It's been a very strong year for the markets, by the way. A very strong year for Bank of America in the markets. The economy has done well, not as well, perhaps, as the markets might indicate.Do you think the economy is in better shape because the markets are really over predicting what's going on. Look, as you look at our team, we have a great research team. As you know, David, their projection for 26 is a strong economy, 2.4% U.S. GDP growth.And that's strong not only on a relative basis to trend above 2% ...

Core Insights - Rising private healthcare costs are prompting millionaires to reconsider their living locations, as highlighted by Henley & Partners [1] Inflation Concerns - Inflation is a significant concern, with fears that it could spiral out of the Federal Reserve's control by 2026 [2][5] - Recent data indicates that while headline inflation was cooler than expected in November, it remains above the Fed's 2% target [3] Stock Market Observations - The stock market is perceived to be in a bubble, with the "Dr. X's Bubble Detector" indicating all-time high equity prices [3][5] Money Supply Dynamics - The M2 money supply has increased by $3.5 trillion over the past five years, which is viewed as a critical metric for inflation outlook [4] - The Federal Reserve's recent actions, including rate cuts and the cessation of quantitative tightening, are expected to loosen financial conditions, potentially accelerating price growth [6] Factors Contributing to Inflation - Several developments are identified that could exacerbate inflation in the coming year: 1. Fed rate cuts that loosen financial conditions [6] 2. The end of quantitative tightening, which previously aimed to control inflation [6] 3. Easing of lending rules, allowing banks to increase the money supply [7] 4. Increased issuance of T-bills by the US Treasury to fund government deficits, contributing to inflationary pressures [7]

In ths article, we will look at the 12 Small Cap Stocks to Buy with Huge Upside Potential.On December 17, Lale Akoner, Global Market Analyst at eToro, appeared on CNBC to talk about the market rotation trend shifting from mega-cap tech toward small caps, cyclicals, and financials.Talking about rotation in the market, she expects the trend to continue for a while, with the capital basically moving from the high multiple mega cap winners towards small caps, cyclicals, and the international markets. According ...

And joining me now to take a look at the current market setup and talk trends. We want to welcome in our next guest that's Ahmed Riaco, chief investment officer of Insignia. And thank you so much for joining us today.So we've got earning season behind us and the big AI headlines still swirling to some degree. When you think about what's driving markets now, what's your focus on. >> Well, first of all, good morning.Great to be here with you and just want to let you know, you know, gardening season was great. ...

It's time now for the big picture. So, let's welcome in the team from Charles Schwab. We've got Joe Mazole, head trading derivative strategist at Charles Schwab, and Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research.Joe, let's just start with you. Obviously, we're back to seeing some rotation in this market out of some of the technology names which did actually stage a late day recovery yesterday, but we're back to that sort of prevailing narrative that we had been seeing over ...

Core Insights - The U.S. job market may be in worse condition than previously thought, with an average loss of 20,000 jobs per month from April to September instead of a gain of 43,000 jobs [1][6] - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the economy likely gained around 60,000 fewer jobs each month than earlier reported [1][6] Labor Market Data - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a gain of 119,000 jobs in September, but if Powell's estimates are accurate, the actual number could be about half that [2] - The potential downward revision of job growth highlights ongoing concerns regarding the labor market's health [6] Economic Implications - A weaker labor market could negatively impact wages, consumer spending, and overall confidence, influencing expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts [3] - Powell's comments suggest a gradual cooling of the labor market, potentially influenced by tariff-related uncertainties and immigration policies [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley suggests that despite some negative economic signals, the economy is in an "early cycle" environment with potential for growth ahead [1][3]. Economic Indicators - ADP private payrolls were negative in November, and layoffs are at the highest levels in two decades, indicating some economic stress [1]. - The unemployment rate is rising, but Morgan Stanley believes the worst is already behind us [1]. Earnings Growth - There has been a significant rebound in earnings revisions, with the S&P 500 earnings revisions breadth improving from negative 25% in April to positive 15% [4]. - This rebound is typically seen in early cycle environments, suggesting improving business confidence [4]. Wage Growth and Profit Margins - Wage growth has slowed to a three-month moving average of 4.1% year-over-year, down from 6.7% in July 2022, providing room for profit margins to expand [4]. - Such a decline in wage growth is often observed during recessionary periods [4]. Consumer Demand - Consumer demand is expected to accelerate, as companies are showing higher pricing power, allowing them to increase prices without significantly impacting demand [5]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is cutting rates to stimulate economic activity, with expectations of two additional cuts in 2026 [6]. - Moderate weakness in the labor market is anticipated to continue, which will support these rate cuts without leading to a recession [6]. Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 14% rise in the S&P 500 to 7,800 by 2026, indicating a bullish outlook for the stock market [7]. Investment Recommendations - The bank recommends an "overweight" position on consumer discretionary stocks, which are expected to perform well during economic recoveries [8]. - This sector includes companies benefiting from consumer spending on non-essentials, such as apparel and hospitality [8].

We're scheduled to be at 4%, which is pretty amazing because we have a, you know, Deadhead Fed fan here. I mean, this guy, the head of the Federal Reserve, is a step. And, you know, you fight that.It's amazing. We fight that. And yet interest rates are going down.Except with him, not too much. He did a he did a rather, I would say, a rather small number that could have been doubled, at least double. ...

Core Insights - Small-cap stocks are showing signs of recovery, which may indicate a bullish trend as the market approaches 2026 [3][4] - The article discusses four small-cap stocks with dividend yields ranging from 7.1% to 13.3% [5] Small-Cap Market Overview - Small-cap stocks have underperformed compared to larger stocks over the past decade, with a brief rally during the COVID reopening in 2020 [3] - Factors such as rising interest rates and a shift towards safer mega-cap stocks have contributed to the underperformance of small caps [3][4] - The recent focus on potential Federal Reserve rate cuts has led to increased interest in small-cap stocks [3][4] Featured Small-Cap Stocks - **Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL)**: Offers a 13.0% dividend yield and is part of the business development companies (BDCs) sector, which is required to distribute at least 90% of earnings as dividends [5][6] - **UWM Holdings (UWMC)**: Provides a 7.1% dividend yield and is the largest home mortgage lender in the U.S., focusing on wholesale lending [11][12] - **Redwood Trust (RWT)**: Has a 12.7% dividend yield and is involved in jumbo residential mortgages and single-family rental loans, with a focus on improving earnings in the coming years [15][16] - **Franklin BSP Realty Trust (FBRT)**: Offers a 13.3% dividend yield and primarily deals in commercial mortgage-backed securities, with a recent acquisition expected to enhance its earnings potential [19][21] Financial Performance and Outlook - NCDL's high yield is supported by regular and supplemental dividends, although the latter have been replaced with a traditional payout schedule [6][10] - UWMC is positioned to benefit from lower mortgage rates, with plans to scale operations as rates decline [12][13] - Redwood Trust has been repurchasing shares and is on "dividend growth watch," indicating potential for future dividend increases [18] - FBRT's recent acquisition of NewPoint Holdings is expected to contribute positively to its distributable earnings, despite concerns over dividend coverage [21][22]

Eastman Chemical Company (NYSE:EMN) 2025 Conference Summary Industry and Company Overview - **Company**: Eastman Chemical Company - **Industry**: Specialty Chemicals, Advanced Materials, Additives, Functional Products Key Points and Arguments Demand Environment - Demand is currently lighter than expected, particularly in Chemical Intermediates, with North American demand deteriorating due to commodity price pressures and prolonged turnaround times for large crackers [3][4][5] - Advanced Materials and Additives & Functional Products are expected to maintain earnings in line with previous forecasts despite overall lighter demand [3][4] Financial Performance - The company anticipates earnings for Q4 to be slightly below the previously communicated range of $0.75 to $1, primarily due to challenges in the Chemical Intermediates segment [5][6] - Cash flow is projected to approach $1 billion for 2025, supported by inventory management actions taken in Q3 [5][6] Inventory Management - Customers have not significantly built inventory, leading to a cautious approach in managing supply chains [7][8] - The company has made strategic decisions to manage inventory levels effectively, particularly in the fibers and specialty plastics businesses [8][9] Market Segments - Approximately 50% of Eastman's exposure is to discretionary markets, which typically yield higher margins [12] - The automotive sector is a significant focus, with Eastman positioned to benefit from higher-end automotive products due to increased glass usage and technology integration [15][17] Cost Management and Capital Expenditure - Eastman is on track to achieve $75 million in cost reductions for 2025 and an additional $100 million in 2026, focusing on operational efficiencies across the company [25][46] - Capital expenditures are expected to stabilize around $400 million, with potential increases if new projects are initiated [44][45] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about growth in the packaging sector, particularly in 2026, driven by mechanical recycling and innovative product offerings [22][39] - Eastman is strategically positioned to leverage its investments in digital technologies and supply chain transparency to enhance operational efficiency [9][10] Challenges and Risks - The company faces challenges from consumer demand fluctuations, particularly in discretionary segments, which may impact growth trajectories [38][40] - Ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, including interest rates and consumer affordability, could influence market conditions and demand recovery [18][20] Strategic Initiatives - Eastman is focusing on enhancing its circular economy initiatives, including the development of a methanolysis facility to support recycled content in packaging [32][33] - The company is committed to maintaining strong partnerships with customers to navigate current market challenges and capitalize on future growth opportunities [38][40] Additional Important Insights - The company has seen a shift in customer behavior, with a focus on maintaining existing relationships rather than expanding new product introductions in a challenging consumer environment [38] - Eastman is actively managing its supply chain to mitigate tariff impacts and enhance operational efficiency, particularly in its textiles and fibers businesses [26][28][27] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the Eastman Chemical Company conference, highlighting the current state of the company, its market segments, financial performance, and strategic initiatives moving forward.