Core Viewpoint - Asian currencies are consolidating against the dollar, but may face pressure due to diminishing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which could reduce risk appetite [1] Group 1 - Asian currencies showed stability in the morning session against the dollar [1] - The potential for Fed rate cuts is fading, which may negatively impact market sentiment [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on multi-asset investment strategies and their performance in 2025, with insights into market conditions and investor sentiment heading into 2026 [3][4][21]. Performance Insights - A global multi-asset portfolio delivered a return close to 20% in USD for 2025, marking the 90th percentile of performance since 1950 [4][5]. - US multi-asset funds had an average performance of 17.2%, while European funds lagged at 5.2%, indicating a significant disparity in returns [14][15]. - The 3-year rolling annualized return for the world portfolio proxy was 14% at the end of 2025, following two strong years of recovery from previous drawdowns [4][14]. Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment at the start of 2026 is bullish, with 90% of European respondents expecting positive global equity returns, the highest recorded [21][24]. - The Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) has shifted above 1 for the first time since 2021, indicating increased risk-taking among investors [21][30]. Valuation Concerns - Elevated equity valuations may limit returns in the medium term, but favorable macro conditions could mitigate this constraint in the near term [33][40]. - US equity valuations are high, but the S&P 500 still delivered above-average returns in 2025, primarily driven by earnings growth [33][40]. Drawdown Risks - Current macro conditions are favorable, reducing the risk of a significant equity drawdown, although elevated valuations and bullish sentiment could lead to smaller corrections [51][53]. - The probability of a bear market (>20% S&P 500 drawdown) has recently declined, but geopolitical shocks and AI disruption concerns remain potential triggers for corrections [53][54]. Geopolitical Risks - Robust portfolio construction is essential to protect against geopolitical shocks, which can lead to increased volatility [61][62]. - Historical data suggests that equities often recover strongly after geopolitical uncertainties ease [63][64]. Bond Market Dynamics - Bonds may provide a smaller buffer during equity drawdowns compared to historical norms, with equity/bond correlations expected to be more negative in 2026 [69][71]. - The current environment of higher inflation volatility and fiscal policy concerns may lead to lower Sharpe ratios for bonds [74]. US Asset Dominance - US assets continue to dominate global benchmarks, comprising over 60% of global equity and nearly 50% of bond benchmarks [75][76]. - Investors are increasingly focusing on FX hedging and diversifying into assets negatively correlated with the Dollar [79][80]. Diversification Opportunities - Attractive diversification strategies include regional and style diversification, selective commodity exposure, and allocations to alternatives like hedge funds and private markets [92][100]. - Defensive indices have outperformed during periods of volatility, particularly in the context of AI disruption fears [95][96]. Carry Trade Opportunities - Current low risk premia indicate limited opportunities for carry trades, with increased vulnerability to growth and rate shocks [101][102]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the multi-asset investment landscape as of early 2026.

Joining us now is Tom Lee, Funstrat, uh, head of research. I'm not going to say that u that that you didn't call this Tom because it was the beginning of the year you were talking about did you use the word uh speed bumps or volatility or I don't know what it was, but you also said that it a lot of it could be based on things coming out of Washington that the market was going to be held hostage of that to some extent. Is is this worse than you expected or pretty much uh what you were thinking.>> Um well and ...

Group 1: Silver Market Activity - Silver experienced extreme volatility on January 26, with nearly $2 trillion in market cap changing hands within 14 hours [1] - During the session, silver's market value increased by approximately $500 billion from 9:00 AM ET to 1:00 PM ET, followed by a drop of about $950 billion, and then a recovery of another $500 billion by 10:30 PM ET [1][2] - Spot silver prices surged to record levels, trading between $110 and $117 per ounce, driven by a weaker US dollar, global tensions, and broader market stress [3] Group 2: Bitcoin Market Performance - Bitcoin lagged behind silver during the same period, declining about 3% over the past week and remaining below the key $90,000 level, with its current market cap around $1.76 trillion [4] - The market cap of Bitcoin reached $2.49 trillion during an early October 2025 rally but has since decreased [4] Group 3: Investment Insights - Over a 20-year span, investors holding gold and silver would have earned approximately 10.6% per year, while silver's return was only 4.5% last year, which has since improved [5] - Metals and cryptocurrencies often experience significant gains in short bursts, indicating that investors should exercise patience [5] Group 4: Market Focus - The trading community is focused on January 28, referred to as "Super Wednesday," with attention on U.S. crude oil inventory data and the Federal Reserve's rate decision, which could impact inflation expectations and overall market risk appetite [6] - WTI crude futures were last traded at $60.73 per barrel, down 0.72% on the day, with a notable decrease in open interest [6][7]

So, Bitcoin is bouncing off Sunday's one-mon low near 86,000. But the real question is whether this is stabilization or just a pause before the next leg lower. Now, options have gotten a bit more upbeat into Friday's options expiration.The most concentrated interest is up at that $100,000 call and 90K is the key floor that traders are watching into the end of the week. But zoom out and the crypto trade is still very fragile. Bitcoin is on track for a fourth straight negative monthly close, a stretch that we ...

Cryptocurrency Market Overview - Bitcoin experienced a rally, reaching a 2-month high of $97,860, with gains exceeding 10% for the year, influenced by geopolitical tensions and an upcoming vote on a cryptocurrency bill [3] - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by 0.75% to $3.28 trillion [6] - Bitcoin's open interest rose by 2.76%, indicating increased speculative activity [5] Price Movements - Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.23% to $96,617.34, while Ethereum (ETH) fell by 0.11% to $3,330.89, XRP decreased by 1.89% to $2.12, and Dogecoin (DOGE) dropped by 1.84% to $0.1455 [2] - Notable gainers included Dash (+42.65%), Pirate Chain (+39.17%), and Internet Computer (+34.47%) [6] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment shifted from "Neutral" to "Greed," as indicated by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index [5] - Over $380 million was liquidated from the cryptocurrency market in the last 24 hours, primarily due to short liquidations [4] Stock and Oil Market Performance - The stock market saw declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.09%, S&P 500 down 0.53%, and Nasdaq Composite down 1% [7] - Oil prices fell by 2% to $60.66 per barrel amid geopolitical developments [7] Future Projections for Bitcoin - Analysts suggest that Bitcoin may face strong resistance above the $100,000 level, with potential upward movement towards $120,000–130,000 if that ceiling is breached [8] - The upward trend in Bitcoin's price is noted, with expectations of hitting $100,000 within the week [8]

Core Insights - Bitcoin ETFs experienced significant inflows of over $1 billion in the first two trading days of 2026, indicating a temporary resurgence in investor risk appetite, which has since diminished due to a three-day outflow streak [1][2] Group 1: ETF Performance - The 11 U.S.-listed spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of $1.128 billion over the past three days, nearly erasing the initial net inflow of $1.16 billion [2] - Year-to-date inflows for Bitcoin ETFs are nearly flat, suggesting a lack of conviction among institutional investors, as early optimism has been replaced by a more cautious outlook [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Macro conditions have tightened risk appetite, with traders seeking positive macroeconomic cues, leading to a risk-averse sentiment in the crypto market [4] - Bitcoin's price has dropped from highs above $94,600 to lows below $89,300, reflecting the broader risk-off sentiment that has affected both crypto and equity markets [4] Group 3: Upcoming Economic Data - Market volatility is expected to increase following the release of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which is anticipated to show a job addition of 55,000 in December, down from November's 64,000 [5][6] - A softer labor market could support risk assets, while resilient employment data may keep crypto and broader markets within a range [7]

🔥 $BTC looks alive again, but the next move will not be random.Macro liquidity, risk appetite and capital rotation are lining up for a major decision point.We mapped out the possible paths.Full report inside.https://t.co/WvOsjMNYYB ...

Market Overview - Stocks are experiencing a rise, with Wall Street on track for a fifth consecutive day of gains as hopes for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut increase, leading to a return of risk appetite across technology, cryptocurrency, and commodities [1] - Traders now estimate an 88% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 10, up from 50% the previous week [1] Major Indices Performance - The S&P 500 increased by 0.4% to 6,840, just 1% below its all-time high, marking its strongest five-day rally since May [2] - The Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.6% to 25,340, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 300 points, trading near 47,730, aiming for a record-high close [2] Sector Performance - Intel Corp. led the S&P 500 with a nearly 8% increase as dip-buying returned to previously beaten-down tech stocks [2] - Crypto-related stocks saw significant intraday gains, with Bitcoin stabilizing near $90,000; Circle Internet Group Inc. rose by 10%, Coinbase Global Inc. by 3.5%, and Strategy Inc. by 2.2% [3] - Metals markets continued their rally, with silver surging nearly 5% to an all-time high of $55.80, and year-to-date silver prices are up 93%, on track for the best year since 1979 [4] - Gold prices increased by 1% to $4,200, while copper gained 2.5% to $5.30 per pound, reflecting a 31% increase year-to-date, the strongest performance since 2010 [4] Energy Commodities - Natural gas prices at the Henry Hub facility jumped 4.5% to $4.80 per million British thermal units, reaching a new three-year high [5] - Crude oil prices rose by 1.5% as market sentiment adjusted following earlier losses, amid cooling optimism regarding a Russia-Ukraine peace deal [5] ETF Performance - The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF rose by 0.5% to $628.02, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied by 0.7% to $477.49 [8] - The tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust Series increased by 0.6% to $617.91, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund outperformed with a 1.3% gain [8] Top Gainers and Losers - Top gainers included Circle Internet Group Inc. (+11.4%), Intel Corp. (+8.68%), and Coherent Corp. (+7.54%) [7] - Notable losers included AngloGold Ashanti plc (-5.07%), RLI Corp. (-3.15%), and Eli Lilly and Co. (-2.80%) [9]

Core Viewpoint - The potential end of the longest US government shutdown is leading to increased selling in safe-haven assets like Treasuries, with yields on 10-year debt rising to near 4.15% following a procedural vote in the Senate [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Global markets reacted positively to the Senate's procedural vote, viewing it as a breakthrough that could lead to the end of the shutdown, which would provide investors with access to important economic data [2]. - Improved risk appetite is noted, with Treasury yields increasing as moderate Democrats in the Senate support moving forward with the bill, suggesting a possible government operation until January [3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - An end to the shutdown could restore funding to federal agencies until the end of January, allowing for the release of delayed economic data on inflation and jobs, which are critical for market assessments [4]. - Historical data suggests that the September employment report could be among the first data released post-shutdown, potentially showing a significant rebound in non-farm payrolls [5]. Group 3: Broader Economic Outlook - A reopening of government services is expected to refocus markets on the underlying strength of the economy, with resilient earnings growth and a loosening monetary backdrop contributing to a positive outlook [6].