Investors and the White House may be betting on multiple interest-rate cuts this year, but the Federal Reserve just delivered a warning: The next move could be up, not down. Minutes of the January Federal Open Market Committee released Feb. 18 show several Fed officials discussed the possibility of raising interest rates if sticky inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. That’s right: a resumption of interest-rate hikes if the nation’s labor market continues to stabilize but inflation persists. “Sev ...

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Market Overview - Asian markets reacted to stronger-than-expected U.S. payroll data, which dampened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and negatively impacted U.S. stocks [1] - Japan's Nikkei 225 index reached 58,000 for the first time, driven by renewed confidence in domestic politics and the ruling administration's economic agenda [1] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng index futures were lower at 27,206 compared to the last close of 27,266.38 [1] U.S. Market Performance - Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index increased by 0.42% in early trading [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended a three-day winning streak, dropping 66.74 points (0.13%) to close at 50,121.40 [2] - The S&P 500 index remained nearly flat at 6,941.47, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.16% to 23,066.47 [2] Employment Data - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a job growth of 130,000 in January, significantly higher than the Dow Jones estimate of 55,000 [3] - December's job growth was revised down to 48,000, indicating a stronger labor market that has reduced the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Consumer Spending - A separate report indicated that consumer spending in December was flat, missing the expected 0.4% monthly gain [4]

Group 1 - The recent government shutdown delayed the release of key jobs data, which was originally scheduled for last Friday [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics had just resumed its regular data release schedule after a 43-day shutdown, which previously halted all federal data collection [2] - The lack of government data has led to increased attention on third-party reports, such as Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which reported that companies cut 108,000 jobs in January, the highest for any January since 2009 [3] Group 2 - U.S. employers added 50,000 jobs in December, which was below the revised figure of 56,000 jobs added in November and below the expected 73,000 jobs [3][4] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4% in December from a revised 4.5% in November, marking the first decline since June [4] - Federal Reserve officials are concerned about a potential surge in unemployment, noting that job openings in December were at their lowest since 2020 [5][6] Group 3 - Economists view job openings as a leading indicator of future job growth, which is crucial for the Federal Reserve's mandate to maintain high employment and control inflation [6] - The Federal Reserve has been divided on whether to cut interest rates to support the job market or maintain higher rates to combat inflation, with rates held flat at the January meeting [7] - Analysts from Bank of America Global Research referred to the upcoming jobs report as the "Super Bowl of jobs reports" due to the significant attention it is receiving [8] Group 4 - Forecasters predict that U.S. employers likely added 55,000 jobs in the last month, with job gains expected to be concentrated in health care, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.4% [9] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Employment Situation Summary monthly, estimating job additions, average hours worked, and average hourly earnings [11] - The government's jobs report is considered the gold standard for measuring labor market health and the broader U.S. economy [12]

Core Viewpoint - The US Labour Department is expected to release employment data that will indicate whether job growth in 2026 is gaining momentum after a year of the weakest hiring pace outside of a recession in over two decades [1] Employment Data Insights - The upcoming employment data is closely watched and will provide the first indication of job growth trends for 2026 [1] - The previous year experienced the weakest hiring pace in more than twenty years, excluding recession periods [1]

Let's bring in Michael Canterowitz, chief investment strategist for Piper Sandler. I mean, we're we're climbing these these worry spots around overinvestment in AI and around software disruption in AI and around weaker job growth. Michael, how h how does the risk reward look to you from here.>> Yeah, we're we're still constructive on equities. I think why we're climbing these worries, you know, that the macro data and the breadth of earnings data are the ladder that is helping us climb a lot of these concer ...

The statement said economic activity remains solid, while job growth has been weak and inflation remains somewhat elevated; two FOMC members, Miran and Waller, dissented and favored a 25-basis-point rate cut at this meeting. ...

This story has been updated. From Main Street to Wall Street, there are questions as to when interest rates will drop again. The Jan. 28 meeting of the Federal Reserve’s policymaking panel paused interest-rate cuts as expected in its first meeting of 2026. The benchmark Federal Funds Rate influences short-term borrowing rates, such as those on credit cards, auto financing, and student loans. Fed Governors Stephan Miran and Christopher Waller dissented from the decision, voting to cut the funds rate by ...

Small- and medium-sized business owners are tuning into this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting despite expectations that policymakers will hold interest rates steady. There are still a great deal of economic tailwinds to distill into sound business decisions for the rest of the year. Andy Bregenzer, Head of U.S. Regional and Small Business Banking and Co-Head of Commercial Bank at TD, said inflation is still running above the Fed’s 2% target and volatility is lingering across markets. “Growth ...

Market Performance - US stocks ended the week higher, with tech stocks leading the gains, resulting in record closes for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 [1] - The Dow led major indexes with a gain of over 2% for the week, while the Nasdaq Composite rose nearly 2% and the S&P 500 increased by approximately 1.6% [1] Oil Market - Oil prices increased throughout the week, influenced by the US military's capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and the Trump administration's seizure of Venezuela's oil industry [2] - Brent crude oil futures rose more than 3.7% for the week, while West Texas Intermediate futures gained roughly 2.6% [2] Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data on consumer prices, producer prices, and retail sales will be closely monitored, as traders anticipate the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rates [3] - Current market expectations indicate a 95% probability that the Fed will maintain unchanged rates at the upcoming meeting [3] Earnings Reports - The earnings season is set to begin, with major banks such as JPMorgan Chase and BNY Mellon reporting results on Tuesday, followed by Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup on Wednesday [3] - Other significant companies reporting include Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Taiwan Semiconductor later in the week [4] Labor Market Insights - The December jobs report indicated that 2025 was the worst year for US job growth outside of a recession since 2003, with only 584,000 new jobs added [5] - This marked a significant decline from over 2 million jobs added in 2024, and it was the first time job gains fell below 1 million annually, excluding the years 2008, 2009, and 2020 [5] - Despite concerns, the market's reaction suggested that labor market conditions are cooling but not collapsing, according to economic research insights [6]