Given the rise of online investing and commission-free trading, institutional money is no longer the only big player in the market. Retail investors have become a force to be reckoned with. Many investors of all kinds now monitor sentiment among the retail crowd, which often trades much differently than institutions. Retail investors tend to invest on a longer-term basis and are more likely to buy the dip during a big sell-off. According to The Motley Fool's 2026 Investor Outlook and Predictions Report, ...

GDP came in an abysmal 1.4% here in the states. Now, previously it was a 4.4% and of course the administration was bragging up and down the street about how much it was. The expectation was that it would cool a little bit to 2.5% but unfortunately we saw a major drag down to 1.4%.So unfortunately for the economic it is growth it is slowing. The next one the inflation a reduction in or a inflation is actually uh increasing a little bit. So we can have the inflation here at core PCE last time was 0.2% expecta ...

Stagflation may be upon us soon with A.I. wrecking the employment landscape and bitcoin and crypto markets making a band of mixed signals thanks to Trump and his tariffs CONTINUING post supreme court ruling. The links below may include affiliate links, which means I may receive a commission at no cost to you if you make a purchase through a link. You DO NOT have to use the links but you will not receive any bonus if offered. Not investment advice. Crypto investing and trading involves risk of loss. ●▬▬▬▬▬▬C ...

Market Recovery - The US stock market experienced a sharp recovery on February 20, following the Supreme Court's ruling that struck down President Trump's tariffs in a 6-3 decision [1][4] - The S&P 500 index is trading around 6,890, reflecting a 0.45% increase from the previous day's close [1][4] Economic Indicators - Advance Q4 GDP growth slowed to 1.4%, significantly below the consensus estimate of 2.8% [3][8] - Core PCE inflation rose to 3.0% year-over-year, marking its highest level since mid-2025 and indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3][8] Market Reactions - The Supreme Court's decision is viewed as a major deflationary catalyst, alleviating concerns over inflation and supply chain issues [3][8] - The S&P 500's movement above the 6,888 level could pave the way for a potential rise towards 6,959 and the psychological milestone of 7,000 [5] Sector Performance - The technology sector (XLK) led the market rebound, while the energy sector (XLE) saw early gains diminish despite rising oil prices [1] - Alphabet (GOOGL) notably surged by 3.8%, attempting to break free from a bearish trend [1] Oil Market Dynamics - US-Iran tensions are keeping oil prices elevated, with WTI holding above $66 and Brent above $71, which initially supported energy stocks [8]

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Key TakeawaysUS Q4 GDP growth slowed sharply to 1.4%, missing the consensus estimate of 2.8% and marking a significant deceleration from the previous quarter's 4.4%.The Core PCE Price Index rose 3.0% year-over-year in December, coming in hotter than the 2.9% forecast and complicating the Federal Reserve's path toward interest rate cuts.US Equity Futures turned negative following the data release, with Nasdaq 100 Futures leading the decline with a 0.4% drop as investors weighed stagflationary signals.Nvidia ...

The US stock market opened lower on February 17, 2026. It is the first session after Presidents’ Day, with the S&P 500 trading around 6,840 at press time. The Index is down approximately 0.65% (around 44 points) from Friday's high, but up almost 0.58% since today's open. This hints at buyers stepping in across sectors. Persistent "SaaSpocalypse" fears that AI will disrupt traditional software and tech models continue to pressure the market. This makes Information Technology the weakest sector, down 1.5% i ...

Core Insights - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note reached 4.04% on February 13, 2026, marking its lowest level since November 2025, while the 2-year note ended at 3.40%, the lowest since 2022 [1] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is considered a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread being a key focus [1] - Recent trends show that mortgage rates have declined, with the 30-year fixed rate at 6.09%, one of the lowest since October 2024, despite the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) cutting cycle initiated in September 2024 [1] Treasury Yields Overview - The long-term view of the 10-year Treasury yield since 1965 highlights significant economic events, including the 1973 oil embargo that led to stagflation [1] - The 10-2 spread has been continuously negative from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, with the last negative spread recorded on September 5, 2024 [1] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [1] Mortgage Rate Dynamics - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs for banks, typically leading to higher mortgage rates when the FFR increases; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the FFR cutting cycle [1] - The Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey indicates the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.09%, reflecting a downward trend in mortgage rates [1] Market Behavior and Federal Reserve Influence - Fed policy has significantly impacted market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and mortgage rates [1] - The relationship between the 10-year Treasury yield and the S&P 500 is noted, emphasizing the influence of Federal Reserve interventions on market dynamics [1]

Economic Overview - The jobs data for January showed an addition of 130,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate decreasing to 4.3%, both better than expected. However, previous months' job gains were revised down significantly, with 2025's total job additions revised from 584,000 to 181,000, indicating a weaker job market than previously thought [3][4][5]. - Inflation data revealed a Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 2.4% for the headline number and 2.5% for core CPI, which remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, suggesting ongoing inflationary pressures despite a cooler-than-expected report [7][8]. Company Earnings and Stock Performance - Caterpillar (CAT) reported modest earnings growth, with a 3% increase, but has seen a significant rise of 21% since the earnings announcement, driven by capital expenditures from major tech companies [10][12]. - Alphabet is selling debt, including a 100-year bond, to finance its AI expansions, indicating a long-term commitment to AI despite current profitability concerns [13]. - Cisco (CSCO) experienced a 12% drop in stock price post-earnings, despite exceeding earnings guidance, due to margin and cost concerns, although it remains up 19% year-over-year [14]. - Applied Materials (AMAT) saw a 10% increase in stock price following strong earnings and guidance, benefiting from increased spending in the AI sector [15]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The economic landscape is characterized by uncertainty, with AI investments becoming a significant part of capital expenditures, raising questions about the overall economic stability [9]. - Walmart (WMT) is positioned well in the current market, recently reaching a market cap of over $1 trillion, and is expected to provide insights into consumer spending and technological integration in its upcoming earnings report [28][30].

Market Overview - The market is currently focused on the upcoming jobs report, which is expected to introduce volatility, particularly given the historical trends associated with January reports [2][3] - There is a concern that the jobs report may come in lower than expectations, which could be compounded by a potentially hotter inflation report later in the week, raising fears of a stagflationary environment [4][5] Company Earnings: Cloudflare - Cloudflare reported revenue of $614.5 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 33.6%, exceeding street expectations [7] - Adjusted earnings per share came in at 28 cents, slightly above the expected 27 cents, despite some margin compression [8] - The company provided guidance for Q1 revenue between $620 million and $621 million, also above the street's expectation of $613.9 million [8][9] - Analysts have responded positively, with Barclays raising its price target to $250 from $235 and Wells Fargo increasing its target to $270 from $265 [11] Company Earnings: Shopify - Shopify reported a revenue increase of 31% year-over-year, totaling $3.67 billion, surpassing the expected $3.6 billion [13] - Adjusted earnings per share were 49 cents, slightly below the expected 50 cents, but the company is seeing strong merchant sales and payment processing volumes [14] - Shopify's early adoption of AI has contributed to efficiency gains and innovation, indicating a potential narrative shift in the market [15] Market Sentiment and Analyst Commentary - There is a general optimism among analysts regarding the earnings outlook for companies like Cloudflare and Shopify, with most price targets being raised [11][12] - The market is currently experiencing a mixed sentiment, with some concerns about the impact of artificial intelligence on customer retention and job elimination in the cybersecurity sector [11]