The dollar index (DXY00) today is up +0.18%.  The dollar recovered from overnight losses and turned higher after weekly US jobless claims rose less than expected, a sign of labor market strength.  The dollar extended its gains after a stock market slump boosted liquidity demand for the currency.  The dollar initially moved lower today amid a stronger yuan, which rallied to a 2.75-year high. US weekly initial unemployment claims rose by +4,000 to 212,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations ...

The PBOC is boosting the supply of money available to banks to ensure they can meet the surge in demand for cash during the Lunar New Year holidays https://t.co/0QPEj9YlHZ ...

Market Overview - The bulls have dominated Wall Street for nearly three years, with major indexes showing significant gains [1] - In 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite increased by 13%, 16%, and 20% respectively, achieving multiple record-closing highs [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. money supply, particularly M2, is reaching historical levels, with M2 hitting an all-time high of $22.411 trillion in December 2025 [8] - M2's growth is traditionally seen as a positive sign for a bull market, as it indicates a growing economy requiring more capital for transactions [8] Concerns and Warnings - Despite the positive outlook, the expansion of M2 money supply has not kept pace with the tech-driven rally on Wall Street, raising concerns about sustainability [9] - The overwhelming optimism in the market, driven by artificial intelligence advancements and anticipated interest rate cuts, may not be sustainable in the long term [3]

Market Overview - Euro M2 money stock is approximately $15.5 trillion [1] - Euro stablecoins supply has surpassed $1 billion [1] - Euro stablecoins represent approximately 0.006% of the Euro M2 money stock [1] Stablecoin Adoption - Euro stablecoins adoption is effectively non-existent at a macro level [1] - Euro stablecoins adoption lags significantly behind USD stablecoins [1] - Recent growth in Euro stablecoins is visible, but starts from a near-zero base [1] Stablecoin Ecosystem - Ethereum hosts the largest share of Euro stablecoins [1] - Liquidity across other chains for Euro stablecoins is fragmented [1] - No dominant Euro stablecoin rail has emerged yet [1]

RT Token Terminal 📊 (@tokenterminal)EUR M2 is ~$15.5T.Euro stablecoins just crossed ~$1B in supply.That’s ~0.006% of the underlying money stock.Euro stablecoins are still effectively untouched territory. https://t.co/sIF6voaYpL ...

Money Supply - U S M2 Money Supply 创下 223 万亿美元的历史新高 [1]

Core Argument - Real GDP increases when businesses are built onchain, and Avalanche aims to put real GDP onchain [7] - By putting real GDP onchain, money velocity increases, thereby increasing real GDP [1] - Avalanche's ecosystem is focused on increasing both money supply through sustainable businesses and money velocity through network speed [4] Avalanche's Strategy - Avalanche is building an ecosystem, not a business, comprising thousands of interconnected entities [2] - The focus is on sustainable businesses, which take time to build, indicating a long-term strategy [3] - Avalanche is onboarding the world to blockchain, aiming for a future where blockchain usage is seamless [8] Key Features & Applications - Avalanche's high throughput, horizontal scaling, and sub-second finality support real GDP onchain [4] - Sustainable revenue is being put onchain through various applications like ticketing, institutional finance, DeFi, loyalty programs, gaming, payments, and privacy [5][6][7] - Avalanche aims to improve GDP by reducing trapped capital through sub-second finality [7]

Core Insights - Inflation is affecting the purchasing power of salaries, with 75% of Americans reporting rising prices [1][2] - The average inflation rate has been 3.25% annually over the last century, with the most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 3.97% [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's expansion of the M2 money supply by about 40% in 2021 led to significant inflation, which is now stabilizing around 4.5% year over year [5] Impact on Salaries - Workers are likely to experience a "double cost" of inflation, where essential prices rise faster than wage increases, leading to increased stress in negotiating higher wages [6] - Even when companies do raise pay, these increases often do not keep pace with inflation due to employers managing their own rising costs [6] Recommendations for Workers - Workers are advised to take a proactive approach by reviewing their compensation early in the year and preparing data on market pay rates and performance results [7]

Monetary Supply - M2 money supply year-on-year rate is 82%, expected 81%, previous value 84% [1] - M1 year-on-year rate is 62%, expected 70%, previous value 72% [1] - M0 year-on-year rate is 106%, previous value 115% [1] Social Financing - China's October social financing scale increment hit a new low since July 2024 [1] - The first 10 months of social financing scale increment was 309 trillion yuan (October new social financing 081 trillion yuan), an increase of 383 billion yuan year-on-year [1] RMB Loans - RMB loans increased by 1452 trillion yuan (October decreased by 20 billion yuan), a year-on-year decrease of 116 trillion yuan [1]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley suggests that it is time for investors to take profits in the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, as it has entered the "fall season" of its four-year market cycle, which historically precedes a potential downturn [2][5] - CCN's analysis indicates a more complex relationship between Bitcoin prices and U.S. money supply, suggesting that the current market dynamics may not be solely liquidity-driven [4][5] Morgan Stanley Outlook - Denny Galindo from Morgan Stanley Wealth Management states that Bitcoin is currently in the "fall season" of its market cycle, a period when investors typically cash out before a potential crypto winter [2][5] - Historical patterns indicate a "three-up, one-down" rhythm in Bitcoin's price cycles, suggesting that the current rally may soon lead to consolidation or decline [3] CCN's Data Analysis - CCN analyst Valdrin Tahiri highlights inconsistencies in the correlation between U.S. money supply and Bitcoin prices, noting that both fell during the 2022-2023 bear market [4][5] - The analysis shows that in the 2018-2019 downturn, Bitcoin's price dropped despite an expanding money supply, while the 2020 bull market aligned with a surge in liquidity [6] Technical Outlook - Tahiri's technical analysis indicates caution, as Bitcoin's monthly chart has shown a bearish candlestick formation and a breakdown from an ascending wedge pattern, historically signaling the end of an uptrend [7] - The completion of a five-wave advance since early 2023 suggests that the upward leg of the cycle may be complete, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [8]