Europe needs to take much more decisive action to slash reliance on Chinese rare earths to avert worse supply disruptions, according to a German magnet maker that’s just started a plant in the US https://t.co/7x2biVCa2J ...

Trade Policy - China suspended export controls on rare earths and other critical materials until November 2026 [1] - The suspension is part of a trade truce with the US [1]

Financial Performance - Revenue decreased by 13% year-over-year, from $804 million in Q3 2024 to $699 million in Q3 2025[11, 16] - Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 48% year-over-year, from $143 million in Q3 2024 to $74 million in Q3 2025[11, 25] - Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased by 720 basis points year-over-year, from 17.8% in Q3 2024 to 10.6% in Q3 2025[11, 25] - Free cash flow was a use of $137 million in Q3 2025, compared to a use of $14 million in Q3 2024[11] - Net loss attributable to Tronox was $99 million in Q3 2025, compared to a net loss of $25 million in Q3 2024[11, 13] Operational Highlights - TiO2 volumes decreased by 8% year-over-year and 4% quarter-over-quarter[16, 21] - Zircon volumes decreased by 4% year-over-year and 7% quarter-over-quarter[16, 21] - The company is on track to deliver sustainable run-rate cost improvements of more than $60 million in 2025 and $125-$175 million by the end of 2026[10] Liquidity and Capital Allocation - The company raised $400 million of secured notes in Q3 2025[10, 33] - Total debt was $3.2 billion as of September 30, 2025, with a net leverage ratio of 7.5x on a trailing twelve-month basis[33] - Total available liquidity was $664 million as of September 30, 2025, including $185 million in cash and cash equivalents[33]

Summary of China Northern Rare Earth High-Tech (600111.SS) 3Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Northern Rare Earth High-Tech (NRE) - **Ticker**: 600111.SS - **Industry**: Rare Earth Materials Key Financial Highlights - **Net Profit**: 9M25 net profit reached Rmb1,541 million, up 280% YoY, representing 69% of Street consensus and 71% of the full-year estimation [1][5] - **3Q25 Net Profit**: Implied net profit was Rmb610 million, up 22% QoQ and 69% YoY [1] - **Excluding One-offs**: Net profit excluding one-offs for 9M25 was Rmb1,362 million, up 412% YoY; 3Q25 net profit was Rmb467 million, up 86% YoY and 1% QoQ [1] - **Gross Profit (GP)**: 3Q25 GP was Rmb1,130 million, up 28% YoY but down 9% QoQ [1] Sales and Production Data - **Sales Volume**: 3Q25 rare earth raw materials sales volume increased by 38% YoY [2] - **Production Figures**: - Rare earth oxides: 6,939 tons, up 63% YoY - Rare earth salts: 38,635 tons, up 14% YoY - Rare earth metals: 12,197 tons, up 24% YoY [2] Margin Analysis - **GP Margin**: 3Q25 GP margin was 10%, down 0.4 percentage points YoY and down 3 percentage points QoQ, attributed to product-mix adjustments with increased share of lanthanum and cerium products [3] Inventory and Cash Flow - **Inventory Levels**: Inventory decreased by 12% QoQ to Rmb14 billion, accounting for 29% of total assets, down from 34% at the end of 1H25 [4] - **Free Cash Flow (FCF)**: 9M25 FCF was Rmb1,750 million, with 3Q FCF at Rmb1,472 million, up 45% YoY and 372% QoQ [5] Valuation Metrics - **Current Trading Multiples**: NRE is trading at 52.9x 2026E P/E and 6.8x 2026E P/B [5] - **Target Price**: Target price set at Rmb72, implying a 35.1% expected share price return [8][11] Risks and Considerations - **Demand Growth**: Risks include slower or faster-than-expected demand growth in downstream applications such as NEVs and wind power [12] - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: Potential impacts from global supply-chain diversification efforts and changes in mining or processing capacity outside of China [12] - **Policy Changes**: Risks from tariffs, trade barriers, and policy adjustments in China affecting supply and profitability [12] - **Technological Substitutes**: Emergence of alternative materials or technologies that could replace rare earth elements [12] Conclusion - The company has shown significant growth in net profit and sales volume, although margins have been impacted by product mix changes. The inventory management strategy appears effective, and the company maintains a positive cash flow. However, various risks related to demand, supply chain, and policy changes could affect future performance. The current valuation suggests a favorable outlook, supported by strong fundamentals and market conditions.

Joining us now to break down the winners and the losers or what we know and what we don't from these negotiations, former assistant US trade representative for China affairs, Jeff Moon. Jeff, it's great to have you here. I mean, look, there seems to be a lot of things that were said, but also a lot of details that are left unsaid.Trump is saying the meeting was amazing. When I look at this, it looks like maybe we're just back to around where we were in August for some of these things. rare earths I get is a ...

Trade War & Negotiation Dynamics - JP Morgan suggests expectations for the US-China trade talks should be tempered, viewing them as another data point in ongoing negotiations [3] - A positive outcome might involve discussions on key issues like fentanyl, soybeans, or rare earths, but a grand bargain is unlikely [4] - Any truce is expected to be temporary, given China's increased leverage since the 2017-2018 trade war [4] - China's development and use of leverage tools, such as the rare earth choke point, necessitate the US administration to offer concessions [4] Strategic Goals & Interdependence - Both the US and China share a long-term goal of reducing their dependence on each other while maintaining strategic choke points and trade relations [5][6] - Neither side wants a harsh decoupling or sharp economic downturn, as both are incentivized to prevent it [8] - The US seeks to reduce its dependence on China for rare earths, while China aims to decrease its reliance on the US for semiconductors and food [6] Market Impact & Outlook - The market can anticipate a muddling through with temporary truces as both countries pursue long-term goals [8] - Both sides recognize a "mutually assured destruction" scenario due to key choke points, incentivizing them to avoid sharp economic or market disruptions [8]

Core Points - The U.S. and Australia have initiated a multi-billion-dollar collaboration to establish a supply chain for critical minerals essential for military and domestic industries [1][2] - A non-binding framework was signed by U.S. President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, focusing on joint investments in mining and processing of critical minerals [2][3] - The agreement includes commitments to streamline permitting processes and implement price floors to protect domestic markets from unfair trade practices [2][3] Financial Commitments - The U.S. and Australia plan to allocate at least $1 billion in financing for critical mineral projects in each country within six months [3] - An additional $8.5 billion pipeline was mentioned as part of the deal, although specific details were not provided [3] Strategic Importance - The urgency to build an independent critical mineral supply chain has increased due to China's tightening export restrictions on rare earths [4] - China is the leading global producer of essential minerals and a significant buyer of Australia's strategic minerals, including 95% of its lithium ore spodumene [4] Market Dynamics - China's overseas mining acquisitions reached a decade-high in 2024, posing a threat to U.S. and global markets [5] - China's market manipulation tactics, such as flooding the market with excess supply, have made it challenging for the U.S. and its allies to compete effectively [6] - Australia is deemed an "indispensable partner" for the U.S. due to its possession of over 40 minerals classified as critical by the U.S. Geological Survey [6]

US-China Trade Relations - The possibility of a meeting between President Trump and President Xi remains uncertain, pending mutual agreement [1][2] - The US expresses willingness to engage in trade talks with China, especially given China's recent measures [2] - The US believes a more balanced trade relationship is needed, as China currently enjoys broader access to the US market than the US has to the Chinese market [10][11] - The US is open to a constructive trading relationship with China, but it must be actively managed [10] Rare Earths and Export Controls - China has implemented new measures on rare earths, raising concerns for the US [3] - China's actions regarding rare earth export controls are viewed as aggressive and disproportionate by the US [4][5] - The US accuses China of expanding controls on rare earths globally, despite a previous agreement to limit them [7] - China's restrictions on rare earths are seen as an attempt to exert economic control [7] - The US has concerns about China potentially using access to semiconductors to gain access to rare earth minerals [14] - The US uses export controls on high-end goods, but China's controls on basic inputs like rare earths are considered broad and indiscriminate [15][16] National Security and Technology - The US prioritizes national security when considering technology exports to China [19] - The US aims to maintain its technological edge and prevent other countries from gaining a competitive advantage [20] - The US government uses inter-agency processes to analyze new technologies and determine appropriate export controls, considering industry input and foreign availability [21]

Geopolitical Strategy - Rare earths were a way for China to signal its willingness to engage in assertive tactics [1] Trade Relations - China is not afraid to "play hardball" in trade relations [1]

US-China Trade Relations & Rare Earths - The US is trying to reduce its dependence on China for rare earths, while China is trying to jumpstart its economy [1] - The US exports rare earths to China, highlighting that the problem is refining, not reserves [3] - A short-term deal between the US and China could involve delaying Chinese controls on rare earth products and resuming US soybean exports to China, but this requires the US to concede something [7] - China may delay implementation of controls on rare earth products but will continue building up that mechanism and could expand to other supply chains like fine chemicals used in drugs [8] Supply Chain Vulnerabilities & Strategies - The US faces a serious long-term challenge across a broad range of supply chains [8] - Working with allies is crucial for the US to counter supply chain vulnerabilities quickly [9] - Australia can help the US on rare earths, and Japan has technology and experience dealing with Chinese embargoes [10] - The US long-term policy should focus on supply chains rather than trade balances and tariffs [11] China's Long-Term Strategy - China has a long-term strategy to build up its production capacity, especially in advanced technology, to exert coercive pressure on other countries [15][16] - China's goal is to become more important globally, allowing it to exert more pressure on the US and other countries [16]