November WTI crude oil (CLX25) on Tuesday closed up +1.13 (+1.81%), and November RBOB gasoline (RBX25) closed up +0.0218 (+1.14%). Crude oil and gasoline prices moved sharply higher on Tuesday on concerns about Russian crude supplies after NATO promised a "robust" response to Russian incursions into its airspace.   Crude prices fell back from their best levels after Tuesday's economic reports showed weaker-than-expected manufacturing activity in the Eurozone and the US, a bearish factor for energy demand ...

Group 1: Oil Supply and Demand Dynamics - A decrease in crude oil held on tankers worldwide is bullish for oil prices, with a reported decline of -7.2% week-over-week to 67.96 million barrels as of September 12 [1] - Weaker-than-expected global economic indicators, including a drop in the US Empire manufacturing survey and lower-than-expected industrial production in China, are bearish for energy demand and crude prices [2] - Ukraine's intensified attacks on Russian oil infrastructure are expected to curb Russian crude exports, tightening global oil supplies and supporting crude prices [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Escalating geopolitical risks in Europe and the Middle East are bullish for crude prices, with incidents such as Poland shooting down Russian drones and Israeli strikes in Qatar contributing to market uncertainty [6] - Concerns over potential new sanctions on Russian energy exports due to the ongoing war in Ukraine are providing additional support for crude prices [5] Group 3: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ has agreed to raise crude production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October, which is less than the previous increases, indicating a cautious approach to market conditions [7] - Concerns about a global oil glut are emerging as the International Energy Agency raised its 2026 global crude surplus estimate to 3.33 million barrels per day, reflecting OPEC+'s plans to revive production [7][8] Group 4: US Oil Inventory and Production - Recent EIA reports indicate that US crude oil inventories are -3.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, with gasoline and distillate inventories also below their respective averages [9] - The number of active US oil rigs has increased slightly, rising by +2 to 416 rigs, although this remains above a 4-year low [10]

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices increased due to concerns over declining Russian oil exports, which may limit global oil supplies [2][4] - The US proposed imposing tariffs up to 100% on China and India for purchasing Russian oil to pressure Russia regarding the Ukraine conflict [2] - Geopolitical tensions, including Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian infrastructure and military actions in the Middle East, are contributing to bullish sentiment in crude oil prices [5] Price Movements - October WTI crude oil closed up by $0.32 (+0.51%) and October RBOB gasoline closed up by $0.0061 (+0.31%) [1] - The S&P 500's rally to a new record high indicates confidence in the economic outlook, which supports energy demand and crude prices [2] Supply Dynamics - Reduced Russian crude output is tightening global oil supplies, with processing runs dropping to 5.09 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, the lowest in over 3.25 years [4] - Ongoing geopolitical risks in Europe and the Middle East are expected to further support crude prices [5] Economic Indicators - A stronger dollar and a decline in the University of Michigan US consumer sentiment index to 55.4, a four-month low, are limiting gains in crude prices [4]

EUR/USD (^EURUSD) on Thursday rose by +0.37%. The euro moved higher on Thursday after the ECB kept interest rates unchanged, as expected, and raised its 2025 Eurozone GDP forecast. The euro added to its gains on hawkish comments from ECB President Lagarde, who said the ECB now sees growth risks in the Eurozone as more balanced and the disinflationary process is over, signaling the ECB is done cutting interest rates.The markets are now pricing in a 100% chance of a -25 bp rate cut and a 10% chance of a 50 bp ...

Group 1: Price Movements - October WTI crude oil closed down -1.30 (-2.04%) and October RBOB gasoline closed down -0.0287 (-1.43%) [1] - Crude oil and gasoline prices fell sharply due to concerns about a global crude supply glut and a rise in US jobless claims [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The IEA increased its 2026 global crude surplus estimate to 3.33 million bpd, which is +360,000 bpd higher than previously anticipated [3] - OPEC+ agreed to raise crude production by 137,000 bpd starting in October, which is significantly lower than the previous increases [5] - Reduced Russian crude output and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have tightened global oil supplies, supporting prices [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Escalation of geopolitical risks in Europe and the Middle East is bullish for crude prices, with tensions rising due to recent military actions [4] - The conflict in the Middle East, a region that supplies about one-third of global oil, poses additional risks to oil supply stability [4]

Group 1 - Crude oil and gasoline prices are experiencing significant declines due to concerns over a global supply glut, with the IEA increasing its 2026 global oil surplus estimate to 3.33 million bpd, which is 360,000 bpd higher than previously anticipated [2][3] - The rise in weekly jobless claims in the US to a 3.75-year high is raising concerns about economic growth and energy demand, contributing to the downward pressure on crude prices [2] - Geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East are providing some support for crude prices, as escalations could disrupt oil supplies from these regions [4] Group 2 - OPEC+ has agreed to raise crude production by 137,000 bpd starting in October, which is significantly lower than the previous increases of 547,000 bpd in August and September, indicating a cautious approach to market conditions [5] - Reduced Russian crude output due to ongoing conflicts and sanctions is tightening global oil supplies, which is supportive of prices, with Russian crude-processing runs dropping to 5.09 million bpd, the lowest in over 3.25 years [5][6] - The ongoing war in Ukraine raises concerns about potential additional sanctions on Russian energy exports, which could further reduce global oil supplies [6]

Group 1 - The dollar index rose by +0.03% due to increased safe-haven demand from geopolitical risks in Europe, particularly after Poland shot down Russian drones [1] - The dollar's gains were limited as bond yields declined following a weaker-than-expected US August PPI report, which solidified expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed at the upcoming FOMC meeting [1][4] - The US final-demand August PPI eased to +2.6% year-on-year from +3.1% year-on-year in July, which was below expectations of +3.3% year-on-year [3] Group 2 - Markets are currently pricing in a 100% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 12% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 16-17 [4] - Following the anticipated 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, markets are discounting a 79% chance of a second 25 basis point cut at the October 28-29 meeting [4] - Overall, markets are pricing in a total reduction of 74 basis points in the federal funds rate by year-end, bringing it down to 3.64% from the current 4.38% [4] Group 3 - The EUR/USD fell by -0.09% due to escalating geopolitical risks in Europe, particularly after Poland's actions against Russian drones [5] - The euro is under pressure as geopolitical tensions rise, with long liquidation and position squaring affecting the currency ahead of the ECB meeting [5] - Losses in the euro were somewhat mitigated after the dollar slipped following the weaker-than-expected US August PPI report [5]

Group 1 - Crude oil and gasoline prices are rising due to a weak dollar and escalating geopolitical risks in Europe, particularly after Poland shot down Russian drones, which is seen as an "act of aggression" [2][3] - OPEC+ has agreed to increase crude production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting in October, which is a smaller increase compared to the previous months [4] - Concerns over the ongoing war in Ukraine may lead to additional sanctions on Russian energy exports, further tightening global oil supplies [5] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East are contributing to bullish sentiment for crude prices, with Israel's recent strike on Hamas leadership in Qatar potentially widening the conflict [3] - Despite a bearish EIA inventory report showing an unexpected rise in crude supplies and gasoline stockpiles, crude prices are still climbing [2] - Reduced Russian crude output due to Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries has led to a significant decrease in Russia's crude-processing runs, supporting higher prices [4]

Group 1 - Global stock markets rose after U.S. indexes closed at record highs, driven by optimism regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - U.S. futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increased by 0.3%, while Dow Jones futures declined by 0.1% following the record close [4] - European indexes opened higher, with defense stocks gaining due to geopolitical tensions, particularly after the Russian drone incursion into Poland [5] Group 2 - Novo Nordisk's shares fell by 1.0% after the company downgraded its guidance for the second time in six weeks and announced a workforce reduction of approximately 11% to save $1.3 billion annually [6] - Oracle's shares surged by 29% in premarket trading after securing four multibillion-dollar contracts with three different customers in the quarter ending August 31 [7]

Geopolitical Risks - Crude oil and gasoline prices increased due to concerns over the widening conflict in the Middle East following Israel's strike in Qatar targeting Hamas leaders [2][3] - Qatar condemned the Israeli attack, stating it violated international law and could escalate tensions in a region that supplies about one-third of global oil [3] Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ has agreed to raise crude production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting in October, which is a decrease from the previous increases of 547,000 bpd in September and August [4] - Reduced Russian crude output, due to Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, has tightened global oil supplies, with Russian crude-processing runs dropping to 5.09 million bpd, the lowest in over 3.25 years [4] Sanctions and Regulatory Environment - Ongoing war in Ukraine may lead to additional sanctions on Russian energy exports, further reducing global oil supplies [5] - US Treasury Secretary indicated that the US will closely examine sanctions on Russia, while European leaders have called for secondary sanctions targeting companies from third countries supporting Russia [5]