0% [3] - November retail sales in China increased by only +1.3% year-on-year, significantly lower than the expected +2.9% and marking the smallest growth in 2.75 years [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Optimism regarding a potential ceasefire in the Ukraine conflict may lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russian energy exports, which would negatively impact oil prices [4] - Increased geopolitical risks in Venezuela, following the interception of a sanctioned oil tanker by US forces, may support crude prices as it complicates Venezuela's ability to export oil [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The decline in the S&P 500 to a 2-week low dampens economic outlook optimism, negatively affecting energy demand [2] - The crude crack spread fell to a 2.25-month low, discouraging refiners from purchasing crude oil for conversion into gasoline and distillates [4] - Crude oil stored on stationary tankers rose by +5.1% week-on-week to 120.23 million barrels as of December 12 [5]