With the Federal Reserve moving away from its prior efforts to tighten money supply, the measure theoretically provides relief for many economic entities. Under basic economic principles, reduced costs of borrowing encourage capital expenditures, investments and other growth-centered activities. However, one of the more obvious beneficiaries is the housing market.Earlier this year, the U.S. housing market inked the slowest month of May for existing-home sales since 2009, underscoring the harsh reality behin ...

Europe Credit Research 04 November 2025 J P M O R G A N Sector Review How should investors position into 1H26? In our view, investors are not just suffering from recession fatigue but full blown recession exhaustion. We have had four scares in as many years - including the energy crisis after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the regional banking crisis in 2023 with the collapse of SVB and Credit Suisse, the 'Sahm rule' trigger in 2024 with the US unemployment rate rising by 0.6% from the lows, and t ...

The yield on the 10-year note finished November 7, 2025 at 4.11%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.55% and the 30-year note ended at 4.70%. The chart below overlays the daily performance of several Treasury bonds, starting from the pre-recession equity market peaks, along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007. This next table shows the highs and lows of yields and the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007. A Long-Term Look at the 10-Year Treasury Yield Here is a long-term view of the 10-year yield ...

Group 1: Treasury Yields and Economic Indicators - The 10-year note yield reached 4.11% and the 2-year note yield reached 3.60%, marking their highest levels in nearly three weeks and over a month respectively [1] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is considered a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread turning negative before recessions [3][4] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [5][7] Group 2: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs for banks, which in turn affects mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed holding rates steady [8] - The latest Freddie Mac survey indicates the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.17%, the lowest level in over a year [8] Group 3: Historical Context and False Positives - Historical analysis shows a false positive in 1998 where the 10-2 spread went negative without leading to a recession, contrasting with multiple instances before the 2009 recession [4][6] - The 10-3 month spread also indicates a similar pattern of false positives and negative spreads prior to recessions, with lead times ranging from 34 to 69 weeks [6]

Group 1: CEO and Board Relationship - The relationship between the CEO and the board of directors is crucial in today's economic uncertainty and competitive landscape [1][2] - The National Association of Corporate Directors released a playbook aimed at enhancing trust and collaboration between boards and CEOs [2][3] - Key strategies for building trust include defining roles, enhancing communication, and prioritizing the CEO's well-being [3][5] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The ongoing federal government shutdown is expected to negatively impact the economy, potentially suppressing Q4 GDP growth by up to 0.5% [8][10] - Inflation data for September showed a 3% increase year-over-year, with consumer sentiment dropping to a score of 53.6, reflecting concerns similar to those during high inflation periods [9][10] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to discuss a potential quarter-point rate cut, with 96.7% of analysts expecting this move [11] Group 3: Succession Planning - Legacy CEOs often resist discussing succession planning, which can lead to challenges in leadership transitions [19][21] - Effective succession planning should involve identifying potential successors and creating a clear transition plan [23][24] - The internal talent pipeline may be weak under legacy CEOs, necessitating a more objective approach to succession planning [25][26]

Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index indicated a slight cooling of inflation in September, with core inflation rising by 3%, down from 3.1% in the previous month, and a month-over-month increase of 0.2% after a 0.3% rise in the two preceding months [1] - Job growth in the private sector totaled 157,000 from May to August, with healthcare adding 249,000 jobs, while other sectors combined lost 92,000 jobs [3] - The average job growth for September was reported at just 13,000, with ADP indicating a decline of 32,000 in private payroll employment [4] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges in making monetary policy decisions due to the government shutdown, which has delayed the release of critical job data [5][7] - Fed officials are expected to cut the benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point for the second time this year, despite the lack of official job data [6][10] - Policymakers have indicated a median estimate of two more rate cuts for the year, with markets anticipating a cut this week and potentially another in December [20][21] Labor Market Insights - The labor market is showing signs of softening, with concerns that it may not recover soon, as indicated by various data sources [2][9] - Delinquencies in subprime auto loans have raised concerns about the overall health of the economy, although some analysts do not see this as an early sign of a financial crisis [14][15] - Analysts suggest that the Fed needs to be cautious about inflation numbers, as persistent inflation could complicate future monetary policy decisions [12][19]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting thorough due diligence before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1] Group 1 - The content includes general news and personal analysis intended for educational and research purposes [1] - It highlights that the information provided does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1] - The article warns that the information may not be accurate or provided in real-time, and prices may be sourced from market makers rather than exchanges [1] Group 2 - The website discusses complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1] - It encourages users to perform their own research and understand the risks involved before investing in any financial instruments [1] - The article states that FX Empire does not endorse any third-party services and is not liable for any losses incurred from using the information provided [1]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing significant growth, with a reported 4% growth rate according to the Atlanta Fed, while global economic performance is lagging behind [2][4][10] - Commodity prices, including groceries, energy, and other essentials, are declining, indicating a potential deflationary trend despite expectations of tariff-induced inflation [1][2][4] Federal Reserve Policies - There is a call for a change in the Federal Reserve's management and operating framework to better align with the current economic conditions and support Main Street rather than just Wall Street [3][5][6] - The Fed's current policies are seen as counterproductive, contributing to stagflation, and there is a suggestion to lower the target interest rate from 4% to 2% to stimulate the housing market and overall economic activity [8][10] Government Policies Impact - The policies of the current administration are credited with driving economic growth and lowering prices, contrasting with the previous administration's approach [4][10][12] - A strong emphasis is placed on the need for coordination between government policies and the Federal Reserve to avoid conflicting objectives that could hinder economic progress [12]

Singapore, Singapore, October 23rd, 2025, FinanceWire FBS, a leading global broker, has released a new market analysis highlighting how financial markets are adapting to the ongoing US government shutdown that began in early October 2025. With key economic data, including CPI, NFP, and inflation reports, temporarily frozen, the Federal Reserve is operating without its usual indicators, leaving traders to interpret markets on their own. According to FBS analysts, this rare information blackout hasn’t remov ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the gold market, highlighting the impact of U.S. economic policies, global economic conditions, and market sentiment on gold prices and investment strategies [2][29]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices reached a new high of $4,378.69 but fell by 1.77% ($76.62) last Friday, despite a 5.8% increase over the week [2][29]. - Year-to-date returns for gold stand at 61.8%, and returns from the end of 2022 to last Friday are at 133%, indicating a significant decline in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar over the past two years [2][29]. - Bitcoin experienced a 7.8% drop from its peak last week and has declined by 10.6% over the past three months [2][29]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - There are concerns that short-term gold and silver prices may have peaked, but during a bull market, corrections can present buying opportunities [2][29]. - The sentiment in the market is influenced by fears regarding the health of U.S. regional banks, leading to a sell-off in bank stocks and profit-taking in gold and silver futures [2][29]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The expectation is that the U.S. will continue to lower interest rates next year, which is seen as favorable for gold prices [3][30]. - The article suggests that global economic conditions are likely to worsen, particularly outside of China, with signs of stagflation becoming more apparent [5][30]. - Despite increased retail demand for gold and silver, the article posits that retail investors may not have sufficient capital to drive prices significantly higher [5][30]. Group 4: CFTC Data Summary - As of September 23, net long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 1.1% to 493 million, while net long positions in COMEX silver increased by 5.1% to 6,231 million [6][10]. - The net long position in platinum increased by 24.8% to 28 million, while net long positions in copper turned positive after a significant decline [13][15]. Group 5: Market Indicators - The gold-to-silver ratio, a measure of market sentiment, increased by 2.5% to 81.942, with a year-to-date decline of 9.8% [26]. - The ratio of gold prices to North American gold mining stocks has risen by 2.13% over the past two weeks, indicating a potential divergence in market performance [20][22]. Group 6: Future Considerations - The article raises concerns about the potential for inflation to resurge if the U.S. begins to lower interest rates, posing a challenge for the Federal Reserve [34][29]. - The future trajectory of gold prices will depend on the interplay between U.S. monetary policy and global economic stability [34][29].