Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Global Commodities Outlook for Frankfurt Global Strategy Conference Ride the Power Race and Supply Waves January 2026 Daan Struyven Managing Director Co-Head of Global Commodities Research Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC +1 212-357-4172 Daan.Struyven@gs.com 0:53:95 172:212:241 165:165:165 115 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal research and due diligence before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of complex financial instruments like cryptocurrencies and CFDs [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party materials intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information should not be interpreted as a recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - The content is not tailored to individual financial situations, highlighting the need for users to consult competent advisors [1]. Group 2 - The website discusses the high risks associated with cryptocurrencies and CFDs, noting that they are complex instruments with a significant potential for financial loss [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and to assess their ability to handle the associated risks before investing [1].

Core Viewpoint - Gold remains trapped in a tight range between $4,164 and $4,264, with a bullish bias as long as it holds above the 10-day average at $4,186 [1][5]. Range and Support Structure - The current trading range for gold is between $4,164 and $4,264, with the 10-day average at $4,186 acting as primary near-term support [1]. - A bounce off the 10-day average reinforces its importance, while the 20-day average at $4,144 serves as the next significant support if the 10-day average fails [4]. Confirmation Levels - A daily close above $4,219 would indicate minor strength, but a true breakout requires a settlement above last week's high of $4,245 [2]. Weekly Pattern Evolution - The recent correction ended with a higher swing low at $3,886, followed by a sequence of inside weeks and upside breakouts, indicating relative strength [3]. - This week has shown a narrow range near last week's highs, suggesting a potential for a strong weekly close, possibly the third-highest in history [3]. Outlook - Gold shows potential for higher prices, but momentum is lacking; maintaining the 10-day average and closing above $4,241–$4,245 is crucial for the bullish case [5]. - Failure to achieve these levels could lead to a decline towards the 20-day average, while the larger uptrend remains intact above the 50-day average at $4,076 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The overall trend for gold remains bullish, but recent price action indicates a lack of strong buying momentum following a breakout, which may limit upside potential in the short term [5] Group 1: Price Action and Technical Analysis - A bullish hammer candle was printed above the rising 10-day average, indicating that buyers are defending the pullback zone, with a potential resumption trigger above $4,236 [1] - A symmetrical triangle breakout occurred, suggesting the recent pullback may be complete; however, subsequent sessions have shown no significant acceleration in price [2] - The first realistic target for gold is $4,356, where the current second leg from the October low of $3,886 matches the price gain of the initial leg, indicating a potential resistance zone [3] Group 2: Support Levels and Market Dynamics - The low of $4,164 is approaching the rising 10-day average, which strengthens this area as short-term support, providing an ascending floor for prices [4] - The lack of conviction since the triangle breakout suggests that upside potential is currently on hold, with a decisive close above $4,236 needed to target $4,356 [5]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting thorough due diligence before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1] Group 1 - The content includes general news and publications, personal analysis, and opinions intended for educational and research purposes [1] - It highlights that the information provided does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1] - The article warns that the information may not be accurate or provided in real-time, and prices may be sourced from market makers rather than exchanges [1] Group 2 - The website discusses complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1] - It encourages users to perform their own research and understand the risks involved before making investment decisions [1] - The article mentions that FX Empire does not endorse any third-party services and is not liable for any losses incurred from using the information provided [1]

Summary of Key Takeaways from the Conference Call on the China Chemical Sector Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: China Chemical Sector, specifically MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate), refrigerants, electrolytes, and TiO2 (Titanium Dioxide) [2][3][4][5] MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate) - **Price Trends**: pMDI prices have decreased year-to-date (YTD), averaging Rmb15,986/t, down 6% YoY, with a forecast range of Rmb14,500-16,000/t for 2026 [8][11] - **Supply Dynamics**: Expected capacity additions in 2026 include Wanhua (700ktpa), BASF (160ktpa), and Covestro (40ktpa) [9] - **Demand Outlook**: Modest domestic demand growth anticipated in 2026, with a projected consumption growth of 2-6% for major downstream applications [10] - **Export Challenges**: Exports expected to decline to ~0.8mt in 2025, primarily due to reduced shipments to the US [10] Refrigerants - **Pricing Divergence**: Significant price variations observed YTD, with R32 and R134a prices increasing by 57% and 47% YoY, respectively, while R22 prices fell due to weak demand [12][15] - **Future Price Projections**: R32 and R134a prices expected to reach Rmb69,500/t and Rmb63,500/t by end-2026, respectively [14] - **Demand Risks**: Potential downside risks from new air conditioning demand and increased overseas capacity, particularly in India [15] Electrolytes - **Supply-Demand Balance**: Anticipated moderation in supply-demand imbalance for LiPF6 in 2026, with a price range forecast of Rmb80,000-90,000/t [16][17] - **Capacity Growth**: Expected capacity growth of 6.8% in 2026, with a slowdown to ~5.4% CAGR from 2026-2030 [17] - **Additives Pricing**: Significant price increases for electrolyte additives noted, with vinylene carbonate rising to Rmb108,000/t [18] TiO2 (Titanium Dioxide) - **Market Conditions**: Domestic TiO2 producers facing losses due to oversupply and high costs, with average prices projected to decline 3% YoY to Rmb13,500/t in 2026 [5][23] - **Capacity Additions**: Anticipated new capacity of 1.12mtpa in 2026, with 200ktpa expected to come online early in the year [21] - **Export Recovery**: Mild recovery in TiO2 export volumes expected, driven by global demand growth and potential changes in India's anti-dumping policies [22] Additional Insights - **Risks in the Chemical Sector**: Key risks include price volatility due to fluctuations in oil prices, macroeconomic uncertainties affecting demand, and rapid capacity expansions leading to oversupply [24] - **Analyst Insights**: The opinions expressed by experts do not necessarily reflect the views of UBS, and the firm disclaims responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided [7]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting thorough due diligence before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1] Group 1 - The content includes general news and publications, personal analysis, and opinions intended for educational and research purposes [1] - It highlights that the information provided does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1] - The article warns that the information may not be accurate or provided in real-time, and prices may be sourced from market makers rather than exchanges [1] Group 2 - The website discusses complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1] - It encourages users to perform their own research and understand the risks involved before investing in any financial instruments [1] - The article states that FX Empire does not endorse any third-party services and is not liable for any losses incurred from using the information provided [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the importance of due diligence and personal discretion in making financial decisions, emphasizing that the information provided is for educational and research purposes only [1] Group 1 - The content includes general news, personal analysis, and third-party contributions intended for educational purposes [1] - It highlights that the information is not tailored to individual financial situations or needs [1] - The article warns that prices may not be accurate and are often provided by market makers rather than exchanges [1] Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and CFDs, which carry a high risk of losing money [1] - It encourages thorough research before making investment decisions and advises against investing in instruments that are not fully understood [1]

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - The content is not tailored to individual financial situations or needs, highlighting the necessity for users to apply their own discretion [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - Users are encouraged to perform their own research before making investment decisions, especially regarding instruments they do not fully understand [1].