Oil declined on the prospect of increased Venezuelan crude sales after US forces seized two more sanctioned tankers and said it’s already marketing some of the country’s supply. West Texas Intermediate fell 2% to settle just below $56 on Wednesday on expectations that an uptick in sales of Venezuelan barrels will put downward pressure on prices in an already oversupplied market. Most Read from Bloomberg US President Donald Trump said late Tuesday that Venezuela’s interim government agreed to give as ma ...

Group 1 - Oil prices fell after the U.S. announced a deal to import up to $2 billion worth of Venezuelan crude, increasing supplies to the U.S. [1][2] - Brent crude futures decreased by 35 cents (0.6%) to $60.35 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell by 52 cents (0.9%) to $56.61 per barrel [1][2] - The deal may require rerouting cargoes initially bound for China, as Venezuela has millions of barrels of oil that have been unable to ship due to a blockade [2][3] Group 2 - The U.S. pressure campaign against Venezuela has led to significant geopolitical tensions, with Venezuelan officials accusing the U.S. of attempting to seize oil reserves [3] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict a potential oil market surplus of up to 3 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026 due to weak demand growth and rising supply [4] - BMI analysts suggest that increased Venezuelan oil exports could hinder the expansion of productive capacity in the U.S. and elsewhere, raising medium-term oil price expectations [5]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices declined as traders considered the potential increase in Venezuelan crude output following the U.S. capture of President Nicolas Maduro, contributing to expectations of sufficient global supply amid weak demand [1] Group 1: Oil Prices - Oil prices fell on Tuesday due to market reactions to geopolitical events [1] - The decline in prices is linked to expectations of higher Venezuelan crude output [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There are growing expectations of ample global oil supply this year [1] - Weak demand is a significant factor influencing the current oil market conditions [1]

16 December 2025 | 10:04PM EST Commodities Research Oil Tracker: Brent in the 50s as Stocks Land and Upside Risks to Long-Term Supply Rise 1 Year-end tax rules have likely been weighing on US oil stocks as well. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sa ...

The world has more oil than it needs, but a drop in crude prices this week to the lowest level in nearly five years may help slow production and boost demand. ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, particularly the geopolitical risks affecting oil prices and exports, with a specific emphasis on Russia, Kazakhstan, and Venezuela [3][5][9]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Brent Crude Price Stability**: The Brent crude price has remained stable in the low $60s amid ongoing Russia-Ukraine peace talks, which have not yielded significant breakthroughs [3][5]. 2. **Russian Oil Export Revenue Decline**: - Seaborne oil exports from major Russian producers Lukoil and Rosneft have decreased by 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d), or 42%, since the announcement of sanctions in October [3][5]. - Overall Russian oil export revenues in Rubles have fallen by approximately 50% year-to-date, dropping from 7.6% of GDP to 3.7% [3][5]. 3. **Geopolitical Risks Impacting Kazakhstan and Venezuela**: - Kazakhstan's oil exports may be affected by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's efforts to restore full capacity following drone attacks, with current exports potentially 0.5 mb/d below capacity [3][5]. - Venezuela's oil production has decreased by 0.5 mb/d over the last two months due to escalating military risks, although there is potential for long-term recovery with the return of Western investments [3][5]. 4. **US Oil Production Growth**: - The US EIA report for September indicated a year-over-year increase in US liquids production by 1.3 mb/d, with a nearly equal split between crude and natural gas liquids (NGLs) [3][5]. - Public oil producers in the US reported nearly 2% higher Q3 oil production than previously expected [3][5]. 5. **Brazil's Record Oil Production**: Brazil's oil production rose by 0.76 mb/d, or 24% year-over-year, reaching a new record high in October [3][9]. 6. **Refined Products Margins**: European diesel margins have declined by $11 per barrel from mid-November highs, influenced by peace-talk headlines and expectations of increased Chinese product export quotas [3][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Global Oil Stocks**: Global visible oil stocks have increased by nearly 2 mb/d over the past 30 days, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [3][9]. - **US Oil Rig Count**: The US oil rig count decreased by 12 to 407 last week, which may signal a slowdown in future production growth [12]. - **Future Supply Growth Expectations**: Strong supply growth is anticipated outside of OPEC+ and the US Lower 48 crude regions into the next year, with several new projects expected to come online [25][30]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the oil industry, geopolitical influences, and production trends.

Core Insights - Indian refiners' shift away from Russian oil has led to a significant increase in oil product prices, with ICE Brent-Gasoil crack spreads rising nearly 70% year-to-date, reaching a 21-month high above $32 per barrel [1] - U.S. distillate inventories are at their lowest level since mid-July, which is expected to support product strength as the high-demand winter season approaches [2] - Despite the tightening distillates market, crude oil prices remain weak, influenced by bearish supply sentiment and geopolitical tensions, particularly Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure [3] Inventory and Pricing Trends - Gasoline inventories in the U.S. are reported at 205.06 million barrels, 8.2 million barrels below the five-year average, marking the lowest level in 12 years [1] - U.S. distillate inventories stand at 110.91 million barrels, 9.3 million barrels below the five-year average, indicating a tightening market as winter demand increases [2] - The ICE gasoil-Brent crack has exceeded $34 per barrel, the highest level since September 2023, with the price differential remaining above $30 per barrel for 10 consecutive trading days [2] Geopolitical and Supply Dynamics - Recent Ukrainian missile and drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have not significantly boosted oil prices, with Brent crude trading at $63.32 per barrel, showing minimal change from the previous week [3] - The port of Novorossiysk, a key export terminal with a capacity of approximately 2.2 million barrels per day, experienced a temporary suspension of loadings due to these attacks, highlighting vulnerabilities in the southern export route [3] - Analysts predict a slowdown in Russian crude exports following the upcoming sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, which could impact the overall supply dynamics in the market [4]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have declined in early Asian trading due to the resumption of crude loadings at the Russian export hub of Novorossiysk, following a two-day suspension [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Brent crude futures fell by 64 cents to $63.75 per barrel, while WTI crude futures decreased by 66 cents to $59.43 per barrel [1] - Last week's rally of over 2% for both benchmarks was driven by disruptions at Novorossiysk and a neighboring terminal operated by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium [2] - The resumption of loading operations at Novorossiysk has eased immediate supply pressure, as confirmed by industry sources and supported by data from LSEG [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian oil infrastructure, exemplified by an attack on the Ryazan refinery [3] - The market is facing a growing perception of oversupply, largely influenced by OPEC+ output decisions [3] Group 3: Sanctions and Production Activity - Western sanctions against Russian oil firms like Lukoil and Rosneft are expected to intensify after November 21, with U.S. officials considering penalties for countries engaging with Russia [4] - U.S. rig counts increased by three to 417 in the week ending November 14, indicating a modest rise in upstream activity [4] Group 4: Supply Vulnerabilities - Despite the return of exports at Novorossiysk alleviating immediate supply threats, underlying vulnerabilities persist due to ongoing attacks on Russian infrastructure, sanctions effects, and OPEC+ production strategies [5]

Core Viewpoint - Oil supply growth outside OPEC+ is expected to decline by April, while demand remains strong according to BP's Chief Executive Murray Auchincloss [1] Group 1 - The decline in oil supply growth outside OPEC+ could impact the overall oil market dynamics [1] - Robust demand for oil is anticipated to continue, indicating a potential imbalance between supply and demand [1]

Group 1 - Oil prices are rising as OPEC+ has agreed to pause output hikes for the first quarter of next year, alleviating concerns about a potential supply surplus [1][2] - Brent crude increased by 0.3% to $65 per barrel, while WTI rose by 0.4% to $61.21 per barrel [2] - OPEC+ members decided to raise production by 137,000 barrels per day for December, followed by a pause in increases from January to March, reflecting expectations of a seasonal demand slowdown [2][3]