Market Trends & Economic Outlook - Rising oil prices due to sanctions on Venezuela and potential sanctions on Russia could impact the Fed's easing path, especially if it affects CPI data [1][2][3] - Rotation is expected to continue, with capital moving from high multiple mega-cap winners to small caps, cyclicals, and international markets [4][5] - Easy monetary policy from the Fed, including the end of quantitative tightening and rate cuts, along with fiscal policy, will likely support this trend [5][13] Investment Opportunities & Sector Analysis - Small caps, particularly the S&P 600, are favored due to undervaluation and historical outperformance during rate-cutting cycles [5][7] - Fiscal policy and tax bills are expected to benefit R&D-intensive small caps, but high-quality companies with strong balance sheets and consistent cash flows are preferred [8] - Financials are viewed optimistically, especially regional banks, with strong fundamental backdrop and potential for further growth [9] - Financials are experiencing the second strongest earning season in the S&P 500, with 25% year-over-year earnings growth expected, driven by steepening yield curve and capital markets activity [10] - Banks, insurance, and banks tied to capital markets activity are attractive within the financials sector [11] IPO Market - Increased liquidity and easy monetary policy are creating a positive environment for the IPO market [13] - The upcoming Medline IPO, the largest of the year, and the resolution of the government shutdown are expected to release a bottleneck of IPOs [12] Consumer Spending & Tax Refunds - Anticipated tax refunds in the range of $100 billion to $150 billion next year, or $1,000 to $2,000 per household, are expected to boost consumer-sensitive sectors [14][16] - Consumer discretionary, home builders, and banks are expected to benefit from the influx of tax refunds in early 2026 [15][16]

Market Trends & Dynamics - Expectation of increased dispersion in MAG7 stocks as the AI trade shifts focus [1] - Broadening market participation is likely to continue, albeit unevenly [1] - Market breadth, measured by the percentage of S&P constituents outperforming the index, increased from 17% over the past 6 months to 61% over the past month [2] - Small caps show the best improvement in breadth relative to 50-day and 200-day moving averages among the three major indexes (Russell 2000, S&P, and NASDAQ) [3] - The economy is showing signs of slowing, a trend expected to persist into 2026 [5] Earnings & Multiples - Earnings have been driving market performance since August, offsetting flat multiple expansion [6] - Earnings trajectory needs to remain strong for another robust year in 2026 [6] Small Cap Analysis - Unprofitable stocks within the Russell 2000, representing approximately 40% of the index, have increased by 62% since April 8th, in contrast to the profitable stocks which are up 29% [8] - Recently, profitable stocks within small caps are showing more acceleration [9] - Recommendation to reduce exposure to unprofitable, lower-quality segments within small caps and increase exposure to higher-quality, profitable segments [9]

Year-to-date, the nearby daily chart of the Russell 2000 shows that the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has served as both support and resistance. After a brief dip under the SMA in early November, the Russell 2000 has come back strong. Reaching levels that are within striking distance of all new highs.Over the past few years, we've all watched mega-cap stocks, especially the AI giants, dominate the market, leaving small caps in the dust and pushing valuation gaps to extremes we haven't seen in decades. ...

Market Trends - The rapid increase in small-cap stocks is driven by declining interest rates and economic expansion [1]

Fed Policy & Market Impact - The Fed's 25 basis point rate cut was largely expected, but the dovish messaging, highlighting concerns about labor market weakness and potential overstatement of non-farm payroll numbers by approximately 60,000 jobs, surprised the market [1] - The Fed acknowledged the need to start treasury bill purchases at $40 billion per month, signaling continued liquidity support, which is seen as positive for assets like gold and Bitcoin [1] - Equities reacted positively, with small caps and transports rising, indicating a shift towards cyclical, pro-inflation trades, while growth stocks underperformed value stocks [2] Bitcoin & Crypto - Bitcoin's chart looks weak, but there are buy signals, with expectations of a surge back to $100,000 if it can get above $93,000, and Ethereum is outperforming Bitcoin [2] - The long-term view is that Bitcoin will benefit from the AI-driven hyper-productivity growth, as AI models compete with each other, diminishing moats and emphasizing adaptability, making Bitcoin a compelling large-cap growth investment [6][26] AI & Technology - The progress in AI models, particularly from GPT-4 to GPT-5, is based on advancements in reasoning and reinforcement learning, rather than solely on hardware, but the Blackwell deployment is crucial for visual language models and physical world applications like robotics and robo-taxis [3] - The consensus in San Francisco is that recursive self-improvement in AI will be reached in the next 2-4 years, leading to hyper-productivity and computers solving problems in energy and biology [5] - Open-source AI models are gaining traction, offering faster and cheaper solutions, but Blackwell chips provide a significant performance jump, potentially favoring closed-source models in the long run [5][6] Economic Transition & Investment Strategies - The US economy is transitioning from analog/electronic to digital, causing disruption and "shedding skin," with small business bankruptcies at a record high, but also creating opportunities for individuals to create income streams online [8] - The focus is shifting from software to hardware, with opportunities in energy, transportation, and small-cap companies making LiDAR and sensors, as the physical world is still essential to fuel technology [9] - The IPO market is expected to be historically active in the next 12-18 months, with companies like Anthropic, XAI, OpenAI, and SpaceX going public, requiring capital to build out physical infrastructure [8] Risks & Opportunities in 2026 - While a major recession is considered low probability, 20-30% market corrections are expected in the next 5 years due to events impacting profit margins and productivity [9] - A potential risk is the capex hole, where hyperscalers are spending heavily on infrastructure but not yet seeing corresponding revenue increases, potentially impacting valuations [9] - Embodied AI, starting with robo-taxis, is a major theme for the coming year, creating opportunities in hardware, batteries, and commodities like copper [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17]

Market Rotation & Investment Strategy - The market is experiencing a rotational bull market, with profit-taking expected in stocks like Oracle, Nvidia, and Broadcom [2] - Piper Sandler suggests leaning into the rotation towards financials and industrials [1] - Raymond James emphasizes the importance of balance, advising to continue investing in the AI trade while exploring opportunities in healthcare, energy, and financials [8] Sector Analysis & Opportunities - Energy sector has been upgraded, and healthcare is showing signs of strength [3] - Regional banks are considered a key overweight for the coming year due to improving net interest margins with lower rates [8][12][13] - Medical devices are attractive due to the aging population and increasing chronic diseases [14] - Biotechnology is also promising due to increased M&A activity driven by big pharmaceutical companies needing to replenish their drug pipelines facing patent cliffs in the next 3 to 5 years [14][15] Economic Fundamentals & Sustainability - The sustainability of the rotation into small caps and energy is linked to resilient economic fundamentals [6] - The Federal Reserve's optimistic economic outlook supports the outlook for small-cap companies, benefiting from lower rates [7]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks is declining, leading to a market rotation towards small and micro-cap stocks, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment and risk appetite [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The "Magnificent 7" stocks have struggled recently, with some like Nvidia facing challenges, while others like Apple reach all-time highs [2][3]. - There is a noticeable rotation of investment from large-cap tech stocks to small-cap and micro-cap stocks, such as those in the Russell 2000, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [3][4]. - The current market sentiment appears to be bullish as investors are moving into riskier assets, including precious metals, as part of a seasonal trend [4][5][6]. Group 2: Precious Metals Outlook - Gold has reached a 7-week high, and silver is hitting record highs, indicating strong performance in the precious metals market [7]. - A significant warning sign is noted when precious metals outperform the stock market for an extended period, reminiscent of conditions before past financial crises [9][10]. - Predictions suggest a potential 15% increase in gold prices, targeting around $5,175, and silver could rise to between $68 and $82 [10][11]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The current environment is seen as a favorable trading opportunity for precious metals, with expectations of explosive price movements in the near term [12][14]. - Homebuilders are also expected to see a modest rally of about 6% as investors seek familiar sectors during uncertain times [17][18]. - The strategy involves identifying trends and managing positions based on market movements rather than attempting to predict market tops or bottoms [20][21]. Group 4: Long-term Economic Outlook - A severe market correction is anticipated in 2026, with predictions of a significant downturn in equities exceeding 20%, while precious metals are expected to benefit from this shift as capital flows out of stocks [24][26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The Russell 2000 index is positioned to potentially be the second-best-performing index in the U.S. stock exchanges as 2025 approaches, driven by a significant shift towards small-cap stocks due to the Federal Reserve's easing cycle [1]. Interest Rate Impact - The Federal Reserve has reduced the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range of 3.5-3.75%, down from a high of 5.25-5.5% in 2023 during a tightening cycle aimed at controlling post-pandemic inflation [2]. Small Business Financing - Lower interest rates are favorable for small businesses, particularly as the period from mid-December to early March is historically strong for the Russell 2000 due to tax-loss harvesting and increased investor risk appetite at the start of the new year [3]. Top Performers in Russell 2000 - **Celcuity (CELC)**: - Stock Price: $100 - YTD Return: +695% - Market Cap: $4.71 billion - The company focuses on cellular analysis and precision oncology, experiencing significant stock price increases due to breakthrough clinical trials [5][6]. - **Better Home & Finance (BETR)**: - Stock Price: $48 - YTD Return: +442% - Market Cap: $794.72 million - Operates as an AI-powered mortgage lender and fintech company, with projected annual sales growth of over 50% this year and 67% next year [9][12]. - **Cogent Biosciences (COGT)**: - Stock Price: $40 - YTD Return: +413% - Market Cap: $5.58 billion - Focused on precision therapies for genetically defined diseases, with strong clinical progress on its lead drug, bezuclastinib [13][14]. Earnings Projections - Celcuity is expected to report a loss of -$3.86 per share in FY25 and -$4.05 in FY26, despite positive EPS revisions [8]. - Better Home's EPS revisions for FY25 and FY26 have slightly decreased, indicating potential short-term momentum loss [12]. - Cogent is projected to have a narrower adjusted loss of -$1.77 per share in FY26, with modestly higher EPS revisions in the last 60 days [14]. Investment Considerations - The strong performance of the Russell 2000 suggests that these top-performing stocks may be worth monitoring, although better buying opportunities may arise in the future [16].

My next guest isn't worried. He does say 2026 will be the year of a proud bowl, not a stampeding one. Joining us now is Chris Heisy, the chief investment officer for Mel and Bank of America private bank. Chris, I'm not that up on my western metaphors. So, please uh explain what you see happening here. >> Yeah, it's great to be with you, Kelly. I I would say this. A proud bull is one that looks back and says, "Look at all the hard work we did not just in the last 12 months, but really almost the last 36 mont ...

Gains in Chinese small caps have spurred global investors to seek shares not available via a Hong Kong transaction channel, according to UBS https://t.co/vNOqivOwC3 ...