19 January 2026 | 10:59AM HKT Economics Research China: Q4 GDP in line with expectations amid mixed December activity data – First Take Bottom line: Key numbers: GDP: +4.5% yoy in Q4 (GS forecast: +4.5% yoy; Bloomberg consensus: +4.5% yoy), +1.2% quarter-over-quarter sa non-annualized, based on the NBS estimate. Q3: +4.8% yoy, +1.1% quarter-over-quarter sa non-annualized. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other imp ...

Economic Data and Market Reactions - Retail sales were flat in October, slightly below economists' expectations of a 0.1% increase, with analysts suggesting potential distortion due to slow data collection from a recent government shutdown [1][8] - Nonfarm payrolls increased by 64,000 jobs in November, following a decline in October, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% amid economic uncertainty linked to President Trump's trade policies [8] - Investors are anticipating interest rate cuts of at least 58 basis points next year, significantly higher than the 25 basis points indicated by the Federal Reserve [8] Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 302.30 points (0.62%) to 48,114.26, while the S&P 500 lost 16.25 points (0.24%) to 6,800.26, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 54.05 points (0.23%) to 23,111.46 [8] - Eight of the 11 S&P 500 major industry sectors closed down, with energy stocks leading the decline, falling nearly 3%, and crude prices reaching their lowest level since 2021 [5][8] - Health stocks decreased by 1.28%, with Pfizer slipping 3.4% due to forecasts of challenging sales in 2026, and Humana falling 6% after announcing leadership changes [8] Notable Company Movements - Comcast shares rose by 5.4% following speculation about potential involvement from an activist investor [6][8] - B. Riley's stock surged by 53.8% after reporting a profit for the second quarter, contrasting with a loss in the previous year [8] - Nasdaq has submitted paperwork to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for round-the-clock trading of stocks, following similar announcements from the New York Stock Exchange and Cboe Global Markets [6][8] Market Breadth and Trading Volume - On the NYSE, declining issues outnumbered advancers by a ratio of 1.63-to-1, with 127 new highs and 88 new lows recorded [7][8] - The Nasdaq saw 2,064 stocks rise and 2,596 fall, with a declining issues to advancers ratio of 1.26-to-1 [7][8] - Total trading volume on U.S. exchanges was 16.70 billion shares, slightly below the 20-day average of 16.99 billion shares [9]

Market Overview - U.S. stocks traded mostly lower, with the Dow Jones index falling more than 250 points, down 0.52% to 48,164.83, NASDAQ down 0.37% to 22,971.25, and S&P 500 down 0.56% to 6,778.08 [1] - European shares were lower, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 slipping 0.64%, Spain's IBEX 35 Index down 0.69%, London's FTSE 100 down 0.92%, Germany's DAX 40 down 0.85%, and France's CAC 40 declining 0.40% [5] - Asian markets closed lower, with Japan's Nikkei falling 1.56%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng down 1.54%, China's Shanghai Composite down 1.11%, and India's BSE Sensex down 0.63% [6] Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales were flat for October compared to September, down from a revised 0.1% gain in the previous month and below market estimates of 0.1% growth [7] - The U.S. economy added 64,000 jobs in November, compared to a loss of 105,000 in the previous month and above market estimates of a 50,000 increase [9] - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November from 4.3% in the previous month, marking the highest reading since September 2021 [9] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.1% month-over-month to $36.86 in November, compared to a 0.4% rise in the previous month [9] - U.S. business inventories increased 0.2% month-over-month in September, in line with market estimates [9] - The S&P Global flash composite PMI declined to 53 in December, the lowest reading in six months, down from 54.2 in November [2][9] Commodity Market - In commodity news, oil traded down 2.9% to $55.17, while gold traded up 0.5% at $4,357.00 [4] Company News - SRx Health Solutions Inc shares surged 92% to $0.59 after announcing an agreement to acquire EMJ Crypto Technologies [8] - Rezolve AI PLC shares rose 34% to $3.12 following preliminary December revenue results [8] - Cementos Pacasmayo SAA shares increased 48% to $10.25 after Holcim signed an agreement to purchase 50.01% of the company's owner [8] - Zynex Inc shares dropped 53% to $0.31 after entering Chapter 11 court-supervised financial restructuring [8] - Lightwave Logic Inc shares fell 19% to $3.05 after announcing the pricing of an 11.67 million share common stock offering [8] - Navan Inc shares decreased 17% to $12.21 after reporting third-quarter results [8]

CBC team coverage uh this morning involves Steve Leeman as well as Rick Santelli. Rick Santelli, let's go to you. You're standing by at the CME.Let's get straight to the numbers. But Mike Santelli, [music] by the way, is out the NY. But Rick, get the numbers, please.>> Yes. October and November for the big job job jobs report. The only thing is it's not Friday.Here we go. November's number comes in at 64,000. 64,000 on non-farm.And if we look at average hourly earnings, they are up onetenth up onetenth of a ...

CBC team coverage uh this morning involves Steve Leeman as well as Rick Santelli. Rick Santelli, let's go to you. You're standing by at the CME.Let's get straight to the numbers. But Mike Santelli, by the way, is out the NY. But Rick, get the numbers, please.>> Yes. October and November for the big job job jobs report. The only thing is it's not Friday.Here we go. November's number comes in at 64,000. 64,000 on non-farm.And if we look at average hourly earnings, they are up onetenth up onetenth of a percent ...

Core Insights - The five-day shopping period from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday saw 202.9 million U.S. consumers participating, exceeding the National Retail Federation's forecast of 186.9 million and surpassing last year's 197 million shoppers [1][2] Group 1: Shopping Trends - This year's turnout is the largest since the NRF began tracking in 2017, surpassing the previous high of 200.4 million shoppers in 2023 [2] - NRF CEO Matt Shay described the shopping period as a "very, very solid beginning" to the holiday season, indicating strong consumer engagement [2] - Consumers are motivated by sales and promotions, with 51% purchasing clothing and accessories, followed by toys (32%), books and media (28%), and gift cards (26%) [7][8] Group 2: Consumer Spending Outlook - NRF anticipates holiday spending to reach a record between $1.1 trillion to $1.2 trillion from November 1 to December 31, marking the first time it exceeds $1 trillion [5] - This represents a projected increase of 3.7% to 4.2% from the previous year, although it is a slight decrease from last year's 4.3% growth rate [6] - Despite economic uncertainties, consumers are expected to prioritize holiday spending, with many families cutting back on other areas to maintain holiday budgets [3][8] Group 3: Online vs. In-Store Shopping - A total of 129.5 million consumers shopped in stores, reflecting a 3% year-over-year increase, while online shopping surged by 9% with 134.9 million participating [9] - Online spending on Cyber Monday reached $14.25 billion, a 7.1% increase year-over-year, contributing to a total of $44.2 billion spent online during the five-day period, which is a 7.7% increase [10][11] Group 4: Labor Market and Retail Hiring - Retailers are expected to hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers this year, the lowest in at least 15 years, indicating a cautious approach to labor costs [4]

Consumer sentiment and retail sales have decoupled https://t.co/alFN8zboaQ ...

Core Insights - Burlington Stores, Inc. reported mixed quarterly results, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.80, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $1.64, while quarterly sales of $2.710 billion (+7% year over year) fell short of the expected $2.739 billion [1] - Comparable store sales increased by 1% [1] Sales and Traffic Trends - CEO Michael O'Sullivan noted a significant drop in store traffic after the back-to-school period due to unseasonably warm temperatures, but indicated a recovery to mid-single-digit comparable sales growth in mid-October as temperatures cooled, which has continued into early November [2] - The company raised its 2025 adjusted EPS outlook to $9.69–$9.89 from a previous range of $9.19–$9.59, exceeding the consensus estimate of $9.52 [2] - Burlington now anticipates total sales growth of about 8% for the full year, up from the prior expectation of 7%-8% [2] Stock Performance and Analyst Ratings - Following the earnings announcement, Burlington shares increased by 5.3%, trading at $262.83 [3] - Analysts have adjusted their price targets for Burlington, with Evercore ISI Group lowering its target from $370 to $335 while maintaining an Outperform rating [5] - Morgan Stanley, Barclays, TD Cowen, and JP Morgan also maintained their ratings (Overweight or Buy) but reduced their price targets, with the lowest target now at $310 and the highest at $316 [5]

Market Overview - The US stock market showed mixed signals on November 25, with the Dow Jones up 0.6%, the S&P 500 flat, and the Nasdaq down 0.3%, indicating ongoing concerns about high valuations in AI and tech stocks [1] - Despite a tech rally on Monday, all three indexes remain on track for monthly losses as investors weigh retail sales, inflation data, and the Federal Reserve's next move [1] Technology Sector - Tech shares led market volatility, with Nvidia shares falling over 4% after reports that Meta plans to invest billions in AI chips from Google, signaling increased competition [2][7] - Other tech giants like Alphabet and Alibaba performed well, supported by strong earnings and AI-driven growth momentum, which reassured investors about their resilience amid rising competition [8] Federal Reserve and Rate Cut Expectations - The market is pricing in over an 80% chance of a Fed rate cut at the December meeting, with Fed Governor Chris Waller advocating for easing to support economic growth [3][10] - A potential rate cut is viewed as beneficial for growth stocks, particularly in technology and consumer discretionary sectors, although uncertainty remains regarding the timing and scope of such a move [12] Retail Sales and Consumer Spending - Retail sales data presents a mixed picture, with September sales rising only 0.2%, below forecasts, while October data showed a rebound with sales excluding autos and gas up 0.6% month-over-month and 5% year-over-year, driven by online and food store sales [4][14] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.3%, raising the annual rate to 2.7%, indicating moderate but persistent price pressures [15] Earnings Season - The earnings season is gaining attention, with Kohl's and Best Buy reporting this week, providing insights into consumer demand ahead of the holiday season [5][21] - Investors are closely monitoring these results to gauge spending trends and assess whether consumers are holding back [5] Energy Market - Energy markets experienced significant declines, with Brent crude falling 1.9% to below $62 per barrel and WTI dropping 2% to below $58, both down nearly 5% over the past five sessions [17][22] - Natural gas prices also fell, with futures down 5.9% to trade under $4.40 per MMBtu, influenced by peace-talk progress and strong US production [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends and developments in the cryptocurrency market, highlighting the impact of regulatory changes and market dynamics on investment opportunities and risks in the sector [3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant volatility, with prices fluctuating due to regulatory scrutiny and market sentiment [3]. - Recent data indicates a surge in institutional interest in cryptocurrencies, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - Regulatory changes are becoming more pronounced, with governments around the world implementing stricter guidelines for cryptocurrency transactions and exchanges [3]. - The evolving regulatory landscape is expected to influence investor confidence and market stability in the near future [3].