Government Shutdown Resolution - US government shutdown ends with a deal to keep operations running through January 30th [1] - The agreement reverses federal worker layoffs and funds key programs [2] Market Impact - Markets barely flinched during the shutdown, with the S&P 500 climbing 2% [2] - The shutdown shaved off approximately 8/10 of a percentage point from quarterly GDP [3] Economic Fallout - The shutdown resulted in roughly $55 billion in lost output [3] - Goldman Sachs estimates job growth slowed to 50,000 in October, down from approximately 85,000 in September [3] - Concerns over slowdown in job growth and stretched valuations still linger [4]

ADP out with its preliminary jobs data. I want to get straight over to Steve Leeman who's got the details. Steve.>> Yeah, not a good one. Um, Andrew, this is down 11,000. The 4-week moving average of private sector job creation uh in the ADP preliminary report down 11,000 on average over the four weeks.So that would equate to a month-on-month change of minus almost 44 45,000. Uh and just to explain first of all in the middle of the shutdown we're trying to bring viewers uh every single bit of alternative da ...

I do want to start off here with Wall Street specifically, given the decades that you spent there that has been financially one of the main drivers of this city. One of our Bloomberg Opinion columnists has some great data out showing just the attrition that we've seen in that industry and the idea that some of the new industries that have moved in don't necessarily carry the same high net worth individuals that we saw in Wall Street. And I am curious as to where you think the balance is and how Mamdani can ...

Core Insights - Retailers are expected to hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers this year, marking the lowest number in at least 15 years [1][2] - This hiring expectation reflects a softening labor market, with a significant drop from last year's 442,000 seasonal hires [2] - Companies are managing higher costs from tariffs and have limited spending, which may have led to early hiring for sales events in October [2] Employment Trends - Layoff announcements surged to 153,074 in October, a 183% increase from September and a 175% rise from the same month last year, the highest for any October since 2003 [4] - 2025 is projected to be the worst year for announced layoffs since 2009 [4] - Conversely, ADP reported a net job growth of 42,000 in October, reversing two months of losses in the private sector [4] Economic Context - The ongoing government shutdown has resulted in fewer government reports on economic data, leading companies and economists to rely on private data sources [3]

Since the 1989 cult classic Groundhog Day never specifies exactly how long it took Bill Murray’s character to escape his repetitive purgatory in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, fans devoted enough to run the numbers have come up with their own estimate: 33 years. Players in the US housing market hope to escape the numbers-driven winter of their discontent quite a bit sooner, but green shoots are sparse so far and last week didn’t do much to help. The nation’s largest homebuilder, D.R. Horton, saw its proverb ...

The government shutdown is now 31 days old and there has been very little economic data coming from the government during that period. But there are some alternative sources that are providing labor and inflation statistics. For that we get to our senior economics reporter Steve Leeman.He's been searching for data high and low and he's come up with some pretty interesting things. Good morning Steve. >> Hey, good morning Becca.Yeah, we're able to put together a preliminary estimate of jobless claims. I'll ex ...

Economic Outlook - Consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level since April, indicating potential challenges in the broader markets and economic outlook [1] - There is a split in expectations regarding job growth, with some anticipating higher growth while others foresee lower growth, reflecting a mixed sentiment among consumers [3] Consumer Behavior - Real personal disposable income is declining at an annual rate of approximately 1%, yet consumer spending remains stable, likely supported by equity gains and home appreciation [4] - Consumers are currently relying heavily on the wealth effect to maintain their consumption patterns, despite underlying economic stress [4][5] - There are indications that consumers may be growing weary of spending, which could impact future consumption patterns [7] Market Sentiment - The investment community remains cautious, with widening outcomes in economic forecasts, particularly regarding the impact of AI on productivity and labor markets [9][10] - The expectation is for a slowing economy with decent nominal growth, potentially leading to a resurgence in productivity driven by AI in the coming years [11] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue its quantitative tightening through the end of the year, as concerns about the balance sheet size persist among committee members [13][14] - There is ongoing debate about whether the Fed will adjust its inflation target from 2% to 3%, reflecting broader discussions on monetary policy [12]

Core Insights - Job creation in the U.S. economy is significantly slowing, with the September jobs report delayed due to the government shutdown [1][7] - Private data sources indicate a minimal increase in employment, primarily in the education and healthcare sectors, with a reported gain of 60,000 jobs in September [2][5] - The overall job market appears weak, with private estimates suggesting essentially no job growth for the month [5][7] Job Market Analysis - The September jobs report from ADP indicated a loss of 32,000 jobs, with gains concentrated in large healthcare companies, while smaller firms are struggling due to tariffs and immigration policies [5][6] - Revelio Labs' data shows job growth concentrated in California, New York, and Massachusetts, but recent revisions suggest that the initial estimates may be overstated [2][5] - The Conference Board's consumer confidence survey indicates a decline in job availability perceptions, suggesting a potential rise in unemployment [6] Economic Implications - The absence of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data complicates the assessment of economic health and policy-making [7] - Economists had anticipated a gain of 50,000 jobs in the BLS report, with an unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.3% [10] - Once the government shutdown concludes, the BLS will release the delayed September jobs report, although there may be a lag in publication [11]

Economic Impact of Potential Shutdown - A short government shutdown (one to two weeks) is unlikely to have a significant macroeconomic or market impact [1] - A data blackout caused by a shutdown would be particularly problematic given the current inflection point in the labor market and the Fed's upcoming interest rate decision [3] - If the shutdown lasts longer than two weeks, it could become a real problem and investors will likely take notice [4] Labor Market Conditions - The labor market is currently weak, with little to no job growth in recent months [3][4] - Businesses have pulled back on hiring, reduced hours, and cut back on temporary jobs, but layoffs remain low [5] - The expectation is for a flat job market, and revisions may show a net loss of jobs [6] Consumer Spending and GDP - Second quarter GDP growth was 380% (原文应为3.8%，此处为笔误) and August personal spending was 6%, both better than expected [7] - Strong consumer spending is attributed to the wealth effect from the stock market, primarily benefiting high-income households [8] - The saving rate has declined, indicating that high-income consumers are spending more aggressively [9] Economic Vulnerabilities - The economy is vulnerable because almost half of all spending is done by the top 10% of the income distribution (making over approximately $275,000-$300,000 per year) [12][13] - If the stock market declines and people start seeing losses, the saving rate could increase, potentially leading to a recession given the lack of job growth [15] - Disturbing data on average FICO scores and collapses in auto subprime financing indicate potential pain for the lower income cohort [11]

Welcome back to Money Movers. Markets coming off of their record highs as questions around Fed independence intensify, excitement over AI heat up. Still with me here is Citadel founder and CEO Ken Griffin.Look, I' I've really been interested to ask you about just the overall feel of the market right now given it's been so much more resilient and strong than people thought it would be this year, making record high after record high. How does that feel to you. Well, I mean, if if we came into the start of thi ...