Vistra (NYSE:VST) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 26, 2026 10:00 AM ET Speaker7Hey, welcome to Vistra's fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by 0. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your telephone keypad, and to withdraw your question, please press star, then two. We ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - IDACORP's diluted earnings per share (EPS) increased to $5.90 in 2025 from $5.50 in 2024, marking the 18th consecutive year of EPS growth [4][6] - The company ended up $0.15 per share above the midpoint of its original EPS guidance for 2025 [4] - Full-year 2026 earnings guidance is estimated to be in the range of $6.25-$6.45 diluted EPS, reflecting an expected growth rate of 8% over 2025 [34][35] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Idaho Power's customer base grew by 2.3% in 2025, with residential customers increasing by 2.5%, totaling over 660,000 metered customers [8] - The company recorded a significant increase in operating income due to a January rate increase and customer growth, contributing approximately $75 million [20] - Operating expenses increased less than $10 million, primarily due to labor-related costs [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing robust growth across its service area, outperforming national trends, with significant industrial projects such as Micron's semiconductor facility and Meta's data center contributing to this growth [8][9] - Idaho Power is seeing increased inquiries from energy-intensive customers, indicating strong demand for energy in the region [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - IDACORP is focused on maintaining affordability for customers while managing significant capital expenditures, with a forecast of $1.4 billion in average annual CapEx from 2026 to 2030 [25][26] - The company is actively working on major infrastructure projects, including the B2H transmission project and the SWIP-North Transmission Project, expected to be completed by 2028 [13][14] - A definitive asset purchase agreement has been made to sell its distribution system in Oregon for $154 million, allowing the company to concentrate on growth in Idaho [18][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the company's growth trajectory, citing strong cash flows and the potential for large load revenues to support future earnings [32][35] - The company anticipates that the completion of large load projects will help mitigate the need for future rate cases and reduce reliance on investment tax credit amortization [35][75] - Management noted that hydropower generation is expected to be within the range of 5.5 million-7.5 million MWh for the year, with current hydrological conditions being favorable [36][78] Other Important Information - The company has a strong balance sheet with a target 50/50 debt-equity capital ratio and no significant upcoming maturities [29][57] - Cash flows from operations exceeded $600 million for the first time in company history, contributing to a strong cash position [32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on customer and load pipeline - Management noted strong inquiries from diverse industries, including data centers and manufacturing, with several customers moving into construction studies [40][41][42] Question: Equity needs and funding split for incremental CapEx - Management indicated that any incremental CapEx would likely be financed on a 50/50 debt-equity basis, with large load customers potentially impacting cash flow needs [44][46][47] Question: Size of investment opportunity for Micron fab 2 - Management is currently working with Micron to determine the size of the investment opportunity but has no specifics to share at this time [52][53] Question: FFO to debt ratio and credit rating outlook - Management indicated that the FFO to debt ratio was approximately 14.3% at the end of 2025, with expectations for improvement due to large load revenues [55][57] Question: Standardized large load tariff vs. special contracts - Management stated that there are currently no plans for a standardized large load tariff, as each customer has unique needs [66][67] Question: Hydropower forecast and drought conditions - Management expressed optimism about hydropower generation, noting that current conditions are normal and that they are prepared for summer operations [78][79]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - IDACORP's diluted earnings per share (EPS) increased to $5.90 in 2025 from $5.50 in 2024, marking the 18th consecutive year of EPS growth [4] - The company ended 15 cents per share above the midpoint of its original EPS guidance for 2025, which included approximately $40 million in additional tax credit amortization [4] - The full-year 2026 earnings guidance is estimated to be in the range of $6.25-$6.45, reflecting an expected EPS growth rate of 8% over 2025 [34][35] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Idaho Power's customer base grew by 2.3% in 2025, with residential customers increasing by 2.5%, totaling over 660,000 metered customers [8] - The company achieved record energy sales to retail customers and maintained high reliability scores [6][8] - Operating income was positively impacted by a January rate increase and customer growth, contributing approximately $75 million [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing robust growth across its service area, outperforming national trends, driven by significant industrial projects such as Micron's semiconductor facility and Meta's data center [8][9] - The inquiries from prospective large customers are diverse, including data centers and manufacturing, indicating strong demand in the region [41] Company Strategy and Development Direction - IDACORP is focused on maintaining affordability for customers while managing significant capital expenditures, with a forecast of $1.4 billion in average annual CapEx from 2026 to 2030 [24][26] - The company is actively working on major infrastructure projects, including the B2H transmission project and the Swift North Transmission Project, to support future growth [13][15] - A definitive agreement has been made to sell its Oregon distribution assets, allowing the company to concentrate on rapidly growing Idaho communities [18][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, citing strong cash flows and the potential for large load revenues to support growth without necessitating immediate rate cases [32][35] - The company is monitoring hydropower conditions closely, with current forecasts indicating normal levels, which is crucial for operational planning [78] Other Important Information - The company plans to file requests for Certificates of Public Convenience and Necessity (CPCNs) for new resources in the near term, including a natural gas plant [17] - The anticipated completion of the Oregon asset sale is subject to regulatory approvals, which could take up to 10 months [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on customer and load pipeline - Management noted strong inquiries from diverse industries, including data centers and manufacturing, with many customers moving beyond initial inquiries to construction studies [40][41][42] Question: Equity needs and funding split for incremental CapEx - The company indicated that incremental CapEx would likely be financed on a 50/50 debt-equity basis, with large load customers potentially impacting cash flow needs [44][46][47] Question: Size of investment opportunity for Micron Fab 2 - Management is currently working with Micron to determine the size of the investment opportunity and will provide updates as more information becomes available [52][53] Question: FFO to debt ratio and credit rating outlook - The company reported an FFO to debt ratio of approximately 14.3% at the end of 2025, with expectations for improvement due to large load revenues and a strong balance sheet [55][57] Question: Standardized large load tariff - Management stated that there are no current plans for a standardized large load tariff, as each customer has unique needs that are addressed through tailored contracts [66][67] Question: Hydropower conditions and drought impact - Management expressed optimism about hydropower generation, noting that while there have been fluctuations, current conditions are normal and supportive of operational needs [78][79]

Core Insights - American Electric Power (AEP) is experiencing significant demand growth driven by data centers and large loads, particularly in Texas, which is influencing the company's capital expenditure plans [1][5]. Group 1: Demand and Growth - AEP has contracted 56 GW of large loads expected by 2030, a substantial increase from 28 GW in the third quarter [2]. - Retail sales growth for AEP is projected at 7.5% in 2025, up from 3% in 2024, primarily fueled by commercial and industrial sales [3][8]. - Data centers constitute nearly 90% of AEP's large load pipeline, indicating a strong reliance on this sector for future growth [5]. Group 2: Financial Projections - AEP's capital expenditure plan through 2030 is set at $72 billion, with an additional $5 billion to $8 billion anticipated [4]. - The consolidated return on equity for AEP is expected to rise to 9.1% in 2025, up from 8.8% in 2023 [5]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Utility regulators in several states, including Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia, have approved large load tariffs to protect existing customers from costs associated with new loads [7]. - Similar tariff proposals are under consideration in Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas, and Virginia, reflecting a proactive regulatory approach to manage growth [7]. Group 4: Infrastructure and Load Management - AEP Texas has seen an increase in large loads compliant with Senate Bill 6, now totaling 36 GW, up from 13 GW in the fall [6]. - The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) is a crucial component of AEP's long-term growth strategy, with a significant portion of new loads coming from hyperscaler data centers [6][7].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved fourth quarter 2025 operating earnings of $1.19 per share, bringing full year 2025 operating earnings to $5.97 per share, exceeding the top end of the guidance range [9] - Total shareholder return for 2025 was 29%, one of the highest in the industry [9] - The company reaffirmed its 2026 full-year operating earnings guidance range of $6.15-$6.45 per share, with a long-term earnings growth rate of 7%-9% for 2026-2030 [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The retail sales grew by 7.5% in 2025 compared to 2024, driven by significant commercial and industrial sales growth of nearly 10% [24] - The generation and marketing segment saw favorable energy margins and benefits from contract optimization [22] - The company reported a year-over-year increase in earned ROE on the regulated business to 9.1%, up 30 basis points from two years ago [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company now has 56 gigawatts of firm incremental contracted load additions, doubling the previous 28 gigawatts reported [11] - The growth in contracted load is primarily driven by data centers in Texas, Ohio, and Indiana, with 90% of the incremental PJM load supported by executed take or pay electric service agreements [25] - In ERCOT, AEP Texas has signed letters of agreement for 36 gigawatts with large industrial customers and data center developers [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on significant infrastructure investment to meet unprecedented customer demand across its 11-state regulated service territory [5] - AEP is deepening engagement with customers, regulators, and suppliers to align long-term goals and achieve favorable outcomes [6] - The company is exploring generation solutions, including small modular reactors and fuel cells, to support customer demand [12][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the importance of scale in mitigating supply chain risks and meeting massive system demand [6] - The company is committed to maintaining affordability for residential customers while supporting incremental load growth through innovative rate design [18] - Management expressed confidence in the execution of their robust plan and the ability to capitalize on unprecedented opportunities ahead for the grid [18] Other Important Information - The company has a large but conservative $72 billion five-year capital plan, yielding a 10% rate-based CAGR [10] - AEP is actively working on regulatory strategies to keep customer affordability top of mind, including tariff filings in multiple states [12][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: What could the doubling of signed contract load mean for CAGR? - Management indicated that the $72 billion five-year capital plan does not include the incremental load growth and will provide more definitive ideas around financing and growth rate in future calls [38][40] Question: What protections are in place for the ESAs? - Management expressed confidence in the financial security of counterparties and the take or pay component of the large load tariffs, ensuring that costs do not negatively impact existing customers [43][44] Question: Can you provide more details on transmission projects? - Management stated that there is approximately $5 billion associated with transmission projects, with specific amounts allocated to SPP, PJM, and MISO [58] Question: How do you view the contracted generation business? - Management sees contracted generation as complementary to their core business, providing solutions to customers for quicker connections [71][72] Question: What is the status of the 36 gigawatts in ERCOT? - Management confirmed that they are prepared to deliver on these projects and are closely monitoring the implementation of SB 6 [95]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Sector**: Global Alternative Energy - **Outlook**: Improved investor sentiment driven by increased policy certainty in the US and global electricity load growth [2][7] Core Insights - **Load Growth**: - Load growth has been stagnant at approximately 0.5% annually over the past decade, but estimates have recently risen to around 2% or higher for the next five years due to AI-driven data center demand and broader electrification trends [5][6] - This growth is expected to exert upward pressure on power pricing, benefiting baseload power sources such as gas turbines, nuclear, and renewables paired with battery energy storage systems (BESS) [5][6] - **Policy Environment**: - Increased clarity in US renewable energy policy through the passage of significant legislation, though risks remain, including potential investigations and tariff decisions that could impact solar costs [5][6] - The Department of Commerce's investigations and permitting issues for solar and wind projects on federal land present uncertainties [6] Investment Preferences - **Top Picks in Clean Energy**: - **US**: GE Vernova (GEV), Brookfield Renewable (BEP/BEPC), NextPower (NXT), and EVgo (EVGO) [2][12][19] - **Europe**: Siemens Energy (ENR), Vestas (VWS), and Prysmian (PRY) [2][15][17] - **Asia**: Orient Cables (603606 CH), Daqo (DQ), GCL Tech (3800 HK), Arctech (688408 CH), and Sungrow (300274 CH) [2] Market Dynamics - **Solar Market**: - Preference for utility-scale solar over residential due to better positioning regarding policy and economic factors [7] - In China, polysilicon prices have recovered by approximately 50% due to policy interventions, with Daqo and GCL Tech highlighted as strong picks [20] - **Wind Market**: - BNEF forecasts significant growth in global wind installations, with a projected 16% growth in 2026 [17] - Vestas is expected to outperform the European Capital Goods sector due to stable input prices and lower interest rates [17] - **Energy Storage**: - Global energy storage demand exceeded expectations in 2025, with a forecasted 57% increase in battery shipments for 2025 [7] - The forecast for 2026 global ESS installations has been raised by approximately 30% [7] - **Electric Vehicle Charging**: - Sentiment around EV charging remains cautious, with anticipated declines in US EV sales [7] - EVgo is preferred due to its growing customer base and network throughput potential [19] Additional Insights - **Nuclear Fuel Cycle**: - Global nuclear generation is expected to reach record highs, increasing demand for enriched uranium [8] - Centrus Energy (LEU) is noted as a key player, though it faces execution risks [8] - **US Clean Energy Outlook**: - BNEF anticipates a decline in US clean energy build from 2026 to 2028 before returning to modest growth through 2035 [62] - The market is expected to consolidate as larger projects become more complex, favoring tier-1 developers [63] - **Residential Solar Market**: - A projected decline of 15-20% in US residential solar installations in 2026 due to the expiration of certain tax credits [64] - RUN is highlighted as a preferred pick in the residential space due to its visibility in solar lease/PPA qualifications [65] Conclusion - The global alternative energy sector is poised for growth driven by load demand and supportive policies, though challenges remain in the form of regulatory uncertainties and market dynamics. Key investment opportunities exist in diversified companies with strong balance sheets and exposure to emerging technologies.

Financial Performance & Strategy - The company has lowered rates three times in the last 15 months and expects to lower them again in 2026 while growing earnings at over 9% per year [3] - Infrastructure investment is offset by operating maintenance cost reductions, leading to significant cost savings [1] - Improving credit metrics results in lower cost financing, allowing the company to lower rates for customers [2] Infrastructure & Technology - The company has buried its 1,000th mile of power lines, at a million dollars a mile less than a couple of years ago [4] - Technology underpins situational awareness and responsiveness, leading to a 35% reduction in ignitions this year despite similar fire conditions [5] - The company is implementing layers of protection, starting with hardening the system to mitigate fire risk [4] Load Growth & Rate Design - The company is experiencing rate-reducing load growth due to increased compute demand, particularly from AI applications [7] - Residential customers do not subsidize large load; large load pays its full freight [7] - The company has rate designs in place so that residential customers only benefit from new and growing load [9] - Compute data centers are located throughout the service area, supporting companies using AI in their daily business [10]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - IDACORP's diluted earnings per share increased to $2.26 in Q3 2025 from $2.12 in Q3 2024, with year-to-date EPS rising to $5.13 from $4.82 [3][4] - Net income for Q3 2025 rose by $10.8 million compared to Q3 2024, primarily driven by higher retail revenues and customer growth [14][18] - Operating cash flows through September 2025 were $464 million, up $6 million from the previous year [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Customer base grew by 2.3% year-over-year, with residential customers increasing by 2.5% [5][6] - Retail revenues per megawatt hour increased operating income by $17.6 million, while customer growth added $7.8 million to operating income [14][15] - O&M expenses rose by $4.2 million due to inflationary pressures and wildfire mitigation efforts [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a modest decrease in irrigation usage per customer, attributed to higher precipitation and lower temperatures compared to the previous year [15][44] - Despite lower cooling degree days, sales growth remained strong, indicating robust customer growth and operational performance [41][42] Company Strategy and Development Direction - IDACORP is focusing on maintaining customer affordability while supporting growth, with residential rates increasing less than the national average since 2014 [7][8] - The company is advancing key projects, including the Boardman to Hemingway transmission line and the Bennett Mountain gas-fired plant expansion, to meet future load growth [9][10] - A recent settlement in the Idaho general rate case aims to increase annual revenues by $110 million, supporting the company's financial health [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in operational performance, raising full-year EPS guidance to a range of $5.80 to $5.90 [4][22] - The company anticipates continued customer growth, particularly in manufacturing and technology sectors, driven by significant investments in the region [5][6] - Management acknowledged potential economic softening but noted no significant trends of concern regarding customer growth [40] Other Important Information - The company filed its 2026 Idaho Wildfire Mitigation Plan, outlining methods to mitigate wildfire risk [11][12] - The Idaho Commission approved a request for additional pre-collection of Hells Canyon AFUDC, increasing cash collection by about $30 million annually [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: What was in the capital plan for Jackalope, and what are the potential solutions? - Management noted that the Jackalope Wind Project was a significant capital piece, with 600 megawatts of capacity, and they are exploring gas options as replacements [25][26] Question: Can you provide insights on customer growth trends? - Management indicated that while customer growth is steady, there may be slight softening due to economic factors, but no major concerns were noted [40][42] Question: How do you plan to address the loss of the Jackalope Wind Project? - Management stated that they will update the capital forecast in February and are considering incremental resources to replace the lost capacity [77][78] Question: What are the priorities for the next general rate case? - Management is assessing the timing and need for the next rate case, considering various elements including potential tracking mechanisms [68][69] Question: How do you see the ROE outlook with new large load customers? - Management expects that revenues from large load customers will eventually increase ROE above the minimum level of 9.12% [70][71]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - American Electric Power reported third quarter 2025 operating earnings of $1.80 per share, a decrease from $1.85 per share in the same period last year, primarily due to the prior year's sale of the onsite partners' distributed resources business [24][25] - Year-to-date operating earnings totaled $4.78 per share, up from $4.38 per share in 2024, representing an increase of approximately 9% year over year [25] - The company reaffirmed its 2025 full-year operating earnings range of $5.75 to $5.95 per share, guiding to the upper half of this range [9][34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Significant commercial and industrial load growth of nearly 8% on a rolling 12-month basis as of September 30, 2025, compared to the same period last year [25] - The generation and marketing segment's performance was impacted by the prior year sale of the distributed resources business, but favorable energy margins helped support overall results [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - AEP projects a system peak demand of 65 gigawatts by 2030, with a load growth of almost 76% in the next five years, driven by data centers and reshoring of manufacturing [10][11] - The company has secured 28 gigawatts of contracted load additions, up from 24 gigawatts previously reported, backed by energy service agreements or letters of agreement [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - AEP announced an increased long-term operating earnings growth rate of 7% to 9% for 2026 to 2030, with an expected 9% CAGR over the five-year period [7][27] - The company is focused on a $72 billion capital plan, with over two-thirds directed towards transmission and generation to support load growth [30][34] - AEP is actively engaging with regulators and policymakers to achieve constructive outcomes that benefit both customers and shareholders [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's strategy and team, highlighting the importance of disciplined execution and strong cash flow from operations [36][37] - The company is committed to maintaining affordability for customers, forecasting average system residential customer rates to increase by approximately 3.5% annually through 2030, below the historical average inflation rate [21][35] Other Important Information - AEP has secured commission approvals for data center tariffs in Ohio and large load tariff modifications in Indiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia [11][16] - The company is exploring generation solutions, including participation in the early site permit process for small modular reactors in Indiana and Virginia [19][20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Drivers of earnings step up in 2028 - Management indicated that the capital plan peaking in 2027 and 2028, along with positive legislative outcomes, will drive earnings growth during that period [39][40] Question: Composition of equity needs - Management discussed the anticipated equity needs and potential for minority stake sell downs, indicating a proactive approach to funding growth [42][44] Question: Earnings growth in 2028 to 2030 - Management clarified that the guidance for 2028 to 2030 reflects year-over-year growth, with expectations to be at or above the high end of the range [49][64] Question: Strategy for data center load growth - Management expressed confidence in meeting transmission capacity needs for data centers, highlighting the competitive advantage of their 765 kV transmission network [71][73] Question: Balance between renewables and gas generation - Management emphasized a balanced approach to generation planning, aligning with state energy policies and customer preferences [75][76]

Financial Performance - Q2 2025 operating earnings per share (EPS) reached $1.43, compared to $1.25 in Q2 2024, representing a 14% increase[22] - Year-to-date (YTD) 2025 operating EPS was $2.98, up from $2.52 in YTD 2024, reflecting an 18% growth[24] - The company is guiding towards the upper half of the 2025 operating earnings guidance range of $5.75-$5.95 per share[20] - Moody's FFO to Debt as of June 30, 2025, was 13.2%[46, 114] Capital Investments and Growth - AEP expects to announce a new 5-year capital plan of approximately $70 billion to meet growing energy needs[18, 20] - The company is executing a $54 billion capital plan and expects approximately 8% rate base growth through the 5-year forecast[11, 18, 51] - Approximately $34 billion, or 63%, of the $54 billion capital forecast is allocated to wires (transmission and distribution)[75, 77] - Approximately $14 billion, or 26%, of the $54 billion capital forecast is allocated to regulated new generation, including renewables[75, 79] Load Growth and Demand - AEP anticipates 24 GW of incremental load growth through 2029, supported by signed customer financial commitments[17, 25, 43, 44] - The company has approximately 190 GW of interconnect requests in various stages of development[17, 25, 44] - Peak demand in Q2 2025 reached 37.6 GW, generating $2.9 billion in revenue, compared to 33.5 GW and $2.7 billion in Q2 2024[42] Financial Strength and Strategy - The company closed a $2.82 billion minority interest transmission transaction, contributing to S&P's outlook upgrade to stable[25, 29, 51] - AEP reaffirms its long-term growth rate of 6%-8% and a FFO/Debt targeted range of 14%-15%[18, 25] - The company's balance sheet strength is reinforced by S&P's favorable outlook revision to stable[49]