Kent Smetters, faculty director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model, is challenging the narrative that tariffs are a tool for protecting domestic industry. In a recent interview with Fortune, Smetters held forth on what he said was his long-held view that broad-based tariffs are a “dirty VAT” (value-added tax)—a policy he believes is significantly more damaging to the U.S. economy than traditional tax increases. While economists generally view a broad-based, flat VAT as an efficient method for raising gove ...

🚨 BIG: The US National Debt projected to surge $2.4 trillion annually over next decade, reaching record $64 trillion by 2036, triple from 2018, per CBO.What solves this? 👇 https://t.co/r1kbKO8iSZ ...

Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has shifted from a neutral stance to a hawkish position, raising the cash rate to 3.85% to combat widespread inflation, indicating that previous settings were "no longer sufficiently restrictive" [2][9] - The RBA noted that demand is outpacing aggregate supply, a condition expected to persist if the cash rate remained at 3.60% [2][3] - Inflation pressures are widespread, and the RBA expressed limited confidence in the future path of the cash rate while aiming to return inflation to target and preserve employment gains [3] U.S. Fiscal Situation - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the U.S. national debt will approach $64 trillion by 2036, nearly doubling from 2023 levels, with annual deficits expected to average $2.4 trillion over the next decade [4][9] - The U.S. dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves has fallen to its lowest level in approximately 25 years, indicating a decline in its dominance as a global reserve currency [5] Automotive Industry Dynamics - Chinese automakers have reached a significant milestone, capturing 10% of total passenger car sales in Europe, with over 15% of the electric vehicle (EV) and plug-in hybrid market [6][9] - This shift in the automotive market is prompting responses from European leaders, including increased defense spending in the UK, which may benefit major contractors like BAE Systems [7] Labor Market and AI Impact - The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis reports that 52% of recent college graduates are underemployed, with many working in roles that do not require a bachelor's degree, highlighting a labor market "squeeze" [5][9] - Entrepreneur Andrew Yang warns that millions of office jobs may "evaporate" within the next 12 to 24 months due to AI-driven automation, particularly affecting white-collar workers engaged in repetitive cognitive tasks [10]

RT Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio)If you spent $10 million per day for the past 2,000 years since Jesus was born, you would have spent about $7.4 trillion by now.The US national debt is $38.7 trillion. https://t.co/n7qlt4Wu8K ...

Economic Overview - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, which many experts deem unsustainable [1] - The U.S. is characterized as a "debtor nation," contributing to a global "economy of debt" that may exacerbate market volatility [2] Market Performance - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant surge of 16.39% in 2025, marking three consecutive years of double-digit gains [3] - Despite recent market crashes, stocks have shown resilience, recovering losses and finishing the year positively [4] Consumer Debt - Total U.S. household debt reached a record high of $18.8 trillion in Q4 2025, indicating a growing financial burden on American consumers [6] - A Bankrate survey revealed that 61% of Americans carried credit card debt for over a year in 2025, up from 53% in late 2024 [7] Economic Sentiment - Nearly two-thirds of Americans believe the economy is not performing well, with 82% expecting rising living costs in the next two years [10] - An affordability crisis is evident, with many Americans resorting to cheaper groceries and skipping meals to save money [9] Investment Strategies - Kiyosaki advocates for diversifying portfolios with alternative assets like gold, which he refers to as "God's money," amid market uncertainty [11] - Predictions for gold prices vary, with Kiyosaki forecasting $27,000 per ounce, while other estimates suggest $10,000 to $6,200 by the end of 2026 [15] Cryptocurrency Insights - Kiyosaki promotes Bitcoin as "people's money," emphasizing its limited supply as a hedge against inflation and declining dollar value [17] - New platforms like Robinhood Crypto are making cryptocurrency investments more accessible, allowing users to trade with minimal fees [18] Diversification Trends - High-net-worth individuals are increasingly diversifying away from traditional stocks, with some investors predicting a 10-20% drawdown in equity markets within the next 12 to 24 months [20] - Post-war and contemporary art has outperformed the S&P 500 by 15% from 1995 to 2025, offering unique diversification opportunities [22]

Market Overview - The year started with volatility due to geopolitical uncertainties and tariff tensions, yet the S&P 500 ended January with a gain of approximately 1.9% [1] - February has seen increased volatility, with a significant market sell-off and a shift in investor concerns from geopolitical risks to AI-related anxieties [2][3] AI Concerns - A recent sell-off termed "software-mageddon" has led to increased scrutiny of Big Tech's AI investments, causing a broad market reaction [4] - The travel and leisure sector has shown a divergence, with online booking platforms suffering while traditional hotel operators gain favor amid AI disruption concerns [5] Debt Concerns - The U.S. national debt is currently at $38.65 trillion, with public debt at $30.92 trillion, projected to reach $56 trillion (120% of GDP) by 2036 [6] - The Congressional Budget Office forecasts budget deficits will widen from $1.9 trillion in fiscal 2026 to $3.1 trillion by 2036, indicating increasing economic headwinds [7] Volatility ETFs - Increasing exposure to volatility ETFs is suggested as a strategy to hedge against downside risks during market uncertainty [8][10] - Volatility-focused funds have historically provided short-term gains during chaotic market conditions, making them appealing for short-term investors [9][10] ETF Recommendations - iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN has gained 3.76% over the past month and 6.16% as of February 12, charging an annual fee of 0.89% [13] - ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF has gained 3.64% over the past month and 6.33% as of February 12, with an annual fee of 0.85% [15] - ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF has gained 0.41% over the past month and 1.11% as of February 12, also charging an annual fee of 0.85% [17] Long-term Investment Strategies - Long-term investors are advised to focus on diversified, less concentrated ETFs and employ strategies like buy-the-dip and dollar-cost averaging to navigate short-term volatility [18]

Japan's experience shows that low interest rates are not an excuse to grow the national debt to twice the size of your economy. @allisonschrager asks: America, are you listening? (via @opinion) https://t.co/JDqj2qNROx ...

Group 1 - The newly-appointed Federal Reserve chairman faces a significant challenge reminiscent of post-World War II, with the U.S. experiencing its largest budget crisis in 70 years, where interest payments consume one in every five dollars collected in taxes [1] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that by 2035, interest costs will surpass Medicare expenditures, becoming the largest budget item [1] - Rising interest rates would exacerbate the budget deficit, increasing the cost of new borrowings and accelerating interest expenses [1] Group 2 - President Trump emphasizes the need for lower interest rates to maintain the U.S. as the safest investment destination, arguing that high interest costs are detrimental to the economy [2] - The conflict between the Federal Reserve and the administration centers on managing interest costs, with potential rate increases posing challenges to fiscal policy [2] - The Treasury heavily relies on T-bills for refinancing and funding deficits, with T-bills accounting for 84% of federal borrowings in the last fiscal year, and $10 trillion in U.S. bonds maturing in the next twelve months [2]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Jerome Powell says US $38.5 trillion national debt is "not sustainable." ...

In 2016, this Japanese company issued a public apology. For the first time in 25 years, they were hiking the price of a popular ice cream by 10 yen, or about $0.06%. And they were deeply sorry.Now, in any other country, this might have been an overreaction, but in Japan. Inflation is just completely alien as a concept. For three decades, the country saw stagnant or even decreasing prices, which is why a 10 yen price-hike for an ice cream was such a big deal.But a huge slide in the yen is helping change that ...