March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Friday closed up +0.23 (+1.63%), and May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) closed up +3.30 (+0.82%). Sugar prices rallied sharply on Friday, with NY sugar posting a 1.5-week high.  Sugar prices jumped on Friday after the US Supreme Court struck down President Trump's tariffs, potentially allowing Brazil to export more sugar to the US, which would shrink global supplies.  Friday's weaker dollar ($DXY) was also supportive for most commodity prices, including sugar. Mor ...

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) today is up +0.19 (+1.35%), and May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) closed is up +1.30 (+0.32%). Sugar prices are climbing today, with NY sugar posting a 1.5-week high.  Sugar prices jumped today after the US Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s tariffs, potentially allowing Brazil to export more sugar to the US that would shrink global supplies.  Today’s weaker dollar ($DXY) is also supportive for most commodity prices, including sugar. More News from Barchart ...

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) today is up +0.14 (+1.02%), and May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) is down -2.30 (-0.57%). Sugar prices are mixed today as they consolidate above last week's 5.25-year lows.  Mild short covering emerged in sugar today on signs that the plunge in prices has started to spur demand.  Several Asian sugar exporters reported emerging demand amid post-Ramadan restocking of sugar supplies. More News from Barchart Last Thursday, sugar prices extended their 5-month-long plung ...

Core Insights - Sugar prices have recently increased due to a weaker dollar, leading to short covering in sugar futures [1] - Despite the recent price increase, the overall outlook for sugar remains bearish due to anticipated global surpluses [2][6] Global Sugar Production and Surplus - Global sugar production is expected to exceed demand, with estimates of a 2.74 million metric ton (MMT) surplus for 2025/26 and a 156,000 metric ton surplus for 2026/27 [2] - Covrig Analytics has revised its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 4.7 MMT, up from 4.1 MMT previously [6] Regional Production Updates - Brazil's sugar output for the 2025-26 season has increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 40.222 MMT, with a higher ratio of cane crushed for sugar [3] - India's sugar production for the 2025-26 season is projected to rise by 22% year-on-year to 15.9 MMT, with an overall production estimate increased to 31 MMT [4] Export Dynamics - India is expected to boost sugar exports, with the government potentially allowing additional exports to alleviate domestic supply issues [5] - The Indian government has set a quota for sugar exports, allowing mills to export 1.5 MMT in the 2025/26 season [5]

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are experiencing mixed trends, with New York sugar showing modest gains while London sugar has fallen to a 2.5-month low due to various factors including currency fluctuations and global production levels [1][2]. Group 1: Sugar Production and Export Trends - Brazil's cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season has increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 40.222 million metric tons (MMT), with a higher ratio of cane crushed for sugar [2]. - India's sugar output for the 2025-26 season has surged by 22% year-on-year to 15.9 MMT, prompting the Indian Sugar Mill Association to raise its production estimate to 31 MMT, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year [3]. - The Indian government is considering allowing additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, with a quota of 1.5 MMT set for the 2025-26 season [4]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Price Pressure - The global sugar surplus is projected to increase, with Covrig Analytics raising its estimate for the 2025-26 surplus to 4.7 MMT, which is expected to exert downward pressure on prices [5]. - Brazil's sugar production forecast has been raised to a record 45 MMT for the 2025-26 season, contributing to a bearish outlook for sugar prices [6].

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Tuesday closed down -0.24 (-1.60%).  March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed down -5.30 (-1.24%). Sugar prices retreated on Tuesday amid ramped-up production in India.  On Monday, the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) reported that India's 2025-26 sugar output from Oct 1-Jan 15 is up +22% y/y to 15.9 MMT. More News from Barchart Higher sugar production in Brazil is also bearish for prices after Unica reported last Tuesday that Brazil's cumulative 2025-26 C ...

Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is down -0.02 (-0.13%) while March London ICE white sugar 5 is up +2.00 (+0.47%) indicating mixed sugar prices today [1] Production and Supply - Brazil's cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through mid-December increased by +0.9% year-on-year to 40.158 million metric tons (MMT) with the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rising to 50.91% in 2025/26 from 48.19% in 2024/25 [1] - Covrig Analytics raised its 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate to 4.7 MMT from 4.1 MMT in October, but projected a decrease in the 2026/27 global sugar surplus to 1.4 MMT due to weak prices discouraging production [2] - Consulting firm Safras & Mercado forecasts Brazil's sugar production in 2026/27 to decline by -3.91% to 41.8 MMT from 43.5 MMT expected in 2025/26, with exports expected to fall by -11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [4] - Indian sugar production for 2025-26 surged 25% year-on-year to 11.90 MMT, with the Indian Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raising its production estimate to 31 MMT, up +18.8% year-on-year [5] Export Dynamics - India's food secretary indicated that the government may allow additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, with a quota system for sugar exports introduced in 2022/23 [6] - In November, India's food ministry announced it would permit mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season [6] Market Influences - Expectations of index-related buying of sugar futures for the annual rebalancing of commodity indexes are supportive for prices, with Citigroup projecting inflows of $1.2 billion in sugar futures contracts this week [3]

Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is up +0.22 (+1.48%), reaching a 2-week high, while March London ICE white sugar 5 is up +4.30 (+1.01%), achieving a 1-week high [1] - The recent rally in sugar prices is attributed to the strengthening of the Brazilian real, which discourages export sales by Brazil's sugar producers [1] Production Increases - Indian sugar production from October to November increased by +43% year-on-year to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT), with 428 sugar mills crushing cane as of November 30, up from 376 a year ago [2] - Brazil's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 has been raised to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT, with a reported +8.7% year-on-year increase in sugar output in the first half of November [3] Sugar Surplus Forecasts - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, contrasting with a previous deficit forecast [4] - Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, up +1.2 MMT from a previous estimate [4] India’s Production Impact - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) has raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate for India to 31 MMT, reflecting an increase of +18.8% year-on-year, while also reducing the estimate for sugar used for ethanol production [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have shown recovery after early losses, supported by pre-weekend short covering and news from India's food ministry regarding ethanol pricing, which may lead to reduced sugar supplies as mills shift focus to ethanol production [1][3] Group 1: Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed up +12 (+0.82%), while March London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +4.10 (+0.98%) [1] - Sugar prices have been consolidating below 3.5-week highs reached on Wednesday, indicating a period of stabilization after recent fluctuations [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - India's food ministry announced a reduction in sugar export quotas for the 2025/26 season to 1.5 million metric tons (MMT), down from earlier estimates of 2 MMT, which is a response to reduced domestic supplies due to late rains [3] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, contrasting with a previous deficit forecast [4] - Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, raised its sugar production estimate for 2025/26 to 45 MMT, indicating a robust output that is bearish for prices [6] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The Brazilian real's weakness has limited sugar price increases, as it encourages export sales from Brazilian producers [2] - The outlook for record sugar output in Brazil has contributed to bearish sentiment in the market, with recent reports indicating significant increases in sugar production and crushing rates [5][6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices remained stable with March NY world sugar 11 closing unchanged and March London ICE white sugar 5 increasing by 0.10 (+0.02%) [1] - Recent price movements were influenced by India's food ministry considering raising ethanol prices, which may lead to reduced sugar supplies as mills shift focus to ethanol production [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, contrasting with a previous deficit forecast [4] Market Dynamics - Sugar prices have been supported by India's decision to allow mills to export 1.5 million MT of sugar in the 2025/26 season, lower than earlier estimates of 2 million MT [3] - The outlook for global sugar supplies has negatively impacted prices, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar hitting a 5-year low due to higher output in Brazil and expectations of a global surplus [5] - Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, raised its sugar production estimate for 2025/26 to 45 million MT, indicating a bearish trend for prices [6] Production Insights - Brazil's Center-South sugar output increased by 16.4% year-on-year in the second half of October, with a higher percentage of sugarcane being crushed for sugar compared to the previous year [6] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South through October rose by 1.6% year-on-year to 38.085 million MT, contributing to the overall increase in global sugar production [6]