Bloomberg From the Supreme Court’s decision against Donald Trump’s tariffs to the threat of Federal Reserve rate hikes and signs of labor-market resilience, a range of pressures are forcing a sentiment shift in the $31 trillion Treasury market back in favor of bears. Treasuries fell last week for the first time in a month as a slate of negative drivers piled up. The US high court’s move to strike down Trump’s signature global tariffs threatens to remove, at least for now, a major source of government rev ...

U.S. Treasury Yields Rise as Fed Sees Upside Risks to InflationCONCLUDED[Stock Market News From Feb. 19, 2026: Dow Falls. Oil Rises on Iran Fears.]Last Updated:---16 hours ago# U.S. Treasury Yields Rise as Fed Sees Upside Risks to InflationByEmese Bartha, Dow Jones NewswiresU.S. Treasury yields rose in a steepening manner in early trade after the Federal Reserve's minutes indicated upside risks to inflation.FOMC members anticipate inflation will move toward the 2% target but see risks to the inflation proje ...

Market Sentiment - Bitcoin has experienced a four-week decline, dropping as much as 3.2% to $66,604, reflecting a cautious macro backdrop among investors [1] - Sentiment in crypto markets is described as bleak, despite strong adoption progress by traditional institutions, which is not reflected in overall prices [2] - The Fear and Greed Index for crypto markets is at 10 out of 100, indicating "extreme fear" [3] Market Dynamics - US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen net outflows for four consecutive weeks, with $360 million withdrawn last week [3] - Macro news has been closely correlated with crypto's risk profile over the past year, with expectations of consolidation as Bitcoin seeks new sentiment drivers [4] Price Levels and Predictions - Investors are debating whether Bitcoin has established a durable support level, with $60,000 seen as critical, though it may not hold if risk appetite worsens [5] - There is a possibility of a sharper decline into the $50,000s if macro uncertainties persist, as current market conditions do not reflect a full capitulation [6] Institutional Actions - Harvard University has reduced its Bitcoin exposure by selling 1.5 million shares of the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, while also initiating a stake in the iShares Ethereum Trust ETF [7] - Dartmouth College's endowment has increased its stakes in both Bitcoin and Ether [7]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is experiencing significant volatility due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic concerns, leading to a decline in its price and market sentiment [2][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Bitcoin dropped 1.7% to approximately $67,600, reflecting a broader weakness in equity futures, with Nasdaq 100 contracts down 0.9% and S&P 500 contracts down 0.6% [2]. - Bitcoin has fallen over 50% from its peak of $126,000 in October 2025, with analysts identifying $60,000 as a key near-term support level [5]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The correlation between Bitcoin and high-beta tech stocks has increased, making Bitcoin more sensitive to risk-off sentiment in equities [3]. - Market sentiment is at levels not seen since the 2022 bear market, with only 55% of Bitcoin's supply currently in profit and around 10 million BTC held at a loss [6]. - The Fear and Greed Index indicates extreme caution, sitting at 10, which is firmly in the "extreme fear" zone [6]. Group 3: ETF Activity - There have been sustained outflows from US-listed Bitcoin ETFs, with $360 million withdrawn last week, marking the fourth consecutive week of net outflows [4].

The dollar is edging higher for a second day, shrugging off market pricing that implies roughly three Fed rate cuts this year https://t.co/rE6FxmkWBi ...

By Mike Dolan Feb 12 - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets World stock markets have been pretty buoyant as they digest the robust U.S. January employment report and dampened Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. While the downward revisions to ‌2025 payrolls underscore last year’s subdued hiring, the 130,000 payroll gain last month was almost twice the 70,000 forecast. The unemployment rate also unexpectedly ‌fell to 4.3% - even as labor f ...

US planned layoffs surge 205% to 108,435 in January, highest since 2009 as labor market cools, potentially forcing Fed rate cuts that could support risk assets like $BTC. https://t.co/chP3nWz5Ej ...

A weaker currency is usually a good thing. Usually all these other nations are fighting each other to try to have the weakest currency. Lately, it's been the US dollar sliding and yet everyone here is panicking about that.Yes, it's fallen, but it's fallen by like from like 99 to 96 and it used to trade down in the 80s. So, we might have some more weakness from here. It might go back higher.The thing that's a real headwind for the country is when it's up at 110 like it was a year ago. The only problem with t ...

Core Insights - Americans collectively owe $1.233 trillion in credit card debt, with nearly half of all cardholders carrying balances month to month at an average APR of 22.83% [2][7] - Despite recent Federal Reserve rate cuts, borrowers face a persistent financial squeeze as credit card issuers maintain a consistent markup, meaning lower Fed rates do not provide meaningful relief for consumers [2][3] Credit Card Interest Structure - The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate to 3.72% in December, but credit card borrowers have seen minimal benefit due to a consistent 15 to 18 percentage point markup over the prime rate, which is about 3 percentage points above the Fed's rate [3][4] - Credit card interest rates are typically variable and tied to the prime rate, which follows Fed policy adjustments, but the issuer's margin remains constant, keeping absolute rates elevated [4] Debt Accumulation and Payment Dynamics - Daily compounding makes credit card debt particularly expensive; a typical $5,000 balance accumulates over $3 in new interest daily, leading to accelerated debt growth [5][7] - Minimum payments create a debt trap, where the majority of payments go to interest rather than principal, causing the balance to decline slowly and total interest paid over time to exceed the original amount borrowed [6][7]

Interest Rate Predictions - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate three times in 2025, totaling 75 basis points, which was more aggressive than initial market expectations [3] - For 2026, the median expectation is for an additional 50 basis points of rate cuts, typically occurring at two of the eight meetings throughout the year [4] - There is a belief that the market is underestimating the potential for more aggressive rate cuts, with a prediction of four or more cuts being more likely than the current 11% market pricing suggests [6] Economic Conditions - Economic uncertainty and pressures on the job market are expected to persist, influencing the Fed's decision-making [5] - The 10-year Treasury yield is currently at 4.19%, which is higher than mid-2024 levels, but a significant drop to below 3.5% is predicted by the end of 2026 [6] - Predictions indicate that mortgage rates, currently averaging around 6.2%, could see significant relief, potentially falling to 5.5% by the end of 2026 [6]